Football Outsiders: Dolphins Playoff Chances At 76.7% After Win Vs Jets

Interesting. I think we will have a much better idea after this weekend.

Prett surprising odds to me given how much of the schedule is still left.

This says more about the AFC sucking than anything else.

Pats, Broncos, Steelers, Texans are the division winners. Ravens get a wild card. That leaves us, Indy, San Diego, NY, Buff, etc going for one spot, maybe 2 if the Ravens take a nose dive.

"GMJohnson wrote:

This says more about the AFC sucking than anything else.

Pats, Broncos, Steelers, Texans are the division winners. Ravens get a wild card. That leaves us, Indy, San Diego, NY, Buff, etc going for one spot, maybe 2 if the Ravens take a nose dive.

Precisely.

The thing is, this is just statistical modeling and takes nothing human into account. Seasons can turn on an injury, a demoralizing loss, a galvanizing team-chemistry moment.

"GMJohnson wrote:

This says more about the AFC sucking than anything else. Pats, Broncos, Steelers, Texans are the division winners. Ravens get a wild card. That leaves us, Indy, San Diego, NY, Buff, etc going for one spot, maybe 2 if the Ravens take a nose dive.

I'm not so sure the Steelers are going to win that division. Losing Webb will hurt them but getting Suggs back will help them more than losing Lewis will hurt them. I haven't looked at their schedule but if the Steelers lose to the Giants and go 4-4 I have a tough time seeing them catch the Ravens.

"Bpk wrote:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffoddsPats at 96%Jets at 11.5%We have a strong Wildcard shot. To win the division we'd have to beat the Pats twice.

So if the dolphins win to go 5-3 like the Pats they'll have a 96% chance? Doesn't sound right but I do like our chances if we beat Indy.

If we lose this week it goes to50% so all we have to do is win.Sounds easy anyway~!

"Bpk wrote:

Precisely.

The thing is, this is just statistical modeling and takes nothing human into account. Seasons can turn on an injury, a demoralizing loss, a galvanizing team-chemistry moment.

I'm not sure why you'd deride projections based on things that haven't happened.

Right now the Colts and the Dolphins have the same record. So if the Dolphins can beat the Colts, I think their chances are making the playoffs will be very good. If on the other hand, the Dolphins lose to the Colts, I think it is going to be very difficult for them to make the playoffs this year.

As well as the Dolphins have played so far this season, I still don't see them going better than 9-7 this season. If they can get to 9-7 and win this weekend, that should get them the sixth and final spot in the playoffs. With a loss, I think they will likely finish 8-8 at best or 7-9. Last week I thought the Jets game was the most important game the Dolphins had played so far this season. Now the Colts game is probably more important because it might determine the possibility of the Dolphins making the playoffs. I believe the winner of this game will be the final playoff team in the AFC this season.

I wonder if the Dolphins were 6-1 right now. I know, it's getting old to hear that "What If 6-1" talk...

If you guys didn't know, the Colts have a very difficult schedule up ahead.

One game at a time, Gentlemen... One game at a time.

"gamblerx wrote:

I wonder if the Dolphins were 6-1 right now. I know, it's getting old to hear that "What If 6-1" talk...

If you guys didn't know, the Colts have a very difficult schedule up ahead.

In looking at the Colts remaining schedule, I don't see that it is isn't tougher than the Dolphins remaining schedule. The Dolphins have to play the Patriots twice and the 49er's in San Francisco. The Colts play the Patriots and they will play the Texans twice. Assuming the Dolphins and Colts lose all those games, I think both teams are very capable of winning all the remaining games on their schedule. Therefore that is why I think the winner of the Dolphins-Colts game tomorrow will be the final playoff team in the AFC this season.

The odds of me watching Sunday's Dolphins vs Colts game = 100%

Last season at this time I watched the game if I was by a tv, with no work around the house. This year the work will wait till after the game.

GO PHINS!

I agree with just about everything said in this thread.

It's a HUGE AFC game. We win this and i think we are sitting pretty. We still have some tough games coming up in a few more weeks, Pats X2, SF, Seattle. The better off we can line ourselves in, going into those 4, will determine if we land 5th, 6th, or hell even the division pending on the Pats.

I like our odds to get there this year.

The secondary is a joke....but hey if we miss out on the playoffs, we'll just be missing our secondary getting shredded by Big Ben, Brady or Manning anyway. Would still be nice to watch a playoff game though.