1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Week 9:Dolphins vs Bears

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Finatik, Nov 1, 2022.

  1. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    The Dolphins are road favorites against the Bears in Week 9 as they go for their third straight win. Tyreek Hill, who leads the NFL in receiving yards (961), is closely followed by teammate Jaylen Waddle (727), who ranks fourth. Miami snapped a two-game road losing streak in Week 8 by beating the Lions, 31-26, and will look to build off that effort against a Bears squad that has lost four of its last five games.

    The Bears are 2-4-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last six games and will try to win the time of possession battle by employing the NFL’s best rushing attack which is averaging 188.4 rushing yards per game.


    Dolphins vs. Bears Odds
    Moneyline: Miami (-213) | Chicago (+175)
    Spread: MIA -4.5 (-110) | CHI +4.5 (-110)
    Total: 45 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
    Game Info: Nov. 6, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
    Dolphins Straight-Up Record: 5-3
    Dolphins Against The Spread Record: 4-4
    Bears Straight-Up Record: 3-5
    Bears Against The Spread Record: 3-4-1

    Odds and Betting Insights
    Both Chicago and Miami have not been good teams for bettors to place wagers behind. Miami is 1-4 ATS (20%) over its last five games and encounters a Bears club that is 2-6-1 ATS (22.2%) over its last nine home games at Soldier Field.

    The one area Miami has struggled to develop this season is its ground game. The Dolphins own the fifth-worst rushing attack, averaging 88.1 yards per game and find a favorable matchup against the NFL’s second-worst rushing defense as the Bears allow 156 rushing yards per contest. Expect Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds to receive plenty of work to keep Miami’s offense balanced Sunday.

    Despite being burned by the Dolphins at the betting counter in recent weeks, Miami will likely be one of the biggest public plays on the board.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  2. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,820
    4,665
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    Tuesday weather report:

    Clear, sunny, breezy and mild.

    62 degrees at kickoff, 15 mph winds, gusts up to 25 mph.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  3. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

    1,663
    1,759
    113
    Jan 16, 2022
    Gusts of 25mph? Better tie Tua down.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  4. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Why yes because 6'1" 215lb men are often blown away by a 25mph gust of wind. :confused2:
     
  5. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    The Bears have followed a memorable Monday night win in New England by trading away a couple of their best players. So with pass rusher Robert Quinn and linebacker Roquan Smith gone only four days apart, what are the Bears trying to do?

    Obviously, they’re not trying to do everything they can to win every possible game in 2022. Whether that’s tanking or rebuilding or something in between doesn’t matter, as long as they don’t actually admit to tanking.

    They’re necessarily admitting that the path to the postseason is narrow for 2022. They’ve faded into the Minnesota rearview mirror for the NFC North crown, and with both the Cowboys and Giants poised to capture two of the three wild-card berths, the Bears would have a very hard time emerging from a scrum that will include the Packers, the Commanders (yes, the Commanders), and the second- and third-place teams in the NFC West (currently, the 49ers and Rams).

    The moves also reflect a recognition that Quinn was likely going to be cut after the 2022 season, and that it was unlikely that they’d keep Smith in 2023. They could have held onto Smith, letting him leave via free agency and potentially getting a third-round compensatory pick in 2024. If, however, they plan to make a splash in free agency when March arrives, they wouldn’t have gotten anything for Smith.

    The Bears also are paying millions to both players for the rest of the season, which basically amounts to buying future draft picks. They’ve added a second-, fourth-, and fifth-rounder for 2023. And 2023 is when things will get rolling. Forget about 2022. If Aaron Rodgers retires (or even if he doesn’t), the division could be wide open by next year. The Bears are planning to try to take it over.

    It’s a form of tanking. It’s strategically doing less now in the hopes of doing more later. And, again, as long as no one admits to it, the league will never do anything about it.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  6. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,820
    4,665
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    Ignore the troll.
     
  7. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    I'm hoping we can get our zone running game going forcing the Bears LB's out wide before Tua shreds them over the middle. Think this is one of the rare occasions I'd like the run to open up the pass rather than our usual pass to open the run.

    I think we match up pretty well with them as our run defence is the strongest part of our defence and Mostert has been running the ball well the last few weeks.

    I'm expecting a close game though but think we can pull out a 24-17 win if we don't shoot ourselves in the foot with penalties.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  8. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,820
    4,665
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    I think the defensive line can get back on track this week. Fields holds the ball forevvvvvvver.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  9. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

    1,663
    1,759
    113
    Jan 16, 2022
    He's 6'0". He's been measured multiple times now. Just because I list myself as 6'5" doesn't make it so.

    And it's just a joke, lighten up.
     
  10. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

    1,663
    1,759
    113
    Jan 16, 2022
    Stop projecting.
     
  11. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

    1,528
    1,136
    113
    Mar 7, 2014
    Ontario, Canada
    We are catching a bit of a break with the fairly mild temperature. Looking at the sched in advance, this had cold weather game potential.

