You are the GM

I've spent a lot of time nit picking various estimates and talking about what is realistic and what is not.

Here is what I consider to be realistic, amongst our own free agents.

1. OT Jake Long - $11.0 million per year
Comment: This is essentially what he was already making as the #1 overall pick. This seems like a happy medium place for Jake and for the Dolphins to gravitate toward on the numbers because it's obviously not what Joe Thomas gets, and the Dolphins will insist that if he wants what Joe Thomas gets he should more consistently play like Joe Thomas...and at the same time, it's not a pay cut. It's a number that won't make either side totally happy which is generally what you get out of a good price negotiation.

2. CB Sean Smith - $7.5 million per year
Comment: People are being a little unrealistic about Smith's price tag. I think generally speaking, and I mean no offense to anyone out there, most people around here just haven't done a whole lot of looking into what various corners are costing. When I see Sean Smith valued at $5.0 million a year which is pretty much exactly what Richard Marshall and Dimitri Patterson got as NICKEL corners (actually slightly less), this is how I come to the conclusion that there are a lot of people kind of guestimating the number based on not much. The player I chose to base my estimate off is Eric Wright of the Buccaneers, who signed a 5 year, $37.5 million contract. Quite frankly, choosing Eric Wright as a comparison may be short changing Smith because Wright had serious attitude/discipline problems and played worse than Smith in 2010 and 2011. Smith's overall level of play more closely approximates that of Antonio Cromartie's prior to signing an $8.0 million a year deal with the New York Jets this off season, however Smith does not quite intercept the ball like Cromartie (Cro had 7 in 2010 & 2011, Smith has 4 in 2011 & 2012) and so that's why I bumped him down to the level of Eric Wright.

3. DT Randy Starks - $6.0 million per year
Comment: In this case I'm modeling the contract off a number of contracts. Chris Canty at 27 years old signed a 6 year, $42 million deal way back in 2009. Kyle Williams signed a 6 year, $33.6 million deal in 2011 when he was about the same age as Randy Starks is right now. I'm more tempted to give Randy Kyle Williams' deal but there's a wrinkle, as there always is with these negotiations. Paul Soliai signed a deal worth $6.0 million per year this off season. He plays 25% fewer downs than Randy Starks. Given that Cullen Jenkins also has a 5 year, $30 million deal with the Eagles which he signed at 30 years old...I think there's a backbone of support at the $6.0 million mark and in actuality Randy will want a little bit more while the Dolphins will want a little less.

4. RB Reggie Bush - $4.5 million per year
Comment: The most relevant contract to Reggie Bush's negotiation will actually be Reggie's own contract which was about $5.5 million per year. Reggie will be reluctant to take a pay cut when the fact of the matter is he proved more in Miami than he did in New Orleans. However, the Dolphins will have a strong argument to make. In addition to pointing out that they want Reggie to take a smaller role than he did in 2011 and 2012, they can point to Ahmad Bradshaw's deal in New York at $4.5 million per year and say this is the role we envision for you as we get other players involved in the ground game. It's also the money Darren Sproles got in New Orleans. The Dolphins won't be able to justify much lower than this because then you're in Michael Bush ($3.5 million per year) or Pierre Thomas ($2.8 million per year) territory and those guys were signed with the intention of making them backups. If Reggie really wants to be a dick he can bring up the inexplicably large contracts signed by both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in Carolina. But then Miami's natural retort would be, why do you think Marty Hurney was fired?

