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Why You Should Believe in Matt Moore

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 13, 2016.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I'll tell you why I'm still on the fence.

    First of all he only put up average numbers (efficiency-wise) before this year. This year (whole year), he's got overall slightly above average numbers, with at least one key one finally in the top 10: Y/A. But in passer rating (overall the best because of its correlation to winning) he's still within a standard deviation of the mean (though at least he's above the mean).

    So just looking at it from a numbers point of view, he's overall above average but not by that much.

    Stats aside, the key issue for me is consistency. I'd say there were only 2 games this year where he played clear-cut from start to finish as a franchise QB: against SD and SF. The Arizona game was good too (just not on the level of the other two IMO). So 3 maybe. But we saw him play bad against Baltimore, play crappy the entire game except the last two drives against the Rams (though I'll give him credit for playing well when it counted, but otherwise that was crappy), and for the other games during the recent win streak he was mostly there to hand off the ball to Ajayi and didn't play particularly well or that bad.. just average. And of course he played either OK or like crap during the first 5 games.

    The big difference this year of course is that he's had several games where from start to finish where he played real well, so he's definitely showing improvement. But for me there are still two questions I wanted to see answered and possibly might not get to see answered this year because of the injury: 1) can he play more often at a high level for an entire game and not just for a few series or for part of the game (because that's the Tannehill we had before), and 2) how well does he play when the playoffs are on the line?

    To the 2nd point, it's really sad he had this injury because his play when the playoffs are on the line really matters to me, and he's 1-1 this year and a lot worse in previous years.. (that 0-2 at the end of 2013 REALLY sticks in memory.. so deflating).

    Anyway, that's why I'm still on the fence. But at least he's proven he can play better than I thought he could before this season in individual games.. it's just not yet consistent enough for me to say he's clear-cut a franchise QB.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
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  2. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Tannehill could hoist the Lombardi over his head for all to see, be named league MVP and some dolphins fans will still say they don't think he's a franchise QB. I've come to grips with the fact that nothing he can do will change some peoples minds. Not saying he's done anything close to that, but that's just the way it is.
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Doesn't hold true for me though. I stated very clearly even before this season that if a Tannehill-led team makes and wins in the playoffs, I'm fine with him as our franchise QB even if he plays only average.

    Goal #1 is to win the SB and in principle it doesn't matter how we do that. But the last 10 years of SB-winning QB's show that almost all the time you need great QB play (or a great QB) in the playoffs to win it which is why until we start winning in the playoffs I put the threshold for franchise QB higher than I otherwise would.
     
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  4. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    So if we make playoffs this year then Tannehill is a franchise QB to you by your own words? Just checking because this has been a Tannehill-led team in every sense of the phrase.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Well that's the issue.. he's injured so the last few games where it will be decided he can't play.

    Put it this way. If Matt Moore plays no better than Tannehill did with similar surrounding cast and we make the playoffs then yes I'm on board with Tannehill. Stats will matter here btw because you will have enough games over which to compare IF Moore starts the rest of the way.

    Other possibility is that Tannehill comes back week 17 with playoffs on the line (whatever happens next two games) and then that one game alone would decide it for me. Either he plays great but we miss the playoffs OR we make it regardless of his play and I'll be on board.
     
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  6. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    We'll see if the TEAM can Make the playoffs or not as a unit. If they do, Tannehill would be a huge part of the reason why. Even if he doesnt come back before week 17.

    I wonder how other teams fanbases have been dealing with their franchise QBs sucking *** this year.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think fans tend to excuse or be more patient with QB's that previously played at great heights.
     
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  8. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    And if they aren't dolphins fans. lol

    Luckily for them their respective teams got to a place where they got chances to see their QBs play at great heights.
     
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  9. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Where is he in TD's in this passing league?
     
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  10. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    No clue, but I'd guess somewhere in the 'average' range over his career? Relevance? He pointed out an incredible milestone by our QB and all you can do is try and downplay it. Do positive Tannehill stats/factoids make you angry?
     
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  11. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you need it explain to you then I question your objectivity or your historical knowledge of football.

