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Why the Ryan Tannehill era is over in Miami

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Finster, Dec 19, 2016.

  1. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    the other guy didn't want to start RT, so Gase got the job, yet RT was not forced on him.........okkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
     
  2. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    So if this runnincm or whatever is a Jets fan, why do they allow him to stay?
     
  3. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Do you have a source for any of this at all?
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2016
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  4. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    What you all are skirting around the edges of here is good old passer rating, which combines completion percentage, YPA, TDs, and INTs.

    There is a 0.92 correlation between passer rating differential and win percentage in the NFL since 2004, when the rules were changed to favor the passing game. That's an extremely strong correlation. What it means is that teams are very likely to win they 1) achieve a high passer rating, and 2) diminish opposing teams' passer ratings.

    The Patriots have the highest passer rating differential and the highest win percentage in the league during that period, followed by Green Bay. The Dolphins are slightly below average in both categories during that period.

    This is why, in the current-day NFL, you win by having one of the league's best QBs, and/or one of the league's best defenses.

    So, for the Dolphins to be highly competitive, they'll have to either coax a passer rating out of Tannehill that's similar to the one he exhibited over the last eight games of his 2016 season, or amass one of the league's best defenses and thereby diminish the passer ratings of opposing teams.

    This is where Tannehill's salary cap hit figures into the equation. He'll be making 10% of the team's salary cap money in 2017.

    Obviously to the extent that one player absorbs a great deal of a team's salary cap, the team is thus prevented from paying as much talent elsewhere on the roster. In this case, that would mean Tannehill's presence on the roster could interfere with the effort to amass the defensive talent that may be necessary, that I mentioned above.

    This is the current quandary for the Dolphins, and it's not an easy one to sort through.
     
    Finster likes this.
  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    You showing up here, under yet another new user name, after multiple bans, is a quandary.
     
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  6. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'd love to see where you are getting that info. From early on Gase was thought to be Ross's pick

    And I have been told by multiple people that Ross most likes Adam Gase at the start of these interviews.

    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolp...ven-as-the-miami-dolphins-wade-through-t.html

    When Ross was interviewed during half time of one of the preseason games, he said that he went with his own instincts instead of listening to outside sources.

     
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  7. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    The light bulbs are broken for them. I'm not sure they even have candles
     
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  8. evo8904

    evo8904 Active Member

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    That's exactly why I would trade Tannehill. We could get a lot of draft picks for Tannehill right now. There aren't any QBs in this years draft. Teams like Cleveland would most likely jump all over Tannehill. I would feel bad about sending him to Cleveland; the place where QB careers end. However, with the draft and free agency, we could have a beast of a defense. I think that Gase can make any QB look good.

    Plus, Tannehill only averaged 1.46 PTDs per game.
     
  9. RealDolphinsFan2

    RealDolphinsFan2 Member

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    Well said.
     
  10. RealDolphinsFan2

    RealDolphinsFan2 Member

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    It's not about where u have him ranked, or even about whether or not he justifies his salary, it's the other things u have said that are so off base. Donald is probably the best DT in the league right now, but Suh is a close 2nd imo, but that's not why I think ur comments on him were so off. U questioned the greatness of Suh the player, pure and simple, and u were wrong. Ur claims that he is a long shot at the Hof are way off base, but that's subject to opinion. But for u to nitpick his ability in the run game, and the impact he had on detroits top run defense his last year there, is laughable. It's one thing to question the contract that he got and whether or not it helps this team, totally sensible debate. But for u to question the pure and unadulterated talent of this man with ur nitpicking and "film study", is a complete and absolute joke, always has been. Suh is as elite as they come and has a great chance at the Hof if he keeps doing what he does. You've said fletcher Cox is easily better than suh, despite his disappointing season and the fact he has 3 killer roughing the passer pi's this season alone that all resulted in touchdowns. Cox is a great player, but he's still young and makes bone headed plays Suh doesn't, not to mention Suh is leading the AFC in tackles and is 2nd in sacks for dts. Cox may be better than suh one day, he certainly has the talent. But for u to say Cox is already easily better than suh, not to mention the other guys like Mccoy who definitely isn't and has even said so himself, tells me a lot about how much u know about the nfl.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2016
  11. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    Actually I'm going to go ahead and leave on my own this time. You all take care. :)
     
  12. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Add in the fact that ever since the short, quick passing game came into vogue from new England, a pass pressure DT has become more valuable than a pass pressure DE/OLB. It's literally the most important defensive position in the last five years and we have a top 3 manning it
     
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  13. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Yes.
     
  14. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You guys are so funny.

    Tanny ain't going anywhere. Is he the qb that Gase wants him to be? Not yet. But he's always been a starter in this league starting in 2013 and solidified in 2014. YOU DONT GRT RID OF STARTERS unless Dak Prescott comes along.

    You guys might label me a hater and I give two faks about that. I wanted to see more. Maybe my standards are higher than yours but that's what I wanted. I saw some this year. He has to keep it up for next year. He had a great stretch in 2014 and it didn't carry. This year his Ypa was higher, good. TD/INT ratio could be better.

    Next year Id like to see him carry good numbers and play all year long. 95+ rating, 7.7 Ypa, 30/10 would be good.
     
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Some of it was in the media at the time, but I had a direct source as well. Moore came very close to leaving Miami in 2012 and 2013.
     
  16. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Oh, and you guys poopooing on this thread threatening to run to the Club yet there is a similar discussion over there. With less hyperbole obviously. The OP's opinion (and he stated it as such) is that it is over for Tanny. I disagree but he's made legit points in the OP.
     
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  17. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lamar Miller wasn't effective?
     
