Win correlation numbers for 2009

I cut and pasted to avoid the "posting the whole article" thing.

Offense
Points scored .88
Team passer rating .81
Total yards gained per play .81
Yards gained per pass play .80
Total yards gained .77
1st downs .70
Turnover ratio .69
Pass yards gained .68
3rd down conversion % .64
QB hits allowed (.53)
Sacks allowed (.53)
Time of possession .46
4th down conversion % .25*
Pass attempts .14*
Run attempts .12*
Yards gained per rush play .09*
Offensive penalty yards .04*
Run yards gained .04*
Pass/run ratio .02*

Defense
Points allowed (.68)
Run yards allowed (.58)
Passing yards allowed per pass play (.57)
Total yards allowed (.56)
Total yards allowed per play (.54)
Opponent's passer rating (.47)
1st downs allowed (.45)
Sacks made .41
Run yards allowed per play (.33)
4th down conversions allowed (.30)
Passing yards allowed (.24)
3rd down conversion % allowed (.23)*
Defensive penalty yards .14*

Special Teams
Average kickoff (kicking team) .32
Average net punt yards (kicking team) .27*
Average kickoff return yards allowed .15*
Total penalty yards committed .11*
Average kickoff return yards gained .05*
Field goal % .03*

* not statistically significant at 90% confidence

Points scored is the best predictor of a team's win-loss record. That's hardly surprising, since it's almost like saying a team's number of wins is the best indication of its success. But when considered along with other statistics, it does indicate how good offense (and passing, specifically) has come to supercede in importance good defense in posting a winning record.

Most teams win with their passing games. Of the top ten rushing teams, only four are in the playoffs. And the two odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl, San Diego and Indianapolis, are #31 and #32, respectively. In contrast, eight of the top ten offenses in terms of total passing yards made the post-season, and only one playoff team, the improbable Jets, can't move the ball through the air.

Although special teams are often accorded one-third of a team's total equation by media figures and putative insiders, the layman's tendency to deemphasize them in favor of offense and defense looks pretty reasonable. It is nearly impossible to predict a team's level of success by looking only at its special teams statistics.

Turnovers are huge. Penalties are not. Fourth down attempts are too infrequent to be of great consequence in aggregate, but the ability to convert on third down is important.

http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2010/0...and-stats.html
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I posted this b/c people have different ideas about what actually wins in this league. Most of these numbers have been consistent for several years now although I believe the correlation for the passing stats has moved up a bit over the last 5 years (from high 70s to the low 80s).

 

That's clearly inaccurate.