    Chicago has the 3rd highest rush rate in the league… even though they are losing for the majority of their snaps. We have been respectable against the run. Chicago’s passing offense has not been good. So this sets up as a good matchup for our defense to get back on track. If Chicago throws the ball all over us…. It may be time to panic.
     
    dolphin25 and KeyFin like this.
  12. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Being 6'0" should help him then with a lower centre of gravity. :up:
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2022
    StaleTacos likes this.
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    I doubt we're suddenly going to go heavy on the running game. We're #4 in the league in terms of percentage of all plays that are passing attempts, at 59.84%. That's deliberate, which is good. SB winning teams tend to be well above average in passing offense and passing defense. We have half that formula in place.
     
    Pennington's Limp Arm and KeyFin like this.
  14. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    An injury report that looks more like a grocery list is becoming a weekly ritual for the Miami Dolphins. As the team looks to extend its winning streak to three against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, 21 players were listed on the Wednesday injury report.

    Six players did not participate, including tackle Terron Armstead (toe), wide receiver River Cracraft (illness), cornerback Xavien Howard (vet rest), defensive end Melvin Ingram (vet rest), tackle Austin Jackson (ankle/calf) and defensive tackle John Jenkins (personal).

    Newly signed linebacker Bradley Chubb and running back Jeff Wilson Jr. were both limited, listed as vet rest days. Linebacker Jerome Baker (hip), tight end Tanner Conner (knee), defensive tackle Raekwon Davis (knee), safety Clayton Fejedelm (groin), running back Raheem Mostert (vet rest), tackle Brandon Shell (groin), tight end Durham Smythe (hamstring) and linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (chest/ribs) were also limited.

    Some positive news, Jevon Holland (wrist), Emmanual Ogbah (back), Zach Sieler (hand), Jaylen Waddle (shoulder), and Christian Wilkins (hand) were all fully active.

    All eyes will be on Jackson, who was just recently activated from injured reserve, and if he’ll return to the starting right tackle role instead of Shell.

    Despite a long list of injuries, just two games remain before the Dolphins hit the bye week, which will be followed with four road games in five weeks.

    Six players did not participate in practice Wednesday, but four of those absences were not injury-related. And the two who didn't practice because of injuries were not expected to practice because Terron Armstead has not worked on Wednesdays all season and because Austin Jackson isn't ready to go yet despite coming off injured reserve on Tuesday, as indicated by head coach Mike McDaniel earlier in the week.

    And then there was Xavien Howard, who didn't practice because of vet rest but who no longer is listed with a groin injury. And also wide receiver River Cracraft, who sat out because of illlness but no longer was listed with the neck injury that caused him to miss the game against the Detroit Lions.

    Of the other two absences, Melvin Ingram got his customary Wednesday vet rest and defensive tackle John Jenkins was out for personal reasons.

    Among the 11 players listed as limited participants, three had vet rest listed as the reason. That included newcomers Bradley Chubb and Jeff Wilson Jr. in a situation that wasn't unusual in the least given that they just arrived in South Florida. The other player limited because of vet rest was running back Raheem Mostert.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2022
    KeyFin likes this.
  15. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    BEARS INJURY REPORT
    Chicago had a very small injury report compared to that of the Dolphins, with only four players listed, though all of them are starters.

    Three worked in a limited capacity Wednesday: DB Kyler Gordon (hip), DB Eddie Jackson (hip) and OL Teven Jenkins (back). The one player who did sit out practice was offensive lineman Larry Borom, who missed the Bears' Week 8 game at Dallas with a concussion.
     
  16. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

    2,068
    1,731
    113
    Sep 29, 2016
    It doesn’t sound like Jackson will play this Sunday, but if he does, I’d rather see him fill in for Liam instead of protecting Tua’s blind side.
     
  17. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    Dolphins (-5) at Bears

    MDS’s take: A Bears defense that suddenly doesn’t have Robert Quinn or Roquan Smith is going to struggle with the big-play Dolphins offense.

    MDS’s pick: Dolphins 30, Bears 20.

    Florio’s take: The Dolphins were the only team to beat the 1985 Bears. Thirty-seven years later, the Dolphins simply become the latest to beat the 2022 Bears.

    Florio’s pick: Dolphins 31, Bears 24.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I generally don't like Florio, but I think that will be a very true statement. We're going to torch them on the ground and then throw a few bombs simply out of boredom. I'm thinking more like 41-14.
     
  19. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY

    I don't think our defense can contain Fields enough to hold the score that low. I'm thinking the final score is something around 28-24 with the Dolphins pulling out a win with a defensive stand at the end not very unlike what happened in Detroit.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    You could be right. But if we can set up the ground game and really pound the football, then we'll be eating clock and Fields will have limited opportunities. We'll see though...I'm always the optimist!
     
    RGF likes this.
  21. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

    2,068
    1,731
    113
    Sep 29, 2016
    Any word on if Wilson will see a few snaps on Sunday?
     
