IMO you have three core areas that must be addressed via the draft in 2014. Defensive tackle, offensive line and linebacker. The offensive line area is an easy one to highlight. We won't go into detail as to why, other than to say we're coming off a season where we had at least three of the worst rushing performances in franchise history and the quarterback was lucky he started all 16 games.
The other two areas may surprise some but you must consider the impact of free agency, both past and current. For defensive tackle, you're not going to spend a premium $ amount on retaining Soliai or Starks at their age. Fortunately, we have one quality starter position already filled in the form of Jared Odrick. I'd let both of those players walk and then reap the benefits next year in the form of compensatory picks. I'd also address the position in the draft early (first three rounds) this year and next. It's not an ideal situation. We could keep Starks if we really wanted to. We have the cap room to do it. But would you rather put the money into Starks or go out and fix the left tackle position in the form of Branden Albert? Albert would be my only top level free agent target (unless the Raiders foolishly let Veldheer test FA).
Linebacker. Folks, we're stuck with Ellerbe and Wheeler and their contracts for 2014. There's just no way around it. But that doesn't mean you can't make them compete in training camp against some young talent that you'll acquire in the draft. We saw Jelani Jenkins added to the mix in 2013. He proved worthy of competing against Wheeler. I reckon you go and address the backup middle linebacker role early in the 2014 draft. I do believe Ellerbe can be a solid player for us and am blaming his underperformance in 2013 on a couple of injuries that occurred early in the regular season. But that doesn't mean you give him a free ride for 2014. You go out and draft a big time talent to push him THIS OFFSEASON. This player needs to be flexible, capable of playing inside and out. So that he could slide over and replace either Misi or Wheeler down the line.
The rest of our cap room should be used to RETAIN guys that we had in our starting lineup for 2013, most importantly, Brent Grimes. This should be our strategy moving forward. No more outlandish free agent contracts. We build from within. We build thru the draft. We build thru keeping our own players that we know can play and play well in our system. What is the point of drafting someone, developing that player, and then letting them walk in free agency? Nolan Carroll should be retained at the right price or we rework Patterson's contract or have faith that Jamar Taylor and Will Davis are the players we spent the high resources on. Chris Clemons should be retained at the right price (shudder). It's not sexy. It's not going to be fun waking up on the first day of free agency and realizing we aren't going to be involved in the cap spending circus (exception is Albert). BUT IT'S NECESSARY IF YOU WANT TO WIN LONG TERM!
We're spending too much money on Matt Moore, have to trade him for whatever we can get and use the money elsewhere. With Patterson rework and Moore trade, you're looking at potential cap savings of around $7m. Tack that on to the $20m we're scheduled to have and we can retain these guys, sign Albert and possibly retain Starks.
I'm sure one question will be, how are you planning on addressing all of that (including 3 of 5 positions with Pouncey and Albert the only starters along the offensive line) on the draft? Go back to the Jimmy Johnson draft strategy. Trade down and have faith in your overall player value rankings. Use the extra picks obtained to address these key areas. Go into the draft with 7 picks (one in every round) come out of the draft with at least 10 picks. Three extra players, and if you know what you are doing, you've gained three quality players. No more trading up! Don't do it. You're not one player away from the SuperBowl. Stop being silly. For the record, I'm not against the trade up for Dion Jordan. That was good value, he's going to be a stud. But overall, DO NOT trade up.
-
SICK, GMJohnson, scotty_irnbru and 1 other person like this.
-
I don't really agree with the premise of "building through the draft", as shown by teams like Bill Polian's Colts or Ted Thompson's Packers. It works when you have a Hall of Fame quarterback, and I'd go so far as to say it pretty much works because you have a Hall of Fame quarterback. If you disavow low and mid-level free agents, you're basically resigning yourself to having bad, long-term starters. There's no reason to be stuck with Ziggy Hood, or AJ Hawk when every year there are multiple replacements of varying costs that would be upgrades.
It's not an either/or proposition. You can sign free agents AND have a healthy salary cap. Big money free agency is something I can absolutely see the merits of avoiding, but the mid and low-end is something that can make your team. Hitting on a guy like Randy Starks is a pretty big goddamned deal.PhinGeneral, ckparrothead, Kucha and 4 others like this. -
I bet Bellicheck would disagree.
What you just described as not the way to do it is almost exactly how Bellicheck does it.
To boot he has the second youngest team in the NFL at 25 yrs 10 months I believe is what I read earlier
You have to buy into the concept of "TEAM". -
:huh:
He signs mid to low tier FAs all the time.PhinGeneral, first&goal, Kucha and 1 other person like this. -
Let me clarify then, build thru the draft FIRST then fill in the gaps via free agency but don't spend money on big money free agents. When we signed Randy Starks in Feb of 2008, he was coming off a season where he only started 4 games for the Titans. The contract we signed him to averaged $4m per year. Not exactly big money for a starting defensive tackle. You are right, low to mid level free agency can be used to ones advantage but IMO it should not be a primary focus in the offseason. More of a secondary area. It depends on the position of course. If you have addressed the position via the draft but the young players have yet to be given an opportunity as a starter, do you go out and spend money to replace them? For example, our secondary this year.
