With a grain of salt

 

Stopped reading right here. Arm strength is irrelevant. It's a fallback evaluation when you have no idea what to look for at the QB position. If you can throw the ball 10 yards with reasonable velocity then that's all you need in the post-Bill Walsh NFL.

 

What I like about this offense is 1, that it's an offense that was built from scratch, and 2, we learned how to execute and move the ball without a Brandon Marshall talent on the field...So it's not like we were bad and were hoping for the one player to fix it,{like the jet's} were just adding a special talent, so the offense and the talent running it, now has more room to operate and display their talent, everything should be easier for them to get much better.

 

Im certainly pumped for this year. Its been three years in the making now for sparano/ireland/parcells and i think starting this year we will be seeing the results, consistently. We may not reach the big game this season but this is the season we start to truly contend by making the playoffs and getting our first playoff win in a looooonng time.

 

Nice write up. I don't agree with every thing they said but it was decently (not perfectly) researched and made some reasonable conclusions. Obviously, like any other prediction it's not worth much. But I do find reasoned analysis like this to be more valuable and enjoyable to read than most of the drivel that's out there.

 

Agreed. It's this same school of thought that rates Jamarcus Russell the best thing since sliced bread on NFL draft night.

 

In the modern NFL, 20 yards is considered a deep pass. Pennington is more than capable of completing a 20 yard pass. Hell, he threw deeper than that a surprising amount of times in 2008.

But more to the point, Pennington's 2008 YPA was 7.30. Henne's 2009 YPA was 6.03. Noodle arm Pennington threw deeper than cannon arm Henne, and Pennington won more games in 2008 than Henne did in 2009.

So yeah, arm strength is irrelevant. It's a fallback evaluation that talking heads use when they have no idea what to say about a QB. JaMarcus Russell has amazing arm strength: he's now sitting in prison for mixing up purple drank.

 

I disagree. You don't need the strongest arm in the world but you need some strength. In our playoff lost to the Ravens, Ed Reed was about 15 yards away from where he caught the ball, from where he was when Pennington let go of the ball. Chad has NO arm strength and it hurt us. He had to lob everything that was over 15 yards and you can't do that in the NFL.

 

Most passes don't travel 15 yards in the first place.

 

This would be an appropriate conclusion only if JaMarcus Russell was the only person to ever play QB in the NFL. But you can go through history and see a list of championship winners who didn't have great arm strength, and guys who never won a ring who had great arm strength.

Just as an example, Dan Marino had better arm strength than Joe Montana. Joe Montana has the rings. Philip Rivers has better arm strength than Tom Brady. Tom Brady has the rings.

Arm strength is just not relevant. The NFL doesn't feature the deep vertical pass anymore.

It's not nearly as complicated as you say, because WCO principles tend to dominate modern NFL offenses. Short drops, quick reads, fast releases. That's why intelligent QBs are so much more successful than physical freak QBs: you've got to be able to mentally process the play, and the plays as designed aren't very demanding in terms of arm strength.

Just to illustrate, Peyton Manning, the contemporary demigod of rocket arm physics, has a career YPA of 7.7. Over his career, he attempted to throw the ball a mere 0.4 yards further than Chad Pennington attempted in 2008. So much for the prevalence of firing passes downfield.

 

You're right. But the ones that do, can't be lobbed.

 

Dan did have a stronger arm than Joe, BUT Joe didn't have a noodle arm either. Joe Montana didn't have a gun, but he could still make all the throws. Let's not get to the point where we are saying that the strongest arm in football wins. Not true at all. But you still need arm strength to make the throws. Chad Pennington doesn't have that. Give me Chad Pennington with Chad Henne arm and we are all set. Pennington doesn't have the arm to play in the NFL anymore. It is what it is.

 

Good read, as was said - better than a lot of stuff that is prevalent this time of year. Don't agree with all of it, nor disagree with most. Thanks for the link, we're starved for this kind of reading now. :up:

 

speculation & idle banter
when the rubber meets the road
none of this puts a point on the board

 

True, however the defense must be aware that a pass can be completed behind them.

Where you are erring is in mixing two offensive concepts Des, one is a touch/timing concept, the other is really based on physical talent ie, the Wr beats the Cb in man coverage deep down the field and the Qb has the arm to make the throw away from the Safety in a area only the Wr can make the play.

Penny can and did complete deep passes, however they were down the seam of the field, a much easier throw to make than one outside of the hashes and deep down the field as if the ball is lolipopped to the Wr, the Safety or Cb can simply undercut the route and pick the ball off.

 

It's true.

You'd have a point here only if I was solely arguing arm strength as the only determination of QB success. My point is that it's irrelevant. Were arm strength at all a factor in QB success, then you'd see Super Bowls dominated by strong-armed passers and career YPAs in the double digits. Instead, you can go down the list of successful QBs and see guys with strong arms and guys with not very strong arms. There's no link between QB success and QB arm strength.

Yes, and Pennington throws those passes just fine.

Pretty much every offense outside of Oakland incorporates some element of the WCO even if they don't directly descend from Bill Walsh's playbook.

Yes, you can. That's what the stat refers to: the average amount of yards attempted per pass.

 

Major stretch indeed.

Tell that to Dan Marino, John Elway, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, etc. that arm strength is irrelevant.

