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Week 3 | Dolphins @ Cowboys | Gameday Thread

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by thetylernator, Sep 22, 2019.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Uhh.. don't you think you should actually CHECK to see whether your claims are accurate before making them? This isn't the first time you've done that. Here's the play-by-play:
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=401127921

    You said that "Dallas ran the ball on every drive while we rarely did". That is provably false because we ran the ball on EVERY drive.

    And regarding the claim you've made in the past that winning teams run the ball more early on, note that both the Cowboys and Dolphins threw the ball more in the 1st quarter: 11 pass plays to 7 run plays for Dallas vs. 11 pass plays to 6 run plays for the Dolphins. The huge difference in overall rushing attempts by the end of the game was primarily due to the 4th quarter (as is generally the case).
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2019
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  2. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Am I really going to have to do this again? Tell you what, I’ll do it when I get home and break down each drive play by play yet again.

    You guys keep touting how irrelevant running the ball is and I’ll show you a losing team every time.
     
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  3. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I dont think running is irrelevant, but I think it is absolutely irrelevant if you cant gain any yardage. In fact it becomes detrimental when you're constantly in 3rd and long.

    The biggest thing the run does is further open up the pass, which it wont do if you're constantly hitting a wall.
     
  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    That's not necessarily true. If you're continuously hitting a wall as you state, it opens up the opportunity for a play action pass. The defense is lined up to stop that run, committing to stopping the run, leaving the secondary open for one on one coverage. Play action pass is the biggest opportunity for BIG pass plays, but you can't get those plays if you don't COMMIT to the run.
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You could commit to the run, and if your running game is being stopped by the opponent’s base defense, there is no need for them to bite on play-action and potentially surrender big passing plays.

    Likewise, you could show very little commitment to the run game, and have let’s say two plays out of the 25 or so run in one half of football, and if those two plays are both 80-yard touchdown runs, obviously the opposing defense is going to have to pay mind to your running game, which would open up your passing game.

    All this is to say that it’s not rushing attempts or run-pass ratio that matters, but yards per carry.
     
  6. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Regardless of play call or scheme, this OL isn’t going to allow this offense to do much this year. The reality is it wasn’t going to be a good OL with Tunsil and is now the worst in the NFL by a long shot. Outside of identifying a franchise QB and finding a pass rush, this is one of our top priorities.
     
  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, our line looked pretty good yesterday until our LT went down. We couldn't run much but I'm personally impressed how far the line has come this month basically on coaching alone. It could actually be an okay line by week 16 and that would be huge as we upgrade in the years to come....getting that core base of linemen that play well together is critical for long-term success.
     
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  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    First of all, cbrad, Knight said "ran the ball and ran it EFFECTIVELY.". It wasn't simply "ran the ball."

    Second, wasn't it cbrad who showed that effective play action passing has nothing to do with how often you run it. Again, another thing that people always say on here, but it's been proven wrong. Running the ball a ton doesn't make PA more effective, and not running at all doesn't make PA less effective.
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Read post #161 again and tell me where I didn't put things in proper context. First, I attacked this false claim:
    We ran the ball on EVERY drive so what The Dark Knight said was provably false.

    Then I said "And regarding the claim you've made in the past that winning teams run the ball more early on", etc.. I made it clear this was a statement he made not in the post I quoted but in the past. And notice that I didn't attack the part about "run the ball effectively" so I don't think your criticism is warranted in this case.

    Having said that, we all know what he means. He actually DOES mean to simply "run the ball". He's stated over and over and over again, despite any and all amount of counter-evidence, that it's rushing attempts that matter.
     
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  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Go read what you wrote in post 161...that is the post I was responding to. In his post that YOU quoted in 161, he specifically says:

    So yes, you only responded to part of what he said. Now you want to talk about old posts of his? Have fun, I was only referencing what you actually quoted.
     
  11. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Dude.. READ post #161. When I said he should check his claims I link to a page and then what is the next sentence?

