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Why the Ryan Tannehill era is over in Miami

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Finster, Dec 19, 2016.

  1. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Dude...congratz for starting a thread that will forever go down in thephins.com lore...seriously this thread will be spoken of years from now....its that epic.

    I think the chances of you being accurate in your theory are less then remote...but its your theory and your certainly entitled to a respectful response.

    Ok..now that we got that out of the way..
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2016
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  2. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    When you consider Gase's track record, it seems like a no brainer.


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  3. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=- Club Member

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    [​IMG]

    Hands down best dude we've had under center since Marino.
     
  4. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    There are a few guys I respect as talent evaluators that like Doughty.
     
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  5. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    I won't even bother. Just reading the title killed some of my brain cells.

    And I don't have that many left.
     
  6. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    I know that song!!!

    Another Rainy Night, Queensryche
     
  7. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Adam Gase just got a 120 passer rating out of Matt Moore on the road, after he essentially hasn't played in five seasons.

    Whatever investment Miami makes in the QB position is likely to have positive returns.


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  8. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    This thread might make me finally pay for club. so there's that.

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Right...I should have clarified...prior to Gase's reign.
     
  10. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Like I said, I can see a late round pick up, but it'd be crazy to me to pick up a QB in early or mid rounds. Too many holes.
     
  11. dolfaniss

    dolfaniss Junior Member

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    Honestly I don't know what I'd think of Gase if he moved on from RT in the upcoming offseason. His ringing endorsements and conviction to Ryan, including insulting the media for their QB evaluation skills, seems to make this idea impossible. Barring a career ending knee injury the Ryan Tannehill era in just beginning.


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  12. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    It's BEYOND worth it Destroyer.
     
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  13. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    True, forgot all about that as well.
     
  14. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Finster obviously never saw tropical thunder
     
  15. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    I always avoid the mains after a loss because of the insane overreaction and stupid rants and ideas that are generated. But this takes the cake. maybe the dumbest thread of the year (certainly good enough to be nominated) after we win another big game and currently hold the #6 seed.
     
  16. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    Big difference for a team, though, when its QB has a passer rating of 110 over a season, and when its QB has one of 95, thus my point earlier.

    Gase could get the positive returns consisting of coaxing a 95 passer rating out of an 88 guy, or he could get the positive returns of coaxing 110 out of a 103 guy.

    The latter of those two scenarios is likely to result in a whole lot more winning.
     
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  17. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well said Ohio!. We just won a big game and currently hold the #6 seed......and this is what is on the OP's mind? Best time in a long time to be a Dolphin fan, why can't we just enjoy the ride?
     
  18. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I'm not talking about play on the field. You're likely looking at a situation where you're able to trade a QB for significant value. Hell, if MM plays well enough for the remainder of this season, you potentially could turn him into a mid or late round pick.


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  19. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    That band name sound vaguely familiar...
     
  20. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    OK I was talking about the context of the first post and whether Tannehill is the right choice moving forward. I think it's a legitimate question whether Tannehill, at 10% of the salary cap in 2017, is the better choice than another QB, who would absorb much less of the cap, if Gase thinks he can coax let's say a 107 to 110 passer rating out of a cheaper guy, and if in fact he feels he can coax only 95 to 98 out of Tannehill.

    In that sense we're both talking about economics.
     
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  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I love how every time this conversation starts we go to completion percentage and redzone stats.

    Miami is in a 5-way tie for 20th in total red zone attempts, which means there's only 7 teams worse than us in getting inside the 20. And while Tannehill has been a lot more efficient this year in the red zone, we're just not getting there enough.

    Now, you can say that maybe the stat is off because of deep passes and skipping the red zone completely, but Tannehill hasn't had more than 1 deep TD pass per game. We're 17th in points per game though, which correlates well with our trips to the red zone. It's not the deep passing keeping us behind the league average.

    For completion percentage, Tannehill is 6th overall and 7th in yards per attempt...which sounds great on paper. Yet he's 25th in total yards and 18th for TD's. Doesn't make a lot of sense until you look at the film and see Landry or Ajayi consistently taking a screen pass for 7-9 yards.

    Look, I'm a fan of Tannehill and I want to see him here long term. I honestly think Finster is wrong, but none of us know what's on Gase's mind or how Moore's performance may change it in the weeks to come. But until we are above the league average in PPG, I think Gase is too smart not to do everything he can to make this offense better....and it was better under Moore last week.

    And remember, Moore put up more points in three quarters than Tannehill managed in four quarters all year. That's impossible to ignore by any coach.
     
