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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Jul 16, 2021.
For me it's playoffs or I start questioning this regime.
It's not to much to ask for in year 3
At least 10 wins should always be the first goal..
Tua improving and showing us what we need to see..
Better team football than last year is what I look for…
Super Bowl or bust.
If you ain't first, you're last!
If the teams stays healthy they need to win wildcard playoff game. Anything less is grounds for firing both the coach and GM.
I think that getting to the playoffs shows fortitude. Even with tiebreakers, you still are putting yourself in position to win them. Having a good record but missing out on the playoffs is like those guys who put up huge stats in garbage time play. It seems impressive on paper, but you didn't ultimately get the job done.
Plus, I think getting to the playoffs and building that crunch time experience is important. I'm not sure a huge blowout would do a ton for us, but even a relatively close loss is still good experience. Playoff football is just a different animal than even "must-win" regular season games, I think it would behoove us to get Tua and Co into that experience sooner rather than later.
A good record with no playoffs just feels hollow. Bottom line is that we weren't good enough.
But those are such different things!
I'm not debating the fact that playing in a competitive playoff game wouldn't be good for the Dolphins. It would, no question.
But somehow sneaking into the playoffs as a 9-8 team doesn't make you inherently better than a poor 11-6 team that loses out due to a top heavy conference.
Last season, Washington won their division with a 7-9 record, while five other teams made the playoffs as wildcards with 11 or 10 wins. And meanwhile, the Dolphins sat out with 10 themselves. Did Washington actually have a better year? Or were they just the beneficiaries of a terrible division?
The Pats have been the beneficiary of a horrific division for nearly the entirety of Brady's tenure - not a single player, coach or fan cares.
I would say that Washington last year was an outlier though, so that particular story doesn't carry a lot of water.
I'm just of the opinion that a successful season, for me, means making the playoffs and being competitive. I don't much care how many wins it takes, just get it done. If you don't get it done, you failed. Even if you win a lot of games, you didn't win enough. You failed.
I would define "better" as "higher probability of winning the SB". So in any given season it's better to go 7-9 with a playoff berth than 11-5 without a playoff berth because you increase the chances of winning the SB that year. However, I do agree that 11-5 with no playoffs is more likely indicative of a higher probability of winning the SB in future years (which means making the playoffs in future years).
So depending on what the goal is — winning the SB in a given year or winning the SB in a future year — it's "better" to be 7-9 with a playoff berth or "better" to be 11-5 with no playoffs. There's no single answer here IMO. Have to phrase the question more precisely.
I suppose we disagree on the semantics then.
Suppose one person scored a 90% on a standardized test and finished 50th in his class of 200. Meanwhile in another group, someone took the exact same test and scored an 80%, but finished 30th in his. Did the person who scored 80% do better than the person who scored 90%, just because the people he was grouped with did more poorly overall?
Depends on if there's a prize for finishing 1st in class (not across classes obviously). If there's a prize for finishing 1st in class then you'd rather be the guy that performed worse on the absolute scale (i.e., your test) but better on the relative scale (i.e., closer to 1st). If there's no prize then you go with the absolute scale.
So if there's a prize, like with the SB, it comes down to present vs. future. If you're only talking about present then I want playoffs.
I'm starting to feel like you're trolling me here. I give up.
I ran the math on this 4 or 5 seasons ago. The AFC East has been more or less .500 once you take the Pats out of the equation. The only reason why the division seemed weak was the Pats winning 4+ divisional games every year
My daughter had a similar math problem in high school. She's a sax player and in their annual state competition, she'd usually place top 5 overall. However, there's also a state orchestra and to be admitted, you have to come in top two in your region. Our region of the state was by far the most competitive and in her senior year, she was 3rd overall in the region and 4th overall in the entire state...so she didn't get to play in the state orchestra that year. Meanwhile, in small parts of the state kids that maybe came in 50th overall got the invite because they were 1st or 2nd in their region.
In my daughter's case, 4th overall in the state meant almost nothing to her because inferior players got to travel. But at the end of the day, she was still a much better sax player than the majority that attended...even without the recognition.
So I guess the "answer" to your debate with cBrad comes down to what you feel is more important- being one of the best or being recognized. Sometimes you don't get both.
I suppose I'll rephrase the question.
In which scenario would you feel better about the Dolphins in 2022? (with no further details about how the team played)
Going 11-6 and missing the playoffs vs
Going 9-8 and getting blown out in the Wild Card round
To be fair, you need three or more options there- the Giants and other teams have won multiple super bowls with 9 or less wins in the regular season.
My answer would be simple though- I'll take the 11 wins and whatever comes with it.
My strong assumption is that if the Dolphins have to play on the road vs one of the best teams in the AFC, winning that playoff game is a pipe dream. So a big loss is by far the most likely outcome should they make the playoffs, unless they win the division. (in 2021)
I mean, that's the beauty of the playoffs...it's a new season. You also have to factor in that we've beaten many of the top AFC teams the past few years. I really think Buffalo is the only team I'm scared of in the AFC. Maybe Tennessee as well.
I see the Fins as being good enough to fight for the 6th or 7th seed with about half of the conference. But several steps below the best four teams. Hopefully that's different a year from now.
