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Why draft so early?

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football' started by GISH, Jul 11, 2008.

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  1. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    Why are you guys drafting in late June and early July? People ALWAYS get injured.
     
  2. DonShula84

    DonShula84 Moderator Luxury Box

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    They're just so excited they cant help themselves.
     
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  3. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Yeah that.

    I only did 4 drafts. I like to see who goes what round, and what not. Helps me prepare.
     
  4. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    yahoo offers the average draft position of each player. :up:
     
  5. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Yes but thats not the same as the real thing.
     
  6. Regan21286

    Regan21286 MCAT's, EMT's, AMCAS, ugh

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    I actually find that with smart drafting (and good predictions) that takes into consideration injuries, schedules, etc, I fare pretty well when drafting around this time. I'm not this year thanks to ESPN's mock practices, but a lot of times you can get real bargains if you have a good feeling about particular players (Witten in round 10? Adrian Peterson or Jamal Lewis in round 7, 8?).
     
  7. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Witten in round 10?!? Lies!
     
  8. Regan21286

    Regan21286 MCAT's, EMT's, AMCAS, ugh

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    Not at all. Witten had 750 yards the previous season but only 1 TD so that dropped him heavily compared to other TE's. People weren't completely confident in Tony Romo especially after that crushing loss (Parcells included!). Managers were a lot higher on LJ Smith, Benjamin Watson, Jeremy Shockey, Vernon Davis, Randy McMichael, and Alge Crumpler. So that left Witten very much available as the 14th TE taken. I had more confidence in Romo (I figured every young QB really leans on a TE) and Garrett's playcalling. There was also a huge grabbing melee for RB's, QB's so that left WR's and TE's down quite far. Not to mention Randy Moss was available in round 5 of that draft. That just proves my point, if you can somewhat guess if a guy's going to rebound or breakout, picking in early drafts really helps you.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2008
  9. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Was this last year??? Because Witten sometimes is the first TE taken now.
     
  10. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    im not buying that.

    its one thing to be good at predicting breakouts, sleepers, and rebounders. but to say that drafting in early July helps that cause, thats BS. You could just as easily have drafted Witten/Moss at the same position if your draft was the day before the season started. There is RARELY, and I mean VERRRRY rarely, any signs of a breakout during the preseason. Not only do the players not play, but the teams do not reveal their offenses. The risk of a TC injury far outweighs any advantage you could gain by drafting in July.

    How many fantasy owners are completely screwed if Tom Brady busts his knee in practice during the first week of camp? How many people will cry if Joseph Addai gets suspended for failing a drug test? These kinds of thing may seem extreme, but they are hardly rare. Mike Vick, broken leg. Ricky Williams, retired. Both were devastating blows to fantasy owners, as they were both top picks in those years. Heck, even Dominic Davis, he went from a first round pick, to completely nonexistent in the blink of an eye. Things always happen. I refuse to throw my eggs all in one basket before the season is very near.
     
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  11. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    there is a difference.

    say you draft Adrian Peterson today. Then he gets injured in TC. when it comes time for my draft, I wont have to worry about any of that, because I already know who got injured in TC. So while I suffer from regular season injuries. You will be suffering from regular season AND training camp injuries. That can easily be the death blow to a team that you thought was golden in July.
     
  12. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    It'd be great if ESPN's mock draft was actually up and operating. :shifty:
     
  13. arsenal

    arsenal Sunglasses and advil

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    i agree... i have one real keeper fantasy league offline with some buddies that i do... and we dont draft until the end of august...
     
  14. Regan21286

    Regan21286 MCAT's, EMT's, AMCAS, ugh

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    This was last year's draft. Which is exactly my point. People were down on his 2006-07 year, the fact that Romo hasn't been proven a whole year, a whole new coaching change, unknown in Garrett, etc, etc. Now everyone's going after him.

    It is not BS. I was one of those who lost out on Davis, or whatever his name is now. It's a gamble with big payoffs or big losses. I never said throw all your eggs in one basket, I only have one or two teams that draft very early. Things do happen. No doubt about that. But when you draft early and know who you're going to draft, you should have an easier time getting that particular player because no one else will be thinking the same thing. I look a lot at offseason transactions and previous year efforts. You could draft right before the season starts but then everyone will know who to pick and you can't get away with drafting potential breakouts, sleepers, or rebounders since they'll know to pick them too.
     
  15. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Last year I picked up Witten in the last round (think it was round 10 or 12)
     
  16. vmarcilfan75

    vmarcilfan75 blah...blah...blah... Club Member

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    i have a draft starting Monday(lasts 2 weeks)
     
  17. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    Then why were Wes Welker and Randy Moss still available so late last year, even in late August. Only playing games can really change a players value for the better. Can you give me an example of a player who's draft position changed for the better from July to August?
     
