We need a Qb? No, we need a Feature Back with 280 carries at least

JJ beat the Seahawks.

 

JJ also beat the Bills one year. Remember the game that ended when Trace crushed Flutie for a sack, he fumbled and we recovered? Then JJ drew the ire of Flutie after the game for stomping on a box of Flutie Flakes. Flutie said the cereal was started to raise money for his sick son, so it was if JJ was stomping on his son. Something like that.

 

Yup. Who could forget Marino's last game. And if anybody tries to tell me that wasn't his last game, I've got a nice bottle of Repressitol I can share with you.

 

I was there, one of my favorite experiences of my life.

 

I was there as well, sat through the whole game and watch the sprinklers spray water on the Defense...

memories...

On a side note I am working on capturing data on Henne and Ryan...

This data will depict some of the QB performance when his RB or RB by commitee fails to run 60 yds per game...

 

neat, I look forward to it. Hopefully it will make me feel better about Henne

 

OK as I promise I did a little research, some might not like the numbers but they are the facts as shown on the stats sheets for 2008-2010...

Now I change the data gathering based on Padre's thread, that being carries and not yards gained on ground. Anyone can say that the data is screwed because I picked the numbers to formulate my theory, but the truth in the matter is that I picked a number that is formaly known by many as a good number to judge by (I hope)...

I picked 21+ carries per game as my data gathering point. Many believe that 25+ carries per game is a game that controls TOP so I picked 21+ and anything below that was my data points to gather QB performance (Win or Loose)...and the catch is that since Ronnie and Ricky are a commitee, than that is what I jusged not only the Dolphin's but also that Falcons on...

Ryan and the Falcons had in 2008 had 4 games where their RB's ran for less than 21 carries. Ryan had 81 comp, 151 attempts (54% comp), 908 yds (6.0 YPA), 3 TD, 5 INTs, and 64.6 QBR...

Ryan and the Falcons in 2009 had 4 games where their RB's had less than 21 carries. Ryan had 72 comp, 127 attempts (57% comp), 808 yds (6.3 YPA), 4 TD, 6 INT and a 66 QBR...

In 2010 the Falcons had 4 games where their RB's ran for less than 21 carries. Ryan had 90 comp, 150 attempts (60% comp), 900 yds (6.0 YPA), 7 TD, 3 INT and a 84 QBR...


Henne and the Fins in 2009 had 5 games where their RB's ran for less than 21 carries. Henne had 111 comp, 176 attempts (63% comp), 1002 yds (5.7 YPA), 4 TD, 8 INT, and a 67 QBR...

Henne and the Fins in 2010 had 5 games where their RB's ran for less than 21 carries. Henne had 122 comp, 197 attempts (62%), 1432 yds (7.3 YPA), 6 TD, 9 INT and a 75 QBR...

So in total for Ryan, as a starter, in his career (3 years) when his RB's have ran for less than 21 carries:
243 comp, 428 attempts (56.7% comp), 2616 yds (6.1 YPA), 14 TD, 14 INT and 72 QBR...

Henne totaled, as a starter, is his 2 years career when the Fin's RB's ran for less than 21 carries:
233 comp, 373 attempts (62% comp), 2434 yds (6.5 YPA), 10 TD, 17 INT and a 71 QBR...

There is this simple data... opinions???

 

Only nine backs in the entire league had 280 carries last year.

Only three of those backs went to the playoffs.

 

The disparity in overall QB rating vs the rating when the RBs had less than 21 carries is much greater for Ryan.

Would you mind doing the last 3 years for Orton? Since some forum members want badly for us to trade for him.

 

So that means if a team has a back with 280 carries, they got a 33% chance of making the playoff.

 

If I go by development then I would throw out Ryan's third year where there was noticeable improvement.

At least in the situation where the running game is underutilized Henne is right up there with the development of Ryan. Not saying that it means that Henne will be a good quarterback in this league, however it does make me feel a little better about Henne. Having a 7.3 YPA during his 2nd year is pretty good in that situation.

 

It was 62-7 remember..... the day the sprinklers went off in Jacksonville.

 

Maybe I need to think my idea of sitting a guy a year. Hypothetically if Henne and Ryan were of decently equal talent level, then having Henne sit a year did not do much to help him.

Or maybe it did. It is why Henne's stats are just a little better than Ryan's stats in those situations.

 

I told you about ''Good will hunting''...The man don't fu$# around..

That qbr rating?, shoot, I would bet if we used a little common sense and a toe or 2, Henne's QBR would be higher..

 

I am not a fan of fudging the numbers, because it generally gets people the result they want. Look at Marinefans use of the Henne's being 30th in long distant throws. Yes if you break down each stat, in most of them he is middle of the pack, however still on the whole he is 30th.

If you want to fudge the numbers you could make Barry Sanders look like a bad runningback or Rob Johnson look like a good quarterback.

 

Dup, I rarely look at numbers or stats, but it seems to be pretty popular round here, I think its a nice stat though, basically they have the same QBR rating over a 3 year span when their backs get under 21 carries..

It makes sense, he was acccurate with the football, and didn't make a lot of mistakes thru 9 games last year, and was promising the year before that, at least on par with some players that were taken way higher than him, and that have better run games and coaching than we did. I think the stat should make us take a closer look at the circumstances and variables that directly affect QB performance.

 

Statistically Turner had a pretty good year in 2009. YPC was up and 10 TD's in only 11 games was pretty damn good.

 

One thing for sure Turner know how to get into the endzone and is a great north-south runner... not taking anything away from him...

In 2009 he actually played in 11 games, but... He only had one (1) carry for 7 yards in his 11th...

He had scored 6 points per game...
He had 4 games of 100+ yards (40% of games played) not including his 11th game...
He had 5 games of less than 65 yards (or 50% of games played)...
He had 6 games of less than 4.0 YPC average (or 60% of games played)...

In 2010 he averaged 6.4 points per game...
He had 7 games of 100+ yards (44% of games played) in 16 games...
He had 5 games of less than 65 yards (31% of games played)...
He had 9 games of less than 4.0 YPC average (or 56% of games played)...

 

Well Orton's name was ran around so I did some checking and this is what came out...

I picked 3 years of his 5 years career, not picking a year at random, but trying to see if there was improvement over time, and what I have seen is real interesting to say the least... let's look...

I tracked 43 games as a startr for three years, that is his rookie (2005), his last year in Chicago (2008) and this past season (2010)...

He combined stats for 43 games started when his RB's did not run the ball for 21+ carries per game is:

284 comp, 496 attempts (57% comp), 3325 yards (6.7 YPA), 14 TD, 10 INT and a 79 QBR...

Let us break it down by season:

2005 (15 games)- He had 3 games where his RB's did not run for 21+ carries. He had 44 comp, 89 attempts (49% comp), 489 yds (5.5 YPA), 1 TD, 3 INT and a 56 QBR...

2008 (15 games )- He had 3 games where his RB's did not run for 21+ carries. He had 43 comp, 80 attempts (54% comp), 364 yards (4.5 YPA), 2 INT and a 55 QBR...

2010 (13 games)- He had 8 games where his RB's did not run for 21+ carries. He had 197 comp, 327 attempts (60% comp), 2472 yards (7.6 YPA), 13 TD, 5 INT and a 91 QBR...

So if anyone is interested in knowing what were the numbers when his RB's ran for at least 21 carries, here they are...

96 comp, 171 attempts (56% comp), 1181 yards (6.9 YPA), 7 TD, 4 INT and an 82 QBR...

For what ever is worth these are the numbers...