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When Henne Lays The Biggest Eggs

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by AdamC13, Dec 17, 2010.

  1. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Let me start by saying this is not intended to be a Chad Henne bash thread on my part. Honestly, I am still on the fence when it comes to Henne. Believe me, I really want to like Henne. Although it was apparent to me last year Henne would never be Marino 2, I was excited in the off season to see how much he would improve. But, on the field I have not seen it. Whether it is because Henne just isn’t NFL starting caliber, needs more time to mature and/or has been over-coached to the point of fear-based, mistake-prone football I don’t know.

    What has been clear to me in watching Henne play this year is when Miami has been ahead is when Henne has played his worst. The following stats are passing splits (completions, attempts, completion%, yards per attempt, TD passes, interceptions, times sacked, QB rating, sacked%) of Henne when Miami is Ahead, Behind, and Tied . Included are the same splits for the top 12 rated QBs (did not include Phillip Rivers against SF on 12-16) and everyone’s favorite Mark Sanchez with analysis below.

    Chad
    Henne
    Ahead 49 cmp 95 att 51.6 cmp% 5.4 ypa 2 TD 4 INT 13 SACK 57 rating 13.68 sack%
    Behind 146 cmp 220 att 66.4 cmp% 7.61 ypa 8 TD 7 INT 8 SACK 88 rating 3.64 sack%
    Tied 38 cmp 70 att 54.3 cmp% 6.97 ypa 3 TD 4 INT 1 SACK 66.8 rating 1.43 sack%

    Tom Brady

    Ahead 150 cmp 218 att 68.8 cmp% 7.91 ypa 14 TD 1 INT 12 111.9 rating 5.5 sack%
    Behind 83 cmp 125 att 66.4 cmp% 8.34 ypa 8 TD 2 INT 6 SACK 106.8 rating 4.8 sack%
    Tied 51 cmp 82 att 62.2 cmp% 7.7 ypa 7 TD 1 INT 3 SACK 109.3 rating 3.66 sack%

    Michael Vick
    Ahead 83 cmp 139 att 59.7 cmp% 7.84 ypa 6 TD 3 INT 13 SACK 89.9 rating 9.35 sack%
    Behind 72 cmp 109 att 66.1 cmp% 7.47 ypa 4 TD 1 INT 9 SACK 96.7 rating 8.26 sack%
    Tied 32 cmp 46 att 69.6 cmp% 13.26 ypa 7 TD 0 INT 3 SACK 151.7 rating 6.52 sack%

    Phillip Rivers
    Ahead 84 cmp 116 att 72.4 cmp% 9.89 ypa 10 TD 4 INT 8 SACK 118 rating 6.9 sack%
    Behind 176 cmp 276 att 63.8 cmp% 8.52 ypa 13 TD 7 INT 20 SACK 95.9 rating 7.25 sack%
    Tied 30 cmp 47 att 63.8 cmp% 7.85 ypa 3 TD 0 INT 3 SACK 109.3 rating 6.38 sack%

    Aaron Rodgers
    Ahead 139 cmp 212 att 65.6 cmp% 7.79 ypa 11 TD 4 INT 11 SACK 98.6 rating 5.19 sack%
    Behind 60 cmp 93 att 64.5 cmp% 9.02 ypa 4 TD 2 INT 8 SACK 98.8 rating 8.6 sack%
    Tied 69 cmp 105 att 65.7 cmp% 7.61 ypa 8 TD 4 INT 8 SACK 98.1 rating 7.62 sack%

    Matt Cassel
    Ahead 88 cmp 150 att 58.7 cmp% 7.1 ypa 9 TD 1 INT 7 SACK 97.8 rating 4.67 sack%
    Behind 73 cmp 121 att 60.3 cmp% 7.72 ypa 6 TD 2 INT 6 SACK 94.2 rating 4.96 sack%
    Tied 51 cmp 83 att 61.4 cmp% 6.07 ypa 8 TD 1 INT 4 SACK 105.7 rating 4.82 sack%

    Tony Romo
    Ahead 16 cmp 23 att 69.6 cmp% 9.17 ypa 2 TD 1 INT 0 SACK 109.1 rating 0 sack%
    Behind 102 cmp 149 att 68.5 cmp% 7.8 ypa 6 TD 2 INT 6 SACK 99.5 rating 4.03 sack%
    Tied 30 cmp 41 att 73.2 cmp% 5.66 ypa 3 TD 4 INT 1 SACK 71.4 rating 2.44 sack%

    Ben Roethlisberger
    Ahead 74 cmp 122 att 60.7 cmp% 8.66 ypa 7 TD 1 INT 10 SACK 104.4 rating 8.2 sack%
    Behind 84 cmp 128 att 65.6 cmp% 8.26 ypa 6 TD 3 INT 10 SACK 97 rating 7.81 sack%
    Tied 22 cmp 41 att 53.7 cmp% 5.44 ypa 0 TD 1 INT 6 SACK 59.3 rating 14.63 sack%

