I use a formula that has served me well for years now based on the historical production (wins) based on several factors:
Aside from the usual advanced Def. and Off. Eff. stats..I use:
A) 3rd down conversion % on the road. (for and against)
B) 1st down YPP
C) Penalty yardage per drive.
D) Avg. Poss. against / time per poss.
Before the season..projecting with our new additions, the Dolphins figured to be a +8.5 win team. Which is ok...
As the season went on, the historical data was upticking throughout with a slight dip and then drastic spike in our last 3 game win streak. At 8-6..the team had historical data to suggest a +10.5 win team. That is damn good. Only the Broncos, Seahawks, Chiefs, and Panthers had a better win rating.
Then these games came.
The Miami Dolphins managed to do something that has only been done once before in the years I chart (1997-today). They managed to lose 2 games off their win projection with two actual losses. The only other time that happened? 2002 Miami Dolphins. That team had the HIGHEST win projection in the NFL after beating the Raiders...then dropped two full games down from +11.5 to +9.5 with the final two losses.
That team was also the only Dolphin team since 1997 that had the numerical classification as a Super Bowl contender.
Here is the question....what type of team can reverse it's historical statistical classification with a mere two games? Answer? THIS TEAM!
-
-
Forgetting Ireland's failures in FA and the 2013 draft, this is still a colossal failure on the coaching staff and leads me to two conclusions:
1) Ireland and Philbin need to both be fired
2) This job, with Tannehill as a potential franchise QB is very attractive to the right GM/Coach. -
Philbin had a playoff contender. -
In essence....Philbin had a team at 8-6 that at +10.5 wins likely makes the playoffs +86% of the time. With the two losses, dropping their win projection to +8.5...that made them a team that historically makes the playoffs around 52% of the time.
-
Question. Why don't you track offensive and defensive passer rating?
-
-
So what you call offensive and defensive efficiency is just offensive and defensive passer rating? -
-
http://www.gridironrank.com/2013-dolphins.htmlDesides likes this. -
-
I compare the current season with the projection. Then waited for the season to end to see where it stood historically.
it is entirely possible that this 8-8 season would be worth a projection of +4.5 wins..like the NY JETS. (see what I am getting at?)
The Dolphins preseason projection was +8.5 wins. At points during the season, the numbers were showing a team that was overachieving...in the end...it showed one that slightly under-achieved. But if you put it up at 8-6..it shows a team that VASTLY underachieved...by 2 games. -
-
-
That 2002 team had the best offensive production by a Miami Dolphins team in recent memory. They averaged 1.9 points per drive. That was Norv Turner's first year as the offensive coordinator and also Ricky Williams's record setting year.
-
2002 team was a legitimate SB threat...
Why you pass the ball 3 straight times to leave NE with time and timeouts when you have the leagues best RB that year is still beyond me. -
-
In a nutshell, this team under performed.
The stunning part is losing the two games to Buf and NYJ, I'd think statistically those 2 losses coming in back to back weeks would nearly be a black swan event. -
You've done EXACTLY what I've been doing, comparing this meltdown to the 2002 team.
What should have been done? Wannstedt should have been fired immediately. Instead, he hung on and a year and a half later, we bottomed out.
This is the same situation and I see a similar circumstance coming. The only difference is, I believe we have a quarterback now. It's possible that we destroy him by 2015, the year we go 3-13 if this current band of morons is retained.
Fire them, fire them all.Section126 and maynard like this. -
-
You said yourself they started as a 8.5...... So it was the 3 game win streak that spiked the projections before the team reverted back to its usual ways.
Either way, we tanked. Coaching is the reason we've been so wildly inconsistent. We got into a position to make the playoffs because of the quality of the roster. -
-
-
it is possible to win around 11 games and be rather terrible. Last year's Colts team was awful statistically.