    Sorry man, I didn't say anything inaccurate. You need to read what I wrote.
     
  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yet he seemed to clarify what he said, no? I didn't make up the quote I put in my last post.

    Post 161 starts with YOU quoting Knight. In that quote, he specifically states that they ran it and ran it effectively. You then respond to his post with a link to ESPN, and argue that we ran it on every drive so it's not about that. But he said it was the running AND doing it effectively.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    You didn't read my post carefully. That's not my problem, that's yours. And since when does any poster here respond to every single claim made in every part of what they quote? Never heard of that here. I made it precisely clear what my issues were with his post, and I pointed out why the claims I had issues with were false.

    And once again. putting in that word "effectively" does NOT change what he is actually arguing if you've taken the time to read the multitude of posts he's made before that. We ALL know he's arguing rushing attempts alone matter. THAT's proper context (taking into account what the person has argued before).
     
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    In that context, I can say "Halftimes matter." Not a single team has ever won an NFL game without having halftime. =)

    (and I can already see it coming, you're going to pull out a stat that some team in 1976 won by forfeit after a freak lightning storm or something like that in the 2nd quarter. No need to prove me wrong here since I 100% guessed and made that up- it's just the principal that a statement can be proven true while also being inaccurate or misleading at the same time.)
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    OK.. so prove to me based on all of The Dark Knight's numerous posts on this subject that I inaccurately represented what he said. If anything, focusing on rushing attempts alone IS the correct interpretation.

    In fact, in his response in post #162 he was referring to precisely such a post he made, the one after the Ravens game where he argued it was rushing attempts early on that was the difference maker. I pointed out he was cherry picking a game that was unrepresentative of what generally happens. Then he said he could easily find other games. I think the examples were the Patriots, Chargers and Rams if I remember correctly? ALL of which turned out to go pass heavy early on lol. I even provided league-wide stats after that supporting my point.

    And then you had that whole thread on the effectiveness of rushing where he repeated the claim it was rushing attempts. No, this is NOT like saying "halftimes matter". You guys are barking up the wrong tree.
     
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  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Uh, I was using that to help defend your viewpoint. Halftimes may matter sometimes, but they're not directly tied to winning or losing 100% of the time. Yet my statement is correct...yet it lies too.

    It's the same as saying, "It's impossible to score in the NFL without wearing socks." The NFL forces you to wear socks but it's certainly not impossible to score without them (since it has nothing to do with actually scoring and you can always just pay the fine). It's a truthful lie that doesn't tell us anything.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2019
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  17. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I don’t think an OL can look good averaging 3 YPC and giving up 3 sacks.
     
  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    We shuffled that entire line yesterday and they halfway held their own. Compared to week 1, they were all-stars yesterday!
     
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  19. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Not arguing against progress, especially given the talent level. Just not gonna win football games at that level. Which is how I evaluate the level of play.
     
  20. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    133 -16 is the worst.pt differential since 1923.Thru 3 games this is the worst team in modern history.All the so called veterans on this team are checking out.See Howard jogging down the field yesterday.
     
  21. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Okay folks, a man of my word...as promised...play by play with play count totals per drive and totals per game.

    Miami
    1st and 10; 6 yard pass.
    2nd and 4; Pass, incomplete (2nd and short and you don't try to run?)
    3rd and 4; 40 yard pass
    1st and 10; Pass incomplete
    2nd and 10; Run, no gain
    3rd and 10; Pass incomplete
    4th and 10; field goal attempt no good
    Dal 0 Mia 0
    6 plays; 5 passes, 1 rush

    Dallas
    1st and 10; 37 yard pass
    1st and 10; 3 yard rush
    2nd and 7; 5 yard pass
    3rd and 2; 7 yard rush (running on 3rd down? Sacrilege!!)
    1st and 10; 1 yard run
    2nd and 9; Pass, incomplete
    3rd and 9; Pass, incomplete
    4th and 9; field goal
    Dal 3 Mia 0
    7 plays; 4 passes, 3 rushes

