I was asked a great question in another thread about Atlanta's ground game-----> specifically, how it was different than ours (IE: more favorable to Matt Ryan & the Falcons' offense) despite the general numbers looking comparable.
There's some good stuff here, so I thought it warranted its own thread, especially because I feel Ryan was given more credit than he deserved for Atlanta's success. When you go 13-3, it's understandable to think he was the main reason why, but IMO that's not the case when you re-watch their games and break down some of the stats. He no doubt had some great performances, so I'm not taking that away from him, but by no means do I feel he's playing at a franchise QB level <yet> capable of carrying a team. I also feel Ryan's team put him a much greater position to succeed and serve as a game manager rather than having the entire weight of their success resting on his shoulders.
I'm praying that with the additions and subtractions we've made this offseason, along with the development of our youth, will provide Henne and our offense some of the advantages Ryan was afforded.
Here are some of the significant numbers (and differences), benefits to a QB's success (or lack there of):
Rushing
1st down
Miami: 228 carries....... 786 yards.... 3.4 avg.... 5 TDs...... (2) 20+.... 6 fumbles.... 16 first downs.
Atlanta: 271 carries.... 1055 yards.... 3.9 avg.... 4 TDs...... (6) 20+.... 2 fumbles.... 29 first downs.
Jets:.... 297 carries.... 1297 yards.... 4.4 avg.... 5 TDs...... (6) 20+.... 4 fumbles..... 24 first downs.
Cheifs: 278 carries..... 1533 yards.... 5.5 avg.... 7 TDs..... (11) 20+.... 3 fumbles.... 44 first downs.
When Tied (includes the start of a game)
Miami: 96 carries..... 307 yards.... 3.2 avg.... (0) 20+.... 2 TDs.... 1 fumble.... 19 first downs.
Atlanta:120 carries... 487 yards.... 4.1 avg.... (2) 20+.... 3 TDs.... 1 fumble.... 30 first downs.
First downs rushing
Miami: 91
Atlanta: 111. (20 more first downs is a lot of drive extending).
Rushing during wins
Miami: 246 carries....... 914 yards..... 3.7 avg..... (4) 20+...... 4 TDs.... 130.6 YPG.... 6 fumbles.... 49 first downs.
Atlanta: 431 carries.... 1693 yards.... 3.9 avg.... (10) 20+.... 14 TDs.... 130.2 YPG.... 3 fumbles.... 100 first downs.
Rushing during losses
Miami: 199 carries.... 729 yards.... 3.7 avg.... (1) 20+.... 4 TDs.... 81.0 YPG.... 6 fumbles.... 42 first downs.
Atlanta: 66 carries.... 198 yards.... 3.0 avg.... (2) 20+.... 0 TDs.... 66.0 YPG.... 1 fumble..... 11 first downs.
Fumbles
Miami: 12
Atlanta: 4
Dropped INTs (throwing this one in b/c it extends drives)
Ryan: 6 (some of these saved Matt's butt and ended up allowing Atlanta to win games they would've lost)
Henne: 1
On top of this you have special teams play, field position, and additional TDs scored & allowed to consider:
Total INTs & Recovered Fumbles
Miami: 19..... 1 TD
Atlanta: 31.... 3 TD
(that's a lot of short field opportunities & extra scoring opportunities)
Kickoff Return Avg
Miami: 21.4 (22nd).............. (2) 40+..... 0 TD..... 1 fumble
Atlanta: 26.5 (#1 in NFL)..... (5) 40+..... 1 TD...... 0 fumbles
Punt Return Avg
Miami: 10.5 (13th)............. 0 TD..... 4 fumbles
Atlanta: 12.1 (#5 in NFL).... 1 TD......1 fumble
Punts & FGs Blocked (on offense)
Miami: 4
Atlanta: 2
Field Goals
Miami: 30/41....... 73%.
Atlanta: 28/31..... 90%.
Special Teams TDs allowed:
Miami: 4 (doesn't include the ensuing 10 points scored after 2 blocked punts to NY & NE)
Atlanta: 3
Total Special Teams & Defensive TDs scored:
Miami: 1
Atlanta: 5
****Considering we lost 5 games by a total of 22pts, I'd say these stats are pretty significant.
****Meanwhile, Atlanta won 5 games by 17 pts (I'd say their stats are pretty significant, too).
(If you completely reverse all the above stats (Atlanta's being like Miami's and Miami's being like Atlanta's), we could've very well won 3 of those games, while Atlanta could've lost 3, essentially making us 10-6, while dropping Atlanta to 10-6.)
All these additional TDs allowed, fumbles, missed FGs, blocked punts/FGs, lack of turnovers, lack of Special Team & Defensive TDs, lack of short field opportunities, fewer first downs, and fewer big plays really hurt us.
