As free agency winds down and our focus turns to the draft the number of mock drafts is growing. Mocks are fun but they are just opinion and the only opinions that matter are the ones belonging to Tony Sparano, Jeff Ireland, and Bill Parcells. So I began to wonder what their mock draft might look like. Our biggest clue to what the triumvirate are thinking is a quote from Jeff Ireland last April.
True to his word Ireland drafted a left tackle, a pressure player, and a QB on day one. He even took another pressure player in the 3rd round. He didn't pick a non-core position until the 4th round when we drafted offensive guard Shawn Murphy.
The next biggest clue to what the triumvirate are thinking is free agency. Check out these recent comments from Tony Sparano.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/other/sfl-flspdolphins20sbfeb20,0,4393618.story
I'm beginning to believe unlike previous regimes these guys ain't lying to us. That quote from Sparano was prior to free agency. Look at our biggest signings. A starting safety and a starting center. Neither of them are core positions. Ireland's core positions are not going to be free agent acquistions. They are going to be day one draft picks. That leaves cornerback, nose tackle, a No. 1 receiver, and more pressure players as you can never have too many. Those are the four positions I believe Ireland's mock draft would focus on.
Round 1 (25) - CB Darius Butler from Connecticut
Not only is CB one of Ireland's core positions but we have a huge hole there. Plus Will Allen will be a free agent next year. (Yet another example of the relationship between free agency and the draft.) However the most pressing concern is who will line up opposite of Will Allen in 2009. The candidates are Jason Allen, Eric Green, Sean Smith, Vontae Davis, Alphonso Smith, and Darius Butler. Let's break them down.
Jason Allen - Is he a safety or is he a CB? I finally figured it out. He's a nickel back. Jason Allen is a very good special teams player who comes in when it's third and long. Not what you're looking for out of a 1st round pick but he is what he is.
Eric Green - Borderline starter as evidenced by his salary and the length of his contract. Definitely not a "core" player. Yes he will compete for the starting gig but we didn't show him the money like Gibril Wilson or Jake Grove. Plus he wasn't signed as quickly as they were. Basically Green is our short term insurance plan and another CB who can play the nickel and dime if a rookie wins the starting gig.
Sean Smith from Utah - A dark horse at #25 because there is a fair chance he will still be on the board when we pick at #44. However he has been compared to Nnamdi Asomugha and if that's true then we would be lucky to get him at #25. The big question for me in regards to Smith is his speed. Asomugha ran a 4.45 forty at the Combine and Smith ran a 4.50 forty. I don't have Asomugha's short shuttle for comparison but Smith ran a 4.15 short shuttle. Not the top time but not too shabby. Definitely worth consideration but his times aren't blowing me away.
Vontae Davis from Illinois - Here's the thing with Davis. He was a Top Ten pick heading into this draft. Now he might be there at #25? That's a huge red flag and there's a good chance we will pass.
Alphonso Smith from Wake Forest - I'm starting to believe his size or lack thereof might push him into the 2nd round.
That leaves Darius Butler who is a tremendous athlete and very capable of starting on opening day. He is exactly the type of player who you build around. In other words a "core" player. When considering only core positions then Ron Brace, Hakeem Nicks, Clay Matthews, Larry English, Connor Barwin, and Robert Ayers are also very strong possibilities at #25.
Round 2 (44) - OLB
Impossible to predict the exact player but I'm very confident in the position. It will depend on who is still on the board. This year's draft is very strong at DE/OLB conversion players. However since there are so many talented guys coming out we can afford to wait and see who is still available in the 2nd round. The candidates are Clay Matthews, Larry English, Aaron Maybin, Connor Barwin, Clint Sintim, Robert Ayers, Michael Johnson, and Paul Kruger. None of these guys figure to be there in the 3rd round but at least one of them will be there at #44. Let's break them down.
Clay Matthews from USC - Reminds me of Matt Roth and that's not a good thing. Still he's very likely to be our pick if he's still on the board.
Larry English from Northern Illinois - Very difficult to evaluate. Way more good than bad but there are some concerns such as a history of injuries and level of competition.
Aaron Maybin from Penn State - Very raw and there are questions about whether or not he can carry the extra weight he would need to carry in order to play OLB for us.
Connor Barwin from Cincinnati - My favorite of the bunch so the Patsies will probably pick him at #34.
Clint Sintim from Virginia - A favorite on this board but we haven't been hearing much about him lately. Personally I was underwhelmed when I saw him against Aaron Curry's Demon Deacons.
Robert Ayers from Tennessee - Another favorite of mine but it's very possible he goes to either a 4-3 or a 3-4 team in the 1st round.
Michael Johnson from Georgia Tech - Overrated. Like Vontae Davis he had been considered a Top Ten pick but is now projected to go in the 2nd round. Big time red flag.
Paul Kruger from Utah - Love his size. Other than that I don't really know much about him.
