What player do you take if...

Simmons, Brown, Thomas or Hebert .... all REALLY good choices ...

Equally, if you could trade down and still stay top 10 ... I would consider that as well ... would not trade out of the top 10.

Personally don’t see us trading down from #5 .... I DO see us potentially moving down with 1 of the next 2 .... equally, I could also see us move up a couple picks with either of them depending on how it unfolds ...

BUT I do not see us taking Love at #5 under any circumstance ....

What would be interesting, is IF CIN fell in love with Hebert last week at the Senior Bowl and Burrow is sitting there at #2 ... it COULD happen ....

"hitman8 wrote:

Trade down. Even if Tua is still available at #5. I would trade down.

Hell no! I don't want them to trade down. They need to draft Tua or another impact player at #5. They already have three first round picks to begin with. I don't want them to miss out on an impact player at #5.

"Surfs Up 99 wrote:

That's the one guy I don't want.

I agree! If anyone saw how poorly he played in Rose Bowl, the thought of drafting him should make you cringe.

Call me silly, but your performance in a bowl game is what determines whether or not you have what it takes to make it at the next level, and Herbert folded like a cheap suit

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

I agree! If anyone saw how poorly he played in Rose Bowl, the thought of drafting him should make you cringe.

Call me silly, but your performance in a bowl game is what determines whether or not you have what it takes to make it at the next level, and Herbert folded like a cheap suit

Didn't JaMarcus Russell have a superb Bowl game? It's certainly worth looking at, but as the main determining factor? Meh.

Herbert is a guy who you definitely need the right coach and teacher. He has the potential and raw ability to be elite, but couldn't quite pull it all together. For me, he's a guy that is not a personal favorite but also one I can't heavily criticize if Greer and Flores and Gailey sit him down and have him run through plays, decision-making, etc and determine they can work with him.

Both Love and Herbert seem high ceiling guys but with the potential to be duds, whereas I think both Burrow and Tua also have high ceiling but also a low chance of being a total bust. Our best shot is to just try and make sure we end up with Tua, even if that means we are out the 39 or even 26.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

I agree! If anyone saw how poorly he played in Rose Bowl, the thought of drafting him should make you cringe.

Call me silly, but your performance in a bowl game is what determines whether or not you have what it takes to make it at the next level, and Herbert folded like a cheap suit

To be fair, he did his thing during the Senior Bowl.

AJ Epenesa or Andrew Thomas. Or trade down.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

I agree! If anyone saw how poorly he played in Rose Bowl, the thought of drafting him should make you cringe.

Call me silly, but your performance in a bowl game is what determines whether or not you have what it takes to make it at the next level, and Herbert folded like a cheap suit

He was the MVP or co MVP of the Rose Bowl.

He didn't put up big numbers in the passing game. He didn't have to. He rushed for three touchdowns.

Rushed for 3 TDs? Right, we don't need nothing like THAT around here.

Ok let me change the question slightly. For those of you who said that you'd trade down, what would be the furthest that you'd be willing to trade down and what would be the minimum you'd accept to trade down to there.

"Wilkimania wrote:

Ok let me change the question slightly. For those of you who said that you'd trade down, what would be the furthest that you'd be willing to trade down and what would be the minimum you'd accept to trade down to there.

In my perfect world, I would trade down from #5 with Oakland for both #12 and #19. Those combined have about the same value as 5 on the new chart. That would give us 12, 18, 19 and 26.

And then, again in my perfect world, I would target OTs Wills and Wirfs, along with DL Epenesa and DB Delpit. If we were able to get three of them, I would be delighted.

And part three of the perfect world would be trading #26 for a team desperate to move up into the first round for a second rounder this year, and a first rounder in 2021. We would then have three second rounders and a high third rounder remaining on Day Two to stock up on BPA. And we would then again have three first round picks in 2021, along with two second rounders, and we can start the fun again next year.

"Wilkimania wrote:

Ok let me change the question slightly. For those of you who said that you'd trade down, what would be the furthest that you'd be willing to trade down and what would be the minimum you'd accept to trade down to there.

I would still try to stay ahead of Indy and the Bucs (barring them signing a Rivers/Brady in free agency) and take Love or Herbert. Though I would probably just stick with 5 and do that anyway.

