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Words from John Gruden: rushing offenses= thing of the past

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, Nov 16, 2009.

  1. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    The top 4 rushing teams in the NFL have a combined record of 15-21. I brought this up in the club level, but teams win now by being able to score a lot of points early and then milking the clock in the 2nd half. It's all about explosiveness as Gruden wisely puts it.

    "The days of the long 80 yard time consuming drives have become old school." They put too much pressure on an offense to execute at such a high level for 60 minutes in a league where the worst team has a shot on any given Sunday.

    I've noticed all year in the NFL that the teams who come out scoring points early are the ones who usually win games as they force their opponents into playing mistake free football.... in turn taking them out of their long prepared game plan and into playing catch up. Thus making your opponent more predictable, allowing your defense the ability to create big plays..... hence pushing games further out of reach. Not to mention an explosive offense with a lead can still put up points while maintaining a 2nd half ball-controlled lead because they have the fire power to take it to the house on any given high percentage play.

    The cat is already out of the bag regarding our need for playmakers, but it could always use more fuel for the fire. This conservative garbage will not cut it in this day and age. Time to take the training wheels off this offense and let Henne pedal a big boy bike. I can't wait to see how we address these needs in the offseason.:up:
     
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  2. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    Very true. Watching the Dolphins offense is like watching an egg toss competition. When the pace is slow and the game is close, everything is fine. But turn up the intensity and urgency, and one mistake will ruin the game.
     
  3. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    :lol: Awesome analogy Gish.

    We do seem to have a lot of egg on our face this year. :shifty:
     
  4. itsnotgonnabealright

    itsnotgonnabealright New Member

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    Rush heavy offenses are no more or less effective than pass heavy offenses (see: 2008 New Orleans Saints finishing last in NFC south). The more intelligent comment would have been "The days of having a dominate one-dimensional team are long gone".
     
  5. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    but we're in 2009. ;)

    Umm... There are so many words one squeeze into a title. If you'd like to rewrite the thread, then feel free to do so. LOL. Just put anything you decide to keep into quotation marks to avoid any plaigarism issues. :lol:

    By the way- for most of us it's a given that when you state a team is a rushing team, it means they are that first and foremost which detracts from the element of putting up points quickly.
     
  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Why do phinfans suppose Ted Ginn is still seeing playing time other than he offers the chance to score quickly?
     
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  7. JimToss

    JimToss Thank You Chad Pennington

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    The problem with a ball control smashmouth offense, is that you need a lock down defense to compliment it.

    Unless of course your Chris Johnson and run for 40 yards a play.
     
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  8. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He's right really. If you're going to be run heavy, the pressure to execute on every play is extremely high. That combined with how the rules in the league now favor receivers as opposed to DB's, its no wonder that those teams with highly successful passing offenses are the ones feared most in the league, and the ones with the most success.
     
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  9. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I understand where you're coming from Jim, but unfortunately there is no such thing as a lock down defense anymore.... especially with all the rule changes like Brandon pointed out. Indy had the #1 scoring D and NE lit it up. Pitt and Philly were 2/3 of the toughest defenses last year but they couldn't contain Zona. The best 3 teams this year can score at will, which allows their defenses to play better than they really are: Indy, NO, Minne.

    However, when other teams like NE come out striking first, it completely turns the tide on them..... and if Indy didn't have Manning, there's no way they recover.

    The Giants were a good example of this pendulum swing. In the beginning of the year they came out fast and scored points early and often. Then they slowed it down with Brandon Jacobs in the second half while still posing a threat to bust big plays from Nicks & Manningham, so defenses still had to respect them. NY's opponents were forced out of their game plan and into trying to play mistake free, catch-up football, at which time the Giants unleash their talented pass rushers to take over the game. They were on fire and their defense was #1 bc they constantly kept the pressure on opposing offenses to play perfect football while disrupting their game plan. Fast forward to present: now NY's offense can't execute and their "#1" defense is having all their weaknesses exposed bc opposing offenses have a chance to stay in rythm and play "their style of football".

    Now Indy's defense is #1 and it's no mystery why...... it's because their offense is allowing it to be. It's also no wonder that NO is a league leader in forced take aways bc their offense is putting their defense in position to make big plays.