5. WR Brian Hartline - $4.0 million per year
Comment: This is a tough one for a number of reasons. Brian Hartline is naturally going to look toward the contract that Antonio Brown signed in Pittsburgh prior to this season. That contract totals $43.0 million over 6 years, or $7.2 million a year. This, much like the DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart contracts, seems an outlier. Brown was only off his 2nd year in the NFL and already had gotten to be an 1100 yard receiver. Additionally, the Steelers were in the midst of frustrating negotiations with Mike Wallace and used Brown's extension as a means of sending a message to Wallace. The Dolphins could counter that outlier by bringing up another outlier, as Jerome Simpson had a sudden breakout season in 2011 much as Hartline has in 2012, and Simpson only got a 1 year, $2.0 million deal from the Vikings. Are there extenuating circumstances involved there? Of course. But there are in the Antonio Brown case as well. The comparisons I like better are that of Mario Manningham, Jordy Nelson and James Jones. I explained the Manningham comparison above and how strikingly similar the two players' situations are above. Manningham got $3.8 million a year. If the Dolphins want to bolster support for their numbers they can point toward Jordy Nelson's signing a contract worth about $3.5 million per year prior to the 2011 season, and James Jones signing a contract worth about $3.1 million per year the same off season. Jones had 1326 yards (1.34 YPPS) and 13 TDs in the 2 years prior while Nelson had 1198 yards and 7 TDs over those previous 2 years, but with a sterling 2.03 yards per pass snap that promised increases in production. Over the last 2 years Hartline has 1563 yards and 2 TDs, at 1.62 yards per pass snap. Hartline's agent may agree that the contract should be more based on the extension Nelson signed prior to 2011 since Hartline also has a 1.98 yards per pass snap in his latest action, but the agent could argue that Nelson's new money in the extension was actually 3 years at $13.35 million or $4.45 million a year...if you don't count the year Nelson had remaining that he would serve out before the extension would take effect. The Dolphins could meet him in the middle from their negotiating stance ($3.1 to $3.8 mil) and Hartline's negotiations stance ($4.5 mil), and gravitate toward $4.0 million.

6. TE Anthony Fasano - $3.0 million per year
Comment: The controlling contract here is Anthony Fasano's own current contract. He is in a rare position to be almost exactly as valuable now as he was 3 years prior when he signed a deal worth $2.9 million per year. Prior to that deal Fasano had 793 yards and 9 TDs in the prior two years with the team. Right now he has 752 yards and 10 TDs over the 2011 and 2012 seasons. He's 3 years older but still only 28-29 years old, and he's probably in truth a better football player now than he was when they signed him in the off season before 2010. If Anythony Fasano wants some support for his worth he can point to the 3 year, $8.25 million contract signed by Daniel Graham in Tennessee in 2011. This was coming off a 5 year, $30 million contract Graham signed in Denver which was largely regarded as a mistake. At the time of the signing, Graham was 33 years old where Fasano only turns 29 years old this off season. Graham was arguably even more one-dimensional than Fasano. The Dolphins may actually be lucky to get him at only a $0.25 million premium to that contract, however the amount Fasano comes down versus how much the Dolphins come up would reflect the fact that Fasano is probably more interested in staying than Miami is interested in keeping him.

This is what I believe the prices will be to keep these players. It comes from a lot of research rather than just shooting from the hip. I believe all told the average life prices will sum up to about $36 million. You figure some amount of skew in the contracts' first year values but the average contract life for these guys is probably going to range between 2 and 4 years, so I wouldn't figure on too much skew (as the CBA limits it). I would think at most the average life price would be discounted 15% down to $31 million in the first year. If you (as I was) were one who believed the Dolphins would have $40 million under the salary cap then after claiming Dimitri Patterson you have to acknowledge they should have about $4.5 million less. That means re-signing everyone won't leave quite enough room for the rookies (possibly short by only about $1 million once rollover from this year is accounted for). If you believed the Dolphins would have $50 million under the salary cap then after signing everyone and accounting for rookies they should have about $9 million. That could account for Greg Jennings, but not much else.

 

Maybe we should discuss bringing in 2-3 more reasonably priced free agents rather than one Greg Jennings. That seems to be more Ireland's tendency anyway.

It's not like we are one WR away from the playoffs anyhow.

But I still like the trade Dansby, re-sign Long angle.

 

There's no incentive for Jeff Ireland to believe that he's not just one player away from the Super Bowl. He's the GM that built the team. He is incented to believe he's put together a great core of talent that is young and if they stay together they'll keep developing together, and all they really need is a piece here and there and to keep drafting well. That's what he is motivated to believe as he is the GM of the team.

