Those great stats but still it's only through two weeks.

 

Gotta love the takeaway and secondary stats though. @cbrad can elaborate, but IIRC, those two stats are big predictors of season success.

 

Single biggest thing since the beginning of football is the ability to run the ball and conversely stop the run.
Through two games anyway, we seem to be able to do both.

Lets see what it looks like after week 4 and week 8.

 

If they were bottom five in everything, 90% of the people on here would be calling for everyone's head.

It matters right now.

 

I remain cautious. Why?

Considering this: It takes approx 6-8 weeks to settle into new systems, especially on offense, and at least a year year and a half to install the entire playbook.

Titans had a completely new coaching staff as they were led by a rookie HC, a new OC, and new DC which of course means new systems and lingo across the board. Don't forget we played their backup for approx half the game as well.

The Jets had a new OC, new offensive system, and a rookie QB. And while you always need a little luck on your side, and a win is a win, they were some breakdowns in coverages that should have led directly to points for the Jets. Particularly with 0:16 left in the 2nd quarter when Enunwa was left wide open in the back of the endzone after a fake smoke screen to the 3x1 bunch. And should Pryor have had just a smidgen more awareness on his dig in the endzone, he had Howard beat inside for 6 which instead resulted in an INT.

Next up is the Raiders with an entire new coaching staff as well with a new HC, OC, and DC, and new systems on both sides of the ball.


I know, there's a lot of coulda', woulda', shoulda' scenarios that didn't happen, but that's why I remain reserved in my optimism thus far.

 

Isn't our defense only in their 2nd year in a new system? And isn't our QB only in his 2nd year in a new system?

 

Would it be fair to say the defensive turnovers are a result of player effort more than they would defensive scheme? Off my head, I think I remember Kiko having an interception in game 1 and a forced fumble in game 2. Not bad. He’s another guy I have to give credit to. :-) So far, It seems a couple of guys are forcing me to eat a healthy dose of crow. No worries though, I am choking it down happily!!

 

Look, We all know the real yardstick game is in two weeks and we have to take care of business this week first but so far I've been more than pleasantly surprised by the defense. Give it a little more time and the offense will get better too.

So far about as good as we could have hoped at the beginning of the season.

 

You can only play what’s in front of you. It’s not our fault that we’ve played teams with new coaches.

As we all know, bigger tests will come, but winning builds confidence and these victories and performances will stand the team in good stead for the sterner challenges ahead.

 

I agree completely with you. I think that the defense is light years ahead of the last few years' defenses in that they stop the run well (so far), close much better in all areas, and are stopping the bubble screen but there were too many wide open receivers on obvious passing downs. If they clean this up then I'll say the defense is legit.

 

Well that might get better if we actually ran DIME coverage every now and again.

 

In many ways, the team has really just picked up where they left off when Tannehill was hurt. Both the offense and defense are playing in a very, very similar way that they were in December of 2016, despite the large number of players that have been changed out.

Its fair to just totally ignore that 2017 happened, which is what I've been saying for a long time.

 

Yeah, in terms of what matters most for winning, points allowed, turnover differential and defensive passer rating are the most important of the stats listed there, and in that order (expect for of course the "2-0" stat).

Points allowed has a -0.7366 correlation to win%, turnover differential has a 0.6279 correlation to win% (comparable to the 0.6321 correlation that offensive passer rating has), and defensive passer rating has a -0.5977 correlation to win%.

The other stats are nice for discussion purposes but aren't anywhere near as meaningful for winning. Either way, the MOST important stat when looking at these stats is the VERY small sample size. Those correlations are over a 16 game season. The 95% confidence intervals over just 2 games is so astronomically large that almost any end result is still within that interval. So this is all nice, but let's wait for a lot more games to be played before thinking it's truly indicative of how the season will play out.

 

We're are entering our 3rd season in both systems.

Burke took over the playbook from Joseph and continued the use of the attacking 4-3 scheme.

And while Tannehill was injured, all he had to do during that time was study the playbook as it's still the same playbook that the offense has been in since Gase was hired in '16.

 

I thought C-brad mentioned that passer rating differential was the best indicator for w’s...

Not sure but if that is the case, we’re the best in the NFL.

 

Yeah, passer rating differential has a very high correlation with win%. Across NFL history it's 0.7946 but it's crept up a bit in recent decades and the variance is less today than decades ago (in other words it's becoming a more reliable indicator). Really the only stat that has higher correlation is point differential, which is at 0.9151.

Oh, and so that last sentence above isn't too confusing keep in mind I'm talking about point differential across a season, not on a game-by-game basis (of course on a game-by-game basis it's a perfect predictor).

 

The Fins point differential is better than every team in the NFC except the Rams! Only tied for 5th in the AFC though. Its of course very early though, and the Jets are still +23, while the Ravens are +33.