    Miami
    1st and 10; Pass, incomplete
    2nd and 10; 2 yard run
    3rd and 8; Pass, incomplete
    4th and 8; Punt
    Dal 3 Mia 0
    3 plays; 2 passes, 1 rush
    Totals; 9 plays; 7 passes, 2 rushes

    Dallas
    1st and 10; 5 yard rush
    2nd and 5; Pass, incomplete
    3rd and 5; 6 yard pass
    1st and 10; 12 yard run, penalty offensive holding
    1st and 20; Pass, incomplete
    2nd and 20; Pass, incomplete
    3rd and 20; 33 yard pass
    1st and 10; 13 yard rush
    1st and goal; 2 yard run
    2nd and goal; 5 yard pass, TD
    Dal 10 Mia 0
    10 plays; 6 passes, 4 rushes
    Totals; 17 plays; 10 passes, 7 rushes

    Miami
    1st and 10; 3 yard rush
    2nd and 7; 10 yard pass
    1st and 10; 19 yard pass
    1st and 10; 24 yard pass
    1st and 10; Pass, incomplete
    2nd and 10; 11 yard pass
    1st and goal; 5 yard rush (okay, NOW let's run when it's obvious)
    2nd and goal; rush, no gain
    3rd and goal; rush no gain
    4th and goal; field goal
    Dal 10 Mia 3
    9 plays; 5 pass, 4 rush
    Totals; 18 plays; 12 passes, 6 rushes

    Dallas
    1st and 10; 5 yard rush
    2nd and 5; 8 yard pass
    1st and 10; Pass, intercepted by Mia
    3 plays; 2 passes, 1 rush
    Totals; 20 plays; 12 passes, 8 rushes

    Miami
    1st and 10; 4 yard rush
    2nd and 6; Pass incomplete (Didn't even try to get another 4 yards rushing?)
    3rd and 6; Pass incomplete
    4th and 6; punt
    3 plays; 2 passes, 1 rush
    Totals; 21 plays; 14 passes, 7 rushes

    Dallas
    1st and 10; 4 yard run
    2nd and 6; 4 yard run
    3rd and 2; 4 yard pass
    1st and 10; Pass incomplete
    2nd and 10; 3 yard run
    3rd and 7; 3 yard pass
    4th and 4; Punt
    6 plays; 3 passes, 3 rushes
    Totals; 26 plays; 15 passes, 11 rushes

    Miami
    1st and 10; 6 yard run, QB scramble, pass play called
    2nd and 4; 2 yard run
    3rd and 2; 3 yard run
    1st and 10; 3 yard run
    2nd and 7; 4 yard pass
    3rd and 3; 25 yard pass (Gee, could 3 rushes in a row set this long pass up?)
    1st and 10; rush no gain
    2nd and 10; 6 yard pass
    3rd and 4; pass incomplete
    4th and 4; field goal, Dal 10 - Mia 6
    9 plays 5 passes, 4 rushes
    Totals; 30 plays; 19 passes, 11 rushes

    Dallas
    1st and 10; 5 yard pass
    2nd and 5; 6 yard run
    1st and 10; 6 yard run
    2nd and 4; 5 yard pass, penalty on Dallas, illegal shift
    2nd and 9; pass incomplete
    3rd and 9; pass incomplete
    4th and 9; punt
    6 plays; 4 passes, 2 rushes
    Totals; 32 plays; 19 passes, 13 rushes

    Miami
    1st and 10; 19 yard pass
    1st and 10; 5 yard pass
    2nd and 5; 5 yard run
    1st and 10; 5 yard pass
    2nd and 5; pass incomplete
    3rd and 5; pass incomplete, penalty on Dallas for PI, 26 yards
    1st and 10; 11 yard pass
    1st and 10; pass incomplete
    2nd and 10; pass incomplete, penalty on Dallas for holding, 5 yards
    1st and goal; no gain run, fumbled and recovered by Dallas
    10 plays; 8 passes, 2 rushes
    Totals; 40 plays; 27 passes, 13 rushes