First of all, I gotta say, I love Big Simmons! He has the frame of a DE, the smooth hips of a corner, and the speed of a running back. He is a video game player. I agree that he is worth consideration.

I want to be the voice of reason. The love for Tua is overblown and the hatred for Herbert is equally overblown.

Tua is coming off of a serious injury - he may NEVER be the same. We HAVE to bake that into the Tua conversation. Tua has a history of injuries. The floor for this kid is that he winds up playing 10 games in his career because his body fails him. The kid has the lowest floor of all first round prospects. Also, I know that Tua put gaudy numbers, but you have to watch him play to put things in perspective. There was A LOT of dinking and dunking. Granted, he did hit these passes fairly accurately, and when he did push the ball down field, he displayed the best deep ball accuracy in this year's draft. My understanding is that he had elite character and is the type of guy you would want to make the face of your franchise. Elite leadership and character doesn't help a team very much if the leader is on crutches.

There is no doubt that Herbert is nowhere near Tua in terms of personality. Will Herbert grow and mature as a person or is this a case of trying to get a tiger to change its stripes? This is a valid point. One other thing I would like point out is that his personality is underwhelming, but let's not overhype this. We are not talking about Johnny Manziel here. My other biggest concern is that his tenure at Oregon was underwhelming. It just felt like he lost a lot of big games. I am a guy that absolutely hates the "he's just a winner" evaluation, but I have broken my own rule and thought to myself, "If you can't lift a PAC team to the playoffs, are you really gonna be able to lift an NFL team?" Winning a Rose Bowl and earning the MVP did feel like a step in the right direction, but my concerns still are there. I thought that playing well in the Senior Bowl was promising. I like to get to see how a guy looks around better talent, and winning the MVP sent the right message. Sure it was one game, and there were rules about blitzing and types of coverages allowed. Take it for what you will. It is good to see that he is notching feathers in his cap even at the very end of his career. What I love about Herbert is his frame and arm. I am big on evaluating on traits not production, and he has traits in spades. Instantly, we would have one of the strongest arms in football. Coming out, he reminds me a lot of Josh Allen. I think Herbert is more accurate but less athletic. Finally, the most obvious foil to Tua is that Herbert will be ready as soon as training camp begins. Herbert will be working on timing and working to get in sync with his teammates from day one. Tua will likely be on the sidelines. Objectively, I think Tua's development will be stunted. With his body, a redshirt year might be the best option. Herbert will be ready to roll from the start.

I really think that Tank for Tua has left a lot of people smitten and unable to evaluate the situation objectively.

"tirty8 wrote:

First of all, I gotta say, I love Big Simmons! He has the frame of a DE, the smooth hips of a corner, and the speed of a running back. He is a video game player. I agree that he is worth consideration.

I want to be the voice of reason. The love for Tua is overblown and the hatred for Herbert is equally overblown.

Tua is coming off of a serious injury - he may NEVER be the same. We HAVE to bake that into the Tua conversation. Tua has a history of injuries. The floor for this kid is that he winds up playing 10 games in his career because his body fails him. The kid has the lowest floor of all first round prospects. Also, I know that Tua put gaudy numbers, but you have to watch him play to put things in perspective. There was A LOT of dinking and dunking. Granted, he did hit these passes fairly accurately, and when he did push the ball down field, he displayed the best deep ball accuracy in this year's draft. My understanding is that he had elite character and is the type of guy you would want to make the face of your franchise. Elite leadership and character doesn't help a team very much if the leader is on crutches.

There is no doubt that Herbert is nowhere near Tua in terms of personality. Will Herbert grow and mature as a person or is this a case of trying to get a tiger to change its stripes? This is a valid point. One other thing I would like point out is that his personality is underwhelming, but let's not overhype this. We are not talking about Johnny Manziel here. My other biggest concern is that his tenure at Oregon was underwhelming. It just felt like he lost a lot of big games. I am a guy that absolutely hates the "he's just a winner" evaluation, but I have broken my own rule and thought to myself, "If you can't lift a PAC team to the playoffs, are you really gonna be able to lift an NFL team?" Winning a Rose Bowl and earning the MVP did feel like a step in the right direction, but my concerns still are there. I thought that playing well in the Senior Bowl was promising. I like to get to see how a guy looks around better talent, and winning the MVP sent the right message. Sure it was one game, and there were rules about blitzing and types of coverages allowed. Take it for what you will. It is good to see that he is notching feathers in his cap even at the very end of his career. What I love about Herbert is his frame and arm. I am big on evaluating on traits not production, and he has traits in spades. Instantly, we would have one of the strongest arms in football. Coming out, he reminds me a lot of Josh Allen. I think Herbert is more accurate but less athletic. Finally, the most obvious foil to Tua is that Herbert will be ready as soon as training camp begins. Herbert will be working on timing and working to get in sync with his teammates from day one. Tua will likely be on the sidelines. Objectively, I think Tua's development will be stunted. With his body, a redshirt year might be the best option. Herbert will be ready to roll from the start.

