Folks in southern Texas, northern Mexico could be experiencing a Cat 2 hurricane by Wednesday morning. The tropical wave moving through the Caribbean closed circulation just before moving across the northern tip of the Yucatan peninsula. It has been upgraded to tropical storm status and assigned the name Dolly. All my graphs and quotes are complements of the weather underground, Dr. Jeff Masters place. Here is a link to the tropical page, Dr. Master's blog is on the right, active weather concerns below, satillite links below that; http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ I like the water vapor.. water is energy; http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html Here is current satellite loop, the storm band furthest to the west is showing up on the Brownsville Texas radar; Here are the current computer models The dark blue line.. the "GFDL" track is the one I generally favor and if it points at me I get seriously nervous. Many things can happen but GFDL has Dolly a near Cat 2 storm before landfall. If it slows more than expected, it could also become stronger than expected. There was an upper level cold low over Cuba that just tracked in front of Dolly and fell apart, reducing wind shear and creating a more favorable condition for intensification. This upper level low suppressed Dolly through the western Caribbean until just before landfall at Yucatan. Although the waters are slightly cooler than normal, Dr Masters feels there is enough energy there to make Dolly dangerous. The storm center appears to be trying to move north towards the heavier convection, if this happens successfully, the storm tracks will have to be adjusted north, putting Texas in more danger. IMO, this storm tried to do that a number of times only to have the aforementioned upper level low shear the tops off preventing the circulation move and suppressing intensification. IF the storm slows, steering currents become less defined on Wednesday and the storm could well push further north than currently forecast. Here are the current watches that have been issued. Here is Brownsville Texas radar. Because I subscribe here, "I" see a 40 frame loop of radar, I think only a 6 frame loop will show here. I have you set up in the 248nm range. There is an advanced radar bar on the left border of the radar map that bares/bears exploring. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=40&delay=15&scale=1.00&noclutter=0&ID=BRO&type=N0Z&lat=25.98174095&lon=-97.53533936&label=Brownsville%2C+TX&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 Here is an interesting link to Brownsville, a feature that is called "WunderMap new!" It's an interactive weather page. The view I offer you is backed out enough to expose the sea buoy, which will be interesting to watch as the storm strengthens and moves across it..click on the buoy for it's info, zoom in for a better view of Brownsville, and what's available there. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=25.77021&lon=-95.61401&zoom=7&type=hyb&rad=1&rad.num=1&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=70&rad.stm=0&wxsn=1&wxsn.mode=tw&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0&fire=0 Please explore Dr. Masters weather site, I promise if you are any kind of outdoors-man or weatherhead, this place will not disappoint. For 10 bucks a year, they give me a 40 image loop on the radar that is worth saving. Tropical storm Cristobal.. I found that lil swirl still over Florida days ago and saved radar loops as it has moved up the coast.. even sent the first loop to Celkin.. (he wasn't impressed either : ) ) Back to serious, those of you in harms way, it looks to be a near certainty you will be getting nasty weather, and really, you only get TOMMORROW to prepare, things could be near hurricane force by sunup Wednesday. Be well, my thoughts and prayers to you all.
Explains why Lucky has only been on here briefly. He must be busy boarding up his home and tying down his donkey's.
Be careful any Texans out there. Not too much warning for this storm. Take whatever precautions you can.
Do you think as South Floridians we've taken a "ho hum" approach to Hurricanes over the past 10 years or so? It doesnt really seem to phase me that much anymore (although it def should)
Considering the fact that during every storm at some point you can find me outside having a smoke, yes!
I think your attitude is probably common hardcore, people have short memories. Just remember, hurricanes have a way of hurting those that treat them lightly the harshest. I live on the shore of Indian River, I take them all serious.
I hear you man. One of my best friends lives in Cali and has a similar take on Earthquakes (way more scary IMO). Also, Im not a homeowner so I wouldnt have much to replace If another bad one hit.
thanks for the heads up cnc66 as i live on the suthern edge of texas and la. and have not heard about it mostly due to my cable provider not offering 'actual" local stations. i tend to throw those geustimated paths out the window due to so many factors going into the sudden change of direction a cane can take but it definately makes me more aware and cautious to follow the "projected" path more closely. granted im not as weary of a cat two still dangerous but not yet get the heck out of dodge cat for me yet. the only cane i have left for was rita and glad i did(still stuck in it for the initial hit but was in a better place than where i am now.)
Rita was the real deal, making landfall as a Cat 3. Here is the landfall radar loop. The radars are in 248 nm range.
yesir it sure was but i think the actual size of the storm had less to do with me evacuating than the initial aftermath of it..thinking about the flooding,lack of power,lack of gas,ability to get and cook food had me more apt of taking off as well as both my grandparents being in bad health..my grandmother was actually in the local hospital and they had no choice but to release her due to closing for the evac a day before the storm hit. now we still got hit pretty good as we only went about 150 miles northeast(yea east of the cane is worst) with a tornado hitting about a football lenght away from us so the storm was still a scary thing and still ended up in some of the situations we left for as no power,water but the hospitol there was still open and we were able to cook a little bit(trusty ole charcol bbq pits rock)and get gas a few days after rather than a month. on a side note if tis storm does not get real strong the area in which it is projected to hit has been very,very dry and in much need of rain.