    If you look at us- when we jumped out to an early lead this year and put opposing offenses on their heels is when our defenses has appeared to play lights out. But we pose little quick strike scoring threat, so we allow opponents to mentally come back into a game after a few half time adjustments. We stop scoring bc there are only so many 10 minute 80 yard drives a team can be success in bc with each play your law of probability for successful execution decreases. A team who can score in 3 plays has a higher probability of scoring than a team who needs 12 plays. All of the above mentioned is only further evidenced by the fact that we're dead last in 4th qtr points allowed. It's not bc of our defense. It's because our offense lets opponents back in the game.... see Indy and NO games.

    I wasn't directing this post at you Jim, but rather just speaking in general. :knucks:
     
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  10. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    THIS TIME 1,000

    Also you look at the best teams... they have amazing QB's. You can throw and score 48 points per game if you have Manning, Brady, or Breeze. The problem there are very few of these guys on the face of the earth at any given time. So not every team can run the pass heavy offenses and put up points like these guys. If you don't have an elite QB then you have to run the ball.

    Chad Henne isn't that guy yet so we run the ball.

    It seems like the NFL has favored the passing game with it's rule changes. Pass interference rules are making pass defense hard and harder, and now you can hardly hit the QB. So the NFL is making this a QB's league.
     
  11. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Cam Wake would have 20 sacks already if he played for NO or Indy. LOL

    If we can assemble a threatening offense, he could very well win his 1st NFL defensive POY.... especially if we can add another talented relentless rook (Derrick Morgan is my personal fave) to groom opposite him. If we're scoring points, then Wake etc won't have to worry about dropping into coverage or stuffing the run as much bc they will be put into situations that allow them to do what they does best- chase down QBs like a lion after a gazelle, in turn allowing him to mask his weaknesses.
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
  12. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Henne has all the ability and potential to be a top NFL QB. You're missing the point completely, and if you want to argue with the likes of Gruden then feel free to. You don't have to have Brees, Manning, or Brady to be an offensive threat. You just need a quality QB with weapons who have the ability to score at any given moment. We're one of the few teams who are barren in the reliable pass catching weapon department. AGAIN, the top 4 rushing teams have a combined record of 15-21, us included in that group. Am I saying to NOT run the ball? No..... but it is ineffective running the ball against defenses who aren't afraid of a firepowerless offense. ;)
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
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  13. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    The Giants had a cream puff schedule early

    In the 5-0 win streak they played:
    Washington ( 3W-6L )
    Dallas ( 6-3, Gaints played them early when the 'boys were struggling )
    Tampa Bay ( 1 -8 )
    Kansas City ( 2 - 7 )
    Oakland Raiders. ( 2 - 7 )

    The loss streak had them playing the following:
    Saints ( 9-0 )
    Cardinals ( 6-3 )
    Eagles ( 5-4 )
    Chargers ( 6-3)

    I am sure it's more complex than the picture I am painting, but the above does have something to do with the Gaints downturn.
     
  14. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    I think the biggest argument for a quality QB with nasty WR's ( your point ) was last years superbowl. The Cardinals ( Good QB, great WR's) and the Steelers ( Good QB, Good WR's ). The Steelers are NOT a run first team anymore, and the Cards never were.

    We will see that was last years superbowl. The Giants won it with a nasty D line and Oline and making big plays out of the passing game off the run threat. So it's different every year. So I am not too hasty to pick last years SB as the standard going forward for the NFL in general.


    EDIT: I think I mistated my arguement. I guess my point is now is not the time to let Henne throw the ball 40+ times. I am against the 'taking off the riens' arguement for Henne. We don't have WR weapons. So why throw it 40+ times THIS YEAR? Next year if we get weapons then lets 'do that thing'. But THIS YEARS teams strength is the running game, so use it. Lets do what we do best.

    EDIT #2: You still need balance. Getting wins in the regular season is one thing, but I feel like you have to have some balance to win it all.

    EDIT #3: I think it's misleading to be speaking of the currently rate #1 defense. There is a difference between currently rated #1 and the best defense in the NFL. Nobody honestly thinks the Colts have the BEST defense. They may be ranked that way.. but it's not reality.
     
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  15. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    You want an offense that will work regardless of era:

    Run the Air Coryell offense. In my opinion we are almost set up perfectly to run an offense like this....

    Strong Armed QB - Check

    Strong Inside Running Game - Almost there

    A Pass Catching TE that can also block - Sperry? Fasano?

