60 to 65% of individual bettors, or 60 to 65% of the total coin? If the latter, I get what you're saying. If the former, I think it's irrelevant.
Correct. And those models did not correctly predict the Bills-Dolphins outcome. And I think those models, the way they are built, are particularly weak in special situations such as preseason, very early regular season, and week 17.
60-65% bettors but i would say avg figure for the coin would be roughly 50-55% still more for miami than coin for buffalo
This has nothing to do with what I said. Any single injury doesn't determine a game unless you are talking about a star QB. Vegas is about making money with their line not predicting a winner.
I feel like Im reading a massive thread started by Shouright......with all these percentages and lines....oi....
To an extent. However they still want a line that will profit them. I'm sure they do research but it still boils down to cash and not the most accurate line in terms of predicting victory. If Vegas
It doesn't work that way. Money on Miami would move the line the other way. Not more favorable for MORE Miami Bettors. The Book is always trying to get a balance that is within 5% of the total handle to not get exposed. Their actions on this game suggested that they KNEW that Miami was taking sucker money.
This doesn't make sense. I was saying that Vegas put out a line of Miami -3. That line traveled all the way to PICK because of the amount of money being put on Buffalo. Not the amount of money being put on Miami. Even though 60 to 65% of individual bettors were betting the favorite (as usual), the money flow was going toward Buffalo so the sports books kept lowering the line toward a PICK in order to balance out the books and make Miami a more attractive bet. To say that the sports books predicted what would happen is disingenuous.
My gut tells me: 1. I really dont know as much about football as I thought I did a. I liked the Clabo signing b. I thought J Martin was going to be OK to good at LT c. I thought Richie was a good LG 2. I hated the re-signing of Hartline. I really thought we over paid for him. In retrospect, I think he has had a very good season. He has had a couple bad games but over all I have been impressed with him 3. Did not like the Gibson signing. I thought he was just another slow receiver that was going to have a hard time getting open. I think people have forgotten this move since he was injured but I think this was one of Irelands best pick ups 4. Loved the Wallace move… OK, so I was right about that one… really people I dont give a rats *** what some of you think about Wallace… but if you really think Wallace is a "slight" improvement to Bess and Company you are ****ing dumb or you have an agenda. 5. I thought Miller would be just fine as our starting RB. I still think the kid can be a very good NFL RB given the right circumstances… His pass blocking is just atrocious. 6. I thought the replacement of Bennett and Dansby was a good move. I am still on the fence about that because I think the Fins were trying to build a team that could play with the Pats. They wanted a pass defense type of defense and I think they have improved in that area… I just dont know if what we have given up stopping the run balances that out. 7. I was sold on Philbin and Company at the start of the season… right now? not so much. I really dont understand this coaching staff at all. 8. I thought Tannehill would struggle this year and would hold the offense back… WHile he has had… does have some issues that NEED to be addressed he has progressed nicely. Think we are seeing the start of a bright NFL career. Overall, I think the Dolphins are headed in the right direction… but what do I know..
damn, was that fluke a downer though, normally was my day off today, i just went to work at 7 in the morning and just finished a 13 hour shift to just not have to think of this disaster...this loss is really hard to take, how it happened was even worse...19:0...with the playoffs on the line, 7 sacks allowed...unreal...i´m so down on these guys....no one showed up...maybe brandon fields, but he is the freaking punter
Yeh it sucked...but..what ya gonna do? Get ready to beat the piss out of the Jets...best way I can think of washing that nasty Buffalo beat down out of our mouths...