    Dallas
    1st and 10; 11 yard run
    1st and 10; 14 yard run
    1st and 10; pass incomplete
    2nd and 10; 14 yard run
    1st and 10; pass incomplete, hail mary
    5 plays; 2 passes, 3 rushes
    Totals; 37 plays; 21 passes, 16 rushes
    Halftime

    At this point, Miami has called twice as many passing plays as they do rushing plays. Miami has had only 3 rushes with no gain. Granted, some of their rushes have only been for 2 or 3 yards, but the lack of even attempting to run the ball is troubling. Dallas on the other hand has a commitment to the run, having rushed the ball 16 times in the first half. That balance has Miami backpeddling...are the running or passing? 10 rushes total for 5 yards or more; 5 rushes for 10 yards or more. Dallas offensive strategy has balance to it and they are effectively putting on a clinic on how to keep an offense on the field and keep a defense guessing.

    So, what happens in the second half? Since this is getting long and drawn out, I'll abbreviate...

    Dallas
    6 plays; 4 passes, 2 rushes resulting in a touchdown

    Does Miami even TRY to run the ball?
    5 plays; 3 rushes, 2 passes, punt...well, at least they did make and effort; a 6 and 5 yard run Penalty and sack killed it for Miami

    Dallas
    5 passes, 4 rushes resulting in another touchdown. Maybe there's something to this rushing/passing balance?

    Miami
    3 and out...all passing plays netting 7 yards. Miami in complete panic mode. Completely abandoning any rushing attempt

    Dallas
    3 and out, 2 passes, 1 rush...thank goodness for a sack

    Miami...Hmmmmm, what do we do now?
    3 and out, 2 passes and a 7 yard run by Drake, but a roughing the kicker on Haack keeps us alive...
    Oh wait, another 3 and out...3 incomplete passes. Not even going to try and run the ball

    No need to go any further in depth. At this point, Dallas is running the ball to burn out the clock and due to Miami's any effort to even try and run the ball, they are in desperation mode and going to do nothing but throw the ball, so at this point its academic. This game was over after Miami's 1st possession of the second half.

    In the first half, although Miami's play calling was twice as many passes as rushes, they were at least making an attempt to run the ball and was doing well. A missed field goal and a fumble by Drake towards the end of the first half resulted in a 10-6 lead for Dallas rather than a 12-10 or even 16-10 Miami lead.

    After Miami's first possession of the second half, where they actually demonstrated an ability to move the ball on the ground, they abandoned the run all together. If you keep running the ball...commit to it, it opens the door for big passing plays...or allows the chance for your back to rip a 10 plus yard run. Ask Elliott how many of those he ripped off of Miami.

    Running the ball is extremely important in an effective offensive game plan and if you don't commit to it, you're done
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    As I said when you did this with the Ravens game, kudos for at least looking at the data.

    However, there's one issue with your run/pass tallies: you're counting "no plays" which you shouldn't be doing. In other words if a penalty nullifies a play you shouldn't count it. So your numbers are a bit off because of that. And for reference sacks are counted as pass attempts in most discussions of run/pass ratio so if in the future you see a sack go ahead and count it as a pass attempt.

    Thus, the quarter by quarter tally of run vs. pass for the Dolphins vs. Cowboys game is:

    Dolphins
    Q1: 12 pass, 6 rush
    Q2: 12 pass, 8 rush
    Q3: 4 pass, 4 rush
    Q4: 16 pass, 6 rush

    Cowboys
    Q1: 11 pass, 7 rush
    Q2: 9 pass, 8 rush
    Q3: 10 pass, 7 rush
    Q4: 3 pass, 12 rush

    OK.. so those are the stats. And if you're wondering where I'm getting those stats (it's tedious to manually count from the play-by-play) just use the play finder at pro-football-reference:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=WiL2U

    Now.. while it's true that the Cowboys had a higher rushing percentage than the Dolphins in quarters 1 and 2, they did pass MORE than run early on. I bring this up because I want to lay to rest once and for all the argument you made after the Ravens game that started all this (which you haven't yet admitted was incorrect):
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/ravens-at-dolphins-game-thread.94567/page-7#post-3196584

    That quote right there was the origin of our debates about run/pass ratio. You can see in the quarter by quarter tallies that: 1) it is NOT true that the winning teams run more than they pass early on, and 2) it IS generally true (with the Ravens game being an exception) that the primary difference in rushing attempts between winning and losing teams is due to killing the clock in the 4th quarter.

