UPDATED:
Weather:
Irrelevant - Vikings play in a dome - U.S. Bank Stadium
Preview from a Vikings perspective from Eric J Thompson at the DailyNorseman - (full piece click here):
It sort of reads like a mirror image of the Dolphins in some places. More than likely one of these two teams will overcome these difficulties and one will not, one will head upwards, the other downwards. Or at least, that's how we could be looking at this game after the regular season...
Excerpts:
O-Line Issues
"Hopefully Kevin Stefanski will be able to use his familiarity with the team and Zimmer to employ an offensive philosophy that’s more effective in the short time he has this season.
It won’t be easy for him though. Nobody has been pressured more than Cousins this season, and it appears that he’s starting to hear footsteps in the past couple games. Cousins had some good numbers against pressure earlier in the season, but we went 0 for 7 in the nine dropbacks he was pressured against Seattle. Getting pressured only nine times is practically a beach vacation compared to some of the other games this season, but Cousins seemed to let the early pressure he faced from the Seahawks affect him the rest of the game.
I can’t defend a lot of what Cousins did on Monday, but some of that pressure the offensive line allowed was pretty terrible. Miscommunication and poor execution continue to plague the line at inopportune times. This near-interception that ended the first drive was brutal. Seattle didn’t dial up a very exotic blitz, yet Akeem King was able to waltz in to clobber Cousins while Pat Elfleinended the play looking for someone to block.
It’s plays like these that make you wonder just how much losing Tony Sparano—who was the Head Coach of the Dolphins the last time these two teams met in Minnesota—has impacted this team. Multiple people close to the team believe that the effect of his passing can’t be overstated."
Get the QB Mobile? Sound familiar?
"When your quarterback is seeing ghosts because his offensive line can’t get their assignments right often enough, perhaps you might want to call some plays that help ease the pressure on both parties. DeFilippo actually did that a couple times with play action and designed rollouts on Monday. Lo and behold, they actually worked!"
According to Pro Football Focus, Cousins is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt when using play action and 6.7 when he doesn’t. Yet the Vikings run play action on only 18.6% of his dropbacks. That’s tied for 30th among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season. You don’t have to run for 150 yards a game for play action to be effective either; simply getting the defense to hesitate for a split-second can make a big difference.
But too often, especially on short yardage situations, DeFilippo’s play calls didn’t do the struggling offense any favors. When you combine all the problematic areas of the offense, you get the rock/paper/scissors conundrum of ineptitude that resulted in a major coaching change with just three games remaining in a playoff push.
Bryan Baldinger had an excellent two-minute breakdown...
...that further illustrates how Stefanski will have his work cut out for him. And although Cousins certainly gave the haters plenty of ammunition in Foxborough and Seattle, I tend to agree with Sam Monson’s view of the overall situation. The familiar trope of lamenting Cousins’ $84 million contract is nowhere near the biggest problem the Vikings are facing. The offensive line’s poor play has exacerbated the volatile play that Cousins has been known for throughout his career. He hasn’t lived up to the contract yet, but his deal isn’t destroying the team’s ability to compete nearly as much as the line is."
And the Dolphins?
"If the Vikings offense hopes to get back on track at home this week under Stefanski, there are worse teams to face than the Miami Dolphins. Miami is 29th in yards allowed, 27th in weighted defensive DVOA, and they’ll likely be missing their best cornerback, Xavien Howard. Howard is tied for the league lead in interceptions with seven. If he misses his second straight game with a knee injury, you have to like the matchup of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen against Minkah Fitzpatrick, Bobby McCain, and Torry McTyer. Tom Brady and the Patriots carved up the Dolphins for 344 yards through the air last week.
Miami’s defense has been giving up yards in bunches to teams other than the Pats too. The Dolphins have allowed over 400 yards of offense in eight of their 13 games this season, including their last three. Miami gives up explosive passing plays at an 11% rate, which is better than only the lowly Oakland Raiders this season.
The Dolphins pass rush has been pretty quiet this season as well. They have only 22 sacks on the year, which again would be the worst in the league if it wasn’t for Oakland. Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn will definitely need to be accounted for on the edges, but neither player is the force they once were. Nothing is guaranteed with the Vikings offensive line, but Miami is a much better matchup than many of the Vikings’ previous opponents."
Match Up on Kiko?
"After watching film on the Dolphins defense, there’s one potential matchup that has to have the Vikings salivating—getting Dalvin Cook involved in the passing game against linebacker Kiko Alonso. Alonso does have three interceptions this year and leads the Dolphins in tackles by a mile, but opponents are 51 of 71 for 622 yards and four touchdowns when targeting him this season. If Stefanski can conjure ways to get Cook in open space, it could result in some big plays."
