Are we making zero distinction between the sports books which set the early lines, and the bettors which dictate where the lines move during the week? Because if that's the case then we don't really know what "Vegas" is saying about this game until game day next week.
I don't get how lines determine whether a team is in trouble or not... Philadelphia were 3 point favorites yesterday and beat Chicago by a hundred...
Dats cuz we are goin to the playoffs ....and honestly..it will be great to get someone the team playoff experience. Just get in..see what happens. Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
I hear Football Outsiders has us at 59%. That sounds about right. As I kept saying, I believe Miami's odds of making the playoffs are about at a coin flip. If the FO numbers are correct then there's some arbitrage to be had with the Vegas spreads.
But which bettors? There were more people betting on Miami. 65% of the bets placed were on Miami. It was the large bettors or the books taking a position that moved the line.
-6.5 is a lot bigger than -3 gambling-wise, and the line closed at -1 against the Bills, which is basically nothing.
a little more than a coin flip....but not where they were which was a MONSTER favorite (they were at 70.7% on Sunday at 12:59)
It isn't necessarily uncommon for a book to take a position if they're confident enough. But its important to note that 65% of bets were on Miami for yesterday's game. But for this weeks game, there is no chance that Miami moves from -7 (which it opened at), to -1. I think the lowest you see it move is -4.5, which would still be pretty encouraging for Miami.
POST makes no sense 60-65% of betters bet for favorites and for a line to move 2 full points in the underdogs directions overnight is an anomaly betting. But obviously someone knew something!!!!
Feck the playoffs. We got bigger problems. We have Wallace and Hartline at WR, Lamar Miller at RB, Tannehill at QB. Where are the beasts? Phins need to improve so that on Sundays when you look at the team, you see beasts all over. That is the main problem that needs to be addressed. Records are meaningless at this point.
2 full point over night is an anomolly, the national champioship for ncaa is posted almost a month and a half before its played and it barely moves a point a pt and a half in either direction in a month and a half, so 2 full points overnight is an anomaly specially for a team in last place in the east. But someone knew something lol
It doesn't matter. It's the money that moves the line. The money was going toward Miami and the books had to adjust. You need to make a distinction otherwise you're comparing apples and oranges. You can't label the Miami-Buffalo PICK as "Vegas" and then sit here and try and pretend that the flash spread of Miami -6.5 over New York is also "Vegas".
The money does not always move the line. It is a lot more complicated than that. The game closed at -1, which is pretty much a pick em. There is no way the Jets game gets under 4, unless Tannehill doesn't play.
Well guess we know who's gonna be all prissy when we make the playoffs now..won't we Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
The two teams I root for, are in elimination games this week (Packers and Dolphins)... Hoping Aaron Rodgers comes back finally..
I think miami after putting up a goose egg should just be a -3.5 pt fav i seriously doubt it moves to 7 or 7.5 after the showing against the bills. but i agree -4.5 is about as low it will go from -6.5 because i doubt the bettors will take Miami at a touchdown fav
100% vegas moves the lines all the time for injuries, for weather etc.....if tannehills doesn't play your be surprised that the line wont move as much as you think, specially after last weeks showing.
The weather was known a week in advance and the injuries played out in predictable fashion. There were no surprising developments.
I think it's disingenuous to sit here and say that "Vegas" told us what would happen in this Bills game. The reality is this. The sports books put out a line of Miami being favored by 3 points. I thought it opened at 3.5 actually. But anyway. That's what the sports books told us would happen, after the Thad Lewis news was digested...Miami winning the game. There were no weather or injury developments. In fact the only injury development went thoroughly against the Bills with E.J. Manuel being announced out of the game. The bettors placed enough money on the Dolphins to where the line became a Pick. So at that point "Vegas" told us that they didn't know who would win the game. To go from that to saying that "Vegas" knew the Bills would whoop Miami's *** is disingenuous.
60-65% bettors placed money on the dolphins the line would not go down from -3 fav of miami to -1 it would go up -3.5-4.5 that stat is false it would only go down to -1 if 60=65% placed on the bills, they adjusted the line themselves money had nothing to do with it. something else lowered the line to 1 maybe they knew something i/we/us didnt know. LOL
I'm not saying Vegas knew the Bills would whoop Miami, but they definitely thought the game was a toss-up. The problem is that the sports books make the rules to their advantage. They literally control the market. They can accept and reject almost any bet they want. Lines are moved not get even money on both sides, but to maximize profit for the sportsbook. I'd be willing to bet that the majority of Vegas' exposure to Miami was at -2.5, while the majority of their exposure to Buffalo was at +1.
Well no surprising developments we know of hahah i was just agreeing that vegas themselves moves lines all the time for a variety of reasons.
Vegas never knows anything unless they are in league with the NFL. All they have is an educated guess, and they are more about finding a line that makes them profit than an actual prediction.
This is a little off-base. 60-65% of bettors bet on Miami. That doesn't mean that 60-65% of the money was on Miami. You can have ten people bet $100 on Miami, and one person bet $5000 on Buffalo. 90% of the bets are on Miami, but the line is going to move against those people.
100% agreed i garuntee everyone bought a half a point when they line opened at -3 then when the line went down everyone had to suspect something and the action on the bills was easily taken at +1
Sports betting is an industry that generates hundreds of millions of dollars. Sports books have a ton of money to develop predictive models. They shouldn't be viewed any differently than the top hedge funds. Their predictions are what enable them to maximize profit.
What most likely happened: - Sports books thought the line should be -1 - Sports books thought that the public would be all over Miami - Sports books decided to open at -2.5, take the Miami action, and block whatever action they could on Buffalo - Sports books move the line to -1, then let Buffalo bettors get their action in
seeing as how everyone bets on favorites except handicappers, and in all honesty that wasn't a handicappers game i seriously doubt the money was huge on the game? handicappers like prime time big money games, like sd/den az Seattle etc not much time was spent on the bills dolphins knowing the weather and the lack of interest from the public except die hard fans, just like jets browns game didnt have alot of money either. but for it to move maybe there was someone who came up on the game
Except that getting knocked around, sacked at an historic rate and constantly throwing under terrible pressure could create bad habits (see Joey Harrington, David Carr) that could hurt his development or haunt him later.
I am not talking smack, but I was very uneasy about the Bills. The fact that they were the best pass rushing team in league at home with nothing to lose, going agaist us, after an emotional game with the worst pass protection in the league smelled like a disaster. My only hope was our defense would shut them down. Turns out we can't stop the run, which does make me a little nervous about the Jets...not a lot, but a little...thus no smack talk.
yes very true, but usually that moves like fri or sat to 1 to get alot of action that line didnt change until Sunday morning which is why im still trying to figure it out unless they just slow played it very well like pocket aces
are you serious i garuntee vegas knows injuries and other issues before the general public does, its crazy to think they don't have people on the insides.
I cant help but look at the title of this thread and think... [video=youtube;jofNR_WkoCE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofNR_WkoCE[/video]
That was my biggest take-away from the game...just like in the Tampa Bay game, the other team wanted it WAY more than we did...and it showed in spades.
