With the #12 pick in the 2013 draft the Miamai Dolphins select....

I don't know if I see how Manti Te'o is criticized for his run defense against Alabama's stellar offensive line on the one hand, and then in the next sentence Alec Ogletree is espoused as a top linebacker. There's a lot of film out there of Ogletree not just being mediocre against the run, but flatly atrocious. I'm not saying he's a bad football player or prospect but to start getting all down on Manti Te'o based on what happened last night and then start talking about Alec Ogletree above him? Really confusing.

 

In my gut, I suspect we take a Tackle.

Just think Ireland is that risk averse coupled with the failed "winning starts up front" philosophy.

 

I certainly never criticized Te'o's evening or claimed Ogletree was a good run defender. I recognize he was recently a safety and run defense is not his strong suit. I wouldn't even take Ogletree before Te'o if I were going to pick one, I just thought Ogletree made more "splash" plays in the games I saw (admittedly only saw 3 of each of Te'o and Ogletree, I saw every Minter game but 1).

 

I think this notion that you can win with bad fronts is ridiculous

Unless you have manning Brady Rodgers or brees. You need good fronts

Just look at the teams in the playoffs and look at those out

 

Resource allocation, a 3rd rd pick can easily suffice, instead knowing Ireland he'll use the #12.

 

I don't see any reason to believe that you understand how Ireland thinks.

 

Thanks for sharing.

I've watched his moves closely for 5 yrs now, listened to every interview and read every article I could find.

But nah, thanks for telling me what my conclusions should be from all of that.

 

The reality is we could be relatively screwed at this #12 overall pick because of the lack of a strong QBs class.

There's a distinct possibility that not even a single quarterback is taken above Miami's pick in the Draft. I really don't see the NFL forcing the issue on Mike Glennon or Geno Smith. I think the most likely guy to sneak in there is still Matt Barkley, because coaches are going to appreciate his game, IMO.

So I'm just going to start naming some names at the top of the draft and include guys that are possibilities for Miami at #12.

OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
DE Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
DE Dion Jordan, Oregon
DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State

The reality is that 11 of the 12 above could be gone by the time Miami picks. What happens in that case? Which guy makes it to our pick? Is he desirable?

 

I have.

 

He's going to trade down IMO. Value is scattered.

 

You keep making statements about his conservativeness when I see trade ups and and big FA signings that have occurred under his direction. I think many of the more conservative picks were at the direction of Parcells. For example, I heard back before that first draft that Ireland preferred Ryan, but that Parcells preferred Long. That is completely at odds with your conclusions. Even the trade back for Odrick and Misi was pushed for by Parcells b/c he wanted to recoup the pick from the Marshall trade (an aggressive trade that reportedly Ireland pushed for that Parcells reluctantly allowed). I don't know what Ireland would have done on his own, but I'm also not pretending that I do. Reality is that I see a mix of aggressive and conservative moves from Ireland over the years that make blanket statements that he's risk averse unsupported.

 

With Reid in KC, Smith would make some sense for them.

NFL is so Qb hungry, someone will reach, but at #12 it does us no good.

 

This is one of those years where I would endorse trading down if possible. I know it's always unlikely, but IMO the value at the top relative to our needs makes that the best move. It would probably be unpopular but if somebody offered us a 2nd this year and first next year for our 12th pick, I'd be inclined to take it (depending on the team of course).

 

I'd like to see a trade down for picks next yr, we have so many draft choices as it is adding more this year seems like over kill.

 

I'd rather trade down to 20-30 and pick up a second than pick at #12- at least I'm guessing that now, you never know who is gonna slip. They should call this the the Noah's Ark draft- we need two of everything. That's a slight exaggeration granted, but WR, DE, OLB, DB, OL, TE- we need plenty.

And as to Matt Barkley- although I'm not a fan, if he makes it to #12 I would think that some team- including the Cowboys after Romo folded late again, the Chiefs and Jags might be willing to part with a 2nd rd pick to get him. He had a rough year, USC had a rough year, but my guess is that he'll be taken more in the Jake Locker/Christian Ponder range than a free fall to the late 1st or early 2nd rd. I'm not buying into Geno Smith, I do like Tyler Wilson but imo Barkley has to be the most appealing QB in a weak class. That could be good for us.

 

Maybe the Jags will be stupid enough to trade their 2nd round pick and first round pick next year for Matt Barkley.

 

It'll be tempting. I suppose I can look on the bright side. Ex-QB there are probably a good 12 names above, subbing in Alex Okafor in place of Zeke Ansah, that I feel relatively good about, though I need to do more work on Damontre Moore and Johnthan Banks. So in that way there's guaranteed to be one available.