Dolphin Strength?
"While Miami’s defense has its share of flaws, they do have one major strength: forcing a lot of turnovers. They’re tied for third in the league with 25 takeaways and tied for seventh with a +8 turnover margin. I’m pretty sure I don’t need to go into detail on how that could come into play on Sunday."
Dolphins' Offense?
"The Dolphins offense has been a lot less predictable. Getting Ryan Tannehill back in the lineup the past three games has been a boost, but their week-to-week performances have been all over the map. They had the crazy overtime win against the Bears where they had hundreds of yards after the catch, and they moved the ball efficiently enough to be able to steal the game against New England on the final play last week. But despite some fairly impressive overall numbers—especially when it comes to his 8.1% touchdown rate—Tannehill has yet to break 300 yards in a game this season. He does have some decent targets at his disposal; DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills are solid options on the outside and Danny Amendola can still be a headache in the slot. But the Vikings secondary appears to match up with them pretty well, especially if Trae Waynescan return from his concussion this week.
Tannehill has also been sacked seven times in the last two weeks. Laremy Tunsil and Ja’wuan James are a good tackle pairing, but the middle of their line can be shaky. The Patriots had a lot of success on stunts and pressure up the gut last Sunday, something the Vikings should be able to replicate.
The most consistent weapon for the Dolphins offense has been their rushing attack, led by the Benjamin Button of running backs, Frank Gore. The 35-year-old Gore is still chugging along to the tune of 4.7 yards per carry this season. Kenyan Drake has 463 yards rushing of his own on 102 carries while being second on the team in targets and receptions. After giving up 374 yards on the ground over the past two contests, the Vikings will need to have a better performance against the run on Sunday."
To Close
"While the Dolphins might be fortunate to be at 7-6, they’re far from terrible. And you already know how the Vikings have performed against teams with a winning record this season. Hopefully last week’s debacle in Seattle will prove to be the nadir of the season and not an ominous sign of how the year will peter out.
“November Rain” by Guns N’ Roses:
And when your fears subside
And shadows still remain (oh yeah)
I know that you can win one
‘Cause there’s no one left to blame
So never mind the offense
We still can find a way
’Cause nothin’ lasts forever
Even cold December pain.
Firing John DeFilippo won’t be the healing salve that cures all the offensive ills that have plagued the Vikings this season, but perhaps it will be the wake-up call to get things back on track. I don’t think the Dolphins are nearly as good as their record—they’re still -55 in point differential. If the Vikings can’t win this one at home this week, I don’t want to envision the horrors of Twitter and our comments sections. I believe we’ll see the purple bounce back in a big way on Sunday and keep the virtual riots at bay for now.
Besides, we know better than anyone that winning on a miraculous final play is fun and all, but it doesn’t exactly bode well for the following week.
Prediction
Vikings 27, Dolphins 16"
Preview from Oddsshark:
"VIKINGS HAVE BEEN AN EXCELLENT UNDER BET AT HOME
by Stephen Campbell
COUSINS SIMPLY HASN’T BEEN ABLE TO BEAT GOOD TEAMS
The Vikings went into Seattle and weren’t able to stop Russell Wilson and company, as Minnesota fell to the Seahawks 21-7 in Monday Night Football while failing to cover as 3-point underdogs. The offense simply hasn’t been right all season long, and while Kirk Cousins’ numbers look good on paper, he hasn’t lived up to the lucrative contract he signed with the club in the offseason. In light of the setback to the Seahawks, Cousins is now 4-24 SU against winning teams in his NFL career.
Minnesota has been a completely different team at home compared to on the road when it comes to covering the spread. The Vikings are 10-2 SU in their past 12 at U.S. Bank Stadium and have gone 31-12-1 ATS in their past 44 home contests. The UNDER has been cashing in that span, evidenced by Minny going below the closing total in eight of its last 10 in the Gopher State with an average combined score of 39.9 points.
"Fresh off an improbable last-second 34-33 victory over the New England Patriots, the 7-6 SU Miami Dolphins are riding a high entering a Week 15 road contest with the Minnesota Vikings that has massive playoff implications. Sportsbooks opened the Vikes as 7-point home favorites with a total of 44.
DOLPHINS ARE IN TOUGH TO REPLICATE LAST WEEK’S WILD ENDING
The Dolphins’ series of laterals that led to a 69-yard touchdown from Kenyan Drake with time expired will likely go down as the craziest play of the NFL season. The win was Miami’s second in a row, and the Fins now sit tied with the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans in the thick of the AFC wild-card race.