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  22. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    From your name I bet you know that name lol
     
  23. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Some talk of the rust on Moore who has not played in 5 years, yet he played as well if not better then the QB who has been playing for 5 years. The offense kinda looked explosive. I don't really care what the pass looks like as long as it does what it is supposed to.

    I know some are really scared Tannehill could be replaced because they are such huge fans of his. I get it. I was like that when I was 6 or 7 years old and attached to players.

    It would be hard not to like Tannehill as a player and a person because he does play through a lot of hits he takes. I admire that about him.

    They do like Doughty or else they would not have kept him around. We will see what happens next year, but this year they like him.

    Same thing with all players basically.

    I looking forward to seeing what Moore does the rest of the year. The Bills put up a lot of points Sunday, not sure how we do against their run game, that will be key.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Looking at passer ratings for QB's that started 9 or more games from 2011-2015, the line:

    W = 0.174*PR - 7

    where W = "projected wins" (it's projected to 16 games if they started fewer than 16) and PR = "passer rating" fits the data fairly well. So if PR = 95, then W = 0.174*95 - 7 = 9.53 wins on average, and if PR = 110, then W = 0.174*110 - 7 = 12.14 wins on average.

    So the average difference between 95 passer rating QB and a 110 passer rating QB is around 2.5 wins per season. Pretty big eh?

    One disclaimer to this is that these are only averages. It's important to remember the range shrinks as you get higher (there's a ceiling on wins). For 90-100 passer rating, you'll get at the extreme low end 4 wins and the extreme high end 15 wins, though most are between 6 and 12. For 105-115, the range is much smaller, going from 9 to 13, though most are between 11-13.
     
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  25. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    We should have taken a QB in the last draft. If that QBs name was Dak Prescott and he went on a tear while Tannehill was out then I'd say we probably would move on. But right now my money is on business as usual with Tannehill and Moore as our QBs in 2017.
     
  26. Colmax

    Colmax Well-Known Member

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    I would be very surprised if Tannehill is cut. It's not warranted. I think the man upstairs will have plenty to say about it, and Tannehill will be fine; even IF Gase feels he cannot work with Tannehill. My gut tells me otherwise, but stranger things have happened.

    Now IF Tanny is cut (I'd prefer a trade), someone is going to have to cough up some dough. I think there are teams who would pony up the money for a Tannehill. Again, I don't think this happens, but even the great Peyton Manning didn't stay with one team. Of course, the Colts got Luck. Who will Miami replace Tanny with? Brees? A rookie? I'm not sold on any QB in the draft. Just not.

    IF Tanny were to go elsewhere, you're basically starting all over. You are telling everyone that we're going in a different direction. You're succumbing to a rebuilding mindset. Again, there has been too much building to get TO THIS POINT to start all over at QB.

    With that, I actually have a few bones to pick with you, Fin. We've sparred before, and while I use to stick around for a few hits, I just don't have the time nowadays like years back. No disrespect to you, because while I might disagree, you can make reasonable points.

    The touch thing I would have agreed with you in years past, except he's shown on multiple occasions this year that he has it. The wheel routes to Damien Williams are prime examples.

    Watch the Cleveland game and tell me he doesn't have exceptional touch. Hell, check out the Chargers game. And throwing OVER, at times, multiple defenders are on display in those games as well. They're also on display in other games. So I cannot agree with you on those points. His touch and ability to hit passes over defenders are the least of my worries with him.

    The "read open" stuff; I can't say for certain if he is lacking in that department. I have seen a play where he pulled back on what I think falls into this category and then hit an open Kenny Stills for a TD. The receiver he looked at (maybe Gray?) seemed a tad too close to the sidelines (I think the backer or safety didn't bite) and almost immediately, he flicks it 20+ yards downfield for a Stills TD. If the defenders just do a good job, you cannot really blame Tannehill. But I don't know a coach who wouldn't take that play.

    His decision-making for these bigger plays has gotten so much better.

    On a couple of broken rollouts, he eyes a defender(s) then makes incredible throws to the open man he dragged away from that receiver, showing INCREDIBLE 'touch'. One could argue that the deep ball requires a certain amount of touch. A good number of those have gone for "touch"downs.

    I think we don't see the seam route all that much (not at all really) because we don't have a tight end who can run that. I'd love to see it, too. Maybe with Sims because of his size, but he's probably still pretty green in the route running dept. Probably lacks the getaway, as well. Maybe Caroo can fill in that role sometime in the future? We used Clay in that and Tannehill was pretty successful with it.

    And let's be honest, some of these routes may not be appropriate or even necessary with this personnel.

