What to do with the 1st round pick?

"StaleTacos wrote:

Trade up. Draft QB.

That’s not going to happen.

I - with along with everyone else here - would love JPJ.

One thing that I would consider that would cause considerable outrage is actually considering a WR here. I think that will put us in a good position to part ways with Hill after the 2025 season while simultaneously helping us win now. We are losing talent on defense that I simply do not think we will be able to make up. I think that we should at least consider doubling down on Mikey, and just saying that our defense is "let's score 40 points per game" until we get Chubb and Phillips back. Plus I think that there will be a lot of good WR talent at that spot in the draft.

"texanphinatic wrote:

Again, draft players whom will actually play and help us. Second tier QBs have some of the lowest hit rates, assuming they even see a field. Hard pass.

Personally as well, as much as I wouldn't do it, I would definitely take either Penix or McCarthy over Nix.

Which positions have the highest "hit rates"? OL and DL?
I certainly agree that a goal for each draft should be to acquire players who will be a starter for 4 or more years.

"Phil Hutchings wrote:

That’s not going to happen.

Nope. Grier is pot committed to Tua, or otherwise he has to admit Flores was right all along.

"StaleTacos wrote:

Nope. Grier is pot committed to Tua, or otherwise he has to admit Flores was right all along.

I know admitting you’re wrong is hard for you, but I seriously doubt Grier is risking everything over a made up scenario you’ve got cemented into your head.

Grier has faith in Tua because Tua has been a top QB over the past 2 seasons.

"StaleTacos wrote:

Nope. Grier is pot committed to Tua, or otherwise he has to admit Flores was right all along.

Are you referring to Flores supposed preference to draft Herbert instead of Tua?
Without having seen Herbert play for the Dolphins it's impossible to know whether Miami would have had more success the past 4 seasons with Herbert. We do know that the Chargers team performance has been bad and for that reason I think the Chargers made a mistake signing Herbert to a long term multi hundred million dollar contract.
A year ago the Dolphins were smart to not extend Tua . If (for whatever the reason) Grier likes Tua the smart move at this time is for him to play the 2024 season on the 5th year option of his rookie contract. This will give Grier the flexibility a year from now to either franchise-tag Tua for the 2025 season, sign him to a longer term contract, or cut him.

"Aquapride wrote:

Are you referring to Flores supposed preference to draft Herbert instead of Tua?
Without having seen Herbert play for the Dolphins it's impossible to know whether Miami would have had more success the past 4 seasons with Herbert. We do know that the Chargers team performance has been bad and for that reason I think the Chargers made a mistake signing Herbert to a long term multi hundred million dollar contract.
A year ago the Dolphins were smart to not extend Tua . If (for whatever the reason) Grier likes Tua the smart move at this time is for him to play the 2024 season on the 5th year option of his rookie contract. This will give Grier the flexibility a year from now to either franchise-tag Tua for the 2025 season, sign him to a longer term contract, or cut him.

So you’d rather pay Tua $25m+ this season rather than extend one of the best QB’s statistically in the NFL and pay him around $10m/year over the next few years?

"danmarino wrote:

So you’d rather pay Tua $25m+ this season rather than extend one of the best QB’s statistically in the NFL and pay him around $10m/year over the next few years?

I believe Tua's rookie contract 5th year option salary is $23 million for the 2024 season and I am ok with the Dolphins doing that.
I don't know what you mean by "pay him around $10/million a year for the next few years".
If Tua plays on the 5th year option then a year from now the Dolphins can franchise tag him for the 2025 season, or sign him to a new long term contract, or cut him. If a year from now the team signs him to a long term contract I believe the dollar amount should be determined by the Dolphins team performance of the 2024 season.

"Aquapride wrote:

I believe Tua's rookie contract 5th year option salary is $23 million for the 2024 season and I am ok with the Dolphins doing that.
I don't know what you mean by "pay him around $10/million a year for the next few years".
If Tua plays on the 5th year option then a year from now the Dolphins can franchise tag him for the 2025 season, or sign him to a new long term contract, or cut him. If a year from now the team signs him to a long term contract I believe the dollar amount should be determined by the Dolphins team performance of the 2024 season.

If his option is picked up his cap hit is around $23m+, if he’s tagged he’ll get around $25m. If he is extended his cap hit over the next few years would be around $10m. Maybe ~$15m depending on his contract and signing bonuses.

"danmarino wrote:

If his option is picked up his cap hit is around $23m+, if he’s tagged he’ll get around $25m. If he is extended his cap hit over the next few years would be around $10m. Maybe ~$15m depending on his contract and signing bonuses.

