There's always the compensatory draft pick we'd be awarded. I'd imagine it would be a 3rd round pick.
McShay was reporting that a couple of days ago. He stated that he thought Barr would come out after all. I saw it mentioned in the draft forum.
Players pretty rarely decide they're leaving the team that drafted them even if that team is offering a competitive contract. It usually comes down to a choice by the team to offer a competitive contract or not. In Detroit's case I think they will, and thus Cherilus will be back. But I'll accept that there's a fair chance NE decides that spending that much on a right tackle isn't the thing to do. Still, back in 2009 they gave RT Nick Kaczur a $4.0 million a year extension which is pretty close to the $5.2 million you have in mind. Not only would inflation naturally draw a 2009 contract value upward when put into 2012 terms, but Sebastian Vollmer is better than Nick Kaczur was. Yet he found one, and he's played over 700 snaps this year as a starting right tackle on a playoff unit. And it's not like he's currently drawing (or has ever drawn) the kinds of negative PFF grades you see from the likes of Barry Richardson or Marc Colombo. Or Jon Martin. He pretty consistently gets positive grades from PFF actually and this year they have him as the Colts' 3rd best OL behind Anthony Castonzo and A.Q. Shipley. When the Dolphins signed Artis Hicks, he was a 34 year old who had trouble staying healthy, only played 200 snaps the year before at right tackle, where he played atrociously. The Dolphins gave him $2.0 million for 2012, with another $0.5 million in incentives. I don't think a 28 year old Winston Justice is only going to get $1.2 million. That very well may be, but I still don't think $2.0 million and $1.2 million is realistic for either player. They're both playing pretty well. Even if there aren't teams climbing all over them, they'll still get more than that. You're figuring about $3 million for both players whereas you should be closer to $3 million EACH. That could be, but Starks is nonetheless well respected in the league (see Marvin Lewis' comments prior to our game), and in particular I don't see Randy settling for less money than Paul Soliai who plays 25% fewer downs than he does. I think $6 million is closer to the mark but in actuality I think it will take closer to $7 million to keep him in in a Miami uniform, and you should account yourself fairly lucky if that's all. I just wonder if you've actually looked up the numbers as far as what it's costing to sign corners these days. Not meaning any offense. Cortland Finnegan and Brandon Carr make $10.0 million a year. Johnathan Joseph makes $9.8 million a year. Dunta Robinson makes $9.5 million a year. DeAngelo Hall makes $9.2 million a year. Lardarius Webb makes $8.8 million a year. Leon Hall makes $8.4 million a year. Antonio Cromartie makes $8.0 million a year. Eric Wright makes $7.6 million per year. Be 100% honest, is Sean Smith worse than all of them? Worse than Antonio Cromartie was when he signed his contract, which was pre-2012? Worse than DeAngelo Hall? Worse than Leon Hall? Worse than Eric Wright? Hell, Richard Marshall and Dimitri Patterson were specifically signed as NICKEL corners, and they both got more money than you're slating for Sean Smith. At this rate I think quite a few people are going to have sticker shock when the Dolphins do re-sign Sean Smith to a contract. The word "thunder" doesn't really describe Daniel Thomas. I think the consistent overrating of Daniel Thomas is a testament to the standard of talent Miami fans have been forced to acclimate to over the years. A career 3.5 yards per carry average with a fumble every 50 carries isn't "thunder". Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are much closer to "lightning and fart noises" than "lightning and thunder". If he's the second best guard in the draft why's he going in the bottom of the 3rd round? I'm confused. Sam Montgomery tore his ACL in 2010. It's been two full years since then. In fact everyone says about an ACL tear that the player comes back in the second season after the tear. This year, 2012, is that year. Regardless, he just doesn't impress me. Doesn't get off the ball, doesn't use his hands well, get off blocks efficiently or show good balance. Though I'm quite positive Cyrus Kouandjio is a very good, maybe even elite tackle prospect down the road, he's just a sophomore and he handled Sam Montgomery this year easily. The problem is, so too did the guards when Sam faced them, and also Michael Williams the tight end handled Montgomery in that game as well. I mean, maybe Kouandjio is the next Willie Roaf and Michael Williams is the next Jason Peters, but still. Was a simple typo, my apologies. I realized it was $4.6 million not $5.6 million. Either way I don't think it's a wise move. I didn't say it was unrealistic, I said it was a move I don't deem all that wise. Too much of the same thing between Dustin Keller and Charles Clay. Also as Alen likes to say, Keller too often plays "soft". I think it's important to operate within a realistic context though. Everyone's philosophy is to maximize talent. I mean, given no realistic constraints you could put together a list of pro bowlers and say there you go we have a championship team. I understand the philosophy argument but I think the details are pretty important because the league is about playmakers not necessarily philosophies. You can't just claim that the spirit behind this list of players makes it a championship caliber team. If one option doesn't end up realistic and so you plug in another option which exhibits the same philosophy, that can be the difference between championship and not even making the playoffs.