I really think that Tank for Tua has left a lot of people smitten and unable to evaluate the situation objectively.

Not sure how the love for Tua is overblown. When it comes to what’s between his ears, he has the IT factor not to mention his accuracy and anticipation skills. Conversely, Herbert is another check down Charlie because he can’t read defenses.

"tirty8 wrote:

First of all, I gotta say, I love Big Simmons! He has the frame of a DE, the smooth hips of a corner, and the speed of a running back. He is a video game player. I agree that he is worth consideration.

I want to be the voice of reason. The love for Tua is overblown and the hatred for Herbert is equally overblown.

Tua is coming off of a serious injury - he may NEVER be the same. We HAVE to bake that into the Tua conversation. Tua has a history of injuries. The floor for this kid is that he winds up playing 10 games in his career because his body fails him. The kid has the lowest floor of all first round prospects. Also, I know that Tua put gaudy numbers, but you have to watch him play to put things in perspective. There was A LOT of dinking and dunking. Granted, he did hit these passes fairly accurately, and when he did push the ball down field, he displayed the best deep ball accuracy in this year's draft. My understanding is that he had elite character and is the type of guy you would want to make the face of your franchise. Elite leadership and character doesn't help a team very much if the leader is on crutches.

There is no doubt that Herbert is nowhere near Tua in terms of personality. Will Herbert grow and mature as a person or is this a case of trying to get a tiger to change its stripes? This is a valid point. One other thing I would like point out is that his personality is underwhelming, but let's not overhype this. We are not talking about Johnny Manziel here. My other biggest concern is that his tenure at Oregon was underwhelming. It just felt like he lost a lot of big games. I am a guy that absolutely hates the "he's just a winner" evaluation, but I have broken my own rule and thought to myself, "If you can't lift a PAC team to the playoffs, are you really gonna be able to lift an NFL team?" Winning a Rose Bowl and earning the MVP did feel like a step in the right direction, but my concerns still are there. I thought that playing well in the Senior Bowl was promising. I like to get to see how a guy looks around better talent, and winning the MVP sent the right message. Sure it was one game, and there were rules about blitzing and types of coverages allowed. Take it for what you will. It is good to see that he is notching feathers in his cap even at the very end of his career. What I love about Herbert is his frame and arm. I am big on evaluating on traits not production, and he has traits in spades. Instantly, we would have one of the strongest arms in football. Coming out, he reminds me a lot of Josh Allen. I think Herbert is more accurate but less athletic. Finally, the most obvious foil to Tua is that Herbert will be ready as soon as training camp begins. Herbert will be working on timing and working to get in sync with his teammates from day one. Tua will likely be on the sidelines. Objectively, I think Tua's development will be stunted. With his body, a redshirt year might be the best option. Herbert will be ready to roll from the start.

I really think that Tank for Tua has left a lot of people smitten and unable to evaluate the situation objectively.

