Are you referring to Flores supposed preference to draft Herbert instead of Tua? Without having seen Herbert play for the Dolphins it's impossible to know whether Miami would have had more success the past 4 seasons with Herbert. We do know that the Chargers team performance has been bad and for that reason I think the Chargers made a mistake signing Herbert to a long term multi hundred million dollar contract. A year ago the Dolphins were smart to not extend Tua . If (for whatever the reason) Grier likes Tua the smart move at this time is for him to play the 2024 season on the 5th year option of his rookie contract. This will give Grier the flexibility a year from now to either franchise-tag Tua for the 2025 season, sign him to a longer term contract, or cut him.
So you’d rather pay Tua $25m+ this season rather than extend one of the best QB’s statistically in the NFL and pay him around $10m/year over the next few years?
I believe Tua's rookie contract 5th year option salary is $23 million for the 2024 season and I am ok with the Dolphins doing that. I don't know what you mean by "pay him around $10/million a year for the next few years". If Tua plays on the 5th year option then a year from now the Dolphins can franchise tag him for the 2025 season, or sign him to a new long term contract, or cut him. If a year from now the team signs him to a long term contract I believe the dollar amount should be determined by the Dolphins team performance of the 2024 season.
If his option is picked up his cap hit is around $23m+, if he’s tagged he’ll get around $25m. If he is extended his cap hit over the next few years would be around $10m. Maybe ~$15m depending on his contract and signing bonuses.
Yes, I understand it is common practice for teams to defer money so that impact to salary cap is postponed, but I consider that to be a nonsense justification for overpaying quarterbacks. All factors considered I believe the best sense strategy for most teams to follow is having the QB position be a rookie contract player. The League Rules are such that teams using this strategy can get 1 to 6 years of QB production for relatively little money. My best guess is that for the 2024 season playing Tua-on-his-5th-year-option the team results will be the same or worse as the 2022 and 2023 seasons. So, a year from now the Dolphins will be free to cut Tua (and maybe the coaching staff as well), without the burden of long term contracts. If my guess is wrong and the Tua-McD led Dolphins somehow manage to win some playoff games, that's a good position to be in and time then to talk about new contracts.
There’s just no getting around paying a franchise QB. Even if you get lucky and hit on a QB that you can win a SB with on their rookie contract you’re still going to have to pay for him. Unless you think those QB’s should just be traded away before they get another contract? And chance is not on your side if you’re expecting to hit on a rookie QB and win a SB with them getting paid so little. I think Russell Wilson was the last and only QB in the past 15 or so years to do it. Burrows got to one, of course, but even if you count him that doesn’t move the needle much. It’s like trying to catch rain in a colander. Add to the fact that Burrows is now the NFL’s highest paid player by AAV and he can’t even stay on the field and we see just how hard it is. The statistics show that a QB’s pay needs to be no more than about 13% of the cap for any given team. That’s the sweet spot where you still have money to pay other players. That means a QB’s cap hit should be about a $30m cap hit. If Tua is extended, and gets the money most think he’d get, the contract could easily give the Dolphins an out in 2 years or so if he regresses and also keep his cap hit relatively low. Extending Tua is the right move at this point. He’s proven to be a top QB (even though some disagree because they wrongly use wins as a bar for individual players) and should be paid like one. The cap, and thus salaries, will only increase and unless we want to find ourselves competing with other teams to keep him, think Wilkins, he will get a new contract.
Except the logic is to get rid of a pro-bowl QB for the chance of finding a pro-bowl QB as a rookie. Which seems to be easy according to many on this board since every team tries to do that every year and maybe 1 or 2 get lucky and it works out for them. Or get Kirk Cousins, a 35 year old QB who's won 4 playoff games in 12 years. Yes sound logic indeed.
The same guy said that the Pats were set for the next 10 yrs with Mac Jones and Tua should be traded for Justin Fields (who is about to be released in Chicago because no one else even wants him and is willing to give up anything). “Logic” lol
Well can't imagine he would get released but yeah there is no real demand. I think some people just saw him put up some good fantasy football numbers and assumed he was good. He would need to take a massive leap as a passer going into year 4. The idea he could or should compete with Tua is comical.
