Started out with picks: #008, #042, #072, #073, #103, #145, #196, #215
Ended up with picks: #008, #021, #091, #138, #145, #164, #196, #215

Trades
1. Dolphins give picks #042, #072 and #103 (798 points) for pick #021 (800 points)
2. Dolphins give pick #073 (225 points) for picks #091, #138 and #164 (198.8 points)

Trade Comments: Initially it looks like I got hosed on the trade down from #073 to #091, however it should be noted that trade downs were much more desirable than trade ups throughout the Draft. Teams trading up generally did so on the cheap. When my trade with the Ravens from #073 to #091 was announced, the Colts GM, who picked 10 spaces above my #073 complained that if he knew the Ravens were offering that kind of price tag he'd have moved from pick #064 to #091 at the same price. Early bird got the worm. On the other hand this suggests I got hosed for paying near full chart value on my move up from #042 to #021. I can only say that this was a judgment call on my part, that teams wanted to trade down but not necessarily 20+ picks down and out of the 1st round altogether. I also needed the Bengals to agree to this trade before I made my pick at #008 overall. I needed to overwhelm him with value nd get him to agree, and actually felt lucky he accepted chart value.

Strategy Comments: As alluded to, I negotiated the trade up from #042 to #021 BEFORE I took Quinton Coples at #008. This was imperative. I knew the Cleveland Browns GM was very open to taking Weeden at #022, so I knew that no matter what, I needed to be picking before him. I was willing to accept the risk that the Browns trade up for fear of me trading up, but I was not willing to just blindly take Coples without knowing if I could successfully make a trade. If the Bengals hadn't agreed, I had an offer on the table from the Eagles and would have taken that, then grabbed Weeden at #015. Once I agreed with the Bengals, I requested we keep the trade a secret until his pick came up at #021 overall, because I did not want to induce the Browns to trade up to #020 or earlier.

I sent out smoke screens with the aim of convincing the Browns' General Manager and Assistant GMs that I was not convinced they would take Weeden at #022, but recognized they could take Brandon at #037 and therefore I aimed to trade up from #042 into "the late 20's or 30's". I sent out Twitter requests for offers from interested GMs to this effect. I also, at one point, jumped on phone text and pretended to have accidentally botched ta DM to my assistant GM, writing "DN PFF_Alex Have you heard back on #29? He wont take BW at #22." I then went on twitter 10 minutes later and deleted the tweet, to further the perception that I'd accidentally aired a private message into public. Later, when I got Weeden at #021 overall, the Browns GM and AGMs all admitted that 1) They were going to take Weeden at #022, 2) They were in negotiations with #020 overall on a move up because they feared I might trade with the Bengals, 3) They scuttled thales trade talks in large part because of my smoke screen tweets, including the 'accidental' tweet that I deleted, which they all saw before I deleted it.

As for my trade down at #073, I wanted to recoup some of the picks I had lost trading up for Weeden, and I had a feeling Broyles would still be there at #091. I personally have a little more trouble seeing value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of this Draft as opposed to the 4th and 5th rounds. Therefore, I really didn't see much issue in trading UP and out of the 2nd round, and trading DOWN and nearly out of the 3rd round.

The Picks

#008. DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina - The Dolphins need a permanent fixture at defensive end opposite Cameron Wake. Coples is the only elite end prospect in this Draft, having shown the consistent ability to dominate blockers and command extra attention. Production issues were more systemic than talent-driven. Very safe, high-floor prospect. Even if he does not develop into a premier pass rusher, which I firmly believe he will, he will have been more than worth his rookie contract money due to his ability against the run. Questions of effort are extremely overblown at this point, with plenty of film-based evidence that specifically refutes this accusation. For a lazy player, he can be found running 30+ yards down the field an awful lot, just in case he is needed. Lazy run defender is a contradiction in terms. As for lack of production, I found he directly caused 19 plays to end in zero (3 plays) or negative (16 plays) gains against Virginia Tech, Miami and Missouri. The losses he personally accounted for, be it in the interception he caused on a QB Hit, the fumble he forced, the two sacks, the numerous tackles for loss, the few plays where he knocked his blocker so far backward, totally destroying the run play, ensuring a loss, and the two holding penalties he drew, all added up to about 100 yards of loss, over the three games. That is production. Having 2 Sacks, 3 Hits and 11 Pressures on the QB in three games is production. I'm intrigued with what he can do from a pass rush standpoint if pulled out to wider splits more often.