  22. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

    3,770
    1,500
    113
    Oct 25, 2010
    Maryland
    It's the same offense so I would say he'll be RB2. We should be able to get our ground game going here with Smith and Quinn gone.
     
  23. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    It should be somewhat easier for him to pick up the system since he's been in a like minded one before.
     
    Pennington's Limp Arm likes this.
  24. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    I am hopeful that the new guy can improve our running game, but our OL is still our OL.
     
    Pennington's Limp Arm and KeyFin like this.
  25. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

    1,461
    1,234
    113
    Dec 29, 2013
    Unless the line is only opening holes for Mostert it seems like a safe bet that he will improve over Edmonds.
     
    Pennington's Limp Arm and KeyFin like this.
  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    The outside zone stuff is basically the guard making a basic block to set the seam, then Armstead destroying the DT/DE and driving them towards the sidelines. That leaves the RB one on one against that outside LB 5 yards down the field, with the angle and speed to blow right past him.

    If Armstead gets his block (which he almost always does), it's a 5 yard gain. If someone gets the LB, it's probably a TD or a foot race with the safety. And it's there all day long in this offense.
     
  27. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Tua has a passer rating of 113
    Miami has allowed a oasser rating of 100

    Justin Fields has a passer rating of 81.
    Chicago has allowed a passer rating of 80

    NFL average is 90.

    Applying a simplistic model you can roughly expect Miami to make a passer rating of 103 and Chicago to make 90. The removal of Quinn and Smith from Chicago and the addition of Chubb to Miami suggests that the defense adjustments should shift a little in Miami’s favor.

    The difference in expected passer rating is +13 on raw numbers, maybe up to +16 taking recent trades into account. Based on that Miami is probably a 75% chance to win the game.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  28. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,820
    4,665
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    Weather update:

    65 and sunny, moderate winds 15 mph.

    I don't see the Bears stopping this offense. I personally think Fields is one of the worst throwers of the football in the NFL. If they keep him in the pocket, this game has the potential to be a blowout.

    I'm going 28-13 Dolphins.
     
  29. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY

    That's the thing, though. Remember what Lamar Jackson did to our defense running the ball.
     
  30. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,820
    4,665
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    Fields isn't Jackson.
     
  31. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    Only in that he can't pass as well as Jackson. He can run pretty damn well.
     
  32. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

    1,528
    1,136
    113
    Mar 7, 2014
    Ontario, Canada
    Shell has been OK at Right Tackle.

    Jones looked OK filling in for Eichenberg last week. It will be interesting to see how Jones performs as a starter in Chicago.

    I don’t think Jackson is guaranteed to step back in to a starting role to be honest.
    I can’t envision the coaches sitting around saying ‘we’ve got to find a spot for Jackson’.
     
  33. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    NextGenStats had Fields the fastest ball carrier in the league last week at 21.23mph so he can shift.

    Although the Bears pass defence looks good in the stats I was surprised to see this...

    https://www.nfl.com/videos/next-gen-stats-top-3-mismatches-for-week-9

    Basically in the first mismatch it mentions the Bears are 2nd worse in the league at stopping outside runs (where we are good) but the 2nd mismatch was Hill and Waddle against their secondary since they have been terrible at stopping passing 10+ yards in the air and they use a lot of cover 2 which Tua has been shredding.

    I think I'm adjusting my expectations of this game as I don't think they will be able to stop our offence at all. I was expecting another close game but now feel we will win by 10 points.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  34. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

    2,068
    1,731
    113
    Sep 29, 2016
    Would not have guessed that Fields was that fast. Jackson looks fast, Hill and Waddle look fast - Fields doesn’t look like he’s in their league.

    Keep him in the pocket, though, and he’s far less effective.
     
  35. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    4,052
    2,347
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    I’m more worried about us vs the Refs than Chicago. Hope the league will allow us to win this weekend. Seems they are hell bent on ensuring we don’t have anything bounce our way.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  36. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,820
    4,665
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    Check out the weather in the Ohio State/Northwestern game. They're going to miss that by one day.

    Weather gods are with us.
     
    KeyFin and Rick 1966 like this.
  37. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

    2,068
    1,731
    113
    Sep 29, 2016
    10/26 for 76 yards for the Heisman front runner; I’d say conditions were pretty bad.
     
  38. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

    4,587
    1,707
    113
    Nov 25, 2012
    Germany
    Looking forward to see our new acquisitions in action. Let’s go Fins!
     
    Irishman likes this.
  39. Dan S

    Dan S Phins up!

    236
    149
    43
    Jul 30, 2016
    I'm hoping for way fewer penalties this week
     
    Irishman likes this.
  40. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    45,652
    19,304
    113
    Dec 3, 2007
    Windsor, ON. CANADA
    These backup CB's are killing us. We need Byron Jones back badly.
     
    Irishman likes this.

Share This Page