    I'm not saying Tannehill is trash I never have. I actually think he improved quite a bit this year even if his numbers are just slightly better than the last. Couple of years. But go ahead and look at the list of the top yardage leaders in their first four years and it will be dominated all by more recent quarterbacks

    It's not meaningless but it's devalued. Put it this way. Nobody has thrown for more touchdowns in their first two years then Derek Carr, except one Dan Marino.

    These first 2 to 4 years stats have been recalibrated with rookie QB starting from their first game in the rookie year. I'm not even talking about how much more the league is passing in the easier rules. When Ben started his rookie year much was made about how he and Dan Marino were the only ones really to start in there rookie years and play well
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
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  12. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Please enlighten us on how this is meaningless, oh grand wizard of football knowledge.

    Edit: The longevity has meaning too.

    Editedit: don't think it's devalued at all. I don't think Carr is all that but I can still recognize that as being a pretty damn good achievement.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I compared his preparation to Manning. And let's end there as well.
     
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  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wreck thats a total exaggeration..I don't think this board is stupid, even the ones who are being critical...they all love the team and wants what's best for the team, and what's best for ryan..if anyone doesn't want ryan to succeed then your talking about a doucher..I don't see that at all
     
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  15. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I truly believe what you said if applied to you. Not the other people though. It can be proven just reading what they've said these past 8 weeks.
     
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  16. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    I mean its definitely an exaggeration (mostly..) but it just seems like some people's opinions of the guy are set in stone man. All im saying is if that happened, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised, just going off things I've read here alone. I really wouldn't be.
     
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  17. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    You do realize that Moore averages 0.65 INT's per game and Cutler averages 1.05 INT's per game for their careers right? Hell just to put that into perspective - Tannehill is averaging 0.88 INT's a game.

    The "protection" issues more or less are with ball security when it comes to fumbling. It's a legitimate concern, as we'll be yielding a backup center out there with whom he hasn't put in much work with - at least I think. Then again the line overall is better than what Moore has previously worked with.
     
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  18. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Some will find a way to rip into you personally - even though you spelled it out pretty eloquently.
     
  19. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Ohhhh I see. It's a "team" sport, but it's a mostly Tannehill-led one.

    Ironic ........ After all, haven't some of us been saying for the longest time we wanted him to strap the team to his back? Then again when the playoffs were on the line, was 1 for 1 ...... big blowout vs the Ravens and a good half vs. the Cards.

    We still don't know what this kid is made of yet on a consistency level when the games really matter. That's what I hate about the injury because it delays this process.
     
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  20. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Serious question. Do you honestly think we should compare Moore's INT per game avg to Cutlers when Moore has attempted 3,717 less passes than him.

    LITTTTTTTTTTTLLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEE bit of a skew in the numbers
     
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  21. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Skewed?

    Please explain to me how one arrives at the idea he's a gunslinger and INT machine on the level of Jay Cutler then. If you want to perhaps talk multiple INT games as another litmus - Moore only has 5 of those in 43 games.
     
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  22. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    Moore's career interception rate is 3.6%. Cutler's career interception rate without Gase has been 3.4%. With Gase it was 2.3%

    Tannehill's career interception rate is 2.5%. Tannehill has been a better ball protector than both Moore and Cutler, except for when Cutler had the benefit of Gase.

    The Dolphins will need that sort of ball protection in these final three games, because their pass defense isn't good enough to withstand a poor outing by their own quarterback.
     
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  23. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Oh wait, you're not going by per games. You're using per attempts if I'm not mistaken. However, if they manage Moore the way he's always been as far as attempts are concerned - we're fine as far as him not becoming a "INT" machine.

    I'm going to pull up Cutler's multi-INT games as another comparison ....... EDIT: Cutler has 36 of those games and almost 5 games of 3+ INT's.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
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  24. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    You're lumping a percentage statistic in comparison when one has thrown the ball 774 times

    and the other has thrown in 4491 times

    That's not comparable either way.

    I never said he was a gunslinger INT machine, I am just saying using that % is whack and not relevant since there is not enough data either way for it to be comparable.
     
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  25. dolfaniss

    dolfaniss Junior Member

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    I believe in Tannehill wholeheartedly now, never did before. He makes throws only like him and Aaron Rodgers can make. You can't teach that kind of physical talent. Also, I don't think he's a finished product just yet. He will continue to get even better under Gase. I finally think our future is bright so I'm going to try not to fall apart if we don't make the playoffs (like the message boards obviously will).

