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Week 17 Dolphins @ Titans

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Dec 29, 2021.

  1. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Maybe Brian just found all the plays the line did bad at.

    Holy **** that 3rd and 1 is embarrassing. 3 lineman on the ground, Bud Dupree just gets through.
     
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  2. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Tennessee went from one of the worst defenses last year to one of the best this year.

    They absolutely dominated at every phase of the game.
     
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  3. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    A.J. Brown: Ryan Tannehill “wanted to go put it on” the Dolphins

    “All we ever heard Ryan say anything about the Dolphins was the last little drive,” Brown said, via Nick Gray of the Tennessean. “He wanted to go put it on them.


    Brown laughed and said he “can’t tell you what he said” when asked about what Tannehill might have said about beating Miami, but there’s little doubt that Tannehill got whatever satisfaction he was seeking in a blowout win that put the Titans on track to be the top seed in the AFC.
     
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  4. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    He can say what he wants, he's still bang average and always will be.
     
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  5. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Cool. He is still better than Tua though...
     
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  6. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    He also will be 34 and been in the league for 11 years.
     
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  7. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    That's a pretty good career for a QB that some say is "no more than average at best"
     
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  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You know, I know of another “game manager” as you phrase it who like Tagovailoa won a National Championship and when he was drafted, averaged only 7.2 yards per attempt, had only a 63% completion percentage, only threw 273 touchdowns over his career and threw for only 40,551 yards and yet, won 4 Super Bowls.

    Like everyone here, I’m extremely disappointed in last week’s performance by Tua AND the TEAM but how can you have 2 different quarterbacks with virtually identical stats going into last week’s game with one team a champion practically year after year and the other getting the brakes beat off of them?
     
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  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Watching this video…Jesus H Christ on a popsicle stick…the offensive line is just THAT terrible!!!

    How in God’s name does Jackson get beat THAT badly?
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Holy crap! You're calling Joe Montana a "game manager"??

    Joe Montana was an elite QB and statistically the 2nd most efficient QB in NFL history with a career z-score of 1.56. You know what that translates to in today's game? An AVERAGE passer rating per year of 107.3, in 2021 numbers!

    You HAVE to adjust stats for era or you get ridiculous comparisons like the one you just gave us. Why not go all the way and say Marino's career 86.4 rating is worse than league average today so he must have been a below average QB. Joe Montana = game manager LOLOL. I wish we had a "game manager" like that.
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2022
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  11. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    I'm gonna guess you're talking about Joe Montana? I'm gonna disagree that he was just a game manager. The fact that you're comparing Tua to Joe Montana is crazy
     
  12. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You know, unless something has changed since 1984…

    10 yards then is still 10 yards today
    If a receiver caught a thrown ball then, it was called a completion
    If a receiver didn’t catch it, it was called an incompletion
    If it was caught in the Endzone then, it was called a touchdown
    If it was caught by the opposing team, it was called an interception
    The offense still had to move the ball 10 yards in 4 downs to maintain possession
    There were four 15 minute quarters then, just like today
    There were 11 players on the offensive side of the ball
    There were 11 players on the defensive side of the ball.

    These are still the same concepts of the game today.

    You bring up Montana and Marino. The 49ers ran the west coast offense…SHORT passes to open up running lanes for receivers. Miami’s offense was mid to long range passes stretching the field.

    One offense required the quarterback to possess incredible arm strength and accuracy, the other one required managing to get the ball to the quick open receiver with short passes.

    One of these quarterbacks sounds like Tagovailoa. One does not. The difference however, is one had an elite TEAM, the other does not.

    Sorry Brad, you can break out your slide rule, apply your MIT algebraic equations, set curves and what have you but the basic game of football is still the same today as it was in 1984. The difference between then and now is that era focused on building solid and elite teams where this era focuses on nothing but quarterbacks…rolling the dice and trying for the hard 6 before crapping out.
     
  13. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Just to have some fun, please tell me WHY it’s crazy.
     
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Lmao

    Listen, the dude just keeps winning in Tennessee, and you can't say it's all about the run game. Three straight years in the playoffs plus elite play from Tannehill, yet the narrative remains he's average.

    While people on here want to tell me that Tua has elite potential.

    At least Tannehill is big, cannon arm, and can take a beating.
     
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  15. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Are you comparing Tua now to Joe Montana's entire career? Because that would be ridiculous. Anyway, I had to check and Montana attempted 23 passes his rookie season, so we can throw that one out the window. In his 3rd year, 2nd as the starter, he led San Fran to the Super Bowl and of course won. He was a clutch QB and elevated those around him, a true leader. In tuas 2 years, Tua has had two chances to win games with a playoff spot on the line (the bills last year and last Sunday) he failed MISERABLY both times. He wasnt clutch, didn't elevate the players around him. Quick question, between second year Tua and second year Montana, which one would you want to be your QB in the conference championship game?
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Rules have changed over time. The rule changes in 1978 had a tremendous impact on the game and basically started the league down the path of becoming a passing league more than a running league. Not sure how old you are but a lot of what you say actually makes sense if we're talking about early 1970's football. They don't today. Let me show you a graph of league average passer rating over time. You'll see why it's necessary to adjust for era.

