Advanced Stats Poo-Pooing on Tannehill

"Rock Sexton wrote:

No. I said besides their pass defense ranking "as a team" they are bad. Hence their record.

Simple math, that's what's for dinner. Then I was told many teams in the NFL have poor records this year, so somehow that means anything as if to excuse "overall" poor play from them.

Check it....this is a thread about Tannehill. Sooooo, pop quiz, what part of the other team does Tannehill play against....don't worry its multiple choice...

A. The pass defense
B. Special Teams
C. the water boy

You can guess until you get it right.....nope its not B.....try again...nope not C.....sigh...no, you already guessed B and its still wrong....A, the answer is A.

So, if the argument was that Tannehill thrashed the team's #1 pass defense, then the team record doesn't really matter...unless you just hate Tannehill because you're a tiny man with big anger.

"Fin D wrote:

Check it....this is a thread about Tannehill. Sooooo, pop quiz, what part of the other team does Tannehill play against....don't worry its multiple choice...

A. The pass defense
B. Special Teams
C. the water boy

You can guess until you get it right.....nope its not B.....try again...nope not C.....sigh...no, you already guessed B and its still wrong....A, the answer is A.

So, if the argument was that Tannehill thrashed the team's #1 pass defense, then the team record doesn't really matter...unless you just hate Tannehill because you're a tiny man with big anger.

I said "The Dolphins" thrashed those teams, not just Tannehill. As we've seen now, when we commit to the run and they're gashing people suddenly Tannehill's play is much better. Go figure.

Regardless, it changes nothing about that fact that the overall level of competition we faced. They were bad "teams".

"Rock Sexton wrote:

I said "The Dolphins" thrashed those teams, not just Tannehill. As we've seen now, when we commit to the run and they're gashing people suddenly Tannehill's play is much better. Go figure.

Regardless, it changes nothing about that fact that the overall level of competition we faced. They were bad "teams".

lol.

According to you, the running game, oline, defense, etc. don't matter, because W/L record is a QB stat. Based on that, its not possible for the running game to affect Tannehill positively or negatively.

And, that's exactly the argument that's been made before on here: the QB makes the run game and pass protection better, not vice versa.

Oh, and it's not simply "running the ball more" that's changed m. It's the oline and Sims being back. The players is huge in blocking schemes.

Funny, we are seeing so many acrobatics right now.

"padre31 wrote:

Not totally against Stat Monkeys, what I would like to see is a more textured approach to statistical analysis.

For example, a weighted performance based on the unit being faced.

Shred a bad Texans D should not count as heavily in analysis as shredding, or being shut down, by a really good Jest D.

ELO rankings naturally do that if you operate on the win/loss record for an entire team.

To apply ELO more generally for individual units that face each other (e.g. offense vs. defense using say Y/A as a measure), you just need to know the probability of getting a specific offensive Y/A given defensive Y/A. You can get that estimate by finding the correlation between offensive and defensive Y/A over time (for units facing each other) as well as the average variance at each location (the variance allows you to compute the aforementioned probability).

It's not difficult to do.. someone just has to do it. ELO for teams based on W/L however already is done for the NFL.

"resnor wrote:

And, that's exactly the argument that's been made before on here: the QB makes the run game and pass protection better, not vice versa.

Oh, and it's not simply "running the ball more" that's changed m. It's the oline and Sims being back. The players is huge in blocking schemes.

Funny, we are seeing so many acrobatics right now.

Wish some would just keep backflipping back to FH.

Or Phinfever. Whichever sewer they want to crawl back into is fine by me.

The play doesn't show up on the stat sheets because it was called back due to a penalty, but Tanne threw an absolute sweet and accurate deep ball to Parker.

"Fin D wrote:

lol.

According to you, the running game, oline, defense, etc. don't matter, because W/L record is a QB stat. Based on that, its not possible for the running game to affect Tannehill positively or negatively.

I never said none of those matter. I said the QB position naturally carries more responsibility and impact, particularly for upper-echelon teams.

We don't have an upper-echelon team and certainly not an upper-echelon QB. He's extremely dependent on the rest of the offense. Hence the revival of the passing game once we focused more on the run.

Congrats to Campbell though, at least he gets it. Philbonehead certainly didn't.

Personal pot shots are not allowed. Neither is baiting someone with strawman arguments...basically cut the crap. Obviously you two have something personal going on...either solve it via pm or put each other on block. Those are the only two options.

"Boik14 wrote:

Personal pot shots are not allowed. Neither is baiting someone with strawman arguments...basically cut the crap. Obviously you two have something personal going on...either solve it via pm or put each other on block. Those are the only two options.