Here are things I worry about. Next off season the Dolphins will once again have lots of cap room. Not the same amount they had in 2013, mind you...but they'll have a good amount. But like the 2013 off season, they will also have a lot of liabilities. Brent Grimes will be 31 years old next year and he's a free agent to be. What price tag will Miami have to pay to keep him? It's going to be expensive, and will impact your flexibility on what else you can do in the off season. Randy Starks and Paul Soliai will both be free agents. One or both of those guys are leaving. I'm about 90% certain Starks will leave. I think Soliai and his agent are frustrated and currently intend to leave but could be swayed. One or both of these guys leaving severely impacts a position of STRENGTH on the team. This is more true of Starks than of Soliai. Losing him would be a big blow to the strength of the team. Chris Clemons is also a free agent, for what it's worth. So for the Dolphins to even be as good in 2014 as they were in 2013 you have to address the above expiring contracts and probably just resolve to accepting that your defensive tackle position is going to take a big blow to it. Once you're done there, how many resources are left to try and improve the team? Because right now you need FOUR starting offensive linemen. That's going to be hard to manage. You also need a second tight end and a second tailback. And in the mean time you're probably just going to have to accept the problem that is festering at linebacker. All in all, you expect Ryan Tannehill to continue to develop and any positive developments on his part will translate on the field. However, there's a pretty decent chance the team around him actually gets worse because of the expiring contracts and further amount of turnover necessary (and as we've seen, when you roll the dice, you can come up snake eyes). That is why I have trouble with the idea that Miami is a team that is heading "in the right direction". To me they look like they're still just spinning their wheels. They need to catch a break from perhaps an unexpected development in order to get some upside. Maybe one of the rookie corners comes out of nowhere and plays lights out next year. Or maybe Reshad Jones starts playing like it's 2012 again. Or maybe Phil Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe show more comfort with the system and play a lot better. You need something like that to happen to get the upside.
There is some other stuff they can do to create cap room. Restructuring Wallace's contract is first and foremost. They could cut Patterson and save $5 million (though I would resign him at a reduced rate); they could cut Gibson depending on how his injury is progressing, etc. But overall, you're right. Bigest issue on the o-line is whether we can expect any improvement from guys already on the roster. Can Brenner be a serviceable guard? Will Dallas Thomas show anything? Is Watkins just an incredible bust? And none of this is even including any possible mess that Pouncey might find himself in, either due to Hernandez or Bullygate.
Sam Brenner was AWFUL yesterday. I believe they took him out of the game for performance reasons. For some reason he's really been severely overrated by the crowd as far as how he's been playing. Hell I think 90% of the time people have outright confused him with Nate Garner who has been much better though still not good. I agree there's money to be had with Dimitri Patterson, cutting him. But keep in mind that in the games he did play this year, he was severely impactful. He was a huge part of both the Cincinnati and Cleveland victories. So losing him or him not playing as well is something that moves the needle as far as making the team a little worse, even if it does give you a few more resources. Overall you've got maybe like $30 million plus a normal supply of draft picks (late teens, early twenties) to address CB1, CB2, FS1, DT2, DT3, LT1, RT1, LG1, RG1, RB2 and TE2.
All good points, but not a lot if context. Every team deals with expiring contracts, aging players, holes to fill etc. The question is how do our issues compare with those of other teams and how well equipped are we to deal with them?
If they restructure Wallace, they kick the can down the road on him. Might as well leave his contract as it, so the team can dump him after the 2014 season.
I don't think that's as important to be honest. Do you think the ENTIRE LEAGUE is dealing with such issues to such a large degree that the entire platform falls while we stay the same? I think that unlikely. I think some rise, some fall, and it balances...so the question of how well Miami's new team in 2014 stacks up against the 2013 is very much the central issue, with some extra consideration to the 12 teams that will populate the schedule.
Why cant we franchise either Soliai or Starks? I can also see them franchising Grimes, which may be their best bet. Yes our LBs are an issue, but I dont see them as keeping us from competing in the playoffs. I can see us signing Keller again at TE...to a one year deal. He and Clay would be a great TE tandem. Another thing you might see Miami do is go back to a 3/4 next season, thereby reducing the need to sign Starks and Soliai. I think there is upside to AJ Francis as well. The next season could be hell trying to figure out though...with Tannehill and others coming due..... When you they start negotiating with Tannehill in your opinion?