    How do you explain this if the nature of the game hasn't changed?
    League average passer rating.png
     
  17. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    This week's mic'd up is very short for some reason. :whistling:
     
  18. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Bare with me here canez…and try follow WHERE I’m going with all of this…

    The 1984 49ers had ***TEN*** Pro Bowlers on their roster, 3 of which were offensive linemen (multiple pro bowls and 1st all team selectees), 1 running back and 5 defensive backs…as well as quarterback Joe Montana.

    Who are the Dolphins’ Pro Bowl linemen?
    Who is the Dolphins’ Pro Bowl running back?

    The Dolphins have only ONE defensive Pro Bowler…which does NOTHING to help Tagovailoa on the offensive side of the ball.

    Do you see WHERE I’m going here? Montana, whom I think was a GREAT quarterback had GREAT talent around him to make him great. The Dolphins have NO Pro Bowl talent on the offensive side of the ball (though I think Waddle should have been selected).

    When you look at the actual game of both Montana and Tagovailoa, there really isn’t much difference. Both are/were accurate short distance passers putting up virtually the same volume of passes/completion percentages. The main difference is the utter lack of talent on the Dolphins offensive side of the ball.

    Your reply to my assertion was rooted in unquantifiable assertions of Montana’s character and in general assessment of talent. Keep in mind my feelings on Montana’s talent but my reply is rooted in undisputed, tangible, quantifiable facts that are measurable.

    Can’t argue against facts. They win out every time.
     
  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Has the NFL become more of a passing game offensively? Yes it has however, that dispels nothing on the actual facts that I just illustrated in the post above.

    A TEAM with 10 Pro Bowlers are going to vye for the Super Bowl 9 times out of 10. A TEAM with a single Pro Bowl selectee will be watching the playoffs at home 9 times out of 10…and I don’t care WHO your quarterback is
     
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  20. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    And if we had that caliber of talent, it still doesnt mean that tua will be the answer. In 2002, we had a good o-line, the best running game and some pretty good receivers. Chambers, McKnight and McMichael. No pro bowlers there other than Ricky but very solid. Then there was the QB. If Marino had that, we would have won a Super Bowl. Even with good to great individual units, you still need a good QB. I just don't think tua is a good QB and no matter what we surround him with, it won't matter
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It shows why it's necessary to adjust stats for era. You didn't do that which is why the stats you quoted from Montana look similar to merely average QBs today. Can't compare across eras without adjusting stats. That's not true for all stats, but it is true for most passing stats. One type of stat you don't need adjustment for is win%, and points scored/allowed requires only minor adjustment.

    Not sure how I can break this broken record of yours, but let me try again. I mean there has to be SOME switch in your brain I can flip to stop this lol.

    No one disputes the rest of the team is important. NO ONE. That's a total strawman and it's always been a strawman. All those examples you keep pointing out are completely irrelevant to the argument. You seem to think that when someone says the QB is important that therefore the rest of the team is not important. Why do you keep making this illogical deduction? No one's saying that. The argument is that the QB is important: you need a very good QB if you want to be consistently good.

    The reason I keep saying you consistently undervalue the QB is because you've consistently said an average QB on an otherwise good team is good enough. Not in this passing league. In the early 1970's yes, not today.

    btw.. I did find an example of a team that was a consistent winner over a decade without a good QB: Pittsburgh Steelers in the 1990s. From 1992 to 2002 they made the playoffs 8 out of 11 times. Of course they didn't win the SB until they had Roethlisberger. But right now that's the only example I can find where a team without a good QB consistently made the playoffs over a decade or so. Otherwise, you want a consistent winner? You need a very good QB.
     
  22. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    A thought occurred to me…

    With all of your “adjusted for era” stats argument, I wonder something…

    Are you saying the 2021 Miami Dolphins could have defeated the 1984 San Francisco 49ers?
     
  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're so close to getting his point!

    He's saying that the rest of the team is ultimately represented in QB rating! If you have a low 90's rated passer on a bad team, then maybe he's a high 90's or low 100's passer on a good team. The "very good" QB you're claiming teams to need, a lot of teams already have that and you just don't realize it because the stats aren't there.

    Again, you said that you'd be pleased with Tua if he was around 95 QB rating this season. He was there and a few tough games dropped him down. But what happens when the line is improved? And we actually have a run game? Surely you can understand where I'm going with this. In a "great offense", Tua would be a "very good" quarterback.
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not at all. z-scores tell you how good someone (or a team) was relative to the competition. It doesn't tell you on an absolute scale how good the competition is, and that's what you would need to know to answer your question.