I don't have anything going on with him. Supposedly I'm "blocked" (which he always comes on here to post about) but anytime I come around with a contrarian opinion, there he is again taking personal shots and mincing my words.

"Rock Sexton wrote:

I don't have anything going on with him. Supposedly I'm "blocked" (which he always comes on here to post about) but anytime I come around with a contrarian opinion, there he is again taking personal shots and mincing my words.

I'm not here to referee it...pm each other and work it out, block him, I don't care which you choose but choose one.

And to be clear if I have to keep coming back to this during a world series game (Let's Go Mets!), you'll both be taking a few days off....

"jdang307 wrote:

It's not a bad thing. But you look at it to analyze the QB and the WRs. Throw a 2 yard pass to a receiver who ran it 48 yards, vs a 50 yard bomb are two different evaluations.

Sure, but does it really matter? The end result is the same. It's like going around a circle in opposite directions to get to the same point. It's not like there is a difference between a fifty yard gain; it is still a fifty yard gain. Also it's not as if Ryan threw every ball barely past the line of scrimmage, he'll he it Landry twelve yards down the field, which is a first down.

"Boik14 wrote:

I'm not here to referee it...pm each other and work it out, block him, I don't care which you choose but choose one.

And to be clear if I have to keep coming back to this during a world series game (Let's Go Mets!), you'll both be taking a few days off....

No need. I'm watching my Mets too.

"cbrad wrote:

ELO rankings naturally do that if you operate on the win/loss record for an entire team.

To apply ELO more generally for individual units that face each other (e.g. offense vs. defense using say Y/A as a measure), you just need to know the probability of getting a specific offensive Y/A given defensive Y/A. You can get that estimate by finding the correlation between offensive and defensive Y/A over time (for units facing each other) as well as the average variance at each location (the variance allows you to compute the aforementioned probability).

It's not difficult to do.. someone just has to do it. ELO for teams based on W/L however already is done for the NFL.

This is for the fans, not the league.

Thus pure W/L would not be very probitive, as fans we would like to know where our guys stack up against the rest of the league in an objective manner.

Stats wise, it does not matter, no sure it that a 4 yd pass went 50 yds for a Td, both players are equally responsible for the outcome of the play, if a 4 yd pass gains 4 yds, the concept would be the same.

Now, to look at a fans pov, how well is Tannehill throwing the ball, in the air, 40 yds down the field it would matter from a player development pov. The subtext to " a 4yd pass went 50 yds" is "not a very good play by the Qb" which is simple nonsense.

Here is a scenario where that COULD reflect negatively on the offense as a whole, same play, goes 50 yds, Turner gives up instant pressure and THill is out 4 games with a concusion. The play is a "win" as a whole, the offense failed as a unit.

its good to see ryan play within himself and efficient when his variables have improved.

were a team now, a team that was under real bad guidance, were seeing before our eyes how bad the discrepency was.

Also remember the PFF rating and FO's dyar rating are both measures of production, not efficiency. So comparing theose stats to QBR is a bit like comparing a RB's total yards and average per rush.

YAC is also a problem for the advanced stats guys. For example both of Landry's TDs were because Landry bounced through and around tacklers, and for most WRs that would be 2 catches for 20 yards and 0 TDs. However the Mathews and Miller TDs were mainly because Tannehill hit them in stride. So on 2 of the TDs the throw is almost irrelevant as long as it was in Landry's catch radius, yet in the other 2 throws precise placement caused the YAC to happen.

Which is why stats are meant to complement your visual assessment, not replace it. Although I thought it amusing that both sites went to long efforts to justify their stats as being correct, when they could have just shrugged and said it was an unusual game that their systems dont't catch becaause RT's performance was atypical.

"ckparrothead wrote:

Air yards aren't precisely "useless", but they certainly are a dubious statistic. The statistic often does not tell you what you think it's supposed to tell you.

I see some value in air yards when looked at YPA as that tells you what the offense is trying to do. But I see air yards YPC as useless in terms of evaluating QB play. The difference is usually a result of deep passes completed and deep passes has as much (or more) to do with the WR than the QB.

I don't think the game plan was "ok you run a 9 yard out, almost step out of bounds, then juke back across the defense run around for a 100 yards and then get into the endzone.... that would be pretty crappy game planning at this level.

"dolphin25 wrote:

I don't think the game plan was "ok you run a 9 yard out, almost step out of bounds, then juke back across the defense run around for a 100 yards and then get into the endzone.... that would be pretty crappy game planning at this level.

LOL, if I can quote the guy from the legitimate business mans club, "it's funny cuz it's true".