    Now, let's take aim at the argument you're making based on the Dolphins vs. Cowboys game, namely that the winning team runs more in the 1st half than the losing team. Certainly true for the Cowboys but it's not true in general (nor close to being true). Remember those quarter by quarter stats I keep showing you about rushing percentage as a function of point differential? That right there shows it's closer to 50/50 in terms of whether the winning team ran more in the 1st or 2nd quarters. It's really easy to find examples. Here's one:

    Team 1
    Q1: 13 pass, 5 rush
    Q2: 15 pass, 4 rush
    Q3: 11 pass, 9 rush
    Q4: 7 pass, 9 rush

    Team 2
    Q1: 6 pass, 5 rush
    Q2: 6 pass, 7 rush
    Q3: 7 pass, 4 rush
    Q4: 8 pass, 4 rush

    Which team won? You'd predict team 2 won right? But team 1 won. Team 1 = NE and team 2 = Jets.

    Most games don't exhibit such great differences but it's not that hard to find such examples. Point is, it's not even true that the team with the more balanced run/pass ratio early on is much more likely to be the winner.

    So rushing matters (have to rush a certain amount or you'll be too predictable, and obviously rushing efficiency matters), but the number of rushing attempts early on (your argument) is NOT a deciding factor in whether you're the winning or losing team.
     
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  23. Lee2000

    Lee2000 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Please start thread for Week 4 against Chargers.
    Bryan Witzmann was signed by the Carolina Panthers; he was just cut by Miami before the Dallas game and replaced on the roster by Taco.
     
  24. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    This is why words are important.

    I think what happens a lot, is that people have a hard time verbalizing their take. For example, the importance of the running game.

    People often confuse the importance of the running game with "running more" or "ypc" or "running first" and in the heat of a debate/discussion they say the wrong thing.

    The key is, the running game is important, because it keeps defenses honest. It doesn't have to be successful from a ypc standpoint or from a snap count total, but it does help the passing game for the very simple fact defenses aren't sure what is going to be called and DCs can second guess themselves.

    That's hard to verbalize and from my over a decade of forum discussions here, I'm fairly certain this is the kind of thing DK was trying to say.
     
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  25. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    If DK specifically agrees with the statement: "It's not the number of rushing attempts per se or the actual run/pass ratio early on that matters but instead what matters is keeping defenses honest" then you're right.

    My reading of what he thinks (based on what he's said) is that he won't agree to that statement. But if he does.. good post lol.
     
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  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think what happens somewhat often is that people have a pet theory about how the game functions, and it’s never been subjected to actual empirical (in)validation.
     
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  27. keypusher

    keypusher Well-Known Member

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    I'm not trying to weigh in on this discussion -- a couple of cherry-picked games don't prove anything. But anyone remember this one? Monday night against the Colts in 2009. We ran 49 times, 27 first downs, had over 45 minutes(!) time of possession. The Colts had 61 yards rushing, 14 first downs. But we couldn't stop Manning, and we lost. I was dizzy after that game; I couldn't believe what I'd seen.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200909210mia.htm

    The game that really announced to the NFL that passing had taken over, in my mind, was the 1984 opener against the Redskins. They'd ran over us with Riggins in the Super Bowl two years before, and they were doing it again, in the first half, but then Marino revved up the jets, five TD passes, and the Redskins had to shelve Riggins and try to match us in the air. Which, of course, was never going to happen.
     