    Personally, I think that talent level today is better than back then, but it wouldn't make up for the difference in having trained under different rules. I think the best teams today if transported back to the 1980's with no time to adjust to the different rules would lose to the best teams back then, and vice versa. That's just opinion though. No way to answer this with the stats we have.
     
  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I just gave you examples of how you can't make that argument by pointing out the massive difference in passer rating and offensive production when QBs change teams, like with Peyton Manning. He leaves the Colts and a 10-6 team goes immediately down to 2-14, and passer rating goes from 91.6 with Manning in 2010 to a combined 72.2 rating with 3 different QBs in 2011. In Denver, team passer rating was 73.5 the year before Manning and with Manning the year afterwards it's 105.8. This is seen over and over with "elite" QBs.

    You can't explain those kinds of stats by saying it's the rest of the team that is most responsible for passer rating. And the NFL knows this. It's precisely why there's such a high premium on QBs. They get paid the most, and they're the most sought after in FA and in the draft.
     
  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In that specific instance, I agree...but in that specific instance you're talking about one of the greatest QB's of all time as well. And I never said the rest of the team is "most responsible" for passer rating, I said that they played a part in it with the specific example you used with Tua (he's good if he hits 95, he's not quite on track to be above average if he's closer to 90).

    If Tua ends the year at a 90-94ish QB rating playing behind one of the worst historic offensive lines, no run game and only 1 or 2 competent receivers, then it's not a stretch to say he'd be a 95+ QB as those things improve. That's my only point here and I'm using your metrics that you've shared week after week as the baseline.

    The idea of QB rating is to predict future performance- so why would you ignore the other issues on offense as part of that prediction? That's all the other commenters have been trying to say.
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You said I'm getting close to TDK's point. That implies the rest of the team is "most responsible" (it's the only way you'd ever get to saying Montana is a "game manager"). Be careful with what you say.

    And it doesn't matter if we use Manning or not, you see the effect with lots of other elite QBs. Winston had an 84.3 rating in 2019 with Tampa while Brady had a 102.2 the year after, Pittsburgh in 2003 had a 76.4 team passer rating (4 QBs) while Roethlisberger in his rookie year in 2004 posts a 98.1 The examples are everywhere, and the reason you want to look at elite QBs is because that's where the effect is largest, i.e., it's easiest to see how big the effect can be.

    As far as Tua, I myself already said you can expect several points improvement in passer rating by improving the rest of the team, so when he was at 94 or so I was fine with it because with improvement in the rest of the team I could see that going to 97, and with further improvement in Tua himself I could see a 100 in year 3. Now though he's at 89.8 with one game left to go. You shouldn't keep a QB around that in year 3 isn't close to that 100 rating level for 2021 league average, and now it's obviously looking a lot less likely. You don't lower the threshold just because of hope the guy will someday make it.

    As far as predicting future performance, it's actually quite hard to incorporate all the other possible variables. That's what ESPN found out when they created QBR. Try to put in everything that theoretically could matter and you improve prediction by only a minor amount. Problem is they had to make so many subjective assumptions about how much each and everything could matter, making their "stat" unjustifiable if you want an objective measure (note they still keep it black box). The best predictors for QBs tend to be the QB's own rating with large sample size. And even then predictions aren't that good.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2022
  28. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Interesting…I guess a 12 yard touchdown pass from Montana to Clark was worth more points in 1984 than a 12 yard touchdown pass from Tagovailoa to Parker in 2021.
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No, just more difficult given the rules, and thus more valuable when comparing across eras.
     
  30. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Short passes in 1984 were no more difficult to complete than they are in 2021/2022. Quit the “era” comparison nonsense. It’s getting quite boring
     
  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    So you don't think the rule changes had any effect on the difficulty of completing passes. Just looking up rule changes in the mid 90's to 2010 this is what I found:
    • In 1995 defensive players could no longer unnecessarily and violently throw down the QB and land on him with most of their weight when the QB was throwing a pass or just after the throw.
    • In 2002 they eliminated helmet-to-helmet hits on the QB after change of possession.
    • In 2006 low hits on the QB were prohibited when a rushing defender has the opportunity to avoid contact.
    • In 2007 a block below the waist against an eligible receiver became a 15 yard penalty instead of a 5 yard penalty.
    • In 2009 they made it an illegal hit on a defenseless receiver if the initial force of the contact by the defender's helmet, forearm or shoulder is to the head or neck area
    • In 2009 they made it illegal for a defender to roll or lunge and forcibly hit the QB in the knee area
    Not going to do comprehensive research on this, but it's patently clear the NFL is deliberately making it easier to complete passes. If you can't see that you don't understand what the NFL is doing. They're making these incremental changes to the game to make it more of a passing league. And it's borne out in the statistics as I showed you. The NFL thinks this makes games more exciting so yeah they're making passing easier. That's obvious, which is why it's absolutely necessary to adjust certain stats by era.
     

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