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Two QB's

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Oct 4, 2019.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Give me your take on this:

    The Dolphins take two QB's in the 2020 draft.

    You only want to tank once, and you want to get the QB right, or at least, have the best chance possible of getting the QB right. Two QB's picks gives a better chance of landing on the next franchise QB. It's an extra pick, but after this year, and with the QB's available this year... do you do it?

    For example, if we pick #1 and #7 - we take Tua and Herbert, or whomever you prefer. Call it a rebuilding strategy where you're trying to build a long term winner. Unorthodox? Maybe. But if it works and you get a great, franchise QB... you can get the other players you need later on as you go, right?


    What's your take?

    Yes? No? Depends on the round?
     
  2. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    My choice is to take zero QB's in 2020. Use all of the picks to build up the best team around Rosen in the coming year as we possibly can. Then, if he isn't playing well after two years as a starter, draft one QB in 2021. However, I am always, always in favor of picking one quarterback, and committing to making him the man and seeing it through. QB competitions don't work, because you might have one guy who looks better in the short term but with a lower ceiling, but another who could be much better long term if he was just given time to work out the kinks early on.
     
  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    But doesn't that argument - about a guy looking better short term - already apply during the draft process? If you take only one you only get to see one, and he might be the guy with the low ceiling.
     
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  4. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I'm a firm believer of drafting a Quarterback every year until we find our guy if necessary. However, drafting two QB's in the top 10 would be taking things a bit too far in my opinion. Hopefully we do draft a QB with our first pick in April. After that, I'd honestly like to see us use the other two first round picks on the best players available that aren't quarterbacks. Now...If we're sitting in the sixth round with nothing better to do and a decent prospect at quarterback is still on the board, then yeah....Why not. Washington did it with Griffin and Cousins back in 2012.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  5. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Similar to the strategy Washington used with RG3 and Cousins. Unfortunately you will have 1/2 the time to evaluate each QB in game time environment. Essentially you will have to make the decision if your 1st pick is the guy by year 2, or you run the risk of not having time to really see the other QB on the field before you are forced to make a big financial decision. Unless you also want to play both QBs till one out right beats the other, which is problematic right from the start. There is also the problem of all of the massive holes in talent our team has, that you should be spending that draft capital on.

    Thanks to the talent level that we are at, and the talent that we can procure in one off season, I think you will have another pretty high draft pick next year if you believe you need another QB. This will give you a little more breathing room to evaluate and make a decision.
     
    resnor likes this.
  6. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This team has been gutted to where it's just an empty showroom. If you draft two good prospects to play behind a crappy line you may have some very talented guys running for their lives and not developing properly. The ideal situation for a young QB is what Marino saw, get drafted by a good team that had been to the SB recently and was ready to do it again.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  7. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I wouldn't take 2 in the 1st. But I would think about adding another guy in the mid-rounds with potential.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    My strategy would be to take a quarterback with the first overall pick, assuming that’s what the team will have, and use the other picks to trade back multiple times to accrue a larger than normal number of picks in several subsequent drafts. And I would continue to do that ad infinitum, picks permitting.

    These two years of picks have the potential to give the team a larger than normal number of picks for several subsequent years. And that’s important because it accomplishes two things: 1) it increases the margin for error in the draft, and 2) it increases the potential for a roster of good players who are making comparatively small salaries.

    The key in this league at the present time is to be able to let some players go in free agency when their first contracts expire, and replace them with good, recently drafted players who are making peanuts. If you can churn your roster in that manner, while having an elite quarterback, you can accomplish a dynasty. No other approach will permit that.
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I'd be livid if we did that, assuming of course that the 2nd QB was picked with a decently high pick. If you can't pick a franchise QB with the #1 pick when the tanking is done in large part for that purpose then you need to replace the GM. That second pick, especially if it's a top 10 pick is likely to be a very good starter and you can't just waste top 10 picks. Plan on using all other picks to build the rest of the team.

    Only way I'm OK with picking 2 QB's is if that 2nd QB is a low round pick (6th or worse).
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2019
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    If Rosen keeps playing like he's been playing, you won't need more than one season (even less really if he keeps making boneheaded decisions) to determine that he's at best a backup.

    No QB is suddenly going to develop the ability to play well in adverse conditions. That's talent, not surrounding cast. Every SB team needs a QB that can keep the team competitive even when the surrounding cast fails him, and there is literally NO evidence Rosen can do this. He won't need more than 12 more games to demonstrate this one way or the other.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  11. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I'm not really too concerned with the adverse conditions, because the team's number one focus should be on protecting the QB and putting him into the most advantageous situations possible. Barring massive calamity and injuries, a QB on a truly good team shouldn't need to fight through that, unless the front office has done a really poor job getting players around him.