I don't see it that way, especially if we have Howard this year. I think the defense will continue improving each season and I'm really not scared of those powerhouses anymore (except Buffalo...and that's their defense as well). We saw what Tampa did to KC last year when you really dial up pressure and I think we'll beat most teams the same way once this squad fully develops.
I don't know if it will be this season or next, but I do think we're pretty darn close to being a championship contender. The crucial first step is getting in the playoffs, regardless of record, and seeing how we stack up. I am really excited to get this season underway because I think we'll surprise a lot of teams.
Those are the scores from our last four playoff games. And that's about how I figure a playoff game would go this season too.
Out of curiosity, how far back was our 4th playoff appearance? LOL, I might have been in attendance in the late 90's/early 2000's.
The loss at Oakland following the OT win vs the Colts in January of 2001. The next two are home losses to the Ravens, and the last was the loss at Pittsburgh.
If the question includes the knowledge that we'd get blown out then obviously I'd take the 11-6 and hope for the best in 2022.
But, if you're asking me whether I'd trade a couple regular season wins for a Play-off appearance where I thought it was more likely the Dolphins might win, I'd probably go for it.
If we look at last year's win totals we see the AFC is really top-heavy:
If you're telling me the Dolphins could hypothetically get in with 9-wins it signals that something went terribly wrong with the AFC as a whole, which from the Dolphins perspective seems great!
To me, the most likely teams to fall off are the Titans (should DH die), the Steelers (should Roethlisberger disappear) and the Colts (should Wentz bomb).
Well, the whole discussion is a little silly in that respect. I think that the Fins have no hope of getting in without at least ten wins myself. And even that is questionable. The whole thing started when people said that they don't care about the number of wins, just getting into the playoffs.
I saw a video yesterday of Big Ben showing up to camp- and he looks fantastic. He's eating super strict and barely has a belly anymore, so I'm thinking that he finally got serious about a ring before retirement.
More winning will (almost) always get you there.
Less winning may get you there, but it will happen much less often.
Any 3rd grader (who's parents aren't overstated fans of some sort) can tell you that.
So you don't listen to 3rd graders - your loss (from the mouths of babe's) - LOL
He has at least 1 ring already.
I don't think just being out of shape was his or the Steeler's biggest problem though. They have NO offensive line, and Ben has had multiple injury issues. Just losing some belly fat likely isn't going to massively change the equation.
I see them as a team ripe for regression and even missing the playoffs.
I don't see why we care about the number of wins if it doesn't produce a playoff spot, let alone playoff victory. You don't get three years in the NFL without a playoff berth and get called an unqualified success.
If the question is purely and only, do we care more about having double digit wins more or less than a playoff berth with potentially fewer than 10 wins, then the playoff berth should win every time.
Now, I'm not saying we should can Flores if we go 11-6 without a playoff spot, but I would absolutely say the heat be turned WAY up for the following season. You have to produce playoff results, it's literally why we play and try to get wins.
And I think that is pure insanity. Period. *shurg*
How is making the playoffs insanity? What else is the point of playing? It's the goal - get to the dance and give yourself a shot.
To be satisfied with an 11 win, no playoff season you would have to get a time machine to show me 2022 would be our year for a deep run. Otherwise, it's just empty stats. A good record is nice, but it's no guarantee that it will stay the same, let alone improve. I want the tangible result of a successul run to the playoffs with the commensurate experience.
If we want to start adding qualifiers and mitigating circumstances, then we can play the game forever. Just make the damn playoffs. I see NO reason why we can't be this year's Browns. Having a good season while 8 other teams have great seasons isn't enough.
Insanity would be blaming the coaching staff for the unprecedented event of winning 10+ games multiple years in a row while missing the playoffs.
I've never seen it that way since I'm an "Any given Sunday" type of fan...I just want to see our club play great ball and win games. Yes, the playoffs are important, but you get to the playoffs by showing up every week. From what you're saying, the past 20 years haven't mattered at all because we were only average. For me, I have 20 years of great memories.
A team cannot control the overall performance of other divisions as much as it can control their performance in their division.
I would have thought that was obvious.
Bflow looks to be on his way to a HOF coaching carer, tua shows marked improvement, make the playoffs, winplay off game. Thats my order. Phins up
Its a common first reaction as we have not made the playoffs consistently for 2 decades.
We all want the team to be good. We all want them to make the playoffs.
The silly thing to me is saying that a worse record that results in a WC appearance means that they did better somehow.
I agree with you. Generally speaking in a 16 game season 10 wins is enough for the playoffs. I don't know how it is in a 17 game season, but if Miami is 11-6 and misses the playoffs that are due to some tie-breaker shenanigans.
While it sucks missing the playoffs last season at 10-6, I wouldn't trade that to making the playoffs at 8-8.
And as I said in the other thread, I did the research this week, and from the late 1930s forward, no team has ever won 10+ games two years in a row and missed the playoffs in NFL history. Ever. The Dolphins are the only franchise to even have it happen twice from 1992 to now. So if it were to happen again, blaming Flores and company is just absurd. Its bad luck and bad timing, but not their fault.
will happen a bit more going forward as its a 17 game series, but otherwise agree