Jeez, he does NOT have a history of injuries. He had 2 high ankle sprains (which are probably the most common injury in the NFL) for which he had ELECTIVE surgeries to quicken his recovery from said injuries and to limit the severity of future high ankle sprains. These are not an issue.
Yes, the hip is a worry but we are not going to draft him high if any of the medical reports cast doubt on his future career. Also, even if he's not ready to go 100% at training camp, he will still be getting reps as he gets stronger as they can't hit the QB in practice any how, so he's hardly going to be sitting on the sideline for the entire year just reading a play book. By all accounts (as that's all we have at this moment), he will be ready to throw at his pro day, so that will give the scouts a good idea of his recovery and I doubt he won't have a battery of tests beforehand (probably the most any player has ever had), so if there's any doubt, he will drop.
Better evaluators than me have said that Herbert's accuracy is an issue but you then dismiss Tua's accuracy as a bad thing and that he's all dink & dunk, and in the next sentence say that he showed the best deep ball accuracy - which is it? Also, unless the offense is going to change to a hail mary/vertical only offense, his arm (although not as strong as Herbert's) is plenty strong enough.
Also, if Fitz is coming back, there is no chance that he would be the starter in the 1st game anyhow, even before the hip injury and it's unlikely that Herbert would also be a day 1 starter - there is nothing that anybody has seen where that's a likely scenario. More QB's have excelled after sitting for half a/a whole season, otherwise you are just chucking them to the wolves unless the rest of the team around them is elite and they have shown elite traits (which Herbert has not yet per all reports).
Herbert could well be a good/great QB and from what we have seen from reports, his ceiling could be RT - is that enough to take us where we want to be, as there's more to being a QB than size/frame and a strong arm. They & Burrow could all end up as busts, there's just no way of knowing at this time. However, if the best QB is available at 5, frame & arm strength is not the most important trait. You have said it yourself, you want the QB with leadership traits and elite character. I am worried for him that he won't be what the projections were pre-injury but all accounts so far are promising and you are right, Tua may never be the same but Tua at 90% is still better than Herbert at 100%.

The Tua hype isn't really overblown, he's a legitimate elite prospect.

Herbert ... well he should have come out last year when he had a chance to be #1 overall imo. He didn't really show any progression from last year to this, and many say he even regressed. That said, the raw talent that made him a highly rated prospect last year are still present. It's just more of a question of will he be able to put it together or not. For me, Ill just have to trust the staff. If they feel they can get the most from him then I will be fine with the pick. If they pass, I can't really fault them. If we don't end up with one of Tua/Herbert/Love though, I will question what we are doing.

"texanphinatic wrote:

The Tua hype isn't really overblown, he's a legitimate elite prospect.

Herbert ... well he should have come out last year when he had a chance to be #1 overall imo. He didn't really show any progression from last year to this, and many say he even regressed. That said, the raw talent that made him a highly rated prospect last year are still present. It's just more of a question of will he be able to put it together or not. For me, Ill just have to trust the staff. If they feel they can get the most from him then I will be fine with the pick. If they pass, I can't really fault them. If we don't end up with one of Tua/Herbert/Love though, I will question what we are doing.

Agree with that, whichever they feel is the best fit, we will be 100% behind - Flores has earned some trust after this year. However, if they decide to roll this year, there is plenty of QB talent next year apparently - it's not just about Lawrence.

I am going to respond to each part of your response:

Jeez, he does NOT have a history of injuries. He had 2 high ankle sprains (which are probably the most common injury in the NFL) for which he had ELECTIVE surgeries to quicken his recovery from said injuries and to limit the severity of future high ankle sprains. These are not an issue.

Yes, the hip is a worry but we are not going to draft him high if any of the medical reports cast doubt on his future career. Also, even if he's not ready to go 100% at training camp, he will still be getting reps as he gets stronger as they can't hit the QB in practice any how, so he's hardly going to be sitting on the sideline for the entire year just reading a play book. By all accounts (as that's all we have at this moment), he will be ready to throw at his pro day, so that will give the scouts a good idea of his recovery and I doubt he won't have a battery of tests beforehand (probably the most any player has ever had), so if there's any doubt, he will drop.

Here is where I think you are misreading the situation. You are working on the assumption that all teams will have the same medical grades. It will be a wide variety of teams with different opinions. Remember when our medical team said take Culpepper over Brees. I am no doctor, but the hip thing in sports scares me a lot. More often than not, this does not go in the right direction.

Better evaluators than me have said that Herbert's accuracy is an issue but you then dismiss Tua's accuracy as a bad thing and that he's all dink & dunk, and in the next sentence say that he showed the best deep ball accuracy - which is it? Also, unless the offense is going to change to a hail mary/vertical only offense, his arm (although not as strong as Herbert's) is plenty strong enough.

Herbert's accuracy is sort of an issue. He regularly makes more challenging throws as he pushes the ball down field. Sometimes he flat out misses.

In one sentence, I said that he has the best deep ball accuracy because he does.
I also said that he dinks and dunks a lot because he does.
I implore you to go watch some Bama film. He makes a TON of throws that every other QB in the draft would make too. That is his bread and butter. I really think Bama uses the dink and dunk to draw defenses up than exploits them by taking a chance deep. Tua 100% can connect on those passes. He puts great touch on those passes.