#021. QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State - Coming away from this Draft with a premium talent at the quarterback position was of the utmost importance. I will admit, I got cute and risked that by taking Coples without knowing for 100% certain I would end up with Tannehill or Weeden, however given the agreement I had in place at the time I took Coples, I felt the risk was worth it. Brandon Weeden is the best pure thrower in this Draft, bar none. His ridiculous Sports Science segment wherein he went skeet shooting with the football knowing 5 square inch targets out of the sky as they travelled 44 mph across his field of view, illustrates three reasons he is the best thrower in the Draft. It isn't just arm strength, but also accuracy, timing and rhythm. As John Brenkus stated, Brandon had to be accurate on his timing to below 0.01 seconds in order to hit those clay pigeons. Being off 0.01 seconds would've resulted in missing by six inches or more. It took Brandon six tries before he got the timing down, but then he hit 4 of 5. That kind of precision, not just pure accuracy (ball going exactly where you want it to go) but the timing aspect of it, not to mention the uniform release time it takes to count on your timing, just blows my mind. There aren't five quarterbacks in the NFL that could have done that. The down side with Weeden (aside from age) is obvious and well out. When successfully pressured, he lacks the same improvisational skills as Luck, Griffin and Tannehill. Tally the stats, and that will be the conclusion. However, this concerns me a lot less, knowing what I see on tape as far as Weeden's tendency not to get successfully pressured and knowing his own role in that. His recognition of defensive formations and intentions is superb. He anticipates problems before they occur, and always knows what he is doing with the football. This allows his pressure handling strategy to be finite instead of indefinite. Instead of pulling the ball down and doing something crazy to make people miss and buy whole seconds of additional time, he knows what he needs and buys the fractions of seconds necessary, bring totally unafraid of creating extra distance, worse angles or bad leverage, because his arm is just that good. His blitz recognition and planning for dealing with the blitz is outstanding. In short, you can be mediocre at handling unexpected pressure in the NFL from the standpoints of scrambling, completion percentage, yards per attempt, etc...as long as you are an expert at preventing things getting that far. That is the kind of player Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are, it is the kind of player Dan Marino was, nd it is the kind of player Brandon Weeden is.

#091. WR Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma - In my view, Ryan Broyles was clearly a borderline 1st round pick, possessing of one of the widest arrays of skill sets at the position, prior to a knee injury late in the 2011 season. Only three months after ACL surgery, Broyles was able to run a 40 yard dash in the 4.7's. Five months after surgery, he ran in the high 4.5's. Fully healthy, I estimate he is between a 4.45 and 4.50 player. I hate the comparisons between Broyles and Davone Bess. They are totally off base. Broyles is a faster player tht hurts defenses with his speed, and regularly wins on the outside and deep. Broyles shattered the NCAA record for career completions for a reason. By taking Broyles, the Dolphns get a good receiver while also giving guys like Bess, Hartline and Gates adequate chance to show what their value will be in the new offense, as Ryan is not likely to be in peak shape until 2013. Then again, even when not in peak shape, he may make his impact felt. He's that good.

#138. OT Donald Stephenson, Oklahoma - Stephenson stands 6'6" tall with 312 lbs on his frame, 35 inch arms and 10 inch hands. He ran a 4.94 second 40 yard dash with wide receiver-like 35.5 inch vertical and 9'6" broad jump measures. With that frame and that kind of athleticism, having started at left tackle for two seasons at a major program like Oklahoma, it would be a shock to see Stephenson available at this stage of the Draft. He only allowed one sack in 2011, when highly rated Florida State defensive end Bjoern Werner timed Landry Jones' snap count perfectly and did not even give Stephenson a chance to get properly into his kick slide. Donald has some work to do in the weight room and must improve his conditioning so that he can play in the second half of games the way he plays in the first half. However, his superb lower body explosion makes him a perfect fit for the Miami Dolphins' new scheme, and I like that he really commits himself to his block, shooting and using his hands very actively.

#145. OL Tom Compton, South Dakota - The Dolphins need a complete overhaul of the offensive line. The players that were acquired under Tony Sparano, who preferred large, strong and slow people-movers, are not going to cut it in Joe Philbin's scheme which requires more agile, explosive zone blockers. Players such as John Jerry, Nate Garner, Ryan Cook and Ray Feinga may play victim to the regime change. Richie Incognito may not be long as a starter on the team. Recently acquired Artis Hicks is 33 years old and only a short-term band-aid. The Dolphins need a youth movement and with the additions of Donald Stephenson and Tom Compton, they will be adding explosive players with large frames and excellent agility. Compton is a two year team captain, an All American, and he can play tackle or guard in the Dolphins' scheme.