sorry for the late response.. Starks and McD... I haven't looked at the UFA list for Dtacks... but yeah I'm moving ODrick inside next to Soliai. Randall is there at Dtack too and should benefit from a year in the offseason program. I'm probably letting #94 and #78 walk and adding a player thru free agency. Depth could be a concern. But it's always a concern.
Re-Sign: Sean Smith $7/YR Brian Hartline $7/YR Pat Devlin $950/YR Sign: Greg Jennings $8/YR Evan Dietrich-Smith $2.5/YR Cut: Richie Incognito Trade: Davone Bess for Jermichael Finley Daniel Thomas for Jermichael Finley Draft: 1. Dion Jordan 2a. Stedman Bailey 2b. Oday Aboushi 3A. Andre Ellington 3B. Omeregie Uzzi 4. Darius Slay 5. Tanner Hawkinson 6. Baker Steinkuhler 7a. Jordan Rodgers 7b. Kenny Tate QB-Ryan Tannehill/Pat Devlin/Jordan Rodgers RB-Lamar Miller/Andre Ellington/Jonas Grey/Marcus Thigpen FB-Jovorskie Lane WR-Greg Jennings/Brian Hartline/Stedman Bailey/Rishard Matthews/Jeff Fuller TE-Jermichael Finley/Charles Clay/Michael Egnew LT-Johnathan Martin/Will Yeatman LG-Evan Dietrich-Smith C-Mike Pouncey/Josh Samuda RG-Omeregie Uzzi/John Jerry RT-Oday Aboushi/Tanner Hawkinson DE-Cam Wake/Dion Jordan/Olivier Vernon/Derrick Shelby DT-Paul Soliai/Jared Odrick/Kheeston Randall/Baker Steinkuhler OLB-Koa Misi/Kevin Barnett/Jason Trusnik/Josh Kaddu MLB-Karlos Dansby/Austin Spitler CB-Sean Smith/Darius Slay/Dmitri Patterson/Nolan Carroll/RJ Stanford FS-Richard Marshall/Jimmy Wilson SS-Reshad Jones/Kenny Tate Try to be as realistic as I can get without knowing the future. I think it's going to be a tough year for the O-line, but there are some peices that fit the scheme better. I know it will be tough pill to swallow both Richard Marshall's and Dmitri Patterson's contract but I can see them being a little stuborn on keeping Marshall. Not sure if that's how a trade for Jermichael would go down but I figured they could use a body at RB and Davone Bess would be a nice way to replace Jennings and Driver. I'm not sure if I have any money left, but if I was able to pick up 1 more free agent I'd might try to pick up a veteran starting tackle or cornerback or perhaps try to re-sign Randy Starks.
God help me if they sign Brian Hartline to a $7 million a year contract. On the other hand, kudos for being the first person to really come up with a pretty realistic price tag on Sean Smith. Not to mention the Davone Bess/Daniel Thomas for Jermichael Finley trade seems like a realistic price tag. It's amazing to me to think about how far the pendulum has swung on Brian Hartline. This guy was largely considered a cut candidate because of his mysterious "calf strain" during camp. I had to put together videos and whatnot to show people this guy is pretty good, he can play, he gets open and he works the sidelines well. Now the pendulum has swung violently in the other direction and I'm seeing people claim he's a top notch #2 and I see contract estimates at $6 or $7 million a year. He's not worth that to me. I've espoused many times the idea that Hartline and Bess shouldn't be on the same roster but if it comes down to $7 million a year for Hartline I'd rather just keep Bess.
