I've been looking for a thread where I can say in all sincerity, I hope they both lose.

 

Barring injury or collapse the Dolphins are pretty much in a race for the final playoff spot with Buffalo, Houston, KC, and whoever finishes 2nd in the North.

 

Less than 15% now :swimmer:

 

So if I'm interpreting it correctly then NE's winning this week has brought us down from 15.0% to 13.8%.

Had the Jets pulled off a win, our odds would've increased to 19.8%.

If Cincinnati wins the game vs. Indy, Baltimore wins vs. Atlanta, and Buffalo wins vs. Minnesota, then we're down to 12.3%.

If Miami loses to Chicago on top of those outcomes, we're down to 7.9%.

Right now the only one of those outcomes that is not favorited is Cincinnati coming out ahead of Indianapolis. If everything goes as it's favorited (Chicago 3.5 point favorites over Miami, Indy 3.0 point favorites over Cincy, Baltimore 7.0 point favorites over Atlanta, Buffalo 6.0 point favorites over Minnesota)...then Miami walks out of the weekend with 8.7% playoff chances.

At that point we talk draft, right? Or do we detour to debating potential head coaches and THEN talk draft? Probably the latter.

 

Gee..well there a 100 percent chance we know what you think is gonna happen this weekend...lol

And yes..head coaching changes first..woulndt that impact our draft?

 

It's going to be such an exciting off-season!

 

I'm so sick of being excited and hopeful during the off-season.

 

Well...thats cool...

Once we win, we will have a slightly better then 20 percent chance of making the playoffs.

You gotta think that makes a win the following week HUGE as far as playoff implications go...and its at Jacksonville.

 

Head Coaches first please....we have to go all in on Harbaugh's..I really feel that we have enough talent to compete at an extremely high level if we have Harbaugh..not to mention if we have another good off season like Hickey just had.

 

I don't know if Ross the Clown will fire Philbin if he wins 7 or 8. I think we have to finish with 6 wins or less for him to be fired.

 

I take this with a huge grain of salt. Its like the metrics that show your % chances of winning during an NBA game or NFL game. They are interesting but can often be horribly wrong anyway.

 

How can a probability be wrong?

 

well...for example...

Whats Indys probability that they make the playoffs right now?

94%

Denvers is 96%

What happens if either team looses their starting QB to an injury?

Probability only works if all things stay the same. If all the teams continue to play the way they do now.....yada yada yada....

Only at week 7....the probability that all of those things staying the same....is pretty slim.

 

No, probability inherently means there is a probability of those things happening, hence Denver having a 4% chance of not making the playoffs.

 

Ok...I get you...that makes sense.

 

Probabilities shouldn't really be considered wrong...nor should they be considered holy writ. Impossible to incorporate every possible factor. They exist only to make simple prediction.

 

at this point we talk about another QB & HC

 

Maybe make a trade or two before the deadline and try to improve our power in the 2015 draft, or pickup a player at a position of need.

For example: Trade Finnegan for a late round pick to a contending team with injuries at CB, giving the youngsters a chance develop. I'd do the same with Delmas but I'd expect a higher comp because of age and salary. Let Taylor and Aikens and Thomas get the playing time.