Also, if Fitz is coming back, there is no chance that he would be the starter in the 1st game anyhow, even before the hip injury and it's unlikely that Herbert would also be a day 1 starter - there is nothing that anybody has seen where that's a likely scenario. More QB's have excelled after sitting for half a/a whole season, otherwise you are just chucking them to the wolves unless the rest of the team around them is elite and they have shown elite traits (which Herbert has not yet per all reports).

I agree with your sentiments on sitting a QB, but that is not the modern game. The game within the game is starting these young QBs ASAP so that you can use cap space on tools to get these guys help. Once their rookie deal is up, you will have to spend that money on them. The rookie window from outward appearances may look like win-now mode. That is just the reality of the salary cap.

Herbert could well be a good/great QB and from what we have seen from reports, his ceiling could be RT - is that enough to take us where we want to be, as there's more to being a QB than size/frame and a strong arm. They & Burrow could all end up as busts, there's just no way of knowing at this time. However, if the best QB is available at 5, frame & arm strength is not the most important trait. You have said it yourself, you want the QB with leadership traits and elite character. I am worried for him that he won't be what the projections were pre-injury but all accounts so far are promising and you are right, Tua may never be the same but Tua at 90% is still better than Herbert at 100%.

I know poo-pooing RT is all the rage around here, but let's clear one thing up. When all is said and done, RT will wind up being a ten year starter in the league. If you take a historical approach to that, it is VERY good. Most guys do not log that kind of career. Even look at his own draft class. Andrew Luck certainly had higher highs, but his body failed him too. RGIII has had the length but not the success. Again, his body failed him. As they say, "The best ability is availability." I really think a revisit of this class is warranted. Injuries could happen to anyone, but teams should protect themselves against injury. Tua's situation is scary. Herbert has a big frame that can take hits.

"texanphinatic wrote:

The Tua hype isn't really overblown, he's a legitimate elite prospect.

Herbert ... well he should have come out last year when he had a chance to be #1 overall imo. He didn't really show any progression from last year to this, and many say he even regressed. That said, the raw talent that made him a highly rated prospect last year are still present. It's just more of a question of will he be able to put it together or not. For me, Ill just have to trust the staff. If they feel they can get the most from him then I will be fine with the pick. If they pass, I can't really fault them. If we don't end up with one of Tua/Herbert/Love though, I will question what we are doing.

What about Tua makes him elite as a prospect?

"tirty8 wrote:

What about Tua makes him elite as a prospect?

I've been asking that for more than a year. People parrot that he has extreme football intelligence, but I don't really know how you could say that with certainty. He played on what was essentially a college all-star team, and yet when I watch him, he rarely looks special. He looks like the kind of first or second round quarterback prospect that I see almost every year.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I've been asking that for more than a year. People parrot that he has extreme football intelligence, but I don't really know how you could say that with certainty. He played on what was essentially a college all-star team, and yet when I watch him, he rarely looks special. He looks like the kind of first or second round quarterback prospect that I see almost every year.

This "he played on a great team" garbage just needs to die. Yes, he did. So did Lawrence. So did Burrow. So did Fields. Wow, good teams and good QBs often go together.

As for why he is good prospect, just use Google, I'm not going to go paste scouting reports in here. He's been a largely consensus elite prospect for years and nothing he has done seems to warrant removing that label. If you hate the guy, so be it, but let's dispense with the notion he is somehow massively controversial and overrated. I am sure next year we will be hearing the same b.s. about Lawrence - it's just what often happens to elite players - they get broken down excessively and people look for reasons to dismiss.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I've been asking that for more than a year. People parrot that he has extreme football intelligence, but I don't really know how you could say that with certainty. He played on what was essentially a college all-star team, and yet when I watch him, he rarely looks special. He looks like the kind of first or second round quarterback prospect that I see almost every year.

I'm an Alabama hater so I didn't start evaluating him expecting to like him. If anything, I had a bias against him b/c of his team and Saban. But his footwork is arguably the best and most consistent I have ever seen. Many of the greatest evaluators I've known will tell you that footwork is what you look at to begin any QB evaluation. (If you read or watch any of the stuff with Walsh evaluating Montana from before he was drafted, that's most of what Walsh talks about).