Miami gave up 421 total yards and allowed the Patriots to go 9-for-16 on third downs in yet another game where the defense failed to step up to the plate. The Dolphins defense ranks 26th in the NFL at 25.6 points allowed per game and is 29th with 401.1 yards allowed per game. Miami has been poor on the road, going 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in its past 11 away from home. The Dolphins are also 5-12 SU in their past 17 on the road after winning consecutive home games.
MY PICK: TAKE THE UNDER
The Vikings have been inconsistent both on the field and at the betting window in 2018, and I’m not sure how I feel about laying a touchdown at home against a Dolphins team coming off a huge win over their division rivals. Instead, I’m going to stay away from the spread and back the UNDER here.
The Fins have struggled to put up points away from Miami, and the Vikings defense has looked like its dominant self over the past few months. Taking the UNDER is basically fading this struggling Vikings offense, and that’s something I’m more than OK with after last week’s debacle against the Seahawks."
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They're on the road vs a tough, re-energized Seahawks team. Hopefully they get beat up enough to make things a bit easier for the Dolphins on Sunday.
KeyFin, Kud_II, mbsinmisc and 1 other person like this. -
KeyFin, resnor and adamprez2003 like this.
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That's life in the NFL. On the other hand, the Vikings will be desperate for a win versus Miami if they lose to the Seahawks tonight. Of course, the Vikings should be desperate to win every remaining game if they have any hope of catching Da Bears for the division crown.
I think Miami needs to go 10-6 to get that last wildcard spot, but will be alive mathematically even with a loss to Minnesota (for at least another week). -
I never like to evaluate coaches and players on one game, buuuuuuut my God doesn't it feel like Gase and Tannehill are at a crossroads in their careers in Miami. If they win, I feel like their momentum could snowball in the next two weeks, have a possible playoff run, and save their jobs.
If they lose, momentum fizzles, and we move from being in a prime position to make the playoffs to being on the outside. We probably finish 8-8ish. Gase and RT's futures becomes murkier. One or both could be done in Miami.
For the record, if my future was on the line, I would want to make Drake a much bigger part of the game plan. I still don't think they use him as much as they should.josh, Pauly, KeyFin and 1 other person like this. -
You think if we lose to the Vikings that we split with Buffalo and the Jags?
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Irishman, texanphinatic and resnor like this.
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Bunch of fair weather fans who don't even know when to make noise.Irishman likes this. -
As for Ryan Tannehill, unless he stinks up the joint for the rest of this season, he should get another year as well. He missed last year with injury and has had his struggles this season, but he has played to a high level these past three games. Ok the yardage output isn't amazing, but he's thrown 8 TDs to 1 INT, completed a high percentage of passes, and his QB rating has been above a hundred in all three games. He even started the season well in the first three games before his production fell off in weeks 4 and 5, but that could have been injury related. I think most on here agree that Ryan Tannehill isn't a top tier quarterback, but he has shown enough this season to warrant a chance to be our starting quarterback next season. Now that's not to say we shouldn't look long and hard at quarterbacks like Will Grier, Dwayne Haskins, or Drew Lock (etc). There are options if we pick in the middle of the first round, and even options on day two. So we could pick someone in the middle of the first round, or we could trade down and acquire more picks and still select a quarterback, or we could trade back into the first round for a quarterback, or just simply take someone on day two. The team has options and can be patient with any young quarterback because of Tannehill.
For me, both Gase and Tannehill will be here next season. I feel both deserve that extra season. -
Against Minnesota, Burke better have our defense play smart, gap responsible run defense, especially up the middle, our weakness. We need Raekwon McMillan to play like a vet and not a rookie. Minnesota's offensive line is as bad as ours so I think whoever has a better defensive performance will win. Bet the under. This is going to be a slugfest. We need X Man back
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Irishman likes this.
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Irishman likes this.
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Strangely enough, this is starting to feel like a "repeat" of the 2016 season. We fired two linemen, the team got a spark and off to the races we went. I think we somehow win all three and stay in the playoff conversation right up until the very end.
Here's something else to think about though- we're 2 games behind the Pats and they're traveling to Pittsburgh this week....one of the other few places where they struggle. If we win and the Pats lose, we're just one game back. And the Pats two final games are NY and Buffalo...you'd expect them to win both convincingly. But those two teams are still playing for something and just like us last Sunday, that's going to be their Super Bowl games. If either of them beats NE and we both finish 10-6.....guess who takes the division? The team that's 5-1 in the conference....the Miami Dolphins!