I agree, he should have been re-signed last off-season for about the same as Bess, but...... Anyways, it seems as though he has all the leverage, until there is someone better on the roster.
Heh, and kick yet another hole in the dam? Would you really be comfortable going into 2013 with DBess and Matthews as our Wr's and leave the rest to draft choices and guys like Binns?
ALIAS , A VOICE OF REASON YOUR ARE HIRED. IF i 'M GM I would hire Wanny to be a linebacker expert with his son Eddie Moore as linebacker coach. seriously if i am gm i would release every wr and tightend and bring in two vet wr's and two vet cornnerbacks then i would draft two olinemen , two de, two safeties because I like doing things in two's .
And if Jeff Ireland is the GM (which it looks like he will be, BTW, whatever happened to the truck driving the Fire Ireland banner last week?)... anyway, if he's the GM, there is no way in hell he lets Long walk. Young starting left tackles just don't hit free agency. It's too bad he's not a restricted free agent and we could tender him at a different level. Unfortunately, the previous CBA makes his cap # obscene. And hopefully he's not playing on that tag this year. Hopefully Ireland/Aponte can get him signed to a short term deal, similar to Soliai, 2 years $14m with perhaps some incentives in there if he makes it back to the Pro Bowl. But I also think a team like the Bears would be very interested at the right price and let them rework his contract. We've had a lot of trade history with them over the years. Also, nice effort Boik on the full roster breakdown.
I don't even see it being about leverage. The Dolphins have Davone Bess already, and there are going to be guys like Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings and Mike Wallace available via free agency. You have the Dolphins signing Greg Jennings for only $1 million more per year than Brian Hartline gets from us. That doesn't seem wrong to you? From 2008-2011, Greg Jennings had 4619 yards and 34 TDs. Has this year been a down year due to injury? Yeah. But his injury is essentially a hernia, not some degenerative knee condition. The hernia will heal given time the only problem was that he did it in Week 1 and had no time to heal it because you use that muscle in every day life. He's 29 years old, not 39 years old. Brian Hartline is only 3 years younger, has legs like spaghetti (and don't blame the appendix issues because he had those thin legs since before the appendix), and his "breakthrough" year involved 1 touchdown. And hell, essentially just one game. Without that game we're talking 57 catches for 761 yards and 0 TDs. I like the guy as a contributor, I really do. But you should have two guys better than him on your depth chart. And if we're looking at a situation where Greg Jennings is only $1 million a year more expensive than Brian Hartline then you ditch Hartline and grab Jennings and account yourself lucky you were able to execute such a ridiculous swap at essentially the same price.
1. Depends on the draft picks 2. No, and that's why I've been a vocal proponent of signing Greg Jennings for a long time
I've always thought that Jeff Ireland would never part ways with Jake Long. Now I wonder if doing so would be in Jeff Ireland's mind a way to separate himself even further from everything that happened pre-2010 which he conveniently blames on Bill Parcells.
1. insanity, basically a rebuilt offense with a 2nd yr Qb that is not setting Tannehill up to succeed. 2. We've both been around long enough to know FA is a crap shoot, you cannot count on signing anyone, like Boom's mythical trade back, "sign so and so" rarely happens.
I agree Long stays. This is Ireland's top prize from all his drafts and he is coming into his prime. If Ireland stays, chances are excellent that Jake Long also stays. It's almost unheard of for a young Pro Bowl caliber left tackle to hit the market, and that it is being discussed like a done deal so casually is surprising to me. The only IF here is whether he is suited for a West Coast blocking scheme, and I'll let some of the more knowledgeable members weigh in on that. I think he is nimble enough. In fact, I think it is painful for Ireland to cut bait on his own draft picks. You could sense it when he sent Clyde Gates packing. I'd expect him to opt to resign his own (also younger) picks than free agent pickups. So that means we keep Long, Hartline, Smith, Clemens, etc. and lose Starks, Bush, and so on. I could see Dansby moved for pick compensation given Misi's performance inside, and that need addressed somewhere in the draft. That makes sense.
Objectively speaking, we have what 7 players in line to rep the Dolphins at the pro bowl, Ireland acquired all of them save for Fields. We have not had that since the Wanny Era.