B/c of that great footwork Tua is consistently accurate. His accuracy rates over multiple seasons and multiple systems are historically great. And even though he had great WRs, they weren't big. They were smaller, faster guys. Those types of targets require more accuracy from your QB. You may get inflated TD numbers from that type of WR, but high accuracy rates is tougher. And Tua was accurate to all areas of the field. People who only watched this season, where he was in a west coast system criticize him for throwing so many slants, but anybody who watched his film from last year saw him in a deep throw offense. And BTW that was a change from the heavy RPO system he was in the year before.

The ability to excel in multiple systems also supports his football intelligence. You see prospects like Rosen, who was supposed to be smart, but excuses were made b/c he'd been in multiple systems. Well here's a guy who put up historically great numbers despite that same handicap. He also is a great decision-maker. All QBs make poor decisions at times but Tua does so at a very low rate. There are also subtle things you see Tua do in terms of looking off defenders or throwing to different spots or with different arm angles that most novice evaluators wouldn't notice but are clear evidence of a QB who has an advanced understanding of football and his offense.

Also b/c of the footwork (see how important that is?), he stays on balance and gets the ball out incredibly quickly. That's valuable in any system but particularly important in most of what Chan Gailey does.

I would also cite his work ethic. Now you always hear that every prospect has a great work ethic, but I tend to discount that as lip service unless I see it translate to the field. Reality is that being a top prospect rarely happens without a great work ethic, but having a great work ethic compared to the greatest NFL players is another level so I need evidence before I look at the talk as more than lip service. The first obvious evidence is that he excelled in three different systems. Football IQ helps, but you don't do that without putting in the work and he clearly did.
That honestly would be enough for me to believe that a prospect has a great work ethic, but I also recently saw a piece on the Elite 11. That's where you take the top 11 rated HS QBs and put them in a camp, coached by Trent Dilfer, and there's some sort of competition to sort out the #1 guy. Tua came into that as the #11 guy. At the beginning you see Dilfer ripping him for being nothing more than a good athlete with a strong arm. And telling him he'll never succeed unless he learns to pass from the pocket (primarily footwork and decision-making). In this competition there is some break during the camp. During that break, Tua apparently took to practicing his footwork on his own and when he came back ended up winning the competition. Dilfer even said that it was a performance he would put up there with Andrew Luck, which prior to that had been the best QB prospect Dilfer had ever seen.

His leadership is another thing I would list as elite. We all saw how much of an impact Ryan Fitzpatrick's leadership had on our team this season. And by all accounts, Tua is one of those guys that is a natural leader. It's been cited repeatedly during his time at Alabama, but it was even mentioned in that Elite 11 video. One of the other coaches there kept talking about how Tua led his team and got the best out of everyone of his guys. Many people tend to discount leadership, but I don't expect the Dolphins to be among them.

I also see him as very capable of making plays out of the scheme. He isn't a great runner, but he's certainly mobile. He moves well in the pocket and throws accurately on the run. I don't see this part of his game as elite, but it's certainly not a weakness. It's the same thing I would say about his arm strength. I don't see it as special, but I see it as above average for your typical NFL QB. I believe he is the best and most well rounded prospect since Luck. (I also had Kyler Murray in that range, but the balance was different as Murray had/has elite running potential). In the end I see his injury history as the only legitimate question mark. And if things are still looking good prior to the draft then I take that risk for a prospect of this caliber.

Btw here is a scouting report on Tua from an evaluator whose opinion I respect:

• Arm Accuracy -

• Some surreal ball placement in short spaces and vertically. Comfortable throwing to open shoulder and letting his receivers in and attack the football. Deliberate placement to protect receivers or set up RAC opportunities to all levels. He's a precision passer vs. tight man or zipping between zone defenders.

• Decision Making -

• He's had like 5 total brain farts in his entire career. He's comfortable reading full field and willing to trust reads to come across the field without hesitation. Highly intelligent passer who makes strong reads in real time. That said, would love to see him quicker to concede and move to check down.

• Progressions -

• Crisp. He understands the value his eyes hold and moves them accordingly to manipulate zone defenders. He's playing chess with his eyes, not checkers. Has been exposed to no shortage of reads and concepts, as boosted by addition of Steve Sarkisian to coaching staff for 2019 season.