Franchise tagging a quarterback is VERY risky. A player is is franchise tagged is paid the average of the top 5 paid players in that position for the year. You do realize there are some STUPIDLY high salaries on some of these quarterbacks, don’t you? By extending Tua NOW, the salary cap hit is greatly reduced as a hefty portion of that first year will likely be a signing bonus, which doesn’t affect the cap…and there are always caveats in those contracts with outs for the team.
Doubt it as he couldn't find a competent offensive coordinator to work with him. If Herbert was drafted and had to work with the same offence that Fizpatrick/Tua had to work with the guys who want rid of Tua would have been wanting rid of Herbert after a couple of years as well. You have to remember that Herbert walked into an offence with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekler on it, not DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Myles Gaskin.
It blows my mind that anyone would actively want to trade for Fields and have him start just because he can run around a bit. As a passer he's pretty bad, ratings of 73.2, 85.2 and 86.3 with 40 TD's and 30 ints over 3 seasons. He's also been sacked 135 times (12.4% rate) and his line last year was actually 2nd in pass block win rate while he had a 10.6% sack rate. The only other starters in double figure percentage for sack rate were Tannehill, Bryce Young, Zach Wilson, Bailey Zappe and both Giants QB's. Even Sam Howell managed a 9.6% while throwing a shedload more passes. Meanwhile the top passing QB's had a sack rate in the 4-6% range. He's just not a good QB and it's extremely unlikely he ever will be.
If we're trading for a Quarterback, Fields would not be my first choice. I'll get killed for saying this, but Sam Howell would be my pick as far as realistic options available.
Free Agency has cleared up our draft priorities. Safety, Cornerback, inside Linebacker and tight end have all been improved from last year. Running back and QB are exact same and running it back. We are clearly worse and leaking oil at 1)Offensive Line, 2) Defensive line and 3) edge rushers (mostly due to injury at edge…) Those are the 3 needs we are primed to address through the draft.
Yeah Commanders gave him away for next to nothing. I wouldn't have minded him being the backup, he's got a good arm but just holds the ball too long. Not sure if that can be coached out of him or not, you would hope it could be.
Wide receiver is definitely on the table in the first round. I heard they're interested in bringing back Berrios, but that doesn't excite anyone. And, you can't count on Ezukanma yet. I also think Hunter Renfrow would fit like a glove in this offense if you can get him to a team friendly deal.
I'm hopeful we trade down and pick up another 2nd or 3rd round pick. It looks like we're following the Ravens model of picking up DL on cheap contracts. Going forward we will need a young guy to be ready for 2025. WRs we lack depth and that was exposed when Waddle missed games. Looks to be a deeper draft for this position. OT/OG. Finding someone who can play for Armstead when he misses time is critical for a full season of success. Luckily it again looks like we will have solid options at this positions in rounds 1 and 2. If we're able to trade back and pick up 3 players who can fill out these needs Grier will have knocked it out of the park.
The deeper we get into the offseason and the closer the draft appears on the horizon, I’m still all about the offensive line and still all in on Jackson Powers. In another thread, I spoke of the physicality that’s been missing on defense since the days of Taylor and Thomas. The same can be said of the offensive line. I can’t remember the last time the Dolphins had an offensive line that dominated in the trenches, pushing the line of scrimmage 5 yards downfield allowing the running back an instant 5 yard gain. In this day and age of speed and fancy, deceptive scheming, sometimes you have just got to get back to the utter BASICS of hard nosed, smash mouth football, instilling intimidation in the opposing defensive line that you’re going to knock their Richard into the dirt. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if you have a powerhouse offensive line, everything else on offense falls into place.
JPJ, Fuatanu and Barton are all immediate day 1 starters and likely plus players. However, it's also possible we look to take a tackle and stash them at LG for a season. Depends on what the team thinks is the potential upside of guys like Mims who should be around when we pick. At edge, I think it's worth remembering that though they were injured, the team's primary investment is Chubb and Phillips, so they may not look to take one early. That said, Verse and Latu are intriguing if they fall. More likely is trying to find a stud DT with Byron Murphy or Johnny Newton. I think we will have plenty of options and interesting decisions. One thing I notice is that the spots we haven't yet filled ... are spots that are considered to be deep in the draft. Not a coincidence. Also altogether possible we trade down to add a 2 or 3.