LOL, I'm not saying we'll win the division...I think I saw odds of 2.4%. But if NE loses to Pitt then I'll definitely watch the Pats play the Bills and Jets with enthusiasm! And of course, we need to handle business as well. -
Or we crush the Vikings and the Jags and get blown out by the Bills.
Whichever one will crush my soul the most.MonstBlitz, danmarino and KeyFin like this. -
I worry about Minnesota. I really do. We are 3-3 lifetime against the Vikings in Minnesota and we are winless against the Vikings lifetime in Minnesota in the month of December...and they're coming off a 2 game losing streak against the Seahawks and the Patriots. Beat up yes, but battle hardened against perennial playoff teams.
This is a VERY dangerous game for the Dolphins!Irishman, ripper1961, adamprez2003 and 1 other person like this. -
I've got zero expectations for any of the remaining games - other than hoping we can sweep the Bills. Just going to sit and watch and enjoy (hopefully).
This has been a banged up season that's been something of a roller-coaster and I just don't see how we can be confident of anything, one way or another. Then with the Vikings coming up, they've been a volatile team this season, so we could be in for a rough ride or a welcome mat. -
I think Gase is going to make the running game the focal point of the offense and that's when we play our best, IMO.
Vikings are going to be a very tough game, though, that's for sure.Irishman, bigballa2102 and KeyFin like this. -
Ive seen this movie so many times its getting tough to swallow, im so nervous for Sundays game, for some reason we have an epic win then all of a sudden next game with confidence we get blown out the water. I surely hope this does not happen again. Minn got screwed last night but didn't look like a very good team they gave up 200 yards on the ground so my expectation is gase should pound gore again and again i think Miami's running game is way better than Seattle's. Seattle just has a tendency to run the ball alot more than most teams. they ran the ball 42 times last night. I would expect gorilla to get somewhere around 20 touches and drake around 10-15, and please tell RT that number 22 smith is no joke on Minnesota and try not to leave our receivers in his path.
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when we run RT succeeds, RPO and play actions onnly work when you can run the ball. If we cant run RT will struggle.Irishman likes this. -
If the offense can play the same I agree.
The defense MUST get better.Irishman and Surfs Up 99 like this. -
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I do wonder if we gain or lose momentum from that crazy finish. It seems logical that such a play would leave you kind of on a high and ready to run through a wall, but the reality often seems the opposite. We only need look at our opponent Minnesota here who came off their own Miracle play against the Saints in the playoffs last year looking super flat and worn out and were handled relatively easily. I suppose it's due to having to come down off the emotional high at some point and that often leading to a cratering I suppose?
That said, I think many of the intangibles are setting up for us. Vikings are dragging and about as beat up as we are. They have the short week. They are coming off a loss where they got dominated. Their playoff hopes are sagging. On the other hand, they are still in the lead for the NFC 6th seed, and they will be at home desperate to come out and win.
Definitely doesn't look to be the "near sure" L that most would have predicted at the start of the season, it's a very winnable game.Irishman likes this. -
If the skill positions of the offense is clicking, it is possible that they could help us ride through these choppy waters.
But here is the thing, if they can't, you might be looking at a Todd Bowles situation in New York. He, like Gase, has been iffy over the course of his tenure. The more aggressive rebuild, which in fairness the Jets really need, has at least temporarily caused them to go in reverse. Bowles, like Gase, probably does not have the cachet to hold his job beyond this year. Unfortunately, for both Bowles and the Jets, they both probably should have realized that this was coming at the end of last year. And in all honesty, it would have been in the best interests of both parties if they had fired Bowles at the end of last year. Getting rid of Bowles after a mediocre performance of an aging team would've probably put him on the shortlist of many teams.
This is why I think that Gase is at a crossroads. If you think that Gase and Tannehill are good enough to weather the storm of a purge of aging talent and an influx of younger, more inexperienced talent, it makes sense to keep him.
But if you think that the offense simply is not that good, and the job is too massive for Gase to withstand, it would be best to part ways with him now. Going back to the Jets analogy. Todd Bowles is now responsible for the selection of talent for "the next guy." What the next guy needs/wants may be very different from what Bowles wants and values.
The next three weeks should speak volumes to where we are as a team. If we can't look impressive on offense vs. the Bills and the Jags with the playoffs on the line, we probably don't have what we need. If we look and play respectably against these two teams especially, I, a harsh critic of Gase, could be swayed to allow the experiment to continue - with some strings attached.djphinfan likes this. -
If Russell Wilson is a hall of famer, Ryan Tannehill will be Dan f****** Marino on Sunday...
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As hungry as the offense looked it still scares me the defensive side from the gameplan down looks lost this far into the season.KeyFin likes this. -
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