But how much better is the last amongth them, the one that will be available when we pick, compared with the next grouping of guys I like in Zeke Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Xavier Rhodes, Arthur Jones, Khaseem Green, Tyler Eifert, Lane Johnson, Taylor Lewan, Chance Warmack, Jonathan Cooper, Stedman Bailey, Keenan Allen, Giovanni Bernard, Cornelius Carridine, Terrance Williams, Matt Elam and Phillip Thomas?

 

That list of players is why I think Ireland will want to trade back, even if he doesn't get great compensation. Thing is though, most teams would only want to trade up if a QB, DE, or CB that they want is there; then Ireland will have to decide to trade back or take whoever that has fallen into their laps that other teams are trying to trade up for.

 

Didn't Ogletree get raped a handful of times by Bama's blockers? That's probably a common theme by every linebacker who squared off against Bama this year if I had to guess.

 

I think Keenan Allen needs to be on the list as well, for two reasons. One, he's such a good fit for the offense in many ways. He may not be explosive enough, though I think he is pretty dang explosive with his quickness, but he's a fit. Second, he's in the area that is scouted by super scout Adam Engroff. If Engroff gives a great eval of him, Jeff will likely consider him.

 

Offensive or Defensive?

 

Banks and Ansah will be there. Maybe Richardson too.

But NONE of those guys offers more value at #12 than taking someone at 20-somthing by trading down and grabbing an additional second round pick.

I have hated Ireland moving down, but there just isn't good value at #12.

Because Ireland must be aware that he is in a 'prove it' year, to some degree (and a contract year too) I think he prioritizes players who will produce for him THIS YEAR... in which case it makes far more sense to trade that #12 pick for a current NFL starter than to take an overvalued player or trade down.

 

There is simply no self-interest benefit to Ireland in trading away a chance to get a player to help the team win more now, in return for future picks for the new GM to enjoy if Ireland is fired for a poor season.

 

But the thruth is, the guys still available in the 20's will not be significantly worse than the guy who is there at #12. In fact, he may be better because evals are so unsure this year.

It's a horrible year to pick around 12, unless a great prospect falls.

With our luck, its Star and we end up with ANOTHER DT... maybe he can take Wake's spot to form the best Defensive-Tackles-PLaying-As-Ends Tandem in the NFL along with Odrick.

 

It's a poor sign that there is NO one to get excited enough about as a lock at #12, value wise.

We must depend on someone to fall.... but certainly Jeff Ireland will already have a deal in place to trade that pick if he doesn't love what's on the board.

Ireland needs to win in 2013 to stay employed.

 

im excited as hell to get a Dion Jordan.

 

To replace Odrick? And how does that affect our run defense?

He's dynamic with great upside, but he's best off developing as just a nickel rusher for now.

I don't want our 12th overall pick to be rotational.

 

Which brings me to my question. What player if any, would you consider moving up, for if they fall within striking distance?

 

I don't put a guy in the list just because he's in Engroff's territory. Engroff could hate the guy for all we know. And I think there's some stuff under the surface about his attitude that isn't well out in the media yet, which your super scout will doubtless be aware of. For instance, the fact that he handcuffed his sh-tty brother to his own recruiting status and wouldn't go there or be happy unless his brother was the QB.

I think to get this high in the eval as a wide receiver you have to show more explosive elements in your game than Keenan Allen has shown, because the position carries with it such a high bust potential. And it does stick in the back of my mind that if Allen had gone to the SEC he'd be a safety right now. I didn't have Allen as legitimate this high even before I saw more games of Patterson's.

It's downright weird to see you talking up a receiver for a top 12 pick. You sure you're feeling OK?

 

The Bjoern Identity....

I thought that was a nice play on words. Anyways, interesting take on Bjoern Werner and highlight reel.
Highlight reels are great when accompanied by German Metal imo.

http://www.thephinsider.com/2013/1/8/3849532/the-bjoern-identity




As an aside, the song "Du Hust" in the back ground, looks like it's sang by a group that should have been named Sprockets.

[video=youtube;_-BZRyaFjUM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-BZRyaFjUM[/video]

 

My opinion would be Damontre Moore, Dee Milliner, Luke Joeckel, Bjoern Werner and possibly Jarvis Jones. Though any one of those guys could slip if there is some kind of quarterback scramble in the top 10. I would have no problem, unlike a lot of people here, if we took Chance Warmack with our pick either. We may even be able to move back, just a couple spots mind you, and still be able to pick him due to his position. But I think that guy is just the real deal and he has been all year.

