His actual December passing rating was 80.5. How is it only 8.16 points above? Your projected totals are higher than that.
Like I said I included Buffalo twice. That first game he had a 123.8 rating, for which the predicted is 32.79 below actual. Also, taking the average of 4 passer rating differences (if you just focus on December) isn't the same as taking the difference of the passer rating averages because the weighting by passing attempts is not being taken into account. All that was done in the original calculation for 100.5.
Ultimately, I think the problem with your analysis is using too small of a data set. A data set which you believe to be above standard deviations. It "can't be explained by normal variation alone" because it's not large enough. Simple. If you combine the past 3 years, that data would more closely align with the QB he was in December and be a better representation of the QB that he is moving forward. Instead, you basically just want to use 3 months of an entire career and extrapolate that out. Makes no sense to me.
Clearly it's not a large sample, but: 1) it's the best we can do right now, and 2) the fact year 3 is statistically significant despite small sample size is telling. It's MUCH harder to be statistically significant with small sample size. Your intuition on that one is backwards. Either way, it's only meant as a prediction for year 3. We'll see what happens going forward.
Not following there. If I look at multiple years of data and then look at 3 games where an explosion occurs. I wouldn't use the 3 games to extrapolate anything out.
In statistics, it's equally problematic to have too small sample size and too large sample size. With too small sample size you can rule out almost nothing, i.e., almost nothing is statistically significant. With too large sample size every tiny difference is statistically significant. You need a middle ground. So first of all your intuition needs to change: if you see statistical significance with small sample sizes that means the difference was really huge. As far as Tua is concerned, he only has 21 games started over years 1-2, and 13 games in year 3. That's nothing like multiple years of data and using only 3 games. Year 3 is 38% of all his games. It's not as unbalanced a comparison as you might think.
I’m not judging Brady in one game. I’m judging him on the entire season! If Brady was THE all, Be all, Fix all factors, the Buccaneers wouldn’t have defaulted into the playoffs with an 8-9 record. They’re in the NFC South, playing the Falcons, Panthers and Saints twice. Those teams are SO bad that should have been a guaranteed 6 wins right there…if BRADY is all that. They swept the Saints but split with the Falcons and Panthers. They lost to 4 playoff teams in the Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals and 49ers. Isn’t part of your argument against Tua is he didn’t face any playoff teams? Well the “great” Tom Brady did and lost all of them. Additionally he lost to the Packers, Steelers and Browns. For all the arguments you make against Tagovailoa, Brady also failed by those same metrics…if Brady is the end all, be all, fix all factor. Brady’s year this season reminds me so much of Marino’s last season with the Dolphins…stuck around one year longer than he should have. If the Dolphins are STUPID enough to pursue and land Brady, I’m going to be the troll next season saying “I told you so” all season long…and when Tua is on another team lighting it up and going deep in the playoffs, like Tannehill did, I’m going to continue to troll and ask, “Ya miss Tua now?”
You can lose it very fast in the NFL. Brady is an old man for the league and what he has done up to this point is insane to think about. But yeah, he just has not been good this year. I see a fair amount of blame being thrown at Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich ... but like, both of them were there last year and the year before too. It's Brady - he's been declining and he's finally hit the tipping point. Replacing Tua with him is an absurd idea at this time, regardless of one's feelings about Tua.
Honestly, the Dolphins wouldn't even have to land Brady. Because if Brady does the dumb thing and plays next year and ends up with a bad year, best believe I will be pulling receipts.
Why is this season so much more important than previous seasons? Because Tua finally did well in a small sample and Brady took a step back in a crazy emotional year for him? If I had to bet who has the more productive 2023 and stays on the field the whole season, it's pretty simple for me. Use the large sample size of data to make future predictions.
Because Brady threw 18 less touchdowns and the offense looked rather pedestrian in a division so trash that the Bucs, despite winning the division, has a worse record than every single wild card team this year?
Like, do you not realize how OLD Tom Brady is? What he has been doing is literally unprecedented. Father Time ALWAYS wins, it's a matter of when. It really looked like that "when" for Tom was "this year". It's not just stats either, he just rarely ever looked impressive. His arm is fading hard, his decision making isn't as quick, mobility is falling, pocket agility is falling. Rogers a few years back was young enough to see his resurgence coming. I wouldn't be shocked to see Russell Wilson have a much improved second year with Denver. But man, sometimes it's just time. When you are his age, taking a step back generally doesn't lead to a step forward again, you're lucky if he stays in place let alone goes back more.
Have you watched Brady play this year? Behind our line, he'd be more pissed off than a midget with a yo-yo! He's washed...
Ain't happening. It's against NFL rules to use ownership as compensation. Even if it were allowed the Phins are currently valued at 4.6 billion dollars. If you gave him a measly 1% that would have a current value of 46 million dollars. Ain't no way Brady is worth 46 million a year. But that's not the worst part of it. Now multiply that by 14% per year (the average NFL franchise yearly increase in value) amortized over 20 years (If Brady were to hold onto it that long) and the value would be $659,687,513.85 You think Ross is going to gift him that windfall for playing 1 season? I don't think so. Ross is old, not stupid...
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... That dude is trash. It would be typical Miami to burn a high draft pick on a project. I'm an FSU fan. I was hoping that dude would stay in school for a few more years of guaranteed wins for FSU. T.R.A.S.H.--trash. He a running QB who played at a big school so he must be good, right? WRONG!
That's one way of looking at it. But what if he's willing to change positions? He's 6'4", 231, and apparently runs a 4.50.
Big QB who runs fast and throws hard. He'd be a project but that's why he wouldn't be drafted in the 1st. Right?
From what I saw of him at Florida this year, he should have stayed in school - he is a project at the college level, much less the NFL. Even so, I’ll bet he’s gone by the time we pick in round 2.
Yeah, no thanks. You can get quality starters who can start right away in the 2nd round, leave the project players for 3rd or 4th round onwards. And when is the last time Miami had any success picking a project developmental player in the early rounds anyway? We always fail at that so please just stay away from it.
We dont need another failed project. We can get a quality starter who can contribute right away in the 2nd round. Actually the 2nd round is where historically grier has done better by picking solid players who are NFL ready (holland, hunt, howard). Of course that is after he's done wasting first rounders on projects. We never have any success picking project developmental players so please lets stop doing it and focus on low risk, high floor prospects who are ready to contribute.
Saw a mock draft this morning that had him going to Carolina at #9, which is ridiculously high for him, but it’s still early. If he has a good combine, though, I could see it happen, especially for a team like the Panthers, who haven’t had good qb play in a while.
I'm not interested in drafting with our higher picks or to plug him in as a starter right away. If he's there in 5th round or later, I wouldn't mind taking a flyer. Nothing more.
That would be awesome. This is an 11 or 12-win team if we had a DC like that, assuming Tua can stay healthy.
SportsLine has Miami with the top odds to land Barkley this offseason. https://www.sportsline.com/NFL/news...if-free-agent-running-back-leaves-giants/amp/