Yes, I understand it is common practice for teams to defer money so that impact to salary cap is postponed, but I consider that to be a nonsense justification for overpaying quarterbacks.
All factors considered I believe the best sense strategy for most teams to follow is having the QB position be a rookie contract player. The League Rules are such that teams using this strategy can get 1 to 6 years of QB production for relatively little money.
My best guess is that for the 2024 season playing Tua-on-his-5th-year-option the team results will be the same or worse as the 2022 and 2023 seasons. So, a year from now the Dolphins will be free to cut Tua (and maybe the coaching staff as well), without the burden of long term contracts. If my guess is wrong and the Tua-McD led Dolphins somehow manage to win some playoff games, that's a good position to be in and time then to talk about new contracts.

"Aquapride wrote:

Yes, I understand it is common practice for teams to defer money so that impact to salary cap is postponed, but I consider that to be a nonsense justification for overpaying quarterbacks.
All factors considered I believe the best sense strategy for most teams to follow is having the QB position be a rookie contract player. The League Rules are such that teams using this strategy can get 1 to 6 years of QB production for relatively little money.
My best guess is that for the 2024 season playing Tua-on-his-5th-year-option the team results will be the same or worse as the 2022 and 2023 seasons. So, a year from now the Dolphins will be free to cut Tua (and maybe the coaching staff as well), without the burden of long term contracts. If my guess is wrong and the Tua-McD led Dolphins somehow manage to win some playoff games, that's a good position to be in and time then to talk about new contracts.

There’s just no getting around paying a franchise QB. Even if you get lucky and hit on a QB that you can win a SB with on their rookie contract you’re still going to have to pay for him. Unless you think those QB’s should just be traded away before they get another contract? And chance is not on your side if you’re expecting to hit on a rookie QB and win a SB with them getting paid so little. I think Russell Wilson was the last and only QB in the past 15 or so years to do it. Burrows got to one, of course, but even if you count him that doesn’t move the needle much. It’s like trying to catch rain in a colander. Add to the fact that Burrows is now the NFL’s highest paid player by AAV and he can’t even stay on the field and we see just how hard it is.

The statistics show that a QB’s pay needs to be no more than about 13% of the cap for any given team. That’s the sweet spot where you still have money to pay other players. That means a QB’s cap hit should be about a $30m cap hit. If Tua is extended, and gets the money most think he’d get, the contract could easily give the Dolphins an out in 2 years or so if he regresses and also keep his cap hit relatively low.
Extending Tua is the right move at this point. He’s proven to be a top QB (even though some disagree because they wrongly use wins as a bar for individual players) and should be paid like one. The cap, and thus salaries, will only increase and unless we want to find ourselves competing with other teams to keep him, think Wilkins, he will get a new contract.

"Aquapride wrote:

Are you referring to Flores supposed preference to draft Herbert instead of Tua?
Without having seen Herbert play for the Dolphins it's impossible to know whether Miami would have had more success the past 4 seasons with Herbert. We do know that the Chargers team performance has been bad and for that reason I think the Chargers made a mistake signing Herbert to a long term multi hundred million dollar contract.
A year ago the Dolphins were smart to not extend Tua . If (for whatever the reason) Grier likes Tua the smart move at this time is for him to play the 2024 season on the 5th year option of his rookie contract. This will give Grier the flexibility a year from now to either franchise-tag Tua for the 2025 season, sign him to a longer term contract, or cut him.

Would Flores still be here if the Dolphins had drafted Herbert?

"Aquapride wrote:

I believe Tua's rookie contract 5th year option salary is $23 million for the 2024 season and I am ok with the Dolphins doing that.
I don't know what you mean by "pay him around $10/million a year for the next few years".
If Tua plays on the 5th year option then a year from now the Dolphins can franchise tag him for the 2025 season, or sign him to a new long term contract, or cut him. If a year from now the team signs him to a long term contract I believe the dollar amount should be determined by the Dolphins team performance of the 2024 season.

They are going to hate you around here for using logic :)

"dolphin25 wrote:

They are going to hate you around here for using logic :)

Except the logic is to get rid of a pro-bowl QB for the chance of finding a pro-bowl QB as a rookie. Which seems to be easy according to many on this board since every team tries to do that every year and maybe 1 or 2 get lucky and it works out for them. Or get Kirk Cousins, a 35 year old QB who's won 4 playoff games in 12 years. Yes sound logic indeed.