    Two Fast WR's who can adjust to the deep pass very well - We can get this in the offseason

    The air coryell is actually the perfect offense if you want to dominate in this day and age. More so than the Pats Spread Offense. I believe Ronny Brown is the perfect Coryell Back, as he is tough enough to run inside, catches well out of the backfield, and can block. The blocking part is important, and the FB is really not used in the Air Coryell. You need big athletic offensive linemen, as they need to be equally adept at pass protection and run blocking. I think our O Line is very close to being this type of offensive line.

    In my opinion....

    If you want to really take our offense to a point where we will be championship caliber, you go after Norv Turner as your OC should he become available. It remains to be seen if he will be the head coach in San Diego.

    If he isnt available, I would find an OC who can implement the Air Coryell.

    I will guarantee you, we start running the Air Coryell, we will be in the Super Bowl the next two years...
     
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  16. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I watched the Saints game. NO jumped on the Giants fast and NY's offense absolutely never had a chance to recover and were completely forced out of their game plan, thus further proving my point. Thanks.

    What do the other 3 teams (Zona, Philly, SD) have in common? Offensive playmakers! Lots of them! And better playmakers than NY, hence the teams with more playmakers won in all 4 games. More examples of offensive trumping defense. Thank you again for helping Gruden's argument even more. ;) :lol:
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
  17. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    The best three offensive teams last year (New Orleans, Denver, and Houston) didn't even make the playoffs.

    The best three defensive teams last year (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Philadelphia) were all in the playoffs.

    False prophets are everywhere in the first half of EVERY season. The Miami Dolphins were the probably the original prolific offense generated by a quarterbacks arm. The Houston Oilers offensive success ran concurrently with the Dolphins with Warren Moon under center in a run and shoot offense. The demise of each and every prolific passing offense is NO defense..........and the defensive shortcomings become all to evident when the defense is placed back on the field immediately after they just left the field. It is then that the pressure goes back on the offense to score again and again and again and again. It was never so evident than the Buffalo Bills versus the Houston Oilers in the greatest comeback in NFL history. The Bills had a good defense. The Oilers did not have a good defense. Game, match, set............
     
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  18. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    What was Gruden's argument exactly? I didn't hear the comments. All I see is one quote and you running with it.

    As to what you cited by Gruden - I would say that as long as a team had a good defense, the prolific offense has been successful since the beginning of time as it pertains to football.
     
  19. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    so then why are the top 4 rushing teams a combined 15-21 where as the top 4 passing teams.... well aren't? The same 08 NO Saints are a passing team who is now possibly the best team in the NFL. You might want to choose another example to attempt to validate your argument.
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
  20. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    How about those teams are 'bad' teams. You have to be able to score.. who is debating that? My points is you can play creampuffs and cover up a lot of weakness that better teams will exploit.

    Good teams can play defense, pass, and run the ball. That isn't rocket science. Studs (aka playmakers ) make an offense go, again not rocket science. I am missing the subtlity of your argument I suppose.
     
  21. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    I think his argument still stands. You haven't raised any counter point to it yet.

    WHY are the Saints of 09 better than the 08 Saints?
     
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  22. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    basically everything I stated in the opening threat is what Gruden said. I just didn't quote it all bc I couldn't remember word for word all that he said as he spoke in detail about the subject.

    He said this league is all about explosiveness.... having the ability to put up points quickly and then eating up the clock in the 2nd half. I didn't run with anything.... and neither will Miami without weapons to keep defenses honest. ;)

    The league's changed. The definition of prolific offense is not the same. TEs alone have completely changed that.
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
  23. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Better execution and they've gelled as an offense, and their line has matured into a fortress for Brees for the most part giving him time to throw, even against elite pass rushers from the Giants. They now have a fully tuned high octane offense that can strike anywhere on the field and at any time.... and their passing attack has opened up their ground game bc defenses have to defend against the pass first.

    Besides bringing in Sharper, their defense is basically the same as last year, only they're playing better bc the offense is putting them into position to bring pressure and make plays.
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
  24. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    You just described the dream game plan of every coach from pop warner to the NFL since the beginning of time. There is nothing "new" about it. Don't believe it? Take a look at this:

    http://www.amazon.com/Run-Shoot-Football-Now-Attack/dp/0137838794

    I just went to my bookshelf and opened it up to the copyright date to find 1965.
     
