Reason No. 206 to be discouraged about the Dolphins: Even the areas they assure us will be strengths never quite seem to measure up to expectations, and we’re seeing that play out yet again.
The Dolphins presumed they would be very good against the run and generate a bunch of explosive plays and even told us to expect more impact plays from their new linebackers and that Ryan Tannehill would make the greatest jump of the second-year quarterbacks.
Now consider reality:
Run defense: For all of the hype around the front seven, any suggestion the Dolphins are among the best against the run is pure myth. They were at one point: In 2011, their last year in a 3-4 defense, they ranked third. That slipped to 13th in 2012, and now they’re 19th.
More explosive plays: Another unfulfilled promise, and a big reason why the Dolphins rank ahead only dreadful Jacksonville in AFC total offense.
Mike Wallace, billed as one of the top deep threats in the game, is tied with Jeremy Kerley and Ace Sanders, among others, for an absurd 70th with just four plays of 20 yards or more. That’s behind 69 other players, including the likes of Doug Baldwin (8), Ted Ginn and Jason Avant (6). By contrast, Baltimore’s Torrey Smith has 14.
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We were told to expect more game-changing plays from the new linebackers. Forget that. Ellerbe has no forced fumbles, interceptions or sacks; the man he replaced, Arizona’s Karlos Dansby, has 2.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble. Fact is, the Dolphins never should have expected this from Ellerbe, who has no sacks, one forced fumble and one pick in 52 career games.
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At this point I'd much rather have Misi in the middle replacing Ellerbe, Jordan at OLB and the saved money in Jake Long's pocket as he manned LT for us. Hindsight is 20/20, but it is what it is. -
It seems like Jackson has some sort of personal issue here, because there is some intellectual dishonesty in some of these arguments.
Take the Phillip Wheeler blurb, for example:
There's also this blurb on PFF:
ToddPhin, 2xBlown, MikeHoncho and 4 others like this. -
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One point to stipulate is that Miami's run D has allowed a 3.85 YPC which ranks about 13th in the NFL.
But he is absolutely 100% correct about the run defense wilting in the fourth quarter, which is flat out disturbing. And it's a reason we're losing games. It's not window dressing.2xBlown likes this. -
Another thing Barry should have mentioned but I can understand why he didn't, since his point was to criticize the TEAM and not a specific player...when you mention that Tannehill has only completed 7 of 26 passes 20+ yards down the field (it's actually 8 of 28, incidentally), you probably should mention that two of those passes were dropped by the receiving target.
Tannehill hasn't been quite as accurate down the field as he was in 2012, but it's not far off. He ranked 7th in the NFL in 2012 at 43.1 percent accuracy and is currently at 38.5 percent accuracy. The sample sizes are so low that one game from now he could be back up to 43.1 percent, so the difference is not what I would consider statistically significant.
I only mention this because while Barry Jackson was attempting to criticize the team's deep passing as a whole, many will consider the note a direct criticism of Tannehill's deep passing. He currently ranks 15th out of 24 qualifying quarterbacks in 2013.SICK likes this. -
I found this note to be dead-on:
On the other hand, I think Barry was pretty off on this note:
I actually don't mind the Philip Wheeler acquisition because I think it's the most emblematic of how they wanted to change the defense to suit Kevin Coyle's style. Unlike Ellerbe, Wheeler's success at blitzing was not a fluke. He's been excellent at it since college, as I recall him making an impact that way at Georgia Tech under Chan Gailey and Jon Tenuta.
But at the same time, Kevin Burnett had been performing well. It's a tough call, you hate to ditch a player performing well for another one from an unfamiliar system that you've never coached before. It's a big risk. But if you're making this decision based on the needs of your scheme, I get it.
What I didn't get was doing both the Wheeler/Burnett swap AND the Ellerbe/Dansby swap at the same time. That was a bad idea and the defense is suffering for it, IMO. -
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Another interesting note, especially given certain peoples' misgivings with Jeff Darlington's report:
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So many people hate on Wheeler and I don't understand why. He isn't an All Pro but he's been solid. Ellerbe has been underwhelming for sure.
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Wheeler is a solid SOLID player.
Remember his horrible half sack won us our marquee win of the season.
If we had an all pro at his position were still 3-4. -
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But to me, there isn't a skill drop-off between Burnett and Wheeler, they're just different types. Wheeler is exactly as good at the things Coyle professed to covet as they thought he would be when they acquired him.
