In a perfect world, this regime would have our ground game gaining 4 yards every first down to keep us in our conservative, low-risk, high percentage passing game approach. IMO that's how we should be looking at our QBs: how they would perform if our offense is working to the desired game plan.
To me that means, looking at a QB's 1st down performance, 2nd & 7 or less yards, 3rd and 3-7 yards, and redzone b/c these are the situations we need to be in for this offense to really thrive. I grabbed the closest stats that are available.
Here's Carson compared to what we currently have. It could be argued that statistically (through almost an entire season) that Henne is better suited for "our" offense if <and when> we have a ground game that's picking up positive yards on 1st down like we aspire for.
1st down
Palmer: 85 QB Rating, 61%, 7.2 ave, 10 TDs, 7 INTs, 29% 1st downs per attempt, 1538 yards
Henne: 89 QB Rating, 68%, 8.4 ave, 5 TDs, 6 INTs, 34% 1st downs per attempt, 1478 yards
2nd & <6
Palmer: 128 QB Rating, 69%, 7.0 ave, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, 67% 1st downs
Henne: 107 QB Rating, 75%, 6.9 ave, 1 TD, 0 INTS, 71% 1st downs
3rd & 3-7
Palmer: 79 QB Rating, 57%, 5.2 ave, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 38% 1st downs
Henne: 119 QB Rating, 70%, 8.1 ave, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 63% 1st downs
Redzone
Palmer: 86 QB Rating, 54%, 18 TDs, 2 INTs, 29% TDs per attempt
Henne: 89 QB Rating, 57%, 10 TDs, 2 INTs, 22% TDs
Trailing by 7 pts or less
Palmer: 60 QB Rating, 52%, 5.0 ave, 3 TDs, 4 INTs, 26% 1st downs, 576 yards
Henne: 90 QB Rating, 67%, 7.3 ave, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 36% 1st downs, 1437 yards
Again, this is a Devil's advocate argument. Feel free to discuss.
Added consideration:
# of injuries
Henne: 1
Palmer: 89 (I'm not a fan of signing a guy who has a higher amount of injuries than QB rating.... just sayin)
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I still think we can be successful with Henne if he wins the starting job next year, but regardless of the #'s I'd be more comfortable going into next year with Palmer at QB.
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Well, the thing with Palmer is adding TO was simply terrible for his play.
I'd prefer Kyle Orton over Palmer, but either way "if" Sparano survives heading into 2011 with Henne at the helm is just coaching suicide, sure Henne may turn it around, but we cannot know that will happen.gunn34 likes this. -
Orton or Palmer over the henne
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I'm much more of a Palmer fan than Orton. -
I've been seriously thinking about looking into a thread that hinges on the "Who" Ireland could sign cheaply and would help from Day 1 as "if" Sparano is kept, to then just write the checks seems unlikely to happen so Irish will have to hit the bargain bin as Soliai and McD and Richie I are all also up for new contracts..how much cash is there to go around to sign them?
Trading for Palmer should also be looked at from a financial point of view and how it would effect the entire roster. -
As for TP's premise, that is one of the problems with Stats, they tell a part of the story, not the whole story, for example Palmer has 11 int's on targets of TO..11... -
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And the patriots do not allow their top talent to walk without grabbing some draft picks for them, Mankins is the #2 fantasy behind Andrew Luck. -
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I prefer Orton simply because he is younger, has no history of catastrophic injuries and has a lesser dollar amount attached to his contract, though it would make sense to package Henne in a trade for Palmer, the Broncos would figure to have no interest in Henne. -
Sorry fellas but I feel your underestimating Palmer big time. Sure he has had some issues but he has been in the soap opera that is Cinncy....there isn't a throw he can't make or a system he can't flourish in.
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I honestly think Henne will have a good offseason. When all is said and done, I still think he progressed this season rather than regressed. If he had been given any help whatsoever on offense over the course of the season, I really don't think his or our numbers would look nearly as bad. We won some tough games this season, and we lost some tough games this season. And teams that were supposed to be cupcakes ended up surprising. All in all, I'm not all that down on how things went considering we are 1) tied for 28th in rushing TDs with 8 and 2) tied for 30th in takeaways. I consider those to be two very important stats for our team. We failed miserably at both of them.
I think the turnovers will work itself out. We're talking about a Top 5 defense that can best be described as a hatchling at the moment, both in terms of youth in personnel and in terms of time in Mike Nolan's system. The experience, confidence, and discipline will get there. I trust that. Where I think we need a more drastic approach is in the run game. Get the line sorted out. Get some speed (Kory Sheets?). And get a new stud with younger legs than Brown and Williams (Mark Ingram?).
And I hope we move on a new OC early. I want someone in there early who can immediately be working with Henne and later with Palmer or whoever else is ultimately brought in to compete. -
My main concern would be how would we acquire him. Ideally Cincy won't want his contract, and they cut him loose. However, I'd imagine they'd try and trade him for something before that happens. -
Give him a good running game here (not what we had this year), and I have very little doubt he'd make us into a contender. -
I really don't want to see Palmer. Orton in a heartbeat.
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Orton looked bad before Mcdaniels, not to say he sucks but the system was good
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Tough to know how I feel about that so far out from the draft, but if it were to cost us Ingram, for instance, I'd hope that we really got a damn good football player in the 2nd. It seems to be a pretty crap year for TEs. So maybe we grab one of those WRs for our new OC who happens to like 3 and 4 WR sets? Or is there a RB that I could stomach, even with my man crush on Ingram? Maybe. -
Bottomline I would gladly have the old Palmer, but this new version is really underwhelming. -
Either way though, I do not value draft picks as much as I value solutions, whomever they go after I desire no excuses to be made, just land the solution and do not over value the draft choices or contract it takes to get it done.
my .02, we should package Henne and our 1st for the bengals 2nd and a 5th if they identify Palmer as "the guy", resign Thigpen, draft a developmental Qb though truth be told Brandstater is an interesting prospect imho.
Bengals would receive:
-Starting Qb while Cam Newton develops
-second #1 pick
-Palmer's contract is off of the books
Dolphins would receive:
-Starting caliber Qb
-basically a late #1 pick as once you get around pick #29 there is not a whole lot of difference in talent between the #29 pick and the #37 pick the bengals have. -
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I'm sure his firing has humbled him, matters not because he will be in KC.
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Orton in Denver I can see because of Tebow. Especially if Tebow beats SD tomorrow. Possibly even seeing Washington saying goodbye to McNabb. -
Interesting thing about Orton, each of the last 3 yrs his Td to int ratio has improved, starting in Chicago.
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As for the shakeup, the most talked about names of players that will be gone, or won't be re-signed are:
Cedric Benson
Terrell Owens
Chad Ochocinco
Dhani Jones
Andre Smith
Robert Geathers -
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My theory for this move is:
Mike Brown will draft Cam Newton making Qb the most expensive position on his team and he will try to avoid that situation via trading Palmer and finding a Veteran to play who can play care taker whilst Newton learns the rudiments of a NFL offense, that is where Chad Henne steps in. -
ToddsPhins likes this.
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As for drafting Newton, I just don't see it. Not in Cincinnati and not the way Brown operates. I think he'll do whatever it takes to keep Carson, barring hell freezing over and Brown relinquishing control of football operations to a GM or HC. It'd have to be a pretty sweet trade for him to do it. He loves Carson. -
If you remember Brandon Marshall and McDaniels squared off on issues outside of strictly contractual stuff.
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