I most certainly is relevant.

Just the threat of a QB that can throw deep once a game and connect is enough to loosen up a secondary. Desides talks about the 15 and 20 yard passes as well. Even on routes such as those arm strength absolutely comes into play. It dictates how focused DB's have to be on coverage and how they play the WR. Pennington's arm left DB's almost completely free from worrying about deep parts of the field, to sit on short routes and to position themselves for turnover opportunities rather than just worrying about coverage. You get a weak armed QB throwing an out and a DB is thinking INT rather than just break up this pass.

Don't tell me arm strength does not matter.

 

I disagree on rivers over Brady..I believe rivers 's arm is weaker than most think, i've been sayin it since he came into the league that his arm was deceptively weak, that same arm got exposed against the jets..

besides his arm, he must have space in front of him to get anything on his velocity, basically he has no what I call, arm athleticism, cannot throw the ball from different angles..

Penny got exposed against the ravens, they bracketed us, and he could'nt get the ball past the hash marks because there was too much pressure coming up the middle before he could get his feet and windup set.

 

Actually, what I like about this offense this year, is that it will be built around Hennes' strengths, not around Pennys' strengths....Last season, Henne was put in after Penny went down. This year, it's his offense. Now, some adjustments were made once he took over, but the base of the offense was built around Penny's short game (and our lackluster deep threats)...this year should be different, even if we don't truly have a deep threat any longer (with Ginn gone)....

 

Yes, you can. That's what the stat refers to: the average amount of yards attempted per pass.[/QUOTE]

The back and forth banter makes for great off season time fillers, but the off season might be a good time to brush up on your nfl stats Despite. YPA is equal to Yards Per Attempt, how many yards the team averages every time the qb lets it go, not how far down the field he throws the ball... although your rendition of the stat did prove worth a smile.

 

I think most guys believe its (arm strength) overrated but certainly not irrelevant.

 

I'm with you here. That's how I feel about it.

 

.......and this is what they have to say about the Jets

"....unquestionably one of the Super Bowl favorites."
http://walterfootball.com/offseason2010nyj.php

There are a lot of truly fruity articles out there right now due to the lack of real team news. Next thing you know they will be picking the Bills for the Superbowl$#*&^%@.

I just hope that the players who read this stuff don't get to far ahead of themselves. There is a tremendous penance to be paid in the NFL for overconfident and cocky teams. They usually have their hands in the Doritos during the play-offs.

 

Two great points in this post. To me the biggest gauge for a QB is throwing the deep out. Pennington struggled before throwing to that route and now well it can't really be better can it? Henne does make all the throws and will only get better with time. He can indeed throw the deep out and also has the arm strength to squeeze in the much needed sideliner with WR's coming back to the ball by design.

GM you have great insight. Always enjoy reading your stuff. :up:

 

Yeah all those bums with no arms like Manning, Brees and Brady that have been winning Superbowls.....yeah arm strength is irrelevant. You must not have watched Penningtons last playoff game versus the Ravens. We had no chance to win that game because all the Ravens had to cover was the frontline and 10 yards upfield.

Arm strength matters, it isn't a fall back evaluation. There are plenty of examples of strong arm Qbs that aren't worth a pile of spit, some GMs fall in love with an arm, the head and accuracy are more important but you still have to stretch the field to beat really good defenses. The NFL has changed, the rules favor the passing game, both long and short it is important to be able to have arm strength to a certain point. Pennington is on the edge of what is acceptable arm strength at the NFL level. Comparing a guy with a decade's worth of starts YPA to a guy in his first year starting YPA is a bit silly.

 

I've always felt there was two ways to characterize arm strength. Straight line arm strength, which is basically all power in the arm, and arm strength outside the hashes, which GMJohnson referred to. Arm strength, the one that most TV analysts hype up, in a straight line is overrated one, which Zeke was pointing out. Outside the hashes is extremely important, which is why I don't think its fair to say that arm strength in general is not relevant.

 

You're a contender, I'm a contender, we all scream for ice cream!

 

I respect Chad Pennington and there's even a part of me that believes that with his ball placement and ability to play superb situational football, with Brandon Marshall, Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess and Brian Hartline catching passes and in particular Marshall, Bess and Hartline showing some ability after the catch, that a healthy Pennington wouldn't get us the best in-season results...at least until Chad Henne proves himself.

BUT, arm strength is not in any way irrelevant. When it comes to playoff football, Chad Pennington wins a title one way and one way only...with an incredible defense backing him up.

 

I wouldn't go so far as to say arm strength is "irrelevant", but I do believe it's pretty low on the list of important factors. I think you need a minimum amount of arm strength and CP had enough. Once you have that minimum level then I would list it behind:

Accuracy
Decision making
Timing/Anticipation
Pocket awareness
Pocket mobility
Leadership.

Basically, I rank it as about the 7th most important attribute about even with running ability. Now obviously, arm strength can compensate for deficiencies in other areas. For example, you need less timing or anticipation if you can get it there in an instant. But I find that once you have that minimum NFL level of arm strength then the other six attributes listed above are more determinate of success.

 

Exactly, arm strength does not matter so much for distance desides as it does for VELOCITY. How FAST does the ball get from A to B is what matters, not how far apart A and B are.

Dan is the greatest ever because his footballs teleported to the reciever.