• Anticipation -

• Will regularly pull the trigger as receivers hit the top of their stem. He's deadly accurate in these scenarios as well, feathering passes effortlessly into space for receivers to catch in stride. Feel for pressure at the LOS and work within the pocket to anticipate open area in the pocket yields clean throwing platforms.

• Poise -

• Has created some magic within the pocket and keeps eyes down field without bother. He'll ramp up aggressiveness as needed as game situations call for urgency and he'll keep swinging without fear. Has created some big play magic throughout the course of his storied career on the biggest of stages.

• Arm Strength -

• Does he have elite strength? No. Is his arm strength a problem? Definitely not. He's got plenty of juice from within the pocket and generates desirable heat on the ball when he gets down hill to throw on the run. Has ability to squeeze tight throws in tight windows with zip but more so because he's so accurate.

• Pocket Awareness -

• Pretty sure he's got a camera installed in the back of his helmet. Innate feel for rushers crashing in off the edge and shows the foot quickness and feel for where to slide — and when to slide — to break that first arriving defender's angle and offer chance to reset or otherwise flush the pocket and into space.

• Mechanics -

• Clean. Appreciate that he's able to drop the arm angle and throw around bodies as a shorter passer. He's got quick delivery and will do well to zip throws out under duress and allow maximum time for receivers to uncover. Has no troubles with throwing motion and delivery to throw in condensed space.

• Footwork -

• He does well to stay balanced when standing tall to survey from the pocket and like how he gets downhill when forced to roll out and throw while on the move. Will sit on his back foot vs. power rushes inside and fail to get on top of the ball, forcing him to miss high.

• Mobility -

• Not a killer on the ground and given his durability questions, there's going to be some hesitancy in getting him involved with run concepts, although 2017/2018 film featured some QB sweeps that were run with success. A fine athlete who can beat you if he breaks contain versus man coverage.

  ---

• Best Trait -

• Football IQ

• Worst Trait -

• Durability

• Best Film -

• South Carolina (2019)

• Worst Film -

• Clemson (2018)

• Red Flags - 2018/2019 high ankle sprains, 2019 dislocated hip

• Player Summary -

• Tua Tagovailoa's only question falls onto his durability after suffering multiple ankle injuries and a dislocated hip. His exposure and mastery of 2018 vertical offense and 2019 WCO concepts in Alabama offense provide easy projection to the pros — he's an elite passer with rare intangibles, short area quickness and accuracy. Tagovailoa has never met a stage that was too big, either. This is a face of a franchise player who, if healthy, will be an elite quarterback soon before long.

• Updated: 01/10/2020

"thetylernator wrote:

Absolutely not trade down, unless it's only a couple picks.

In your scenario, there are five legitimate blue-chip prospects on the board.

Isaiah Simmons, S/LB
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Jeffrey Okudah, CB
Derrick Brown, DT
Andrew Thomas, OT*, if this isn't NYG's pick

Passing on any of these five to trade outside of the top ten would haunt this franchise.

I don't know the draft field at a true analyst's level so I can only speculate, but for me the biggest thing in ANY DRAFT is value. For instance, we shouldn't have landed Tunsil or Minkah at the spots we did and that's what set up this season for better/worse...they were DEFINITELY the top players on the board though when they were taken and excellent overall value.

So if one of your 5-6 names there are well above the next ten available players talent-wise, then I'd pick from that list and hold off on a QB (unless Tua/Burrow is there...then I'd take the QB since they're rated on that elite level as well). But if the Fins don't feel there's a huge talent gap then I think they should trade down for an extra 1st or 2nd rounder. In my mind every pick has to be value, value, value regardless of position.

One other interesting tidbit, I read the other day that the Dolphins said they were nowhere finished with Rosen and he progressed a lot over the past year. So if they feel like he has a decent chance of being the man, then I hope we draft Jalen Hurts or another project QB that can learn in the system over the next couple of seasons. Tua would still make sense as well but again, it goes back to value overall...if you think Rosen is the man, then only take Tua if he falls to you. If you're not sure or doubtful, then maybe you move up to get him (or Burrow) so that's off your needs list. I only see us making that move if they're in love with one or the other though...that's the only way we move up.