    Joe Flacco
    Ahead 110 cmp 179 att 61.5 7.06 ypa 4 TD 3 INT 11 SACK 83.2 rating 6.15 sack%
    Behind 81 cmp 132 att 61.4 cmp% 7.22 ypa 11 TD 5 INT 7 SACK 95.3 rating 5.3 sack%
    Tied 57 cmp 87 att 65.5 cmp% 8.86 ypa 4 TD 0 INT 9 SACK 108.9 rating 10.34 sack%

    Drew Brees
    Ahead 179 cmp 269 att 66.5 cmp% 6.97 ypa 14 TD 9 INT 8 SACK 90 rating 2.97 sack%
    Behind 98 cmp 145 att 67.6 cmp% 6.77 ypa 8 TD 7 INT 6 SACK 84.9 rating 4.14 sack%
    Tied 85 cmp 111 att 76.6 cmp% 8.99 ypa 6 TD 2 INT 4 SACK 113.9 rating 3.6 sack%

    David Garrard
    Ahead 48 cmp 72 att 66.7 cmp% 7.1 ypa 3 TD 1 INT 7 SACK 95.3 rating 9.72 sack%
    Behind 79 cmp 138 att 57.2 cmp% 6.47 ypa 8 TD 11 INT 17 SACK 62.9 rating 12.32 sack%
    Tied 63 cmp 80 att 78.8 cmp% 9.21 ypa 9 TD 0 INT 4 SACK 142.6 rating 5.0 sack%

    Peyton Manning
    Ahead 128 cmp 206 att 62.1 cmp% 6.84 ypa 9 TD 2 INT 7 SACK 92.9 rating 3.4 sack%
    Behind 179 cmp 256 att 69.9 cmp% 7.4 ypa 13 TD 10 INT 7 SACK 91.8 rating 2.73 sack%
    Tied 71 cmp 107 att 66.4 cmp% 6.79 ypa 4 TD 3 INT 0 SACK 86.5 rating 0 sack%

    Matt Ryan
    Ahead 112 cmp 174 att 64.4 cmp% 6.23 ypa 5 TD 3 INT 6 SACK 84.1 rating 3.45 sack%
    Behind 113 cmp 179 att 63.1 cmp% 7.34 ypa 11 TD 4 INT 7 SACK 96.4 rating 3.91 sack%
    Tied 75 cmp 122 att 61.5 cmp% 6.15 ypa 6 TD 1 INT 7 SACK 91.9 rating 5.74 sack%

    Mark Sanchez
    Ahead 73 cmp 142 att 51.4 cmp% 5.32 ypa 6 TD 1 INT 8 SACK 78.2 rating 5.63 sack%
    Behind 119 cmp 221 att 53.8 cmp% 7.22 ypa 7 TD 7 INT 14 SACK 74.4 rating 6.33 sack%
    Tied 43 cmp 78 att 55.1 cmp% 6.42 ypa 3 TD 4 INT 4 SACK 66.2 rating 5.13 sack%

    Analysis: Presumably, the most opportune time for a QB to pass is when the team is in the lead as teams try and run out the clock with the running game the opposing defense has to honor the run first. Of course, on the flip-side when a team is in the lead then the QB is more likely to throw the ball away to avoid taking a negative play decreasing comp% and is not as likely to take chances down the field and risk an interception so ypa should decrease as well affecting the QB rating. Overall, QB rating stats should be somewhat consistent given the different contexts balance themselves out.

    However, in Chad Henne's case his QB rating drops significantly to an abysmal 57 when Miami has the lead. This reflects why Miami has not been able to put teams away. The other statistic that jumps out is Henne's sacked % jumps to a whopping 13.68% (Jesus Chad, get rid of the ball!).

    Now, I do not proclaim to "know" what is occurring in Henne's mind and body since that is a subjective experience. However, I can make a best guess and that would be Henne plays fear-based, mistake-prone football with the lead. In other words, Henne becomes afraid to lose and to make a mistake. The initial fear response for most people is to "freeze" in order to assess the situation before taking action. Of course, this is disastrous for a QB when holding the ball a split-second longer can result in an interception or sack. Robo QB may not be such a robot after all. Is this because that is Henne's makeup? If so, can he overcome it? Or is it because the coaching of Henning and Sparano have coached him this way to the point of being reluctant to get rid of the ball?

    I do recall early in the season both Henning and Sparano saying they wanted Henne to take chances, but don't make mistakes. Seems contradictory to me and the kind of advice that would **** with a young QB's mind, but it is what it is right now.