    Footwork? I can't argue. I can say he's gotten better. And knowing Tannehill, he will get better. You can't knock the guy for not improving, because he improves in some necessary aspect of his game EVERY SINGLE YEAR. The frustrating part is the wait.

    Under center? Many QBs work out of the gun. Let me renege that statement: ALL QBs work out of it. The play-action stuff Miami runs seems very good. No back sets...I just don't know. You could be right in that.

    The short stuff I cannot knock. It's necessary. All teams do it for various reasons. It's a staple of the Patsie offense.

    If this is just a gut feeling you got, that's fine. Everyone gets those. You had a gut about Dak Prescott before the season started, and I gave you a personal reason as to why I didn't like him. I also didn't think he would be doing as well as he has. You totally nailed that.

    In this, I personally just don't see it. I'm not the most versed in some of these X and O things, so I could be off. But I do see players, and I just don't see this player being on another team in '17.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2016
  27. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachp...ami-dolphins-run-nfls-most-explosive-offense/

    The Miami Dolphins are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL.
     
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  28. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    Yes, Indeed!
     
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  29. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    Intense overreaction to one game against a team that quit on the season already.

    You couldn't at least wait to see what happens the next two weeks before you start this?

    And if we should be putting up 40 a game easy and Tannehill was holding us back, how come we only got 34 on the Jets, and one of them was on special teams?
     
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  30. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I think the line is "strange how laughter looks like crying with no sound" but it does fit with the idea we can watch Gase and his facial expressions on the sidelines.... and JUST KNOW what he is thinking.

    Hey, maybe we can get the #1 pick from the Browns for Tanny? We'll need it after Moore takes us to Super Bowl glory and we end up having our pick drop all the way to #32.
     
  31. Hiruma78

    Hiruma78 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    [​IMG]

    anyway, as a forum we should be grateful, these kind of thread are just to keep the conversation going on and, to this end, any provocative, no matter how much absurd a theory is (on the contrary, you could say more absurd the better), the relevant point is to get a reaction of any kind (enraged, supportive or even like mine now, for example), so the conversation never stops.

    South Park, as usual, teach us the Truth

    [​IMG]
     
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  32. MAFishFan

    MAFishFan Team Tannehill

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    Why can't we like Moore and Tannehill? Isn't the goal to have a good backup QB? I'm lost.
     
  33. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    let's assume RT is done. what is the exit plan?
     
  34. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    Yes. And now do the same kinds of numbers, but using passer rating differential, and then consider what the team could do to improve the pass defense if there was salary cap money freed up to fund it from having a cheaper QB. Look at the relationship between passer rating differential and winning, from 2004 through the present time.
     
  35. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    Consider however that Adam Gase may be supporting Tannehill publicly because of pressure from the front office, and that if Matt Moore is wildly successful during this period it may give Gase what he needs to persuade the front office that they're better off allowing him to coax maximum potential out of someone else.

    After all, Gase was hired to maximize Tannehill. He'd be a fool to start that job criticizing Tannehill publicly. To toe the company line he needs to support Tannehill publicly and give him a full year as a starter under his tutelage.

    Now, throw Moore in the mix, and let him perform the way he did against the Jets for the remainder of the season. Now Gase has much more leverage with the front office.
     
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  36. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Literally NO ONE is scared of Tannehill being replaced. Don't project your 'hopes' onto those of us with common sense, please.

    Also lol @ the Dolphins being one the most explosive in the NFL, ****ting on your post. Go figure.
     
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  37. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    well said Travis
     
  38. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    I love how nothing you said delegitimizes the stats I showed. My post was a response to something as ridiculous as we are under utlizing our WR talent, etc.

    Chad pennington universally recognized as one of the best at completion %s, tannehill has only 10 less pass attempts on the season with 13 games played compared to probably penningtons best season statistically which was 15 games played, and only a 1.8% difference between the two in completions.The jets that year were 17th in passing yards, 10th in passing TDs, and 15th in rushing yet made 2nd round of the playoffs. its obvious he doesnt and shouldnt need to pass 40+ times a game. that is a coaching issue and the fact that we were trailing ALOT in most games. We actually have the threat of a run game now, which no one respected before, another factor. So his pass attempts are down to 30 a game. he's on track for about 100 less attempts than normal for a season. thats only 6 less per game. easily explainable by our run game and not being down big numbers early. Not a knock on Tannehill. Stuff like PPG doesnt solely fall on his shoulders.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2016
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  39. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    File this with the "Move Zach Thomas to safety" thread
     
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  40. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You do realize that in the history of the NFL a QB has finished a season with a passer rating over 110 only 16 times. So basically you are saying there is a big difference when a QB has a historically good season.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2016
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