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  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    We couldn't stop Manning? How about just his receivers? Again, Manning wasn't throwing to himself. If the defense had done even half its job, we win that game easily. Unless you can show me that games that unbalanced in ToP often result in the team with less possession time winning. When you control that much clock, you should have no problem winning. Of course, if you control that much clock because the defense is letting up quick scores, that's different. And if your ball control offense is only scoring field goals, but the defense is letting up quick TDS, you're screwed. So ToP is important, but WHY you have it so long is more important.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2019
  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I counted the “no plays” due to penalty (except pre-snap penalties as the ball wasn’t snapped) for a specific reason, to illustrate the play called, as I counted Rosen’s 6 yard scramble as a pass play as that was the play called.

    FinD and I very rarely agreed in the days of the PoFo but we tend to often agree here as it pertains to football strategy, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Whether you gain 10 yards or 1 yard, if you do not run the ball to keep the defense honest, they’re going to just cherry pick you to death. If you truly commit to the run, that forces defenses to put 7 in the box, and if you’re successful at the run (as Dallas was), that forces 8 in the box, which leaves defenses prone to give up big plays.

    Don’t run the ball or just do it once in a while, defenses are just going to play zone or cover 2 and just kill you.

    Miami got murdered on Sunday...again
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Very well. There's nothing wrong with the claim that running the ball is important (regardless of rushing efficiency) to keep defenses honest. You'll get no dispute from me on that. In fact, not only did I explicitly agree with that I also quantified when the "surprise" effect no longer works (once you get past 50% run/pass ratio there is no further gain in rushing more to keep defenses honest):
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/wi...-quarterbacks-do-we.94622/page-3#post-3203469

    However, it can also be demonstrated that passing is more important than running in the modern game:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/wi...-quarterbacks-do-we.94622/page-3#post-3203648

    So as long as you have no issue with those two statements we're on the same page.
     
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  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah I can't imagine anyone disagreeing with that. Obviously big plays are easier through the air, so that is more effective. But it's only more effective if you're actually running the ball once in awhile.
     
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  32. keypusher

    keypusher Well-Known Member

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    That game was clearly an extreme outlier, and not anything to build a theory of football on. There can't be many games in the entire history of the league where one team had the ball for 75% of the game. I think in general, looking at large samples of games shows that TOP correlates pretty weakly with winning (maybe cbrad or someone else here has the numbers) for reasons you point out -- team A can have a six-minute drive and kick a field goal, and then team B can throw a long TD pass. And to the extent TOP does correlate with winning, it might be the result of winning rather than the cause (as with rushing attempts): if you're way ahead, you burn all the time you can each play; if you're way behind, you're trying to hurry down the field, and you're also liable to turn the ball over.

    Anyway, TOP is not what the thread is about, so I'm sorry if I got off-topic.
     
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  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right. So using that as an example of why the run game is unnecessary is missing the point. I mean generally speaking, if you are controlling the ball on offense, and your defense is controlling the opposing offense, then yes, ToP will correlate to winning. It's kind of like rushing...rushing may not correlate well to winning, but not rushing would seem to correlate to losing...as being one dimensional doesn't generally lead to wins.
     
    The_Dark_Knight likes this.
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What you are arguing for there is that there is a minimum run-pass ratio that needs to be achieved, or a team is very likely to lose.

    I suspect, however, that the failure to achieve that minimum run-pass ratio would most likely be a function of being on the wrong side of a lopsided scoreboard early in games. And if so, then the active ingredient in losing in those situations is surrendering points early in games, and not the failure to run the ball, per se.

    This is simply the flipside of running the ball more frequently late in games to protect a lead and run out the clock. In this instance, on the other hand, you’re simply not running the ball early (and perhaps later as well) in games to try to overcome the other team’s lead.
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    New Hampshire
    No, no I'm not. I'm saying that it's hard to know how much because it's not about the exact number. But not running is going to negatively affect your ability to win, even if running the ball doesn't correlate much with winning.
     

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