I guess the most likely scenario is that were Tua to play 2024 on his 5th-year option the Dolphins would finish in the range of 7 to 9 wins and a year from now he would be a free agent QB ready to sign a 1-year $10 million "prove it" contract similar to what Sam Darnold has done.
To acquire Fields Pittsburgh gave up a 5th round draft pick. The Dolphins absolutely should have bettered that offer to secure his services. For example, Tua could play 2024 on his 5th year option with Fields coming off the bench as a dual threat QB.
Lol… you almost had me here. Then I realized, no serious person would suggest that the Dolphins give up one of their limited draft picks for a guy no one wanted.
And a pick is just a crap shoot. See the article below. the football-following world becomes more and more excited about the NFL prospects of quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels and Bo Mix and Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix, Jr., here’s a counter to the notion that the 2024 draft is loaded with can’t-miss prospects. In 2021, most of the five quarterbacks taken in the top 15 selections have missed. Last year, the third overall pick — 49ers quarterback Trey Lance — was jettisoned to the Cowboys for a fourth-round pick. Last week, the fifteenth selection, Mac Jones of the Patriots, was dumped to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick. Now, Justin Fields (who was the eleventh overall pick that year) has been sent to the Steelers for a sixth-round pick, in 2025. Three of those quarterbacks were picked before Micah Parsons. (D’oh.) Meanwhile, the Jets might have to give a sixth-round pick to get someone to take quarterback Zach Wilson’s $5.4 million guaranteed compensation package off their hands. (He was the consensus second overall pick that year.) That’s four of the five, either traded for far less than their draft status or, so far, not even tradable. The only exception, Trevor Lawrence, was dancing on the edge of becoming a franchise quarterback until the Jaguars collapsed down the stretch last year. Now, a fourth season might be needed to decide whether he has lived up to his status as the first overall pick in the draft. Actually, the entire class has been, well, not good through three years. Others drafted in 2021 were Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills, Ian Book, and Sam Ehlinger. (The undrafted class contains no Tony Romos or Kurt Warners, either.) This year, it seems as if several teams are prepared to pin their hopes on a rookie quarterback. And while this year’s class could be a bumper crop, the 2021 harvest has been a disaster for every team that took a quarterback, other than Jacksonville. As the Draft Industrial Complex approaches the annual late April crescendo of proclamations that every pick is a winner, it makes sense to remember that it’s still a crapshoot, and at best a coin flip.
The odds of the Dolphins having an 11 or 12 win 2024 season are about 10-1, maybe less than 10%. Remember, for the 2022 and 2023 seasons the team went all-in with a stacked roster and fell well short of playoff wins or a Super Bowl appearance.
What's the point of the QB-draft content here? Everybody knows that most QB's drafted into the NFL do not stick, and it is rare that s 1st round draft pick QB has a 5+ year career as a starter.
Umm, yeah. What happens when the Dolphins win 11+ games again? Fields would be an absolute disaster in this offence. Stop looking at his highlight plays (which are all runs btw) and actually watch him trying to play QB. There is a reason no one offered anything substantial for him. Miami won 11 games last year while dealing with a ridiculous amount of injuries and having the worst interior OL in football for the last 5 games or so. They were regularly missing 9 starters going into games at the end of the season yet you think there is less than 10% chance they could do it again? And for the last time, the team didn't go "all in". They haven't even went "all in" this season either. They were aggressive last season in building the roster but it wasn't all in. This year they are being less aggressive and making sure the window last another 2 or even 3 years.
No, the smart move would be to sign Tua to a contract extension, paying him the money he deserves based on his actual performance, and like him or not, Tua HAS produced. There’s no question about the numbers he’s put up, but as his critics have pointed out, we’ve lost games against upper echelon opponents and he lost his first playoff game…albeit in a frozen tundra that’s causing some games to have frostbite amputations but nevertheless… You sign Tua, extend out his contract, pay him with a good portion in signing bonuses to reduce the cap hit and you can have a performance clause that allows Miami to cut ties with him after 2 years if his critics evaluations come to fruition. The comparison of Tua to Darnold is a silly one in my opinion. Darnold not only didn’t win, he was never a highlight reel of on file’s performance.