I guess the part about where I said "no more outlandish free agent contracts" needed clarification. Doesn't mean ignore free agency altogether. If you're going to spend, you'd better spend wisely. That doesn't correlate if you're looking to fill a starter position in free agency.scotty_irnbru likes this. -
Belichick is pretty active in the low to mid-end free agency, and fills a lot of holes that way. Danny Amendola, LeGarrette Blount, Tommy Kelly, and Aqib Talib are pretty good examples of this.
-
I would add RB as core area need.
Our red zone offense has to get better. We were 19th in Td's scored in the red zone. Part of that would be fixed with an OL that can run block and better pass block. I think a TE or a bigger WR would help us convert FG's to TD'sRoninFin4 and Disgustipate like this. -
Blount wasn't a free agent, he was acquired by the Patriots for a mere 7th round pick. Talib was also acquired for a pick, played for the team, proved his worth, and signed a one year deal with a "promise" for more this offseason. Both players success should be immediately tied to the team's locker room culture and the fact that they have a sound veteran leadership able to handle these types of players.
2socks likes this. -
The New England Patriots have been built thru the draft. That is the concentration. Also player development. They are as solid as they come.
I didn't get the disavow part. Missed that, well not really
Of course you Got to have that part.
The players also buy into the "Coach"
The system
The Philosophies
If you want a ring and are willing to sacrifice a little coin to get one:
New England is your town
"TEAM"
I just want to have that here -
They have been great at getting incredible value for their trades. They got Moss for what, a 4th or 5th rounder? They got Wes Welker for a 2nd and 7th.
Outside of poor drafts, we have been on the wrong side of too many bad trades. The picks we acquire from those trades, we piss down our legs.
We traded 2 1st round picks for a RB who couldn't stop smoking pot. We traded a 2nd rounder for AJ Feeley and Culpepper. We traded 2 2nd rounders for Marshall and of course got 2 3rd round picks in return.
I'm not sure there's been a team in the NFL whose gotten less out of their 2nd round picks than Miami. -
I don't think the distinction matters too much, but you can go through and find loads of examples. Hell, you can even find examples of the Patriots signing the top free agent in a class.
-
-
Until we have a GM in place and get a feel for his views any assumptions as to the direction he wants to go is very premature. As well as saying that Ellerbe and Wheeler are locks to be here for another year.
In fact it will be very interesting to see in just what direction we go and the resulting product that is put on the field.
PS Keeping 2 guys who singled handedly caused us to drop defensively into the mid 20's range would, IMO, be worse than the $$$$ they cost by keeping them. -
I'm not sure there's a team in the NFL that has gotten less out of first round picks than we have... Besides Pouncey and maybe Tannehill (he's got one more year to show he's a franchise quarterback), look at the rest of our first round picks the past 15 years... Pretty pathetic... I'll exclude Dion Jordan though we sacrificed to get him and that has some of us cringing... but good lord... we treat our first round picks like they're 6th round picks.
-
to be fair, jake and vontae were good picks, and sadly we might have been a playoff team had they both been here this season.
:( -
I really hate these threads where we start talking about my three most hated subjects: The Patriots(Kraft),Bill Belichick,and Tom Brady.
As far as the original post; I liked most of it, but I just think it will be another mediocre defense if we don't convert to a base 3-4 and run more hybrid schemes.
I totally agree with what disgustipate(hard word to spell man), said about mid and low tier free agents. This is where GM's can make or break or team.
A few examples of guys I've targeted in FA this year:
Al Woods NT/DE in the Steelers 3-4. Al was a great athlete coming out of LSU(37 inch vertical) but obviously had some growing up to do. He has done that and he played very well when injuries gave him his shot this year, especially at NT. IMO, he is one of the true up and comers much like DT Dezmond Bryant was last year. A guy I wanted to sign to a long term deal.
Ropati Pitoitua has finally developed game and is now ready for prime time. A strong candidate to get a long term deal to play 5-technique in a 3-4. He played the Red Bryant role for the Titans last year.
Charles Tillman still wants to play and has admitted it might not be with the Bears. Peanut is a turnover machine and is the perfect kind of CB to convert to FS IMO. He will be 33 next season. Charles Woodson a very similar player and actually played over a thousand snaps for the Raiders last year at 37 and graded out positively. If he will convert I would sign him to a 3-4 year deal worth high mid tier money. I would not sign him to play boundary CB. Tillman is the poster boy for character and NFL leadership. It's hard to put a price tag on what he could bring to our young DB's. I expect we will draft a CB and acquire a quality undrafted rookie free agent safety as well. Ross Cockrell and Isaiah Johnson I hope.