Ellerbe is a different story because I do not think he is the player they thought they were acquiring.Rocky Raccoon likes this. -
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I do agree that the defense is a bit underwhelming so far, eve though they've done a much better job this year of forcing turnovers, but they're a good enough unit to win with, IMO.
Tannehill has what? 14 turnovers? And I thought I read we have one of the highest 3 and out rates in the league. That all probably has a negative effect on the defense. -
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I think it's a poorly designed defense, and the replacing of Odrick with Vernon at DE, Starks with Odrick at DT, and Ellerbe & Wheeler for Dansby & Burnett have been collective net negatives. Odrick's done well, certainly better than last year as a DE, but Starks has been just as good, and I think it messed with the integrity of the run defense not having Odrick on the edge with Misi. Vernon's had his lunch handed to him in the run game by the likes of Anthony Castonzo and Nate Solder; that's alarming.
I don't think the scheme makes use of what Olivier Vernon is actually good at; same goes for Dion Jordan. Cameron Wake is clearly still not right after the knee injury, but I think he'd even be better served in a capacity similar to how he was used last year and even under Mike Nolan. And, with bad contracts being given to Ellerbe and Wheeler, and Koa Misi being extended, I think there are a lot of stop gaps in place to reverting back to a 3-4 and to finding more ways to get Dion Jordan snaps.MrClean likes this. -
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Their average yards per play ranks #14 in the league. They've allowed 20.6 first downs per game, which ranks #21 in the league. Their third down conversion percentage ranks #14 in the league. They rank #18 in the league in sacks. For all the turnovers they talk about they rank #13 to #15 in interceptions. They rank #24 to #27 in fumble recoveries. They rank #15 in the league in rushing & receiving touchdowns given up per game.
This is not a defense anyone should be especially proud of. The offense isn't great either but they have scored 22 points per game. They're the top red zone offense in the NFL. The turnover rankings are not what people would think.
It's just interesting to me that the defensive coordinator remains unquestioned while the offensive coordinator is questioned a lot.phintasmic and RoninFin4 like this. -
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MrClean and Rocky Raccoon like this.
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For argument's sake, say Wheeler had 10 pressures and 1 sack.
Say the top LB's score is 49. If you weight pressures to be 3 pts and sacks to be 5 pts, then Wheeler would have a score of 35/49.
Say the top LB's score is 49. If you weight pressures to be 1 pt and sacks to be 10 pts, then Wheeler would have a score of 15/49.
The simple fact of the matter is pressures are generally considered almost as good as sacks. You obviously disagree with that, which is fine. I have argued that Hartline's lack of TDs should seriously hinder his rating as a WR even though he's stellar in many other areas of being a WR. -
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(Or until the boss yells at me) -
I think Cincy will be a good test for Coyle. A good measure. Their skill players pose similar matchup issues to the Saints' offense. Coyle never really adjusted in that game, so now's the time to work on scheming for multiple tough matchups in the opposing passing game. -
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I just think we can all pretty much agree that if we had even average tackles, we'd be 4-3 and probably 5-2 right now. That doesn't excuse the defense for fading at times, but the awful protection and vanilla game plan on offense has been an issue all season.
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I haven't been enthralled by this staff in any sense. That includes the collective group other than the D-line coach. Jackson is hitting at the core of Ireland's personnel decisions. It was wrapped in a big bow with two new linebackers and Mike Wallace. Those personnel decisions aren't looking too hot right now. Even Ireland has to admit that. Heath Evans made a lot of us angry with his "anti" Dolphins talk before the season, but he has generally be spot on. Wallace isn't the guy, and the youth movement at linebacker has been lukewarm at best. A loss to the Bengals has to factor in Ross's mind when addressing Ireland. Not overwhelmed with this coaching staff. I like Philbin, but not sure he can handle the top job. Probably a very good coordinator. Not sure about running a team. If I am Ross I don't think I can hang my hat on anything I have seen this year, including having a future winner. Ross has got some tuff decisions to make. Serious implications for the future of the franchise.
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I think the problem with the run defense is they're giving up too many big runs. I think New England has 2 runs of over 20 yards, and if you take that out we held them to like 3 yards a carry.
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To give you some perspective on that, he got to Oakland in 2012 and they blitzed him 134 times. Through 7 games of 2013, Miami has blitzed him 62 times (pacing for 142 on the year).
He has 4 sacks, 18 hits and 23 hurries during those 23 games where he was used as a blitzer.
Philip Wheeler can't help that he was drafted into an Indianapolis defense that didn't blitz their linebackers. He was a good blitzer in Georgia Tech's defense under Chan Gailey and Jon Tenuta. Indianapolis didn't use him that way.
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