  18. Regan21286

    Regan21286 MCAT's, EMT's, AMCAS, ugh

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    In my first draft of that year, I saw Moss land all the way to round 7. In my last draft approaching September 1st, Moss was selected in round 3. He was actually my #3 WR on a few teams just before the season began. Adrian Peterson began in July as a questionmark and more than available past the 5th round because of concerns about whether Chester Taylor would be the starter or not. By August, with a good preseason and being anointed the starter, you had trouble getting him past the 3rd round.
     
  19. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    great example with AP. I also noticed his draft position rise during the preseason last year. It slipped my mind. At first he was getting lumped in with guys like Tatum Bell.

    thanks for helping me find a reason to draft early. because in previous years, i was doing it, but only for practice. I guess if you can predict properly, you can get an extra edge. i may try a draft tomorrow. but no more than one.
     
  20. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Its all about player preference. I know who I like and I know who to stay away.
     
  21. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    What were your higher opinions based on? Player personnel changes, and new contracts? Most of those players were high on my chart pretty early in the year. With the exception of Ben and Eli. They were tier 3 QBs on my rankings. Garrard too. But each of them were higher than the previous year. I wish Miami could steal Holmes from Pitt. It would be funny to see Henne throwing to Ginn and Holmes. What's that called again, irony?
     
  22. Regan21286

    Regan21286 MCAT's, EMT's, AMCAS, ugh

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    Yep, I wouldn't recommend having all your teams early but one or two is more than enough to get a few early birds. So if you think Darren McFadden is going to burst out like Adrian Peterson, now's the time to grab because once Raiders decide to start him fully over Fargas and they go run-oriented, he'll be gone pretty soon.
     
  23. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Good things come to those who wait. The fantasy football experience is made much better by waiting until the last week or two before football season to have your draft. Otherwise you end up staring at your team like a zombie for two months waiting for the season to start.
     
  24. Regan21286

    Regan21286 MCAT's, EMT's, AMCAS, ugh

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    Or you start noticing guys you had earlier pegged as must-grabs in the later rounds eventually get a build up in hype and thus make themselves inaccessible to your draft spot. I call it the Philip Rivers effect. Someone who was formerly a 2nd or even early 3rd round pick in real life gets a lot of pub and rises to the top of the 1st round. That was exactly what happened with Adrian Peterson. Then you start staring at your team like a zombie because instead of getting Peterson as a possible #3 RB late in the draft, you have high picks Larry Johnson and Rudi Johnson going down. Just watch, right now McFadden's a possible 3rd/4th and below pick. If he gets anointed the full-time starter over Fargas, he'll shoot to 2nd/3rd and no more, leaving you with a selection of Ahman Green, Deuce McCallister, or Felix Jones at the original spot.
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2008
  25. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    What difference does any of this really make though? I play in a very competetive league so we all have the same information at every stage of the season and draft accordingly. I prefer to have all the information, including injuries and preseason body of work. Then I can make an informed decision and draft players based on where I think they deserve to be drafted. If someone wants to reach on a sleeper, it doesn't bother me any. That just means there will be more talent for me to grab in later rounds. Anything that can be gained by grabbing a guy before others get high on him is easily be wiped out by injuries to your team, picking guys that don't pan out, etc.
     
  26. Regan21286

    Regan21286 MCAT's, EMT's, AMCAS, ugh

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    Not necessarily. RB's are hard to come by and if you can land an Adrian Peterson in round 6, that's better than landing a Kevin Jones. Once all the talent surfaces to the top, you won't necessarily get talent in the later rounds because then everyone already knows by then that they're doomed to be a backup or a split-carry person and it's all left to draft position. Drafting early is a big gamble that can pay off big especially in a competitive league where everyone has the same info. If you feel you have a very keen sense of drafting, you come out ahead if you draft early. Because you'll grab guys you have a better hunch on than others before they can make an "informed" decision and pick em before you and thus leave you with leftovers.
     
  27. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Argument still doesn't hold. If I have a hunch on a guy based on his college body of work or any other information, others in my league will have a similar hunch. Everything is still equal and someone has just a good a chance as having the same hunch I do. Even if there was an advantage to drafting early, everyone else would be privy to that same advantage meaning it really doesn't matter. To think it would matter would be giving myself too much credit. Even though I did win my league last year...:up:
     
  28. Regan21286

    Regan21286 MCAT's, EMT's, AMCAS, ugh

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    Absolutely not. Most people would consider a guy like AP too risky to draft so early especially when early news came that Chester Taylor would be the unquestioned starter. Only fools, Oklahoma fanboys, or careful prospectors willing to gamble big would have selected him based on that information. Unless you're in a league full of your clones, you have a great chance and nabbing him then. I won my early league solely because of such well-informed gambles (AP - 6th round, Welker - 12th round) that no one would take (did draft 8th so I didn't really have much to go with).
     
  29. vmarcilfan75

    vmarcilfan75 blah...blah...blah... Club Member

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    I called AP being a TOP 5 RBs for 2008 last year over at the other site.
    Got laughed at by someone there(forgot his name)
     

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