  25. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Rushing offenses are a "thing of the past" until everyone has a defense designed to stop the pass.
     
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  26. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That's why I used the Colts as a defensive example. They clearly aren't the best defense in the NFL, but best or not, they performing like they are and at the end of the day that's all that matters...... and they're statistically reducing offenses to the fewest points bc their offense puts them in position to do so, which is the example I was attempting to make.

    I agree with your other points, and I agree that NY won bc of defense, but last year and this year the balance seems shifted to the offense.

    In fact, over the history of the NFL SuperBowl where it's supposedly the #1 and #2 teams squaring off, the average score of all SB's combined is 30-15. What does this tell you? It tells me that as a whole, offense trumps defense, and teams in NFL history who can score fast and jumped out to an early lead usually won the game in a convincing manner. However, games that were close in the beginning usually came down to the wire. If defense were the majoratively dominant factor, then we would see less disparity in point differential and certainly not see the "2nd best" team each year allowing 30 points on average. My point being- firepower is king. It may change in shape or form, but it is still king.
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
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  27. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    So lets look at the stats and compare them to last year.

    Saints 2008:
    #1 total offense
    #28 in rushing
    #1 in passing

    #23rd in defense overall
    #17 against the run
    #23 against the pass

    Saints SO FAR in 2009
    #1 overall offense
    #5 rushing offense
    #4 passing offense ( they are actually behind 3 other teams in passing yards )

    #21 defense overall
    #20 defense against the run
    #19 defense against the pass


    The major difference in the stats so far is the Saints are ranked #5 running the ball this year as opposed to #28th last year. Offensive pass number are still high, their defense is still ranked middle of the road.

    So the difference in the 09 and 08 Saints .. RUNNING GAME. Interesting.
     
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  28. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    oh really? So what do we practice? And what type of draft picks & FAs have we brought in? Give me a break. Like I said. Take it up with Gruden if you're wiser than he is. It's quite obvious that not everyteam is successful in becoming an explosive offense and not every team takes the same approach. The right approach is key. I seriously think you like to debate solely for the sake of debate.

    Duh, every team's goal is to get the ball in the endzone. If you don't score you lose. :yawn: I think everyone here completely understands that. However the key is deciding an offense that gets you there, and offenses have clearly <and apparantly unknowingly to you> changed over time...... and what Gruden was alluding to is what works in the NFL today, now.... not 40 years ago as if there's one simple universal method that applies to all eternity like you nonchalantly attempt to make it seem.
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
  29. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=- Club Member

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    It's no secret that an effectively balanced offense wins games
     
  30. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    Sadly this is me :tantrum:

    Lol :lol:


    Also, assuming your SB stats are true. I think holding a good offensive team to 15 points in a game is good defense. So I would argue the opposite. Not that I care personally. I just argue for the sake of it :)
     
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  31. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Throw all the stats you want. LOL. They're not always an accurate indication of the truth. I watch the games not read the stats. NO was the #1 passing team last year bc they were trailing in a lot of games which didn't allow them to run and forced them to pass constantly to stay in it. It's no secret that 300 yard passers are more often than not on losing teams for this very reason. These people have to keep throwing through the 4th qtr and much of the time vs prevent defenses who are giving them the yards.

    Fast forward this year. If you've watched them play you'd clearly see they are not really a top 5 run team, and everyone and their mother knows NO is the most deadly passing team in the NFL despite what the "stats" show. This year, restating again, the Saints offense is scoring points quickly, coming out to an early lead, which allows them to effectively run the ball bc defenses have to respect the pass. They don't have to pass as much come 2nd half bc they already have a lead and now need to work on controlling the clock and not doing anything stupid to give up the victory. When you dont have to pass as much you have less passing yards. ;). Saints running game is NOT the reason behind their success. If their passing attack were halted in the first half, then their ground game would be shut down and Brees would have to throw for 400 yards to try and win it, reminiscent to last year. They only looked dominantly balanced on the stat sheet bc their passing game opens up their run. Make no mistake, their success is predicated on the pass.
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
  32. late again

    late again Senior Member

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    I was on the verge of posting the saints' running game #5 ranking until I saw you took care of it for me.
    IMO the Gruden statement is just an example of people manipulating stats to support some view. That's why most agree that stats do not always tell the whole story.
    Here's another piece to the puzzle: Why not look further into why the top 4 ranked running teams (this year) don't have a better record.
    1. Jets - rookie QB
    2. Titans - Over the hill Collins
    3. Panthers - Delhomme
    4. Miami - Pennington/Henne - weak arm/learning curve.
    This says to me that the top 4 teams NEED to run the ball.
    But the Saints are #5 because they CAN run it.
    That's not the same thing as the running attack being out dated.
     