I agree that Brenner was awful yesterday. The question is whether he can be a cheap, serviceable guy on the line. I also agree on Patterson. When he played he was great, and I want to keep him, but that number needs to come down given his injury situation. A big part of the reason this off season is so confounding (and why Ireland needs to go) is that many of these would be easy decisions if we knew anything about the guys drafted to supposedly play these positions. If we had any idea whether or not Taylor and Davis could play, maybe it makes it easier to let Patterson and Carroll go. Same thing with Dallas Thomas. If we knew he could play, we could cross one spot off the list. Such is life under an Ireland regime
You assume they want to get rid of him. I don't think they do, nor would I. He's been much better recently and was the only guy on offense who did anything yesterday.
They can absolutely franchise one of those guys. However: 1. They can only franchise one. They can't franchise all three. 2. It's very costly to do that and it would severely impact the amount of coin they have to operate with in filling the other holes.
The thing I want to see with Ryan Tannehill is for him to get out from under Mike Sherman's system. That's when I think we'll have a better idea of whether he can or can't play. I think sometimes you know on a guy regardless of position. For example I was a big proponent of just selling out on Chad Henne before even bothering to see him in Brian Daboll's new system. I just thought it was clear he wasn't the guy, to that point. But Tannehill isn't Henne. Tannehill's got a much better passer rating as well as better proprietary independent ratings (e.g. FO, PFF, QBR) than Henne did. Mike Sherman's system may be what he used in college but it's also the system that got him moved to wide receiver at the beginning of his college career, and made him known as a bit of an underachiever as he was coming out. Let's find out what he can do in a different system.
I am pretty sure from a conversation I heard on NFL XM that per the new CBA, these rookie contracts do not have out clauses, even if a franchise would love to extend them, etc. So guys like Tannehill and R. Wilson play out the full rookie deal, as is, per the cba with no way to sign to new deal till it expires, etc. 2016 for Tannehill.
I think the all 32 convo is better left for the offseason but a quick look at the AFCE tells me we won't be losing much if any ground. Brady will be 37, Talib is a FA, Gronk, Wilfork and Vollmer will be coming off of major injuries. The Jets will still be in bad shape, especially at QB. Buffalo is a team that could make a move but they have QB issues as well. Do you see any AFC teams making a big jump next year? Houston comes to mind mainly bc they're not nearly as bad as they looked this year, anyone else?
I just looked it up. We will need to exercise the 5th year option (which would pay Tanny the average of Top 10 QBs since he was picked in top 10) by the end of next year. So, you're right, he can't be extended until after the 5th year. If we don;t pick up the option he's unrestricted after year 4. This system absolutely screws Russ Wilson
Why would they not want to get rid of him? His route running is so poor that he will never be productive in this offensive system, and he makes probably the worst effort to catch passes that are outside his frame as any receiver I've ever seen. Really, I'm not sure why you would guarantee even more money to him and make his contract even worse than it already is.
How many "other teams" go into the offseason needing 4 starting offensive lineman, at least one ()maybe two) starting caliber defensive tackles, 2 starting linebackers, a strong safety, 2 corners and at least one running back? And of those teams, how many of those have retained the General Manager who created the ****ty mess? None. The franchise is a disaster. We are no closer to winning now than we were in 2009. He's had 5 ****ing years and we are no better than we were than. We are better at some positions (QB, defensive line, receiver) but have made no progress at all at multiple positions.
He was our only hope in that game vs. Buffalo. I saw his value clearer. If only one of the two passes where thrown better.
Then perhaps the system is the problem. We're 24th in the league in scoring, 28th in yards. Last year we were 27th in scoring (I understand we had a rookie QB, but our running game and o-line were better) In 31 games under Philbin and this system we have scored more than 24 points FOUR times! To give you an example of how inept that is, this season 11 teams AVERAGE more than 24 ppg. Last year 12 teams did it. What is so great about this system that we're clinging to it so desparately?
Not reasonable to expect coaches to change systems they've been running for almost their entire careers. I'm not a big fan of the systems either, but that is something you have to consider when you hire these guys.
1.) Talent, or lack of it. 2.) Playcalling. The system is great, it works all over the league. We have a horrible offensive line, below average running backs and a play caller who has yet to discover the screen pass, draw play, run game commitment or the middle of the field. I think even IF we had a good line and a decent runner we'd be screwed long term because Mike Sherman is a dreadful play caller. If he returns next year it will be more of the same, he needs to be fired.
