http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...watch-out-for-bills-texans-in-the-second-half
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/toxic-differential/2014/
I just saw Billick talk about this on one of the playbook episodes on NFL network. They showed the top 6 teams and the bottom five teams. The dolphins weren't on either of those lists so i dug further and found the source of the info in the included link. For anyone too lazy to click on the link here is my summary of it.
Basically the toxic differential list keeps track of the differentials for turnovers and the differentials for explosive plays and that number is added together. An explosive play is defined as a play with 20+ yards. Billick explains what we've always heard that if you are plus 2 on turnovers you have an 80% chance of winning that game. If you are plus 2 on explosive plays that you also have an 80% chance of winning that game. If you are plus 2 in both categories in a game, you have a 95% chance of winning that game. He also says that out of the 12 playoff teams that 10 of them will be the top 10 teams in the toxic differential list.
I have decided to update this list based on the 2nd link I just added which credits Billick for coming up with the toxic differential list, but it also defines explosive plays differently. According to that 2nd link an explosive play is a passing play of 25 or more yards and a running play of 10 or more yards. The 1st link has not been updated yet, but after seeing all the rankings of the Dolphins on offense and defense showing that we are a top 10 team, in some cases we are a top 5 team in the league based on team stats, I have decided that the 2nd link is more accurate because it currently has the Dolphins ranked as the 4th best team in the NFL according to the toxic differential.
Top 10 teams
Seahawks 54
Broncos 37
Packers 28
Ravens 26
Lions 21
49ers 19
Texans 12
Redskins 12
Dolphins 9
Browns 8
Bottom 5 teams
Jaguars -22
Titans -25
Chiefs -28
Raiders -40
Giants -42
AFC East
Dolphins 9
Bills 4
Jets 4
Pats 1
If you want anymore details click on the 2nd link, it updates itself just about instantly. After games are played i click on it and already see the updates. We are in good company in the top 10 of this list.
The Dolphins have been in the top 5 for most of the season but the way we've been playing lately has shown up on this list, however we are still in the top 10. #9 to be exact. That isn't saying much if you look at numbers 7 through 10 on this list with teams like the Texans, Redskins, us, and the Browns. I am surprised to see the Pats as the worst team in the AFC East, they have +11 turnovers which is tied for 2nd place in that category but their big play differential is killing them with -10, hopefully the Chargers can take advantage of that next week. The Dolphins play the Ravens who have taken ownership of the 4th best team on this list, that #4 rank is where the Dolphins have been for the majority of the season until we started dropping down the list in the past couple of weeks.
Dolphins +3 T/O diff +6 BP diff +9 toxic differential
Ravens +3 T/O diff +23 BP diff +26 toxic differential
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I also read the the Dolphins are the worst team in the league in scoring outside the red zone..
Doesn't matter though, just come out like crazed dogs and beat the chargers..GARDENHEAD likes this. -
I'm not a big Billick fan but I do see how that stat can be useful. With regards to Miami I think you have to factor in the their implementation of a new system. I would guess that you can look at what D has provided and expect roughly similar production going forward, but the O is much more of a work in progress. We not only have one fewer game than some teams, but the offense is still finding itself. The run game took a bit to reach its level and didn't have many explosive plays until the last three weeks. The pass O, as usually happens, will take longer. Arians says that it takes a QB about 8 games to get comfortable in a new system and RT hasn't even reached 8 games yet. I think it's reasonable to expect fewer TOs and more explosive plays from a more comfortable QB.
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djphinfan likes this.
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Whilst achieving turnovers and explosive plays and limiting those against is undoubtedly likely to be associated with winning, do the numbers of these stats achieved previously predict that they will occur in the future? I.e. Does Buffalo's high differential actually predict that they will keep producing turnovers and explosive plays as the season progresses?
