New England (-1.5) at Miami
Miami has been a traditional house of horrors for New England, even as the Patriots have dominated the division over the past decade. In 2004, the Patriots were marching to their second consecutive 14-2 season and second consecutive Super Bowl victory, but lost in Miami to the 4-12 Dolphins. In 2006, a 12-4 Patriots team that played for the AFC title suffered its worst loss, 21-0, in Miami against a Dolphins team that went 6-10.
Miami’s defense was on fire for the first two weeks of the season but was pushed around by the Jets to the tune of 31 points in Week 3. Miami sits right in the middle of nearly all of our Quality Stats, ranking from No. 11 to No. 15 in six of our seven categories (they’re No. 21 in Scoreability).
The Patriots, meanwhile, have successfully completed their transition into the 2004 Colts. Their offense, backed by the NFL’s top-ranked
Offensive Hogs, has been excellent, leading the NFL with 30.0 PPG; and Tom Brady has an excellent 109.1 passer rating.
The New England defense, however, is a nightmare: No. 30 on our Defensive Hog Index and No. 28 in Defensive Passer Rating; and they’ve allowed a shameful 27.33 PPG and come fresh off a week in which the anemic Buffalo offense hung 30 points on them in Foxboro.
We cannot envision this New England defense doing enough to prevent another Patriots flop in the Miami heat and humidity.
Miami 31, New England 27 Click to expand...