Draft Countdown updated mock 1/18/13

I just can't see Barkevious Mingo being Miami's pick. Not consistent enough.

I could see the logic in their draft for Miami. You take from the strength at pass rusher early and then come back in the second round and take advantage of the strength of WRs available there. Notice that neither Hopkins or Bailey was taken in the first.

"rafael wrote:

I could see the logic in their draft for Miami. You take from the strength at pass rusher early and then come back in the second round and take advantage of the strength of WRs available there. Notice that neither Hopkins or Bailey was taken in the first.

I could see it, but I also do not see the difference at this point in taking Mingo and taking Patterson. In both cases, you are taking the player on what you think they will be able to do rather than what they have shown to this point. Both are tremendous athletes...probably the best athletes in the draft at their respective positions. However, neither have translated that athleticism into dominant production yet.

Considering the needs this team has, and considering that Scott has Johnthan Banks going one pick after Miami's pick, Banks is who I would take.

I agree with KB, Banks is who I would take if the draft unfolded this way. FA moves could change my opinion but we currently have no one on the payroll that can play #1 CB and a few below-average quality #2's. Quality WR's can be had in the 2nd round and I don't see starting passrushers as a gaping hole due to my faith in Vernon.

Scott Wright wrote:

The Phins could afford to bring Mingo along slowly as a situational pass rusher behind Jared Odrick or perhaps groom him as a replacement for Koa Misi or Kevin Burnett.

This is where a national guy is a little bit at a disadvantage relative to people that follow a team very closely. Wright is ascribing rationale to this situation that is just not in any way in Jeff Ireland's history. Ireland is focused on getting immediate production from his 1st round picks and most of his 2nd round picks as well. He's not going to take a guy thinking he can afford to "bring him along slowly" as a situational pass rusher. That's not in his history. And he's flat out stated it before, too.

If the Dolphins did take a Barkevious Mingo it would be as a SLB replacement for Koa Misi, and that's way too big of a transition to happen in Year 1. Therefore, I consider the chances of Miami going after Barkevious Mingo at pick #12 to be minimal, at best.

"KB21 wrote:

I could see it, but I also do not see the difference at this point in taking Mingo and taking Patterson. In both cases, you are taking the player on what you think they will be able to do rather than what they have shown to this point. Both are tremendous athletes...probably the best athletes in the draft at their respective positions. However, neither have translated that athleticism into dominant production yet.

Considering the needs this team has, and considering that Scott has Johnthan Banks going one pick after Miami's pick, Banks is who I would take.

I just see CB as a lower impact position unless it's a HOF level CB and while I haven't scouted Banks yet, the general opinions I've read project him as a future #2 level CB in the NFL. You can find #2 CBs in many places so you don't need to use your top pick there. Mingo, IMO has more upside than the pass rushers available with our later picks. And I like Bailey and Hopkins more than Patterson.

"ckparrothead wrote:

This is where a national guy is a little bit at a disadvantage relative to people that follow a team very closely. Wright is ascribing rationale to this situation that is just not in any way in Jeff Ireland's history. Ireland is focused on getting immediate production from his 1st round picks and most of his 2nd round picks as well. He's not going to take a guy thinking he can afford to "bring him along slowly" as a situational pass rusher. That's not in his history. And he's flat out stated it before, too.

If the Dolphins did take a Barkevious Mingo it would be as a SLB replacement for Koa Misi, and that's way too big of a transition to happen in Year 1. Therefore, I consider the chances of Miami going after Barkevious Mingo at pick #12 to be minimal, at best.

Player development is one of the reasons that we brought in Philbin. If Ireland is adjusting to what the new coach wants then I don't see bringing in a developmental player that you bring along slowly as such a shocking proposition.

"ckparrothead wrote:

This is where a national guy is a little bit at a disadvantage relative to people that follow a team very closely. Wright is ascribing rationale to this situation that is just not in any way in Jeff Ireland's history. Ireland is focused on getting immediate production from his 1st round picks and most of his 2nd round picks as well. He's not going to take a guy thinking he can afford to "bring him along slowly" as a situational pass rusher. That's not in his history. And he's flat out stated it before, too.

If the Dolphins did take a Barkevious Mingo it would be as a SLB replacement for Koa Misi, and that's way too big of a transition to happen in Year 1. Therefore, I consider the chances of Miami going after Barkevious Mingo at pick #12 to be minimal, at best.

Given the desire for immediate impact with our first, could someone like Vaccaro (S, from Texas) be in play even though it might be a reach.

If the Dolphins are going to go the route of replacing Koa Misi, which after the year he had I seriously doubt, then Dion Jordan and Jarvis Jones are much more in play than Barkevious Mingo.

But overall I don't see any of the three happening. It's not in Jeff Ireland's history to A) Use a high pick to directly replace a productive player that is still under contract, or B) Use a high pick on a player that can expect to be no more than a role player right away.

If they retain Randy Starks then I don't think they use that pick on a defensive lineman period. If they don't, then IMO they're going to steer toward a bigger body to either replace Starks directly or replace Jared Odrick who will move inside. Either way that's not going to be a Barkevious Mingo, Jarvis Jones, Damontre Moore or Dion Jordan.