    Peyton Manning had nine seasons where he was sacked 20 or fewer times in an entire year, and he wasn't exactly a mobile guy. Matt Ryan has had four seasons where he's been sacked 25 or fewer times, and only a handful where he's been sacked signifigantly more than 30.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Peyton Manning had one of the fastest releases in the NFL. And statistically speaking the highest correlation in passing stats you see when a QB goes from one team to another is sack%. In other words, low sack% is to a great degree determined by the QB. Same with Marino btw.. low sack% in large part due to his fast release.

    And "adverse conditions" includes playing from behind. EVERY great QB shows that ability and it's essential for any SB team to have a QB that can lead the team to victory in the 4th quarter, and Rosen so far shows nothing of the sort. Only in rare cases (e.g., Dilfer) can you win a SB with a QB that doesn't have this ability. Can't just focus on building a good surrounding cast for a QB. Have to try to get the right QB! And you don't waste a #1 pick on another position when there's so often a run on QB's in the draft. I mean.. you want to get your 1st choice at QB, not your 2nd or 3rd.
     
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  13. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    We’ve already spent a 2nd round pick on Rosen. I say we draft the best QB available with our top pick and then start building a good team around them. Let those two compete and best man wins.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Precisely, though realistically if Rosen doesn't prove he's our solution at QB this year he's not getting the opportunity in 2020. Conversely, if Rosen proves he's our solution at QB this year we won't have the #1 pick in 2020 and we won't pick a QB with our first pick.

    So at least in 2020 I don't think there will be a QB competition. If there is one in 2021 it means the tanking failed and we need a new GM.
     
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Or, it means that Lawrence was the target all along, that Rosen will start 2020 regardless, that we'll trade that #1 pick for 2021 picks, and that we'll trade those 2021 picks to move up to #1 overall. Meanwhile, all of 2020 picks will be filling in the trenches and other skill positions.

    That's still a one-year tank while giving Rosen two seasons to prove his worth.
     
  16. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    If we are going to pick a qb it needs to be second day... there isnt an Andrew Luck/Peyton Manning quarterback in this draft. There’s a ton of guys that could be starters in the league but nothing that checks all the boxes... theres no one at Kyler Murray or Mayfield’s caliber..

    the best college football player right now is Chase Young who has 8 sacks so far in 5 games. His hand always seem to find the ball much like Mack. He is the pick at #1.

    then we have a spot to fill at receiver and offensive line. Andrew Thomas from Georgia could be a LT we could draft, but if we want a mauler that can also move then Tristan Wirfs from Iowa is a guy we can pick.

    the third first round pick could be used on Devonta Smith or Henry Ruggs, whoever drops.
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Ross apparently approved tanking to pick a QB with the #1 pick in 2020:
    https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2...pparently-approved-2019-tank-back-in-january/
    So their target probably isn't in 2021. Besides, IF the target is 2021 then it is a 2-year tank because you can't expect to find a willing trading partner for the #1 pick if there's a very hot QB prospect and the team with the #1 pick needs a QB.
     
  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That story COULD be right but so much mis-information has leaked, I don't personally believe it. It would make more sense to grab a QB in 2020 but at the same time, if you think the generational QB isn't declaring until 2021...I would hope they'd have enough sense to adjust their plans accordingly.

    They've already threw our respect and dignity straight out the back door, so what difference does another season really make to get the right quarterback? I'd rather pass on drafting the next Tim Couch or JaMarcus Russel just because they're at the top of the board.
     
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  19. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I think that it is entirely contingent on your grading. I would look backward and forward.

    My pool of QBs would be:
    Mayfield
    Rosen
    Allen
    Jackson
    Haskins
    Murray
    Jones
    Lock
    Tua
    Herbert
    Fromm
    Love
    Lawrence
    Fields

    Where would Herbert, Tua, and Fromm rank on this list? Hypothetically, if Tua would be #1 and Herbert would be #3, it would make sense because you have acquired 2 of the 3 best QBS (according to the team's evaluation) in the last few years.

    I personally do not think that this will be the case. It is sooooo early in the process, but I would ballpark that my evaluation would put Tua somewhere in the upper middle of this list and Fromm and Herbert toward the bottom. Moreover, I still think that Rosen would be somewhere in the middle and may grade out slightly better or worse than Herbert and Fromm. At this moment, it feels like a no to me.

    Now this is where things would get interesting. I think Lawrence would be #1 on this list for me. If we drafted Tua, and finished with the worst record again, I would not even hesitate to draft Lawrence.
     
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