Dion Jordan needs to play LB. I believe it is a mistake, a bad mistake to develop him as a 4-3 DE.
I think the answer at RB is a no brainer. Toby Gerhart is a perfect compliment to Miller and perhaps a draft pick. Thomas leaves waaayyyy tooo much out there and Gillislee seems to be just another wasted pick. -
I think we have 6 picks considering we gave one up for McKinnie. Patterson's money to Grimes, Grimes's salary to Clemons, Clemons's salary to Carroll. Cog's, Soliai's, McKinnie's and Moore's money to Albert and Asamoah, and Wharton/Jerry/Colon on a 1-year deal. Draft Kelvin Benjamin WR, Billy Turner OT (RT/LT), Anthony Johnson DT LSU, Max Bullough LB, and get Connor Shaw or Tom Savage as a backup QB. Give Keller's and Clabo's money to Jimmy Graham and Lagarrette Blount.
-
Depending on what Max Bullough did, we may not even have to draft him, or even want to draft him. Seems like he might be one those super intelligent guys who behaves unbelievably stupid. The kid is an academic all american but obviously is a moron in other ways.
-
Well, if I was running the draft, I'd draft him, I would not wait. Same goes for Turner, I would take him in the second round, I would not wait.
-
Young free agents that fit the system are just as good as rookies that fit the system that need a few years to develop.
The real problem is that we as fans tend to shoehorn EVERY issue into either an X category or a Y category. Either stats are the only way to go or tape is the only way to go. Attendance leads to winning or winning leads to attendance. Offense wins championships or defense wins championships. On and on and on...
The truth, as usual, generally falls somewhere in between.
The only truth about team building is that you must acquire players that you can work with. If the player isn't a talent/system/attitude/personality/health fit, they are not going to work. Which is exactly the same as every workplace.
Its also time to rethink draft strategies. People are still operating under strategies for a vastly different draft process than the one that exists today. -
I liked Toby when he came out. He could do it all, other than break off a long run w/ speed. He is smart, can catch and block, and he's tough.
I don't think I want Blount. I don't trust him off the field, or on for that matter, and don't think he fits character wise w/ Philbin. He's been fine in NE but they seem to be exceptional at keeping players in line. -
I'd tend to think that Ben Tate might be close to the top of the free agent market for the Dolphins.
He's a young, very low-mileage runningback with very good upside. He also has been in the offenses of 3 of the 4 offensive coordinator candidates- He played for Gary Kubiak, and Kyle Shanahan runs a modified version of the same offense, and in college he played for Bill Lazor's current boss Chip Kelly.Alex13 likes this. -
IMO most people don't understand the salary cap so you gotta cut them some slack. :wink2:
-
I agree with this for the most part. Building through the draft is an ideal situation but if you focus on doing that and that alone then you're stuck losing until your draft picks come to full maturity, and that's IF they come to full maturity, and as you say it seems to pretty much only work if you've grabbed an elite quarterback somewhere along the way.
I strongly believe in mid to low level free agency as a way to improve the team, as well as trades. But I'm wary of higher level, expensive free agency. The history of that seems clear to me. Teams can expect to get on average maybe 30 to 40 percent return on investment. I believe you can dip into higher level free agency when there are unique characteristics and circumstances that lead you to believe that this is a safer investment than usual.Stringer Bell likes this. -
Yeah, doesn't take a minute or two to come up w/ names of guys who signed a big contract and did not live up to it. Seems like more often a bust, sometimes mediocre. Rarely do they play up to $$$.
-
This draft is so loaded though that I wish we had more 1st/2nd round picks... You look around the league and see guys like Luke Kuechly or Navarro Bowman making such an impact on defense and then you got a mean badass with a second round grade like Shayne Skov... I don't get how some mocks have him in the second round but man that guy is a difference maker at defense.
-
I think CJ Mosley fits more into that category than Skov.
-
Going back to the issue of building through the draft, the Colts were notorious for having been overwhelmingly drafted during Peyton's heyday, and the Packers have that reputation right now. The problem? Peyton Manning went down and the Colts went 2-14. Aaron Rodgers got hurt this year for 8 games and the Packers went 2-5-1.
-
bingo, ben tate makes a lot of sense i agree -
I don't think Wheeler or Ellerbe are entirely safe. One might lose their spot with a new GM. If that GM drafts a LB and beats them in camp then I can see cutting the loss now on one of them. At least they'd have a justification for doing so.
-
If she can voodoo those 2 contracts away...........then she can side with whoever the hell she wants ;p
edit: Never mind those guys are here no matter what. Checked the actual numbers and it's over $10 million per in dead money. Ouch. -
When did Chip Kelly coach at Auburn?