although he is correct as many fans will be pissed about this (if you were listening to the sick and big e radio show the other day you would know sick is still pissed about us drafting jason allen and names "x, y, and z" that are pro bowlers way after him) if we had a crystal ball in the front office this would not be an issue.

armando's point is valid yet null and void due to the fact that no one can predict the future or every team would draft a pro bowler in every round.

for me right about now it's about the excitement that we did get one of the better corners (two if you count S.Smith, which I will thanks) which also happened to be positions of need.

and if davis doesn't turn out to be a pro bowler but s.smith does? I will still count the draft a success. For me, bottom line - we need a good corner out of this draft. I hesitate to say great with any player unless it's a LT (that's Taylor, not Tomlinson) or dick butkus or someone like that.. but we need a good corner out of this draft.

 

First of all thats a hell of a typo for a professional journalist to make(but given ('mando's writtig style should anyone be suprised?)

Secondly one would think that if Davis is good he can be a probowl CB.

 

Being voted in the Pro Bowl is overrated anyways. If Vontae Davis makes plays for us and never makes the Pro Bowl, I'll be happy.

 

With the poor play we have had in the secondary over the last several years if Davis turns out to be just a "good" cornerback then he will be a great find for the Dolphins. He has just as much of a chance to be a successfull 1st round choice as do 31 other players taken in the first round. Thats just like a media type trolling for a story before the kid has even had a chance to attend training camp.

 

Not true. I did a bunch of statistical analysis on the draft last year.
Picks 1-4 have the best chances of turning into great players (about 30%)
Picks 5 to 15 have reasonable prospects (about 12%)
Picks 16+ have OK prospects (about 8%)

There was a consistent drop off in the chances of becoming a solid to great playoff the later in the round a player was picked, but the drop off after the first 4 was a cliff.

 

It would be interesting to see your statistical analysis based off of positions between those specific selections. I think that factors in because the more offensive linemen taken, the better chance of having that percentage higher in my opinion, as to if you take wide receivers and average them out, I'd say there's would be lower than offensive linemen.

 

The only position that stood out was QB with 1st round QBs getting far more of an opportunity to fail than any other position.

I ran it from the start of the common draft era through to 10 years ago as I was looking for the completed careers of players not whether someone starts contributing immediately or 2 or 3 years down the track.

If you PM me your email address I'll see if I can dig up the spreadsheet for you.

 

Here's the tabulated data on first round picks.

"Great" players I defined as those elected to the HoF or selected to 5+ probowls.
"busts" I defined as players with careers where they were a starter for 3 seasons or less.
"pro-bowlers" are players elected to at least one PB.
Average Career is the average number of seasons played as a starter.

Picks 1-4
Greats: 34
Pro-bowlers: 73
Busts: 20
Average Career: 7.9 seasons

Picks 5-8
Greats: 13
Pro-bowlers: 54
Busts: 37
Average Career: 6.4 seasons

Picks 9-12
Greats: 11
Pro-bowlers: 43
Busts: 38
Average Career: 5.9 seasons

Picks 13-16
Greats: 10
Pro-bowlers: 41
Busts: 44
Average Career: 5.7 seasons

Picks 17-20
Greats: 10
Pro-bowlers: 35
Busts: 45
Average Career: 5.2 seasons

Picks 21-24
Greats: 6
Pro-bowlers: 33
Busts: 50
Average Career: 3.0 seasons

Picks 25-28
Greats: 6
Pro-bowlers: 22
Busts: 63
Average Career: 4.4 seasons

Picks 29-32
Greats: 6
Pro-bowlers: 16
Busts: 65
Average Career: 3.9 seasons

The History of the 25th overall pick in the last 30 years:
Greats: 0
Probowlers: 4
Busts: 17
Average Career: 3.9 seasons.

The trouble is that the sample size isn't really big enough to get reliable data if you start cross referencing draft position and playing position.