I see what you're saying but think there are exceptions to everything. I mean we brought in Wake prior to 2010... some good moves happened prior to 2010. I don't think he's going to have this notion that he should separate himself from what happened prior to that time frame. He can't rewrite history. You take the good with the bad and move on.
Soliai was not an Ireland guy as well, but they (Sparano/Ferguson/Rogers) turned him into a pro bowler, he was in danger of being cut in 2010. Bush Hartline Pouncey Incognito Soliai Fields Wake Been a loong time since that happened.
Interestingly enough, the story about Wake centers on Ireland not Parcells. Basically they were negotiating and the Colts called and Ireland thought they were gaming him, things got smoothed over and he wound up signing Ireland's offer of a 1 millie bonus and 3 yrs Toss in Marcus Thigpen and Ireland has been quietly effective over the last 2 yrs.
Nope, I would guess Hartline, Bush, and Incognito are 3rd alternatives. The others I'm not sure about. But yeah, get excited
Brian Hartline is not easy to replace. Not in the sense he's unfathomably talented, it's just that you're highly unlikely to find a guy who fits the offense and produces in it like he does without luck. The guy runs a good section of Mike Sherman's route tree exceedingly well, is productive on the target range a starting wide receiver is likely to get in this offense, isn't an idiot, etc. I think it's pretty unlikely they let Hartline walk, or that he prices himself out of what they're willing to pay for him. He's a guy with a single particularly good season who is likely going to be on the market for most teams as a really good #2 option.
What makes him any more attractive on the market (from a $$$ standpoint) than Mario Manningham was when he got a 2 year, $7.4 million contract from the San Francisco 49ers? I think he should expect no more than that.
I think Mario Manningham is a pretty instructive example. From 2009 to 2011 (the three years leading into his free agency), Manningham had 169 catches for 2,481 yards and 21 TDs on 276 attempts and 1402 pass snaps. From 2010 to 2012 (the three years leading into his free agency), Hartline had 147 catches for 2,178 yards and 3 TDs on 245 attempts and 1371 pass snaps. Mario Manningham: 14.7 YPC, 9.0 YPA, 7.6% TDPA, 1.77 YPPS Brian Hartline: 14.8 YPC, 8.9 YPA, 0.0% TDPA, 1.59 YPPS Anecdotally and statistically I find the comparison to be pretty good. Manningham was a 3rd round pick where Hartline was a high 4th round pick. Though he has questionable deep speed, Manningham had been a big play guy in New York, which showed in his high yards per catch average. The same is true of Brian Hartline. At various points in his New York career, Manningham had to deal with playing 2nd or 3rd fiddle to the likes of Hakeem Nicks the 1st round pick, a HEALTHY Steve Smith, and Victor Cruz. Brian Hartline at various points has had to deal with the presence of Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess. Now of course the immediate thing everyone will raise is that while Hartline had Chad Henne, Matt Moore and a rookie Ryan Tannehill throwing the football to him, Mario Manningham had Eli Manning. That is an excellent point to raise. But just as excellent a point to raise is the fact that qualitatively especially in the glaring area of touchdown receptions, Mario Manningham's production and accomplishments were more purely impressive than Hartline's have been. I think those factors rather cancel one another out. In short I believe when the Dolphins and the agent for Brian Hartline reach the negotiations table, the Dolphins are going to model their offers off what Mario Manningham got in San Francisco. And we know how Jeff Ireland is about sticking to his valuations.
The only thing I could think of is the timing. If Manningham had reached free agency off of his best year he'd have commanded more money.
That may factor into it, but then his 2011 season was better than his 2009 and 2008 seasons, and he capped off the 2011 season by being the hero in the Super Bowl. His 2010 season wasn't even really THAT much better than his 2011 season...944 yards and 9 TDs versus 712 yards and 7 TDs. Not really a stark difference.
Interesting to note that the Giants chose not to resign him at what is perceived to be a fairly affordable price. Sure they had Nicks/Cruz etc. But I always thought he had good seasons with them and helped them win super bowls.
Different situations, Manningham initially priced himself out of the market, when the music began slowing down he jumped on the 49ers offer as it was the best he could do.