Lol. So we've gone from outright tannehill bashing to tannehill nitpicking. Guess its progress

"padre31 wrote:

Not totally against Stat Monkeys, what I would like to see is a more textured approach to statistical analysis.

For example, a weighted performance based on the unit being faced.

Shred a bad Texans D should not count as heavily in analysis as shredding, or being shut down, by a really good Jest D.

They did that in this article.

The last factor hurting Tannehill's DYAR totals is opponent adjustments. In Week 7, we bump opponent adjustments up to 70 percent strength, and they are starting to have a major effect on the weekly standings now. Tom Brady's DYAR rises by 66 after opponent adjustments are factored in; Sam Bradford's rises by 60. On the other end of the spectrum, EJ Manuel, Teddy Bridgewater, Andrew Luck, and Cousins each saw their DYAR drop by 30 or more due to opponent adjustments. Houston's defense isn't terrible (it's hard to imagine that a team with J.J. Watt would ever be terrible), but it's not very good, and Tannehill gets dinged for facing them.

They also noted his 3rd down performance, 1 for 5, but that 1 was a TD.

I don't get the beef with these stats from FO. It's not like they changed it this week to give Tannehill a bad rating. They've come up with stats they think isolate QB play. Each website does that. It's what they do. The team did an excellent job Sunday. Best in the NFL. But 10 passes were at or behind the LOS. Those are just about the easiest passes to make in the NFL. These FO guys take that into account.

Alex Smith had an eerily similar stat line. Because short throws are easier to make. That doesn't take anything away from Tanny's performance. But they're trying to grade performances and this is what they think is the best way.

It's weird how thill gets a pass for a terrible oline performance behind Philbin idiotic playcalling but Miller is trash and needs to be replaced. Huge double standard with the thill homers. Miller is a stud rb if given an opportunity. He's the biggest reason for the last 2 wins. Hopefully he can keep it up because this offense runs through him. This will be an interesting week because both defenses are going to try to take away the dink n dunk. Brady can't throw downfield worth a spit himself, unless it's a jump ball to Gronkowski. I fully expect the Pats to load the box and force thill to throw past the line of acrimmage. I like our weapons 1 on 1 downfield. Let's just hope Thill is willing to give them a chance to make a play downfield.
The good news is thill looks better throwing downfield the last couple weeks. The few attempts he has made anyways. Still and Parker passes were on point. I'd like to see us come out early in 2te sets, behind center and run some playaction passes and take shots 15-25 yards downfield. Hit a couple of those early on and Miller should continue to have success. It's painfully obvious that this offense is dependent on Miller more than anything. Huge dropoff with Miller on the sideline.

"jdang307 wrote:

They did that in this article.

They also noted his 3rd down performance, 1 for 5, but that 1 was a TD.

I don't get the beef with these stats from FO. It's not like they changed it this week to give Tannehill a bad rating. They've come up with stats they think isolate QB play. Each website does that. It's what they do. The team did an excellent job Sunday. Best in the NFL. But 10 passes were at or behind the LOS. Those are just about the easiest passes to make in the NFL. These FO guys take that into account.

Alex Smith had an eerily similar stat line. Because short throws are easier to make. That doesn't take anything away from Tanny's performance. But they're trying to grade performances and this is what they think is the best way.

Let's look at the 1 of 5 on 3rd downs:

First 3rd down play, 3rd and 1, Gray no gain
Second 3rd down play, 3rd and 4, RT to Landry TD
Third 3rd down play, 3rd and 13, RT to Miller 6 yds
Fourth 3rd down play, 3rd and 11, Gray 4 yds
Fifth 3rd down play, 3rd and 2, Williams fumble
Sixth 3rd down play, 3rd and 19, Gray 4 yds
Seventh 3rd down play, 3rd and 13, RT to Gray 10 yds
Eighth 3rd down play, 3rd and 6, RT inc to Sims (we all know what happened here)

There was another 3rd down play that was negated by a holding penalty on the Dolphins, so it shouldn't be counted. Also, they got a lot of first downs on 2nd down, so I guess that's a negative too?

So it was actually 1 of 4 with a TD and a drop, so you could feasibly say he did his job on both of those 2...the other 2 were over 10 yards -- low probability down and distance, in which he hit his receiver and made a completion, but didn't get a first. Additionally, 1 of 2 (2/2 completions) on 3rd downs in the first half with a TD, before taking starters out, etc, so there's context to consider also, but that's not what their system is about, so it is what it is. It's their system, so they can say what they want.

I'm not saying he's league MVP or is throwing like Rodgers, but there's always more to the story. He had a "very good" day and did his job as asked by the OC/HC. I suppose next time they should just get enough YAC to get the 1st down and stop there...pump up them 1st down numbers.