 

Your numbers look pretty close to me. I think people short-change some of our players based on hope. I think our FA splash depends on Jake Long. I think we'll definitely re-sign Smith and Starks, likely Hartline, and possibly Fasano and Bush. If we bring back Long, I think that means no Greg Jennings unless his value has really sunk due to his injury.

 

In your scenario, if we let Long walk, as IMO, we should, we can keep both Starks and Bush?

Other thing is, 4 millie is DBess money, Hartline is more productive at least this year, why would he settle for that deal?

 

I think of the above, only 3 at the most re-sign.

 

Sometimes I wonder if you are Hartline and Thigpen's agent.

 

Bess made around 3 million a year.

 

Through week 14(Bess has missed the last 2) they're only about 1 catch and 147 yards apart, basically the Arizona game.

 

He signed a 4 year, 9.35M deal which was really a 3 year extension IIRC. Technically under 3M/yr so that adds to your point, really.

 

Hartline tops 1k yds and that earns him 1,000,000/16 than Bess?

What is that, about 60k more per game? I do believe he'd balk.

We'll see.

As I look at Ck's guesstimates it is fairly obvious that it would make far more sense to let Long walk, even at 11 million.

IMO, if Long wants to stay, it would be more akin to a 1 yr, 8 million "prove it" type of deal.

 

I'm one of those who pegged Smith at $5 million. Not because I think he'll actually get paid $5 million, but that's because I believe his value is at $5 million, without comparing to other inflated free agent CB contracts. Smith will absolutely get at least $6 million a year, can land $7 million fairly easily, and may even find a team or two willing to pay $8 million. But that doesn't mean his on field play is worth $7 million, just as Cromartie or Wright may not be worth their contracts.

More importantly, Jake Long at $11 million after ending the last two seasons on IR… I hope that's one incentive laden contract with a very low base salary.

 

Nah, I just "know'' what Hartline "is' and suspect the rest of the league does as well.

Also think he'd be ideal in New England and they probably privately covet his services the way they did Welker's.

4 millie for Hartline is just a low ball, but as I've said, we shall see.

Edit:

From NE's pov, they can let Welker walk, sign Hartline for much less than Wes wants and weaken a divisional opponent and we receive a 5th rd compensatory pick.

 

If Jeff Ireland really believes we are one wide receiver away from a playoff berth then he is a fool. The Brandon Marshall fiasco (which is exactly what it was) should drive that point home.

If you want to franchise Long, I'm sure Chicago or Pittsburgh or San Diego will offer at least their first and third. I wouldn't do it personally, but there will be a market.

I'm all in favor of not bringing in Greg Jennings. I'd be much happier to re-sign Long, trade away Dansby, draft a linebacker and a safety highly, re-sign Starks and Smith, try to poach Cliff Avril from Detroit and get Jared Cook. We are not far from the makings of a dominant defense if you hit on those draft picks, assuming Patterson plays to expectations, and I believe Ireland is a better defensive scout anyway.

 

I don't think Jake Long's negotiating position is really all that good, and it's pretty likely he ends up taking a pay cut for a variety of reasons.

His play this year wasn't at all white-washed like it is for a lot of guys. If anything, it's been over exaggerated. Him not making the Pro Bowl despite the nature of that institute I think is a huge indicator of popular belief in regards to Long.

The market for him also is not great. Not all of these guys will make it there, but Ryan Clady and Brandon Albert are both safer, big-money buys at this point. Sebastian Vollmer and Andre Smith have both performed very well at Right Tackle and might be worth big money at Left Tackle. William Beatty has also performed pretty well this year too.

As was previously mentioned, it's also quite possible that Jake Long will be unable to complete a physical, or not be at full strength by the time free agency rolls around. If he had a torn tricep, which seems pretty likely, it's a 3+ month recovery.

 

I think Hartline is worth around $5 million a year.

However I think using contracts that are older than last season will cause a lot of players to make less money in the long run.

 

I suspect between 5 and 7 is the battle ground, suspect he settles for a bit less than 6 million, certainly not 4 imo.