    The question becomes can Henne be salvaged with better coaching and perhaps a sports psychologist? I do believe it is time to make a change at OC at the end of the season, but do we also need a change at QB? Again...
     
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  2. Disciple

    Disciple Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Very interesting and thanks for taking the time to look this up. There is definitely something going on as the drop in his performance is alarming compared to everyone else.

    Poor Sanchez :lol:
     
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  3. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Yep...if teams didn't completely sell out to stop the run against the Jets then Sanchez = Ryan Leaf.
     
  4. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    Stat Monkey overload!

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Frayser

    Frayser Barstool Philosopher

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    I'm tempted to lean more towards Henning fundamentally altering his game plan the moment we get a lead, at us becoming even more predictable, and, because of a struggling running game many times during the year, not very threatening to many of the good defenses we've faced all season.

    But maybe that's just me.
     
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  6. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    :lol: hmmm...perhaps I should have simplified it to Henne plays like Sanchez when we are in the lead.
     
  7. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    We can't put teams away because we can't pass? How does that make sense to you? Ask Warren Moon and the Houston Oilers how that works.
     
  8. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Correct...Warren Moon as I recall didn't have a defense supporting him as good as the Dolphins.

    It makes sense to me because in 112 pass attempts (attempts plus sacks) there have been 17 negative plays (sacks or interceptions) or 15.74% of the time. Additionally, there have been another 46 passes attempts that have resulted in "0" yardage. So 54.6% of the time a pass play results in "0" or negative yardage. Those would be called drive killers!
     
  9. miamiron

    miamiron There's always next year

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    I think when the Dolphins get the lead Henning/Sparano shut down Henne

    The game calling seems to be ultra conservative
    and the offense becomes one of "playing not to lose"
    rather than playing to put teams away.

    I'm not putting all the blame on the coaches but it must be difficult playing in an offensive system that borders on bi-polar

    Aggressive to get a lead then ultra conservative
    trying to maintain the lead...then once the lead is given up...back to aggressive
     
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  10. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    One theory:

    the coaching staff calls plays differently when we have a lead, and it's not helping put Henne in a position to play well.

    That said, Henne has been worrying in aspects of his performance this year. That may be a huge understatement, in fact.

    So, let's not forget that games are coached/called differently when leading or behind.
     
  11. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Good points. I am just not sure I would ever refer to Henning's play calling as aggressive. Perhaps "chunk feet" to try and get the lead then "chunk inches" to try and maintain the lead and back to "chunk feet" if fallen behind.
     
  12. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with conservative play-calling. But the percentage of sacks to me indicate that Henne is holding the ball too long and so he does have a part in it.
     
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  13. Frayser

    Frayser Barstool Philosopher

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    There is nothing in the data to indicate that Henne is holding the ball too long any more than there is evidence in the data that these are coverage sacks based on the same run-run-pass formula run over and over again whenever we gain a lead. While I find the data interesting, I just don't see how it suggests anything one way or the other.
     
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  14. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Of course I am making an inference here which is what one has to do with stats. However, when Henne has been sacked a whopping 13 times on 95 attempts when Miami is ahead as compared to being only sacked 8 times on 290 attempts when Miami is tied or behind it indicates something is going on. We are talking about a difference of being sacked 13.68% of the time vs. 2.75%.

    Couple that with Henne only completing 51.6% of his passes when Miami has the lead while completing 63.44% of his passes when tied or behind there has to be some explanation other than chance or coincidence.
     
  15. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    The Defense gave up 3 points in the first half of the greatest comeback in NFL History. Then, the offense couldn't eat up clock at all. They couldn't stay on the field. The Oilers had a playoff Defense. Again, teams don't throw the ball to put away teams. They run the ball because all runs keep the clock moving but an incomplete pass stops the clock. If a QB has to come out and throw when leading, it's usually something safe and predictable, which can be capitalized upon by a defense. With a running game as bad as ours, there is no wonder why he throws so much and does so poorly when ahead. The fact that he helped get us ahead shouldn't be lost either.
     
  16. Shamboubou

    Shamboubou Well-Known Member

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    My thoughts exactly!!!! What main thing I see there is attempts with the lead. Henne has a whopping 95 attemps with the lead. Meanwhile, Brady 218, Vick 139, Rodgers 212, Brees 269.

    I have always felt like Henne is a rythem passer. He needs to get into a rythem and then he sees the field better, gets better touch and accuracy on passes. He needs those attempts to succeed. I can not stand when we go safe on our playcalling. We have a 7 point lead and we call plays like we are up 20.
     
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  17. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Did you actually run a test to see if it's statistically significant though. All this is showing is a bunch of numbers. You can infer all you want but without breaking down the personnel, play call, and viewing the play itself, it makes no sense to even try to infer anything from the data.
     