"Finatik wrote:

Except the logic is to get rid of a pro-bowl QB for the chance of finding a pro-bowl QB as a rookie. Which seems to be easy according to many on this board since every team tries to do that every year and maybe 1 or 2 get lucky and it works out for them. Or get Kirk Cousins, a 35 year old QB who's won 4 playoff games in 12 years. Yes sound logic indeed.

The same guy said that the Pats were set for the next 10 yrs with Mac Jones and Tua should be traded for Justin Fields (who is about to be released in Chicago because no one else even wants him and is willing to give up anything).

“Logic”

lol

"danmarino wrote:

The same guy said that the Pats were set for the next 10 yrs with Mac Jones and Tua should be traded for Justin Fields (who is about to be released in Chicago because no one else even wants him and is willing to give up anything).

“Logic”

lol

Well can't imagine he would get released but yeah there is no real demand. I think some people just saw him put up some good fantasy football numbers and assumed he was good.

He would need to take a massive leap as a passer going into year 4. The idea he could or should compete with Tua is comical.

"dolphin25 wrote:

Would Flores still be here if the Dolphins had drafted Herbert?

Good question!

"Aquapride wrote:

I believe Tua's rookie contract 5th year option salary is $23 million for the 2024 season and I am ok with the Dolphins doing that.
I don't know what you mean by "pay him around $10/million a year for the next few years".
If Tua plays on the 5th year option then a year from now the Dolphins can franchise tag him for the 2025 season, or sign him to a new long term contract, or cut him. If a year from now the team signs him to a long term contract I believe the dollar amount should be determined by the Dolphins team performance of the 2024 season.

Franchise tagging a quarterback is VERY risky. A player is is franchise tagged is paid the average of the top 5 paid players in that position for the year. You do realize there are some STUPIDLY high salaries on some of these quarterbacks, don’t you?

By extending Tua NOW, the salary cap hit is greatly reduced as a hefty portion of that first year will likely be a signing bonus, which doesn’t affect the cap…and there are always caveats in those contracts with outs for the team.

Draft a guard/tackle and future Armstead replacement.

Take a wide receiver.

Or, trade down.

"dolphin25 wrote:

Would Flores still be here if the Dolphins had drafted Herbert?

Doubt it as he couldn't find a competent offensive coordinator to work with him. If Herbert was drafted and had to work with the same offence that Fizpatrick/Tua had to work with the guys who want rid of Tua would have been wanting rid of Herbert after a couple of years as well.

You have to remember that Herbert walked into an offence with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekler on it, not DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Myles Gaskin.

"Fireland wrote:

Well can't imagine he would get released but yeah there is no real demand. I think some people just saw him put up some good fantasy football numbers and assumed he was good.

He would need to take a massive leap as a passer going into year 4. The idea he could or should compete with Tua is comical.

It blows my mind that anyone would actively want to trade for Fields and have him start just because he can run around a bit. As a passer he's pretty bad, ratings of 73.2, 85.2 and 86.3 with 40 TD's and 30 ints over 3 seasons.

He's also been sacked 135 times (12.4% rate) and his line last year was actually 2nd in pass block win rate while he had a 10.6% sack rate. The only other starters in double figure percentage for sack rate were Tannehill, Bryce Young, Zach Wilson, Bailey Zappe and both Giants QB's. Even Sam Howell managed a 9.6% while throwing a shedload more passes. Meanwhile the top passing QB's had a sack rate in the 4-6% range.

He's just not a good QB and it's extremely unlikely he ever will be.

If we're trading for a Quarterback, Fields would not be my first choice. I'll get killed for saying this, but Sam Howell would be my pick as far as realistic options available.

"ExplosionsInDaSky wrote:

If we're trading for a Quarterback, Fields would not be my first choice. I'll get killed for saying this, but Sam Howell would be my pick as far as realistic options available.

Howell is in Seattle now.

Free Agency has cleared up our draft priorities.

Safety, Cornerback, inside Linebacker and tight end have all been improved from last year. Running back and QB are exact same and running it back.

We are clearly worse and leaking oil at 1)Offensive Line, 2) Defensive line and 3) edge rushers (mostly due to injury at edge…)

Those are the 3 needs we are primed to address through the draft.

"Pennington's Limp Arm wrote:

Free Agency has cleared up our draft priorities.

Safety, Cornerback, inside Linebacker and tight end have all been improved from last year. Running back and QB are exact same and running it back.

We are clearly worse and leaking oil at 1)Offensive Line, 2) Defensive line and 3) edge rushers (mostly due to injury at edge…)

Those are the 3 needs we are primed to address through the draft.

Don't have to address it in the draft but they don't have a WR3 so its an option