Good rundown, man. Thank you. Lots of big games this week. If we can win, it will be a lot of fun.

 

We haven't been in that position during the final weeks in a long time, though. For this season, I'm happy to at least be where we are.

 

That's exactly what I was going to say...we are still largely in control since other AFC teams have brutal schedules. Good teams will lose and divisions will shake out the low hanging fruit. We just have to win- the playoffs for us essentially start this Sunday and it's a 7-game stretch to the Super Bowl.

Maybe we can afford one loss across the first four, but that can't be their mentality if they really want to make a run here.

 

Isn't there a scenario where we want BAL to beat NE and also win their division because of H2H vs pitt?

 

Just concern yourself with winning what you can control.. In other words, take care of business and the rest (should) fall into place.

 

H2H for wild card only comes into play if one team has beaten all other teams it is tied with. Since that won't occur if we're tied at 10-6 with 2 or more teams (among realistic candidates), and we're very likely to lose tie breakers at 10-6 or worse with Denver or KC, the one realistic scenario where we'd want Baltimore to take the division is if Denver goes 1-3. That way we get in vs. Pittsburgh even if they also go 10-6.

So seen from that point of view, it doesn't matter if NE beats the Ravens. In fact, if you assume we won't go 4-0 and that beating the Ravens straight up for a WC spot won't occur, then it's probably better for the Ravens to win because we lose 3-way tie breakers with them too (their conference record beats ours).

 

Yeah, I came up with the same math...Arizona technically isn't a "must-win" game. But for the players and the fans alike, it would be a heck of a lot better if we won and stopped the panic attacks.

If we do win though, then the Jets becomes the least important match-up and technically not a must-win scenario. I really think we need to save that pass for the Buffalo game though; that's the one that scares me the most of the 4.

 

We just have to win..and not worry. 11 and 5 and we are in. So...Miami can just win and not worry.



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We can afford one loss...to Arizona. I dont think we can afford to lose any of our AFC games.

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If we win out....our chances of making the playoffs are 88%
If we win 3 of 4 ...we have a 52% chance of making playoffs..
If we win 2 of 4...we have a 13% chance of making playoffs..

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/dolphinswhatif.html


Last year at this time...we had a zero percent chance...so call me a happy Dolphan!

 

Yeah.. like I pointed out in the other thread, let's not put any real credibility into these playoff predictors. Their ability to accurately predict the outcome of any single game is so poor that the resulting probabilities can't be trusted (unless it's 0% or 100% haha). And of course different sites use different methods, none of which work well.

So no one knows what the real probabilities of making the playoffs are if we win 2 out of 4 or 3 out of 4, etc..

 

Id like to think they are more accurate then.....if we go 10 and 6 its unlikely we will make the playoffs.

 

As fans we are free to, almost OBLIGATED actually, to speculate wildly! We can put things in broad terms though. Win 1 of 4 and we have no chance for the playoffs, win 2 of 4 and we have a small chance, win 3 of 4 we have a middling chance, win 4 of 4 and we have an excellent chance!

That said, I can't root for the Pats just yet. I'm more inclined to 'swing for the fences' and hope the Patsies lose to both the Ravens and at Denver, so we have an epic game the last week of the season for the Division crown. Not ready to let that dream go! :)

 

I'd like to think so too.

Anyway, as I pointed out in the other thread, my claim was only based on a very small subset of what we fans tend to think are likely scenarios. But which is more accurate: 1) considering only a tiny subset of all cases but doing so with minimal error, or 2) considering all cases but propagating errors across the board? No one knows.

 

I think Brad's right that we can't look at these as rote, but I do think they are in the ball park.

If we go 11-5 the chances of making the playoffs are very high.
If we go 10-6 the chances are up in the air right now.
If we go 9-7 the chances are very slim.

 

Isnt that the same for the Dolphins?

 

It would really suck to win 11 and not get in.

 

Apparently, Denver in 1985 also didn't get in with 11-5, though that was when there were 5 teams in the division:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1985/

 

KC is playing good ball. They could sneak up on some folks. I think they're in.

 

Even if we miss the playoffs, 9-7 would feel a hell of a lot better than 7-9! If we go 10-6 and miss out, I'm not going to hang my head. It will be one of the best seasons we've had in ages and something to build from.

 

I don't buy KC. Their game never translates in the playoffs. Reed plays scared at times.