    I like Matt Moore and hope he plays well. Good guy and really made some games fun to watch in 2011. We weren't getting Andrew Luck so people need to erase that from their minds. Out sucking Indy would have taken me at QB.
     
  26. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Since apparently you decide these things - what is the minimum attempts allowed before we can compare them?

    My point stands, if the Dolphins manage Moore's snap count the way it was done for his prior 43 appearances - they won't have issues with him becoming an INT machine. The problem with him in the past was fumbling. Then again, we have a better line than when he was sacked 36 times back in 2011.
     
  27. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    Is this Rock guy real???
     
  28. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Are you?
     
  29. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Well lets just start at maybe dismissing when its so separated Moore has attempted a good season and a half of Cutlers 11 years in the league. Its a huge ****ing difference dude.

    Me and you flip a coin.

    I flip it 10 times and get tails twice. That's 20% tails per flip ratio.

    You flip the coin 1000 times, and it lands on tails 250 times that's 25% of the time

    You have a "better" ratio of landing on tails. However, I didn't get nearly the amount of opportunities to do better OR worse....so its not ****ing fair to gloat/compare. Do you see how simple that is?
     
  30. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    No.

    Their career attempts/game are different and that's not going to change at this point. This is what you fail to acknowledge. I doubt Gase is going to stand there and ask Moore to wing it 32+ times during this run against NJY, BUF, and NE. Not unless they're down big.
     
  31. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Yes, I agree, their attempts wont change. Cutler has attempted many more passes. So giving Moore a nod of a better int % is irrelevant.

    I also agree Gase won't be having him sling it out there, if he does we aren't winning and the season is over anyways, because we will be down big, again , def agree there with you.
     
  32. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    The Chiefs are able to restrict Alex Smith to that sort of game manager role by playing good defense, utilizing the running game, and having Smith throw shorter, high-percentage passes. And they do win that way.

    The issue with the Dolphins during these three games is that their defense is nowhere near as good, their running game is inconsistent, and Moore is nowhere near the kind of high-percentage, short area passer Smith is.

    Moore could very well be in a position in which he's asked to win the game from his position, and that'll be when Gase hopefully has the effect on him he had on Jay Cutler, in terms of interception-proneness.
     
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  33. Dolphins Dad

    Dolphins Dad Member

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    Very real. And realistic. No offense but your argument really lacks any substance. Seems more like you have made up your mind and will refuse to acknowledge any facts to disprove your point. To each his own.
     
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  34. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    The guy is 1:1 career td:int over his 9 years in the nfl... and has a pretty high fumble percentage too relative to his play time. Thats how you come to the conclusion that he is a turnover machine

    Better yet, Let's extrapolate his numbers so they match the playing time of Tannehill and Cutler. Lol. Now that's some scary ****.
     
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  35. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    So then have faith in Gase. You guys did for Tannehill and praise him for his work with Cutler.

    For me personally, I don't see the issue if the running game comes to play. They should not be asking Moore to strap the team to his back like that. That's a tall order given he basically hasn't played in a meaningful game in 5 years.
     
  36. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Thanks for sharing.
     
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  37. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    The argument was whether he was an INT machine like Cutler. I already well stated the concerns about the fumbles ..... particularly if the line is leaky. Please go re-read my comments.
     
  38. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    Really the whole team (running game and defense) will have to come to play, and should come to play, as when any starting QB is hurt. The whole team needs to rally around the backup QB and put the responsibility on themselves for winning the game, and play effectively in that manner, which then lets the backup QB have the kind of game manager role you're talking about.
     
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  39. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    While I wish for the defense to be playing shutout ball for all three games - I'm more worried about the NE matchup.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
  40. Sloopy

    Sloopy Member

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    And you should be. In the Dolphins' eight wins this season, their QB rating differential has averaged +30. In their five losses it's averaged -35.

    Obviously Tom Brady versus Matt Moore doesn't put the Dolphins in an advantageous position in that regard, nor does the Dolphins' pass defense inspire any legitimate belief that Brady can be limited to an uncharacteristically poor game by the Dolphins.
     

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