The most likely picks at that spot in the Draft remain to this day Dee Milliner, Johnthan Banks, Zeke Ansah (pending the Starks situation), Sheldon Richardson (pending the Starks situation), D.J. Fluker (pending the Long situation), Lane Johnson (pending the Long situation), Keenan Allen and Cordarrelle Patterson.

"rafael wrote:

Player development is one of the reasons that we brought in Philbin. If Ireland is adjusting to what the new coach wants then I don't see bringing in a developmental player that you bring along slowly as such a shocking proposition.

That's a thin rationale, IMO. It assumes that player development was not a priority until Philbin became the coach. Which is totally untrue.

"Stitches wrote:

Given the desire for immediate impact with our first, could someone like Vaccaro (S, from Texas) be in play even though it might be a reach.

That could be. I could see that. He'd go on the list.

I think player development was absolutely not a priority under Parcells and Sparano. Parcells has always favored vets to rooks. I would say it was glaring enough that player development was talked about throughout the coaching search as a goal. You wouldn't emphasize it so much if it wasn't a deviation from what you did in the past.

As for Mingo or any pass rusher, I think that they were disappointed in their pass rush this year. I I think it's pretty obvious that Misi is unlikely to ever be a great pass rusher. They could think that Vernon may develop into that, but I doubt they're thinking, "we're good enough" in terms of pass rushers. I think it's a priority for them. I see it as part of their stated emphasis on play maker on both offense and defense.

A little off the draft topic but NFL radio had Cliff Avril on as a guest earlier this week. He will be an unrestricted free agent. He would command a sizable contract. When asked what situation he would like to go to, he mentioned being from Florida, that he prefers a 4-3 basic alignment and particularly that he prefers a grass field.

Depending on his cost, might it be a good idea to not re-sign Starks, using that money towards Avril. Then our front is Wake-Soliai-Odrick-Avril. How would this compare to our current front? What would Avril's price be?

Then BPA in the first round might be more do-able. Any thoughts?

"rafael wrote:

Player development is one of the reasons that we brought in Philbin. If Ireland is adjusting to what the new coach wants then I don't see bringing in a developmental player that you bring along slowly as such a shocking proposition.

But would they use their first round pick for a developmental player? I don't think we would unless we were already contenders.

But I do agree with you that Parcells didn't give two ****s about developing players. Sparano may have cared just didn't know how.

"rafael wrote:

I think player development was absolutely not a priority under Parcells and Sparano. Parcells has always favored vets to rooks. I would say it was glaring enough that player development was talked about throughout the coaching search as a goal. You wouldn't emphasize it so much if it wasn't a deviation from what you did in the past.

There's very, very, very little evidence to support this. When Parcells came on board he outlined his three keys to building a franchise. They were player acquisition, player development, and coaching. He made it clear that player development was as important as either of the other two. As for your assertion that he prefers veterans and this is evidence that player development was not a focus from 2008 to 2011, it's a simple fact that almost overnight the Miami Dolphins became one of the youngest teams in the NFL, and they remained young through the entire Sparano regime. If anything the opposite of what you say was the case, they were TOO young, and didn't respect the value of veterans ENOUGH, hence they made mistakes like having both corners be rookies in 2009.

As for Mingo or any pass rusher, I think that they were disappointed in their pass rush this year. I I think it's pretty obvious that Misi is unlikely to ever be a great pass rusher. They could think that Vernon may develop into that, but I doubt they're thinking, "we're good enough" in terms of pass rushers. I think it's a priority for them. I see it as part of their stated emphasis on play maker on both offense and defense.

1. Koa Misi isn't really relevant to the pass rush situation. They never intended to have to make him a 3rd down pass rush specialist. They were forced into having him do it on occasion because Olivier Vernon was so bad at it, as were every other defensive end other than Cam Wake. When you point out that Misi is not the answer at pass rush, you're not really making a point that's relevant to what I was saying. You're just reiterating what you were already saying which is that Miami could use a situational pass rush. They absolutely could use one, but there's nothing in Jeff Ireland's history suggesting he'd spring a #12 overall pick on a situational player. Koa Misi is a SAM linebacker for them, and a darn good one. If Barkevious Mingo is going to start and play a lot of snaps it would have to be over Koa Misi as a SAM linebacker. Hence, talking about Misi's pass rush prowess is irrelevant.

2. I doubt they're thinking "we're good enough" in pass rush either. But you're making an awfully big leap from that to "We need to use a #12 overall on situational pass rusher". That's like going from a guy complaining that "my back hurts" to predicting he goes in for elective surgery. When Joe Philbin commented on the pass rush the first thing he pointed out was not their shortcomings, but the fact that they were #7 in the league in sacks. That was the first thing he pointed out. After that, he gave the "however" bit about how there's more details you need to look at than that including situational stuff and they can definitely get better in those areas.