 

I could see him go 4.5 or so the first seaon and 7 million on his finaly year of the contract.

 

All about the signing $$$.

I'm thinking 5.75 on avg when all is said and done, fair deal for both sides and he will have at least one more big deal ahead of him.

Sad truth though, that gawky looking scarecrow dude is not making any endorsement dollars anytime soon..

 

Interesting. So people consider Sean Smith a #3 corner. Didn't know that. I thought he was generally regarded as a strong #2. Guess not.

 

Do you think that rating correctly describes his level of play? Or are you just arguing it? Be honest. You think he's been worse than Nolan Carroll? You think he's been worse than 77 other corners in the NFL?

What about Corey Webster, Janoris Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Cortland Finnegan, Mike Jenkins, Aqib Talib, Nnnamdi Asomugha, Rashean Mathis and DeAngelo Hall? All of them rated by PFF even lower than Sean Smith. Are they #3's?

 

Incidentally back to the subject of Sam Montgomery, ...



...ouch.

 

^^^

 

What an ******* way to motivate someone...





Somebody's bound to do the right thing. Those ****ers are lost...

 

Personally I think he's stepped up this year, played better than ever, taken on a LOT more responsibility and tough assignments than he ever has before, and you brought up his being targeted so many times...and what's remarkable to me is despite that he has still only allowed 1.11 yards per pass snap, 54% completion and 6.4 yards per attempt. That to me is a CREDIT to his coverage this year. Passing in his direction has been a losing strategy. That's the truth. Why does it happen so often? Lots of reasons, some of which being coverage lapses onhis part which induce QBs to throw on him. Just like any corner. But not least of the reasons he gets thrown toward so much is the Dolphins keeping on putting him on the best players, with the least amount of help.

 

Those people clearly don't remember how Richard Marshall played as a boundary cornerback if they'd rather "take their chances" with Marshall as the #2 cornerback.

 

Couldn't agree more. And they likely also haven't seen Dimitri Patterson try and play the perimeter.

 

Exactly, for a Cb of his experience Zone should not be that difficult for him and yet it is.

I like SS24 just think 7.5 millie is way to high for a limited player.

 

Then again, could be that Marshall came out of camp with the bad back and tried to play through it was just ineffective.

That is one of those inside the building deals that we cannot really know.

 

You really amaze me, you know that?

 

Usually when I hear that there are large breasts and lip stick involved but I'll take it.

 

I'm not sure why the Richard Marshall stuff is accepted so uncritically. He hurt his back, and played through it at some point, we don't know what. He missed most of the snaps in his second game, that seems like a logical point as any.

Kevin Coyle has earned the benefit of the doubt on placing players where he chooses at this point.

 

Yep, watched him play in Carolina, he was up and down one bad yr, one great yr, went to AZ had another solid yr and it seems to me he did not suddenly forget how to play football.

 

Swore he was a woman..should have done a ""sheila" check.

 

+3 pts for Crocodile Dundee reference.

Paul gets -5 for calling **** oompa loompas.

Score is

Padre 3, Paul -5.

 

While that's true and a good point to raise, the reason I think Richard Marshall is bad on the outside is primarily because I watched a good amount of tape of him at Arizona and even Carolina, and that's how I came to that conclusion. And it was the same conclusion the Arizona Cardinals came to as well, and you could see it by virtue of how his usage morphed through the season. He himself admitted the Cardinals were the only other team that were interested in him during free agency, and that their offer was significantly less than Miami's. Miami's offer was to pay him like a high quality nickel. This suggests to me that even Arizona thought of him as a run of the mill, Benny Sapp type nickel.

And for what it's worth which to you I'm sure won't be much, I felt he was pretty bad on the outside from the get-go against the Houston Texans. He was thrown on a bunch and allowed a bunch of completions and also was guilty of a 26 yard pass interference in the end zone that gave the Texans a 1st & Goal from the 1 yard line. Essentially he allowed 5 of 7 passes to be complete for 67 yards and a TD.