It seems to me that Matt Ryan was the beneficiary of stuff that Henne wasn't afforded......... and that Henne had significantly more to overcome in order to win...... which can be interpreted as: Atlanta did a lot of winning AS A TEAM, where as Miami too often put the game on Henne's shoulders. I fully expect the above stats to look much better for us this season with the additions & changes we made, which IMO gives us a real chance to win 10+ games and make a playoff run.
Henne's our QB in 2011 whether some of us like it or not...... so rather than complaining about it or throwing out hypothetical present or future replacements, it might behoove us to instead focus on what we can do to put him in more advantageous positions to succeed.
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Roddy White was the biggest beneficiary
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Atlanta went 13-3 and Miami went 7-9. Not because of missed FGs and the ball bouncing the wrong way. REAL TALK!
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Mock me all you want with your witticisms. I read the post. Lots of numbers. So what. I have no faith in our coaches or Henne. 7-9 yet again. REAL TALK!
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Here's an invisible stat that technically has nothing to do with the QB but greatly affects them: Opportunities.
Im going to bet our defense dropped AT LEAST 10 more interceptions than the Falcons defense did. We dropped 19 interceptions last season. That would have been 19 more chances to score (i know for a fact at least 3 of them were pick 6's too but i;ll ignore that for now)
even if we only kick 19 more field goals, thats 57 points we could have scored...If our offense managed to score some tds it could have been 100+ pts.
If our defense can actually catch the ball this year and give our offense some short fields to work with Henne and the offense will benefit greatly.
in short, CATCH THE DAMN BALL DEFENSE!HULKFish, Fin Fan 4 Life and ToddsPhins like this. -
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Ryan is a good QB. However, if Ryan had been drafted by the Dolphins in 2008 his numbers would look very much like Henne's and some here would be calling him a "bust".
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BTW: Mods. Is it possible to create a Eeyore forum? Could we direct them to a forum where they can then can vetch to their heart's content, and the rest of us can discuss football, or whatever?MarinePhinFan, MrClean, Colorado Dolfan and 3 others like this. -
Look, I understand your arguments Todd. And appreciate the work. These are good discussions to have. The numbers would carry more weight if we were discussing Chad's W/L record only. But we're discussing W/L record and bad play.If Chad played well but wasn't able to overcome a bad team, sure. That's Kyle Orton. He remains a mystery. Is he good, is he garbage etc. For now, Chad has played garbage.
Why is it that Ryan and Sanchez soooo lucky with opposing defenses always dropping their INT's, but Chad is so unlucky? Or is chad telegraphing his throws and throwing it right at the defender's bread baskets?
All I'm going to do is hope Chad Henne plays better, I'm rooting for him. He's our QB. I won't be trying to fool myself that he is any where near Ryan, Josh Freeman or other young QBs. That many INT's ain't cutting it.mbmonk, gunn34, phineas64 and 1 other person like this. -
This thread is killing me already. :lol:
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Next thread we'll work on explaining those numbers.
Soon after that the alphabet.......
And within a few weeks, maybe you can work your way up to football. lol.
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And when I wrote 2008 I was just going by the year that Ryan was drafted. My point was, that on this team if Ryan had been playing QB the last 2 seasons I doubt that his and Henne's numbers (or team loss/win records) would be any different. I'd bet that any current QB playing today, sans maybe P. Manning, would be putting up average to below average numbers with a .500 or less winning % on this team the last two seasons.
The idea that a QB makes or breaks a team is provably false. It's been shown time and time again that average (or even below average) QB's win Super Bowls and/or play on consistently competative teams. Football is the ultimate team sport. Unlike baseball or basketball, no one player can make the difference between being a championship team or being a losing team.
Now don't get me wrong, I'd much rather have a Marino than a Dilfer...but who has the ring out of those two? A football TEAM needs to be well rounded. It's typically true that a championship team has a good to great defense, average (or close to average) offense, and a special teams unit capable of giving the offense good field position.ToddsPhins likes this. -
If we can improve some of the areas listed in the OP and Henne can cut back on a few mistakes/INTs, I think we'll be in good situation as a whole. IMO we have a better chance than not of this happening. -
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Matt Ryan is a good QB who plays on a good team.
Henne is a ? QB who has been playing on a bad team. Hopefully this year the team will be as good as the Falcons.jdang307 and ToddsPhins like this. -
You remind me of a dude that was around here a bunch last year..got into some really good pissing contests with Con and was banned twice. Basically would just show up..blabber, and blabber a little louder the next time.
I apologize on behalf of the other forum members if we're devout in our love of breaking down some film, situational statistics, and basically getting down to the nuts and bolts of why certain things unfolded the way they did. If you're not going to add a whole lot to the conversation one way or the other, you can point your google machine to any of the other forums that you wish. Otherwise, shhh, grownups are talking.phineas64 and ToddsPhins like this. -
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Annnnd with the 29,349th pick................ :chuckle: -
Even these stat obsessed experts know Matt Ryan is elite and Henne is below average.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb
REAL TALK! -
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Woodshed, here you come.phineas64 and MarinePhinFan like this. -
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