There is a big difference between being a descriptor and being a predictor. The stats given for likelihood of winning in a single game when explosive plays and turnovers occur may show a strong association with winning, but this toxic differential ranking at face value is only describing what has already occurred. It may of course be the case that there is a relationship with past performance, particularly with explosive plays, but there might also be a luck factor regarding turnovers as well as the expected natural variance in all such occurrences. For the toxic differential to have power as a predictor, more data is required.ASOT, Unlucky 13 and RickyNeverInhaled like this. -
This list will be more relevant by the end of the year. The pretenders will fall off and the up-and-coming teams will build up momentum. I anticipate the BIlls will start falling off with less weapons available. Miami might edge up a little - maybe up to 12 or 13?
RickyNeverInhaled likes this. -
Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member
That is the enigma that is a Philbin coached team, Deej...we just never know how the team is going to come outl... -
RevRick likes this.
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the reason these are important stats is because if you win them both in a game it usually translates to about an extra 10 points in your favor. most teams will win if spotted 10 points per game
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I think historically TO production (both offensively and defensively) tends to be pretty consistent for the year outside of some big switch (like new QB or in our case adapting to a new offensive system). TOs tend to fluctuate year to year so their not generally predictive for next season, but tend to be predictive for the current year.
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Look at our game against Buffalo. Our special teams ratings for the year tanked because of a dropped punt and a few missed tackles on the KO TD by Spiller. Most of the time, those things don't happen, so you can't use them to predict what will go on down the line, for either team. -
You can control your own turnovers though. I may be wrong but I would imagine TO differential pretty closely tracks a teams ability to limit its own turnovers
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Does anyone know how many explosive plays we had today? I know we were +4 on turnovers, but I would like to know where I can get these stats that Billick comes up with so I don't have to wait for him to post them every week.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
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I just want to be in the toxic playoff discussion when it's all said and done.
That's just meRickyNeverInhaled and PhinFan1968 like this. -
Sumlit likes this.
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I hate when people make excuses for their team BUT I'm going to do that myself right now. The Dolphins that you see on the field in November is not the team that started this season, so those statistics just aren't relevant. In the past 2 weeks, for example, we are at +18 (8 turnovers, 10 +20 yard plays) so our slow start is heavily weighing us down. We are much better than the "statistics" show because our offense has come such a long way in 8 weeks.
RickyNeverInhaled and 77FinFan like this. -
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http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/toxic-differential/2014/
I was looking for a website that showed stats for plays of 20+ yards for and against each NFL and I came across this website which credits Brian Billick for creating it but it is diferent than the one I got from Billick on NFL.com. This one defines explosive plays as passing plays of 25+ yards and running plays of 10+ yards for and against each team. I'm not sure how often this gets updated but I think it has obviously included the game we just played because we are 4th on this list!
So now I am not sure if I am going to use this website to update the data after every team has played each week or wait for Billick to come out with his list on NFL.com which i provided in the original post that was posted on NFL.com Wednesday. Let me know what you prefer. -
PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
What a difference one game makes...season stats so far:
Miami #9 in the NFL in scoring offense (26.4 ppg)...#3 in the NFL in scoring defense (18.9 ppg)
#4 in 1st down differential (earned 178 1st downs, allowed 143)...#1 in net turnover points (55 points, #2 is at 39 points)...#7 in turnover differential
#3 in offense efficiency ratio...#3 in team efficiency ratio...#4 in yards per game differential...#4 in scoring differential...#9 in points per game
In the grand scheme of things what does that all mean? I have no clue, but it sure sounds like a top 10 team to me.dolfan22, RickyNeverInhaled, Unlucky 13 and 1 other person like this. -
PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
After the Chargers game, we're #4 in toxic differential.RickyNeverInhaled likes this. -
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dolfan22, Tin Indian, RickyNeverInhaled and 1 other person like this.
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dolfan22 likes this.
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FYI to everyone interested in this thread, I just updated the original post based on a 2nd link that I added. I am waiting on the 1st link to be updated which should happen Wednesday afternoon.
77FinFan likes this. -
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
Miami still showing a strong #2 in team efficiency (with #1 defense)...got quite a bit closer to Denver for the top spot this week.
http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...m-efficiency-rankings-week-9?showall=&start=2 -
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