 

IMO at #12 (or trade back) we need to draft a guy who will be a core player for the next 10 years, a true piece of the puzzle, not a guy we might balk on re-signing once his rookie contract is up.
IMO Ansah & Richardson are two players who fit that mold.
B/c of his rare physicality at the cornerback position and potential to play safety, Xavier Rhodes might fit the bill.
Ogletree could develop into that type of linebacker.
Jon Cooper fits that mold at guard IMO.
Eric Fisher at LT but w/o having to pay Jake Long type money.
Kenny Vaccaro could form a formidable safety tandem with Reshad Jones that you wouldn't want to break up.
Tannehill could use an unchanging WR-TE pair for the next 10 years that he can develop tremendous chemistry and trust with, so in that regard I'd have to put Tyler Eifert on this list, so he'd make sense in a trade back. There are some nice tight end options in FA but I don't see them necessarily being the type of player we'd want to keep around for more than one contract, whereas if you draft Eifert I think you keep him till he retires.

 

Aside from the roll-of-the-dice argument, I don't think this makes sense. A higher pick is generally better.

 

Won't happen though, IMO.

 

Anyone wonder about the possibility of cutting Karlos Dansby, moving Koa Misi to middle linebacker, and drafting Dion Jordan to play Misi's current spot?

That would be the setup that Todd's had kind of a hard-on for, for a while...a SAM backer that moves down to RE on pass downs to rush the passer.

The caveat would be I don't know you want to keep Koa Misi on the field in passing situations. But I suppose you could run him off the field and run on a coverage specialist like Jake Knott. Or maybe you're able to get hold of Arthur Brown or Khaseem Green in the 2nd round.

 

Personally, I'd rather sure up the strong side with Ansah (letting Odrick move inside) than draft a weak side end <Dion Jordan> considering we already have a pretty good one in Wake. Only if Ansah is gone is when I'd entertain a nickel pass rusher to groom as Wake's heir.

To be honest I wouldn't complain if we took two ends, Ansah in the first and then Carradine with 2b or 3a, as he represents a ton of value for those draft slots IMO.

 

FWIW , Jesse Palmer was talking about Manti a month or so ago on TSN ( Canadian Sports Channel ) , not sure how you regard him or others do ( Palmer ) I happen to like him a lot. Smart guy overall , comes from a football family , dad was very involved , anyway he mentioned Te'o as having a great year , big plays etc but that when you really looked at his season he made a lot of mistakes. He may drop by the time draft time rolls around.

 

Who do you think is more fluid, Misi or Vernon? I know I've said it already, but the way Olivier chased down CJ Spiller was quite impressive.

Actually, we might not have to cut anyone at first, no? I mean, I don't think we'd want Jordan starting as a rookie, but would rather ease him into the position, letting him get bigger & stronger first while initially allowing him to wreak havoc as a situational pass rusher. Misi is a FA in 2014, so he could either start at SAM or spend the year at ILB to see if he displays enough potential at the position to warrant re-signing. If he does then we re-sign him and choose between Dansby or Burnett to play Will in 2014 and cut the odd man out. At least that way the defense wouldn't have to take a step back next year. If Misi moves to backup ILB next year, Vernon could play SAM in base with Jordan subbing in during nickel. Or, perhaps we leave Misi at SAM and use the season to develop Vernon as an ILB if he's not too far behind the curve. Either way, Misi is a FA after next year, so the worst case scenario from 2014 and on would be letting Koa Walk and subsequently having solid depth at SAM and weakside end to keep a fresh rotation among Jordan, Vernon, and Wake. Unless I'm missing something.

 

I think we have to draft a WR in the first regardless of how free agency goes, I really want Jennings and Keenan. We have plenty of picks to try and fill the rest of our holes later in the draft.


Sent from the depths of hell
using Tapatalk.

 

I agree that he's not explosive enough to consider at #12. Patterson's the only WR I might consider that early, but he's not my first choice just b/c there are several WRs I like in this draft that will be available later (Hopkins and Bailey, for example). I'd prefer a guy like Jordan at #12. I don't have a problem with him being a situational pass rusher at first. And I don't think this staff or Ireland would have a problem using Misi as a two-down LB or that it means they're giving up on Vernon. I think this off-season is all about adding play makers. That means guys that score on O and guys that cause TOs on D. My guess is that will mean a focus on WR/TE
and pass rusher/secondary.