The other thing worth mentioning is that Cincinnati has moved back a little in their Burrow-love and said to be closely evaluating 4 total QB's...so there's a chance they actually take Tua #1 overall since he has several years of production. I'd personally love to see that because it throws off the entire draft for everyone...I just like the drama and I have a feeling that we'd jump to #2 in a hurry for Burrow. I'm really hoping our front office is preparing for that potential scenario though so they don't overpay in the moment.

So here's my guesses-

If we love Rosen, grab Odukah or Thomas

If we really like Rosen, grab Tua is he falls or Herbert/Love with our middle 1st if they're there). Grab Hurts late 1st or in the 2nd if we miss on all three. Then get Odukah/Thomas with #5.

If we're unsure on Rosen, move up for Burrow/Tua and possibly use Rosen as trade bait. If Cinci takes Tua #1 though, then consider jumping to #2 for Burrow.

"tirty8 wrote:

I am going to respond to each part of your response:

Here is where I think you are misreading the situation. You are working on the assumption that all teams will have the same medical grades. It will be a wide variety of teams with different opinions. Remember when our medical team said take Culpepper over Brees. I am no doctor, but the hip thing in sports scares me a lot. More often than not, this does not go in the right direction.

Herbert's accuracy is sort of an issue. He regularly makes more challenging throws as he pushes the ball down field. Sometimes he flat out misses.

In one sentence, I said that he has the best deep ball accuracy because he does.
I also said that he dinks and dunks a lot because he does.
I implore you to go watch some Bama film. He makes a TON of throws that every other QB in the draft would make too. That is his bread and butter. I really think Bama uses the dink and dunk to draw defenses up than exploits them by taking a chance deep. Tua 100% can connect on those passes. He puts great touch on those passes.

I agree with your sentiments on sitting a QB, but that is not the modern game. The game within the game is starting these young QBs ASAP so that you can use cap space on tools to get these guys help. Once their rookie deal is up, you will have to spend that money on them. The rookie window from outward appearances may look like win-now mode. That is just the reality of the salary cap.

I know poo-pooing RT is all the rage around here, but let's clear one thing up. When all is said and done, RT will wind up being a ten year starter in the league. If you take a historical approach to that, it is VERY good. Most guys do not log that kind of career. Even look at his own draft class. Andrew Luck certainly had higher highs, but his body failed him too. RGIII has had the length but not the success. Again, his body failed him. As they say, "The best ability is availability." I really think a revisit of this class is warranted. Injuries could happen to anyone, but teams should protect themselves against injury. Tua's situation is scary. Herbert has a big frame that can take hits.

You are possibly right re the medical reports but in terms of Brees and Culpepper, you can understand why the decision was made, as the shoulder was bad and could have been a worse idea than the knee. Hindsight has not been kind to the Fins medical staff that made that decision, especially as the operating specialist gave Brees a glowing endorsement. No idea if it's the same staff now though.

Herbert's accuracy is the big issue, as it has been noted that a 3rd of his throws are screens, so his accuracy should be much higher than it is but even then, he doesn't put the ball in the best area, which is something that Tua does routinely.

Understand re the cap hit but the majority of the more recent successful QB's sat for at least part of their 1st year - Mahomes, Lamar, Goff, Garropollo, Rodgers, Watson, Baker, Prescott, Lock. Also, if you get him in the 1st round, don't they get a 5th year option? As I said, there's no point chucking them in unless they can show something or they have a good solid team round them

Not dissing RT but Herbert's ceiling is Ryan, the same issues are going to flare up ie pocket presence, not being able to put a team on his back. RT wasn't helped by the coaches as he was chucked in before he was really ready and then never had the team around him for him to succeed.

Again, size doesn't always equate to robustness, as Luck is the prime example. However, with the rules as they are, QB's that are not deemed as being ideal size will have success. Like RT, RG3 was let down by his coaches, as he wrecked his knee when he probably shouldn't have played. Admittedly, he likely was overdrafted due to the panic buying on QB's.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

I agree! If anyone saw how poorly he played in Rose Bowl, the thought of drafting him should make you cringe.

Call me silly, but your performance in a bowl game is what determines whether or not you have what it takes to make it at the next level, and Herbert folded like a cheap suit

"Sceeto wrote:

He was the MVP or co MVP of the Rose Bowl.

He didn't put up big numbers in the passing game. He didn't have to. He rushed for three touchdowns.

Oh. He was also MVP of the Senior Bowl.

More like he folded like an Armani.