Being +48.3 in passer rating can't be a bad thing! :up:

 

Here's another point differential stat I'm going to follow: Worst point differential per game in NFL history was by the 0-14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1976 at -20.5. Buffalo right now is at -27.5. Let's see if Buffalo can get into the record books lol.

 

Over a season it’s a pretty good indicator too.

Unless the wins are by large margins and the defeats by small ones, or vice-versa.

 

We are winning WITHOUT the offense being all that efficient, which is great, as the team has plenty of room to get better on offense. Miami should be hitting a solid stride as the schedule gets more difficult, so I expect us to be in every game.

 

That will happen as long as the defense keeps forcing turnovers.

 

Biggest takeaway for me was that NE once again has the fewest penalties despite their offensive line holding every snap.

 

Fans rarely understand blocking techniques and what is and what is not actually holding. Scarnecchia is one of the best OL coaches in the game and there should be little wonder as to why NE is well disciplined with superb play up front.

 

Then what the heck happened to Nate Solder? Did you see him in the Giants game? Not Good.

 

Should be self explanatory; he's not playing in Scarnecchia's scheme. Offensive line play consists of 5 players, not one.

 

Interesting. I didn't know that having your arm around Cam Wake's neck every play was considered proper technique. Silly me. I must be stupid.

 

Honestly, that was one of the things that really bugged me about the Gase regime and would have been a checkmark in the "reasons to fire" if the season went to pot. Nice to see we turned it around, and hopefully we can keep it up.

As for New England, it's winner's bias and reputation. The best teams often have less penalties. The Patriots have the rep of being a clean team penalty wise, and win a lot of games, so they will get more borderline calls (either active calls that benefit, or flags swallowed that would hurt) than teams like the Browns or Jets. Similar to the NBA where a star will get calls all day but a scrub just loads up on fouls.

 

That's dangerous. TO's a boon, and good teams usually end up on the plus, but big deviations from the mean are rife for regression. I remember a few years back when the Bears with guys like Peanut Tillman were causing all kinds of havoc for like half a season. Then the TO's dried up and the team wilted.

 

And while that is obviously true he shouldn't have forgotten how to go one on one, should he?

 

I'd have to watch in detail but the Giants OL (poor overall unit) faced the Jags and Cowboys and it depends on how those defenses choose to pressure the passer, where their overloads were and how the Giants went about in directing help.

 

I hear Dolphin fans all the time complain that Wake is held, but if the inside hand is on his chest, even with a crooked arm with the lineman off to the side Wake, then no. There's a reason those instances are rarely called for holding. There are such techniques like slingshot, snatch & trap, among others that are proper pass pro techniques for low edge rushers like Wake. The OL can even shove him to the ground with the other hand on his hip, which looks like a tackle to the untrained eye.

Silly you.

 

This is wholly incorrect information actually.

The NFL rules state that holding is defined as follows:


Rule 12, Section 1, Article 3: ILLEGAL BLOCK BY OFFENSIVE PLAYER
It is a foul if an offensive blocker:

(c) Use his hands or arms to materially restrict an opponent or alter the defender’s path or angle of pursuit. It is a foul regardless of whether the blocker’s hands are inside or outside the frame of the defender’s body. Material restrictions include but are not limited to:

(1) grabbing or tackling an opponent;
(2) hooking, jerking, twisting, or turning him; or
(3) pulling him to the ground.
Penalty: For holding by the offense: Loss of 10 yards.

In case you're curious, here's an example of a typical Patriots possession that shows clear an obvious holding. The official is 6 yards away and swallows his whistle. The Patriots are the only team in the league who get away with this.

 

I didn't write the rules man. The NFL did. I'm just presenting what is listed as the actual definition of holding.

I do believe they were written poorly however. My personal interpretation of what that writing means is that the blocker is not allowed to alter the defender's path by physically diverting him from that path. Instead the blocker is only allowed to stop the defender along that path. If the defender changes the path on his own that's fine, but you can't push him into a new path or otherwise use your hands/arms to hook, jerk, twist, or pull the defender to the ground.

So, if I'm blocking a guy I can stop him from continuing on his path through me, but I'm not allowed to push him off that path or use my hands/arms as a way of diverting him to the side or to the ground, or stopping him by grabbing once he has passed.

 

It's a vertical pass set noted by the double kick slide. Wake already has an edge before the RT is set. The RT then punches with his outside hand to Wake's outside shoulder. As Wake continues to gain ground on him, the RT uses a snatch technique with his outside arm, and attempts to drive his hips with his inside arm. The RT fails to get his hand on his hip and immediately begins to slide off, not holding any jersey or altering Wake's path beyond that point.



No hold, no foul.

I am not going to lead you folks astray. I will always give you factual, unbiased information. That's how I roll. There's already quite a few people that have blocked me because I'm not here to paint a false, flowery picture of the Dolphins when it's not warranted. Feel free to do the same.

Hope you can learn more about the game of football. Have a good evening.

*correction RT. I'm accustomed to diagnosing everything from the defensive POV.