All I would want to know is which adjustments would have to be made to Henne's stats to get him to a 85+ QB rating and preferrably to a 90 rating.
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higher completion percentage, less INT's, more TD's, less sacks.
Here is where the calc comes from
http://blscott.home.mindspring.com/NFL-QB.pdf
Found this calcualtor
http://www.csgnetwork.com/quarterbackratecalc.htmlNoCalFinFan, Paul 13, dolfan7171 and 1 other person like this. -
??????????????
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I am talking about the actual adjustments to his stats as in "take away 2 INT's" add 22 completions"...etc...
He is currently at 74.6 I believe... -
oh.. Well I just posted a calculator.. not sure how accurate it is, I just found it, but you can give it a trydolfan7171 and Section126 like this.
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Thanks!
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I was just thinking about how passer rating is a useless stat. Sometimes Henne throws the ball away to avoid a sack or because no one is open. Smart play, but it lowers his passer rating. Plus, how many of Henne's INTs were not his fault? 3? 4? You take those away and his rating is significantly higher. I hate that so many people measure QB's nowadays based on their passer rating. It just doesn't tell the whole story and IMO isn't fair sometimes to the QB.
dolfan7171 and Frumundah Finnatic like this. -
The 90+ passers complete 65% of their passes and throw twice as many TDs as Ints.
dolfan7171 likes this. -
Interesting that calculator... if a qb goes 10 for 20 for 250 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT's, they have the same QBR if they go 15 for 20 150 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT's.
dolfan7171 likes this. -
That definitely doesn't seem right. By right I mean equal. I guess there is a huge emphasis on comp %.
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OK. Did some numbers crunching for you. (I was interested too) I've been drinking so bear with me.:up:
Henne's current qb rating is 74.4 Instead of making you read through all of the scenarios, the best is a rating of 86.403 and the worst is 77.470 with a few realistic adjustments. Now to the nitty gritty! I added 12 yds per assumed completed pass since Henne is avg 10.6 yds/catch. I figure int's are on longer throws. Also I assumed either 4 or 5 of his int's were tipped and not his fault.
1) if 4 of his int's were complete: 79.481 rating
2) if 4 of his int's were incomplete: 77.470 rating
3) if 4 of his int's were comp and adding Ted Ginn's 62 yd TD vs. Houston: 80.854
4) if 4 of his int's were incomplete adding Ginn's td vs. Houston: 78.456
5) if 5 of his int's were complete: 80.177
6) if 5 of his int's were incomplete: 79.210
7) if 5 of his int's were complete w/ Ginn 62 yd td vs Houston: 81.550
8) if 5 of his int's were incomplete w/ ginn 62 yd td vs Houston: 80.583
9) if 5 of his int's were complete including the int in the endzone to Ricky vs Houston and the Ginn 62 yd td vs Houston:82.033
10) if, of his 5 int's, 4 were incomplete but his int to Ricky in the endzone vs Houston was a td and also including the Ginn 62 yd td vs Houston: 80.138
11) I added 22 completions because of drops and gave him a total of 2900 yds with 12 td and 8 int (including Ginn's 62 yd td vs. Houston: 86.403.
Thanks for giving me something to do tonight while drinking!:up:Frumundah Finnatic, JDelenne, dolfan7171 and 5 others like this. -
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the fact that he is close to 75% in year 1, i am pretty happy ....
he has thrown about 3-4 really boneheaded INTs - so if you could take those away. Give him about 20 more completions (easy drops by WRs), i'd like to see where that takes him.
with a dominant WR, or at least a tall WR for the EZ, his TDs will improve at least 4-5 more.
these are conservative #s, but should get him pretty close to at least 80+dolfan7171 likes this. -
If you take away INTs that "weren't his fault", you'd need to add INTs where the defensive player dropped the ball. Just sayin.......
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By my calculations Henne needs to be at about a 60% completion rate and 7.0 YPA, so with those numbers he needs the following TD/INT to hit an 85 and 90 rating respectively.
85 rating: 18 TDs 10 INTs or about a 1.8/1 TD/INT ratio;
90 rating: 24 TDs 10 INTs or about a 2.4/1 TD/INT ratio.
And while I'm not a fan of the QBR b/c it seems to reward (or at least not penalize) QBs who take sacks, it is a stat that correlates with wins. The most correlated stat is TOs, followed by offensive passing efficiency then QBR and then defensive pass efficiency. The top three had a strong correlation then there's a bit of a drop off to defensive pass efficiency (about 20%+) and then a huge drop off to all the other stats.dolfan7171 and Section126 like this. -
True, but then you need to add in all the passes the receivers dropped, and that is A LOT. Not to mention how many times did Henne's arm get us to the goal line only to have a RB punch it in? Quite a bit. That's why the passer rating is such a garbage stat. It doesn't tell the whole story.dolfan7171 likes this.
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WHAT!!!!!???? add this drop that yada yada - Garbage stat i think not - the good qb's have good ratings and the bad qb's have bad ratings - look at the leaders you can't show otherwise
look Henne wont have a good rating until he learns he dont have to throw a 100 mph laser every damn pass, thats a big reason miami had quite a few drops and sailed passes - if he fixes that the rating will take care of itself -
The QBR is far from perfect but it's not a garbage stat. Teams with QBs that have high QBRs win more often than those that don't by a substantial margin. Examples of garbage stats are ones like ranking offenses and defenses based on yards. I wade through post after post from people using those stats to justify what needs to be fixed and they are useless. They have almost zero correlation with winning and losing.
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Just for the record Henne doesn't have a 75% QBR because QBR is not calculated as a percentage. If one wanted to give Henne a % that correlates to his QB rating, it would be a rating of about 47% (74.4./158.3*100).