3. As for the stated priority of making plays on offense and defense, you're glossing over the language Joe Philbin used. He specifically pointed to TURNOVERS on defense. While this could of course be stretched to include more pass rush, I think it's pretty obvious that means more interceptions.

"gandalfin wrote:

A little off the draft topic but NFL radio had Cliff Avril on as a guest earlier this week. He will be an unrestricted free agent. He would command a sizable contract. When asked what situation he would like to go to, he mentioned being from Florida, that he prefers a 4-3 basic alignment and particularly that he prefers a grass field.

Depending on his cost, might it be a good idea to not re-sign Starks, using that money towards Avril. Then our front is Wake-Soliai-Odrick-Avril. How would this compare to our current front? What would Avril's price be?

Then BPA in the first round might be more do-able. Any thoughts?

I doubt it happens, for the same reasons that I've been saying the Dolphins seems unlikely to go with a Dion Jordan, Damontre Moore, Jarvis Jones or Barkevious Mingo at 12 overall. Avril would have to come in on a pretty big contract as you say, and they seem intent on having the defensive end opposite Cam Wake be a big and strong player like Jared Odrick. They won't pay Cliff Avril a bunch of money to be a situational guy.

"gandalfin wrote:

A little off the draft topic but NFL radio had Cliff Avril on as a guest earlier this week. He will be an unrestricted free agent. He would command a sizable contract. When asked what situation he would like to go to, he mentioned being from Florida, that he prefers a 4-3 basic alignment and particularly that he prefers a grass field.

Depending on his cost, might it be a good idea to not re-sign Starks, using that money towards Avril. Then our front is Wake-Soliai-Odrick-Avril. How would this compare to our current front? What would Avril's price be?

Then BPA in the first round might be more do-able. Any thoughts?

I'd doubt it, we need a strongside DE who can get after the passer and handle the run, if signed Avril to a big dollar deal, it would basically be to do Wake's role.

Tampa however, is one of the teams with a lot of cap room, and the Jags are eternally searching for a pass rushing De.

I see Mingo as being this year's Bruce Irvin. It's possible IMO that he could go 12th overall, even if he were not looked at initially as a base defense starter, but a big contributor in the nickel, playing opposite Wake at DE. Play about 500 snaps, get 10 or so sacks along with a bunch of other QB disruptions.

"MrClean wrote:

I see Mingo as being this year's Bruce Irvin. It's possible IMO that he could go 12th overall, even if he were not looked at initially as a base defense starter, but a big contributor in the nickel, playing opposite Wake at DE. Play about 500 snaps, get 10 or so sacks along with a bunch of other QB disruptions.

IMO if Jeff Ireland did that it would be a significant departure from his history and his stated philosophies.

"Finascious D wrote:

But would they use their first round pick for a developmental player? I don't think we would unless we were already contenders.

But I do agree with you that Parcells didn't give two ****s about developing players. Sparano may have cared just didn't know how.

I think it's pretty obvious that player development was not a priority and that it is a priority under Philbin. I think they would use a first round pick on a developmental player if they thought he could be a play maker immediately. A pass rusher would be a defensive play maker and that would include creating turnovers.

"rafael wrote:

I think it's pretty obvious that player development was not a priority and that it is a priority under Philbin. I think they would use a first round pick on a developmental player if they thought he could be a play maker immediately. A pass rusher would be a defensive play maker and that would include creating turnovers.

Obvious?

Is it based on anything? Anything whatsoever that you can point to?

"rafael wrote:

I could see the logic in their draft for Miami. You take from the strength at pass rusher early and then come back in the second round and take advantage of the strength of WRs available there. Notice that neither Hopkins or Bailey was taken in the first.

I'd much rather have Jordan than Mingo, but either way we'd be in the same boat. The player will come in as a situational pass rusher- which is a huge need as things stand now- and he'll be groomed at DE or OLB. I'd be fine with that- no matter how you cut it, Misi is a subpar pass rusher, Burnett is no dynamo on the other side and Odrick is a jumbo 4/3 DE who bumps inside on passing downs. I think that it's more important to fill the need than to worry about the player starting from day 1 or not. And if in a year or two Misi moves to ILB and say a Jordan moves to SAM- great. And if he stays at DE- Wake will be 33 in 2 years, so w'ed likely be getting close to having a need there as well.

"ckparrothead wrote:

Obvious?

Is it based on anything? Anything whatsoever that you can point to?

Ireland is obssessed with snap counts, he has mentioned this several times in terms of high draft choices.

IMO, this is one of his flaws as a GM, he'd prefer "solid and dependable contributor" over "playmaking talent"

It was obvious from the day Philbin was hired (and during the search) that developing players was something they wanted to new staff to do differently. I would say developing players and transparency were by far the two most frequently cited goals for the new regime. Whenever you have a change in regime you see what's going to be different stated over and over again. Those were two areas that were lacking under Parcells and two areas they hoped would be different under Philbin. I think you see the under-lying philosophy in their QB choices. Henne was one of Parcells' 4 year starters while RT was almost universally described as raw and needing time to develop. I don't think RT would have been selected under Parcells and obviously he was under Philbin. I think that's an example of a different philosophy being in place.