#164. SS Winston Guy, Kentucky - Winston Guy was drafted by the Miami Dolphins to help fill the void left by Yeremiah Bell's contract termination. Guy played on the line at what really amounted to an outside linebacker position in Kentucky's defense, but also pulled out to the perimeter for some man coverage on wide receivers, and on passing downs would drop back to a deep safety position. Prior to installation of the new defense, Guy played a more traditional safety position. At only 215 lbs, he played the run from linebacker alignments better than most 240+ lbs true linebackers in this Draft, and accumulated 100+ tackles in both the 2010 and 2011 seasons. In coverage against South Carolina and LSU, I saw only two passes completed into his coverage responsibility. Though commonly credited with a 4.70 "official" 40 yard dash time at the NFL Scouting Combine, I re-timed him myself at about a 4.60, and his agent tells me that scouts have shared feedback with him on their hand-timed results which were consistently in the low to mid 4.5's. I have a vision for Guy as a sub package player in the Miami Dolphins' dime defensive packages, which is exactly how Yeremiah Bell originally made his presence felt with the team.

#196. TE Chase Ford, Miami (FL) - Chase Ford was virtually non-existent in the University of Miami passing offense. However, he came out of Junior College at Kilgore as a highly rated JUCO transfer. He showed up at the East-West Shrine Game practices, attended personally by the #MockFour Dolphins General Manager, and dominated. He moved very well, made catches in heavy traffic, and flashed speed and strength after the catch. Tape of him at Kilgore showed the same attributes. Best of all, what he showed in the practices translated to the game, as B.J. Coleman found him in the seam for a nice catch in heavy traffic, followed by the breaking of two tackles and a speedy run after catch for big yardage. Standing almost 6'7" and 255 lbs, with the ability to run a 4.75 in the 40 yard dash, with a 33 inch vertical, Ford defines the seam threat at the position. He needs to work on his blocking, but he showed potential when having to block top rated end prospect Quinton Coples when they met. Ford is highly underrated and the Dolphins are happy to take him here. He would hardly be the first gifted athlete in recent memory to go under-used and under-developed at The U, only to go on to a more successful pro career.

#215. DE/OLB/TE Taylor Thompson, SMU - In the 7th round, the Dolphins have decided to go bargain hunting. Taylor Thompson measures a full 6'6" and 259 lbs, and ran a 4.55 second 40 yard dash at his pro day. He jumped a 37 inch vertical, and benched 22 reps. He forced 6 fumbles in 2011 as a defensive end, with 7.0 sacks, yet was recruited as a tight end and played that position at a recent All Star game. The Dolphins will take a look at him as a multiple player they can use at outside linebacker in odd fronts or defensive end in 40 fronts, but depending on how he looks there, they could also take a look at him as a tight end. He has a lot of natural talent and hopefully his quirky attitude does not get in the way of developing that talent.

Priority UDFAs (All currently undrafted as of pick #217)
CB Leonard Parker, San Diego State - Player I have done a lot of work on, can stay in the hip pocket of any wide receiver and questions about game speed had to be answered when he outran Denard Robinson from behind. Ridiculous ball awareness, caught 7 interceptions while playing without much safety help all year. Despite questionable size, matched up one on one with Ladarius Green in the end zone on fade passes and defended both tries.

RB Jonas Gray, Notre Dame - Prior to tearing his knee up, I thought he was one of the best RBs in college football. I would like to keep him hovering around the program a few years to see how he recovers from the injury.

RB Fozzy Whittaker, Texas - Highly underrated speedster out of Texas, also with some medical issues, but with hidden value as a return man. Was little used on returns, but when he was used he made a huge splash.

WR Danny Coale, Virginia Tech - Very underrated guy that stands a solid 6'0" and 200 lbs, ran in the 4.4's in Indianapolis, and also put up a good 6.69 second cone drill. Sort of a poor man's Devon Wylie, or perhaps a rich man's Ryan Whalen.

OT Jeff Adams, Columbia - It boggles my mind that he is as of yet undrafted in #MockFour, but if he stays that way as we close out the 7th round, his agent would be among my first phone calls of the day. He has a ton of god-given athleticism on that 6'6" and 306 lbs frame, and he played very well at Shrine practice. Very smart player.

 

I don't believe JMJ was available at 145 or i would have certainly taken him.