  18. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    I really don't follow your logic at all. Honestly, I have no idea the point you are trying to make about a team in 1993 that gave up 3 points in the first half and then 38 in the second and overtime to lose the game. I get how the clock works in football. Good teams don't abandon the pass as soon as they get a lead. You may want to look at Brady's numbers when leading to see that passing the ball well does allow teams to put away games.
     
  19. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    C'mon...gimme a break. Inferences are made ALL THE TIME in sports. Players sign multi-million dollar contracts based on statistics. Players are voted to Pro Bowls and get MVPs based on statistics. When we talk about the #1 defense or the #32 defense in the NFL it is by making an inference from statistics that the team giving up the least or most yardage is better or worse.

    It has been way too long since my statistic class in grad school. But only a fool would think those numbers would NOT be statistically significant. If you can't see there is a significant difference between 13.68% vs 2.75% and 51.6% and 63.44% I don't what to say besides "good luck" with that. Feel free to run that test if you want to PROVE me wrong.
     
  20. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    Statistics

    Here is the problem with statistics:

    Let's say you are driving down the interstate and you realize that car needs gas. The reading on the digital readout says that you have 25 miles before the fuel tank is empty. For simplicity sake you are at mile marker 0. You see a sign advertising cheap gas at exit 24. So you ride by three exits before exit 24 that all have gas at a higher price. When you reach exit 24 you see the state road sign signaling your gas station 4 miles to the right. You run out of gas 2 miles from the gas station.

    No, that was not bad math. When you realized you were low on fuel, you took your foot off the floor. You slowed the car by 20 miles per hour just to save fuel. Still you were never going to be right because you could never slow to a low enough rate of speed to save the couple more miles of gas.

    Were you wrong? Or were you dealing with an a calculation that you could never get right because you didn't have all of the information to calculate?

    I'd rather just say, "You cheapskate. You are walking now because you were dumb enough to ride by every opportunity to drive just to save 80 cents."
     
  21. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    My impression is that Henning has a tendency to call more max protect with one or two man routes when he goes conservative. Those situations are usually obvious due to both the formation and the frequency. IMO that predictability sets up the offense and Henne to fail.
     
  22. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    I find it odd that people are negatively commenting about the inferences made from a statistical analysis, but ignoring the fact they are making inferences about hennings play calling with nothing to back it up. While certainly the play calling has been questionable based on memory, logically their should be some statistics to back up that point of view as well.
     
  23. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    I find a few have false recollections anyway. Other than recording every single offensive snap and posting it on youtube, you are not going to prove that guy wrong. So what does it matter?

    The play calling guru will not be detered. There is some low hanging fruit and he is going to pick it. Quality be damned!
     
  24. Frayser

    Frayser Barstool Philosopher

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    Did I suggest it was chance or coincidence?
     
  25. Frayser

    Frayser Barstool Philosopher

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    Pointing out that one is drawing an inference is not the same thing as negatively commenting about it. Neither is pointing out that there is a just as equal inference that might be drawn.
     
  26. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    The drop in performance, as you put it is more likely due to the drastic increase in sacks...are the all Henne's fault or is due just as much to our porous OL ? I tend to think the latter...too much blame is put on one guy in the offense, even if it is the QB....the problem is more, imo, due to the lack of decent OL play than strictly to Henne's decision making...
     
  27. Onehondo

    Onehondo Senior Member Club Member

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    To say that Henne is a disappointment this year is stating a fact, whether you are a Henne supporter or not. The reasons he is a disappointment could be as varied as his performance has been thus far. He certainly has the arm and ability to succeed but the bigger question is whether he has the mental abilities to play as a "franchise quarterback". Another determining factor is whether we have the coaches and coordinator in place to best develop a young quarterback and to bring out the best in him. At this time Henne is not the quarterback we had hoped for and is not playing like the future of the Dolphins but I would hate to give up on him and he goes elsewhere and becomes another "Drew Brees" or a "Steve Young" who were disappontments with their original teams. I am by no means comparing him to either one of these All Pro Quarterbacks but there is an outside chance he could finally come around.
    The next question would be if he continues to struggle the rest of the year what do we invest in another quarterback. Do we finally use a first round pick on a another quarterback to compete with Henne? I don't think an aged veteran would be the answer, like a Donovan McNabb because we still don't have the future in place and it still leaves a big question mark. I don't know what the solution is but I hope Ireland or somebody does.
     
  28. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    I trust Ireland to find hidden gems. If anything, I think it's his greatest strength. If Detroit gets the #1 pick we should make them an offer they can't refuse for Luck. Let's face it, the defense is set for years and these schmendricks never got any offensive talent in the draft anyway. It's times like these when a team needs to make a bold move if they can or forever be a mediocre franchise.

    We've all seen this drama before. Let's not waste a great defense again.
     

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