  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    He never said or implied that.

    We do know with facts, however, that the Dolphins ran the ball the fewest amount of times in the league last year.

    Which is obviously what Dwreck is talking about.
     
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ross did like Gase from the start...it should be obvious that he wouldn't have hired him otherwise. But he's also a huge fan of Ryan Tannehill and a large majority of the front office believed that he never got a fair evaluation behind an epic bad offensive line. One of the first questions Ross asked in the interview process was, "Would you start Tannehill in 2016?" When the answer was no, each candidate was scratched from the list.

    Some people have twisted my words here- I never said that Gase wasn't high on Tannehill. The two got along great from the very start and RT trusts him. My only point was that Gase promised to use this season to evaluate Tannehill and do everything in his power to make him a solid starter. And he's done that- Tannehill has played great this season compared to prior years. Fixing the line was a big part of that, but it was also about footwork, pocket presence, etc. Lots of little things that make a big difference combined.
     
  20. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He took issue with the poster being happy the coaches pulled back on Tanny's pass attempts. Dwreck is implying it's not an indictment on Tanny but is due to the fact we have a run threat this year. We've had it the past years as well. Meaning, we could have pulled back on Tanny the past two years as well. And we should have. You e argued that. Pointing out the obvious. We have had run threats not just this year. Tannya did better when we ask him to do list. For a couple games it was a lot less
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    You're slicing this as thin as you can in a sad attempt at a gotcha.

    There was no run threat last year, because we weren't going to run. Didn't matter if it was Miller or a frankenback made up of Payton, Sayers, Simpson & Brown. There's no such thing as running threat if...get this....there's little threat a run is going to be called.
     
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  22. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Where are you getting this stuff from!?!? This has literally never been reported...



    Or this:

     
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  23. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    I see you got it covered, thanks. lol. Jdang certainly uses the word 'threat' a lot more loosely than I do.
     
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  24. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is very interesting stuff that I have never heard before. Can you provide a link so we can all read up on it.
     
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  25. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Dak
    Now its dak presscot? Is that the QB flavor of the month now? Don't get me wrong. There's a lot to like about him but he has a few severe flaws.
     
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  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This stuff definitely didn't come from a media source. I shared it here before Gase was even hired though.
     
  27. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So how did you come by this knowledge then?
     
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  28. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not Dak obviously. He's in Dallas duh.

    He's a late round qb which is where I'd advocate looking at QBs .
     
  29. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    I am sure he "knows someone deep in the franchise" and won't be able to give any proof, par for the course.
     
  30. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I can be down with that. Id like to see him improve even more next season...and he should. Another season with Gase in this offense should drive continued improvement.
     
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  31. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    His injury was so freakin' untimely. I wanted badly to see how he'd perform down the post-Thanksiving stretch with the playoffs down the line. Would've helped me decide how I feel about the guy.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Using average passer rating allowed so far this year:
    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating

    This is how Tannehill's passer rating for each game compares to the average passer rating allowed of each opponent:
    https://i.imgsafe.org/ae917ea4ab.png

    Tannehill actually ended up a bit above 0 difference with +4.65. It's not significantly above average though. So when adjusting for opponent Tannehill is average if you only use passer rating as a measure.


    Regarding this ANY/A vs. Y/A debate, both are OK measures. There's not a stat in the world that takes everything into account so that's not a good way to attack a stat. Best (objective) way to see the relative importance of each is to simply look at the correlations of various stats to win%. The higher the absolute value of that correlation, the better the measure it is. The correlation to wins of various stats (including ANY/A and Y/A) from 1990-2011 is listed here:
    http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/#footnote_1_150

    ANY/A is at 0.55 and Y/A is at 0.43 so that should be the relative importance of each, without any other information. Clearly ANY/A is better but 0.43 is pretty good for football. Get down to the 0.2 or so range and that's when you start to discard the stat. The question is why is ANY/A better?

    The formula for ANY/A = (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks)

    As you can see ANY/A not only includes a modified Y/A in it, but it also includes TD's and INT's. Notably TD's = points scored, so naturally if you include points in the calculation, it will help correlate to wins better (because you can 100% predict wins with points scored - points given up).

    Point is.. it's not that Y/A is a bad stat, it's that ANY/A just does better by including more things (same as what passer rating does).
     
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  33. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    You can use this link to see where QB's this year are ranked on various measures:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm

    INT% Tannehill is ranked 26th among QB's that started at least 9 games.

    As I said in the post above.. the relative weight you should place on INT% to say Y/A or other stats should be the correlations to win%:
    http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/#footnote_1_150

    INT% is correlated at -0.31, while let's say Y/A is correlated at 0.43, so the relative importance of Y/A to INT% should be 0.43 to 0.31, at least without any other info to go on.
     
  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    As SICK said, through someone in the Dolphins organization.

    Only an idiot would intentionally burn bridges to prove a point in a public forum. I'll sleep just fine at night without you believing me.
     
  35. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Me too. He's struggled in December so I was really looking forward to seeing how he closed this stretch out. I had faith that he'd play well...but that's definitely not the same as seeing him do it with playoffs on the line.
     
  36. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Don't worry. literally no one believes you.
     
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  37. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    If he told you he'd have to kill you :001_rolleyes:
     
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  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Cool, thanks for polling the entire forum in the last 14 minutes. I like my online stalkers to be fully educated so their trolling has that personal feel to it.
     
  39. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Oh dude calm down, I am just razzing you. Mean no harm for real :hi5:
     
  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    LOL, I know. We argue so darn much that I was thinking we should get together for a game one of these days. I'm about an hour South of you in Spartanburg.
     
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