What Are Reasonable Rookie Expectations for Miami Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi? | Bleacher Report (via http://ble.ac/teamstream-) http://teamstre.am/1DLArEE
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Good question.
Depends on:
1) Coaches trusting a rookie
2) His knee
3) His pass protection (see #1)
I'd say the best case scenario would be him working his way up to 10 touches per game and 1 pass caught per game. If that were the case, I could see him ending the season with 600-700yds rushing, 100 yds receiving and 5 TDs.
Worst case, he barely plays.Da 'Fins likes this. -
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Hate to say it but he's gonna be a bust. We've seen this story before in all of our drafts the last few years. We always take a gamble on injured players and they never see the field consistently. Running back with bad knees??? Sheesh.
dolphin25 likes this. -
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You never know guys...he could become a special player for us real soon.
dolfan22 and P h i N s A N i T y like this. -
Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member
He was fun to watch in college. No expectation at all for a rookie 5th rd pick. Can he tackle? Can he block? Without getting a holding penalty. Can he get his head NFL ready this year? He'll have to play ST to make the team I think. After that, better make sure he can pick up a blitz before he sees game time on offense.
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Sceeto, first&goal, Tin Indian and 5 others like this.
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I think people are underestimating the role Damien Williams is going to play. In my eyes, Ajayi will be doing great if he splits the non-Miller production with Williams. I expect about 600-800 yards from them combined.
Puka-head likes this. -
excellent running stable! let them compete for playing time.
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His real worth will come in the passing game, as he was the best receiving back in the draft.
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Fin4Ever and Colorado Dolfan like this.
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His knee issues don't limit the quality of his play on the field. They limit the length of his career. If he busts it won't be because of his current knee condition.Fin4Ever, Sceeto and Colorado Dolfan like this. -
I would like to see the 3 of them split the carries, and each get over 1000 yards rushing.:wink2:
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Even if we get 4 years of healthy production out of him, hes a 1-2 round talent that we got in the 5th. I'd think the expectations are high for him. -
He is losing cartilage in his knee. Its bone on bone. Thats going to cause pain. Playing through pain could absolutely limit his quality of play on the field. -
He dropped to the 5th because of some speculation that he is Bone on Bone in the one knee. He has actually played two years on it since it was repaired and hasn't missed a game since.
1st or (more likely) 2nd round talent that fell to the 5th. Even all the scouts and talking heads who were cautioning about his knee, thought he was an excellent pick in the 5th.
The Dolphins did not risk much taking him at that point in the draft. If he pans out we got a steal at RB. Worst case is he never sees the field because of his knee. -
By his play on the field Ajayi was one of only two other backs after Gurley and Gordon that I liked for Miami in this draft. The other was Josh Robinson who went in the 6th. Those two were guys that I liked as potential stars and worthy of later picks. There was quite a few backs in this draft with a large disparity of opinions. Some saw it as a great RB draft and other didn't. That variance and Ajayi's injury would have been more than enough to drop him to the 5th.
My understanding of the Ajayi injury was that it was diagnosed early in his college career but was not definitive. In other words, there was a mix of opinion among doctors as to what the x-rays showed. I know some teams took him off their board and some didn't. I haven't seen his x-rays myself, but in general you don't actually see the cartilage or lack there of (I've seen x-rays of patients with osteoarthritis). What you see is less space between the knee bones. I would guess that how much less space you see is a subjective call. Your big indicator is the patient's report of pain. If the person can take the pain then the injury isn't really limiting other than eventually we assume the bone will wear down and it will be too painful to take. In the old days you'd see players having to take pain shots to endure the pain. Reports are that Ajayi wasn't taking pain shots to play. So either it's not really bone on bone and he's not in pain (as he claims) or he's got a really high pain tolerance. Either way I would guess that it's safe to assume that he'll be able to play at his current level (whatever that may be) through at least his rookie contract. So I wouldn't be predicting he'd bust based on the injury report at least not through his first 4 years.Fin4Ever, Sceeto, SICK and 1 other person like this. -
Puka-head likes this.
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I wouldn't call Ajayi a power back. I just hope he's better able to keep his balance after contact than Miller. That's what he was able to do in college better than Miller did in college. Miller just seems to prone to falling down after contact. He's clearly improved in that regard from his first seasons. He seems to generally fall forward and sometimes actually takes a few steps after the contact (which I guess counts as a broken tackle), but then he either falls or is tackled by the next guy b/c he isn't gathered enough.
djphinfan likes this. -
I agree that there isn't much risk - a fifth rounder has a very low chance of becoming successful. I'm just saying that I don't think his odds are significantly greater than most other fifth rounders. -
djphinfan likes this.
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Sceeto likes this.
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I like him a lot. Leading up to the draft, I mentioned him several times. The knee issue should not be that big of a deal. At worse, even if we get one good contract out of him, it will be worth it and that is certainly possible, though I think and hope we can get a lot more.The draft is funny. The knee issue may have not been the only reason he fell. Maybe most of the RB needy teams already picked their guy. Sometimes teams may need or want a RB, but when it was their time to pick, another player may have just happened to a be a better fit and fill a bigger need. We see strange and unexpected things happen every year in the draft and it's always a tough call for RBs in the draft. Also, he's not going to be getting all the carries, He has power, but he's also a great receiver out of the backfield and he has very good vision through the hole. He can be a great compliment to Miller. I am looking forward to seeing what he can do. I was very psyched when they drafted him.
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He's the most complete back in the draft. He relishes the chip on your shoulder role. I would say 500 rushing, 500 receiving would be considered a good year for him. Anything more and your looking at ROY award consideration...
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How about this: you explain why no NFL team drafted him before the 5th round? If you're saying that he's a second round talent, then that means he has a three year or less shelf life.
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