I was reading about that yesterday. They need a long soft drizzel, there might be some serious flash flooding if rain rates are high.
Having been through several earthquakes myself (I live in SoFla so hurricanes don't even need to be mentioned) I find them to be much less worse than hurricanes emotionally. with an earthquake you are not watching the storm build up for potentially a few weeks not knowing where it will go. An earthquake also only lasts for a few seconds whereas a hurricane can last over a day even. Sure both are devastating, but the watching and waiting with hurricanes plus the amount of time they can last is the worst to me. Glad I'm moving in Virginia in a month, hope they don't get as many.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YkPughdDWE At least you get some warning with a hurricane. there is very little, if any, warning with a earth quake.
we'll see if my city floods again. Last time it was pretty bad, and the city still did pretty nothing to fix our drainage problem...
Take it from someone that lived through Hurricane Andrew and I lived at the time at 19601 Belmont Dr, in the Cutler Ridge area of Miami. 165 mph SUSTAINED winds with gusts approaching 200 mph........ You bet I take them seriously. I get a panic attack everytime one of those depressions comes off of Africa. I have a Hurricane Andrew story if anyone wants to hear it. Sometimes its cathartic to tell it.
Marty how about that depression in the mid Atlantic that just now seems to be forming? Was in Donna back in 60 in Daytona, some storm. They really get good when you have to ride them out at sea. Want to talk about a ride. Thanks for the links as I watch those things; close!
I have to tell you: I'm a member of a copy editor bulletin board, and there's a thread on it that has been going since 2004 based on the notion that "Hello Dolly" and its variants "Hello Dali" and "Hello Dalai" are the tackiest and most overused headline of all time. So seeing this thread really made me laugh.
Ron, I don't know what you mean. There is the new Invest 97 just east of the Cape Verde Islands, but conditions are not favorable until midweek, and it will likely not threathen Conus. snort... poor skimmers, WE just pull the plug and get under it here is the almost 3 pm est Brownsville radar
well, it's HURRICANE Dolly now, she finally tightened up and is now a minimal hurricane. It is supposed to stall and become somewhat confused before landfall, but they are not forcasting any serious intensification. Buoy 420020 which is 190 miles ese from Brownsville has winds of 40 mph, seas of 14 feet. The storm center is about 100 miles wsw from the buoy. Here is the 8:30 pm est radar loops from Brownsville;
Should miss me by a fair bit up inbetween Houston and Galveston. Even if it came close doubt wed leave. We are far enough inland that only a cat4-5 is really worth leaving for. Hopefully wont need to board windows, always a PITA! The new tension clip thing is easy and works well but about 95% of our windows are incompatible
there is a new movie out at the video stores about the devestation that rita had on little cheneir which is where i have been working the last few months helping rebuild/remodel some of the camps/houses down there if anyone cares to check it out. the name of the movie is little chenier:a cajun story. i have yet to see it myself as it just came out and i have pretty much seen the damage and talked to residents first hand but im sure i will check it out very soon.
Invest 97; thats the one. Thanks Marty. You know I always wondered what it was like below the surface. Not to TO the thread but was it really that smooth? Or are you joshing an old skimmer.
The silver lining here is that unlike Florida, hurricanes don't last long over Texas and they can't re-energize.
hahaha, there is ya know, an exception to every rule.. Erin made landfall as a tropical storm, diminished to a tropical depression, and then re-energized over Oklahoma into a tropical storm.. first time I have ever seen such intensification over land. I have some radar loops saved but that is for later anyway, back to Dolly.. she is just offshore of Brownsville, they will be experiancing eyewall conditions very soon. They say max sustained winds will be only 90 mph or so, but that can be pretty damaging if the local infrastructure isn't hurricane capable.
Just watching the Weather Channel, and they said forward movement is slowing down, which is not a good thing. This means more wind for a longer time, but worse, more rain. Now expecting 9-12 inches instead of the 6-10 earlier expected. This could be devasting. So far highest wind gust in downtown Brownsville at 61 mph. The people in harms way, are in my morning Matins prayers.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-hurricane-dolly,0,1026107.story She's gettin feisty.... now up to a Cat 2
So did I. I was 5 at the time and terrified. Fourtantely, I was in Broward county, and we didnt suffer as much damage as did Dade county.
After Wilma, my area looked like it has gone through some crazy winter storm without snow just blew through, because there were no leaves on the trees and it was actually pretty cold after that storm.