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  33. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    :sidelol:

    I thought of the 15 point aspect, too.....believe me- I tried, but the 15 point differential skews the favor to the side of the offense. Too many quality teams have given up a lot of points, and it's seemed that once these teams fell behind early, it was very difficult to recover. If it were maybe 23-15 point average score, I would be more inclined to dismiss the offensive theory and say defense wins games. I used to be a defensive minded guy, so it's been hard for me to change my beliefs regarding success.

    PS: I'm a huge PITA also so no worries. :knucks:
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
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  34. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    Lol. I am far from a stats man, but if it makes you feel better to call me that then fine. :lol:
    So you are saying the defense is the difference in the 09 Saints? I thought it was all about the playmakers on O? Weird that the Saints have the same playmakers as last year and yet are winning more.

    So you need a defense, but that isn't the case right? I mean you have those superbowl stats saying offense is king.

    This is true, even statman knows this, but why are the Saints considered the best team in the NFL and not the Colts? Because the Saints have balance.. aka a running game. Again the difference in the Saints this years is the run. From #28 to #5. So they might not be #5 in reality this year. What would you guess they are? #10 in the league? So they went from #28 to #10... difference is still the running game.

    Also when Sparano was asked what the turning point in the Saints vs Phins game was he said it was in the 3rd quarter when they ( the Saints ) ran the ball down our throats. Running game the difference in the 08 and 09 Saints again.

    :hi5:
     
  35. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Valid points but top passing teams who score early still do well without a quality ground game. Indy and NE have dome it.... Zona almost beat Pitt with one of the worst ground games in the NFL, and Pitt won the SB with a mediocre rushing attack. The Ravens couldn't do it with a ground game last year when it counted, and neither could Tenn. However 8-8 SD almost did without LT healthy bc they have a quality passing attack, one that allowed water-bug Sproles to dance around the field. No way his little self does what he did if defenses didn't have to respect the pass like that. Defenses would stuff the box and Sproles would get carted off the field. LOL
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
  36. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Sorry MB. Statman came across harsh so I reworded the post. Apologies brother. :knucks:

    Edit: I almost forgot that I was in the mains with guys that aren't familiar with me and whom I'm not familiar with. LOL. I only say sarcastic stuff to be funny and challenging, never harsh. ;)
     
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  37. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    Don't worry about it. I do that too.

    I really am just arguing for the sake of arguing. It's just fun. I will stop now.

    You have some VERY valid points. And if it's one thing EVERYONE on this board agrees is the Dolphins need playmakers in the passing game. So I am 100% with you :).
     
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  38. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    There are a lot of us who argue points just to argue them until the other person can completely leave zero holes in their argument. Have you met Stitches yet? :shifty: :lol:

    Add me to the list too.... it's what makes this forum great, right. :up: What fun is it if it's not challenging. Otherwise we'd have to rename this forum to ThePhinsLindsayLohan.com.
     
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  39. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    Funny you should mention Stiches. I had a run in with him yesterday :). It was great. I love his animated gif avatar. Evertime I see it I laugh.

    Yea. I really like this forum. It has great people who can debate an issue passionately but not take it personally.
     
  40. late again

    late again Senior Member

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    I just believe that Gruden's thought was a bit tunnel visioned.
    For example; and staying close to home and heart - look at our losses against Indy and NO. We jumped on them early and often with a running offense.
    One could argue that we lost due to the very thought that Gruden is perpetuating because both teams scored quickly when it counted the most
    But it could also be argued that we lost due to inexperience with Smith/Davis and Safeties who are better suited to play the run than the pass.
    Obviously the only conclusion we can get from speculation is that we'll never know. But IMO the key stops were quite possible with a more experienced Sean Smith or Vontae Davis and a FS who can play the pass. Which to me says the game is still the same in that respect. Ultimately it all comes down to talent and skill.
     
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