It's possible that Ron Brace could still be on the board at #44 and we might go in that direction but I would be surprised if we passed up one of those outside linebackers even if Brace is still available. Brian Robiskie and Kenny Britt are darkhorse candidates at #44.
Round 2 (56) - WR Juaquin Iglesias from Oklahoma
This guy is extremely underrated right now and I really hope he'll be there at #56 because if he is then it's a slam dunk. Unless we pick Nicks at #25 of course. Other candidates are Louis Murphy, Mohamed Massaquoi, and Derrick Williams. Let's break them down.
Louis Murphy from Florida - Overshadowed by Percy Harvin he could be a steal. His size and speed are impressive.
Mohamed Massaquoi from Georgia- I was really impressed by this guy every time I saw him play but apparently there is a knock against his hands which a red flag when it comes to wideout. Derek Hagan was a victim of poor hands.
Derrick Williams from Penn State - Runs hot and cold. Not sure he has the makings of a number one wideout in the NFL. However he has the potential to take over a game.
If Iglesias if off the board then NT Sen'Derrick Marks from Auburn is a very strong possibility at #56.
Round 3 (87) - NT Dorell Scott from Clemson
There aren't any other nose tackle candidates in the 3rd round. Scott is a team leader and a hard worker. Seems like the type of player Parcells and Ireland would love. Terrance Taylor, Vance Walker, and Chris Baker are possibilities in the 5th round. However I don't believe Ireland will draft a core position in the 5th when we have other needs and there are likely to be better players at other positions available. I could see the Dolphins taking a flyer on Myron Pryor from Kentucky in the 7th round or better yet bringing him in as an UDFA.
So there you have it. Taking free agency and core positions into consideration this is the triumvirate's mock draft.
CB Darius Butler
OLB Connor Barwin (hopefully)
WR Juaquin Iglesias
NT Dorrell Scott
Four core positions filled on day one of the draft and the first pick on day two. After the 3rd round Ireland won't go after core positions. I believe the Dolphins will target OL, ILB, FB, TE, maybe RB or Punter, and double up on CB in the later rounds.
Plus there is sure to be a surprise or two. We could see some movement this year trading up or down and it wouldn't surprise me if we traded John Beck, Samson Satele, Ricky Williams, or Matt Roth for an extra pick.
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vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
This mock he did is very well thought out....most importantly, he picked up on the core players Ireland has been talking about...and he's exactly right. Not sure of the order...but the positions taken with the first four picks will likely mirror exactly what he has....
Picking 25 sucks..because you have to sit there and keep hoping your favorite player doesnt get drafted before the Phins go.....have to admit....the thought of Henne connecting with Nicks in 2010...has me a little giddy. But I would be happy with Butler as well....The G Man, Big Red, ToddsPhins and 1 other person like this. -
I don't understand how someone rating you before anything actual shakes out (ie a projection) and having it not shake out as projected constitutes a red flag on a particular player. Shouldn't it be more of a red flag not to follow those people's initial projections?
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Give me your opinion. If Hakeem Nicks and Darius Butler are both still available at 25 then who do we go with?
would you rather have darius butler, connor barwin and brian robiske or hakeen nicks, sean smith and sintim in the first 3 picks?
or is there another realistic combination of picks you see us being able to get in the first 3 rounds? -
Any combination of Butler, Smith, Barwin or Stintim with the 1st 2 picks would be great !
I don't see a WR until the 3d round at the earliest .... -
Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member
The G Man and ToddsPhins like this. -
Butler ran a 4.38 at his Pro Day...along with a 43" vertical and an 11'2" broad jump. His 10 yard is one of the fastest in the draft and he can cover better than anyone in the draft. He has great instincts and seems so unbelievably fluid in his hips that I don't think he'll get flagged a lot in the NFL.
I'm just going to prepare myself now by saying that Barwin will be gone by our 1st pick. We lost our biggest playmaker in the secondary (Goodman), and a great turnover margin is the reason we won 11 games.... so you could make a strong case that Butler should be the 1st pick. He played about as well all Senior Week as DRC did last year if that helps. ;)
You can also make the case that Henne needs a dependable #1 target to develop a great chemistry with who can be his go to guy over the next 10 years. Hakeem accomplishes this as well as brings some physicalness to the outside ala Hines Ward. He can help seal off the defense on sweeps etc, and his mere presence improves our ground game.
Our offense is 2 WR's away from being dominant, so my nod goes to Nicks. Nicks satisfies the physical go to guy, while London hopefully steps up as the tall redzone/vertical threat to balance it all out.
If we move Roth inside, I'm not a fan of platooning a 1st round rookie with Wake on the strong side, unless the rook is versatile enough to play inside as well. That's overkill IMO. If I platoon anyone with Wake, it's a veteran, not someone of lesser talent and experience. LOL. A mid round pass specialist will suffice as our extra QB pressure. If we keep Roth outside, then a guy like Sintim/Mathews to play the middle with Crowder could be a possibility that I would highly look at. In this scenario, you still draft a pass rusher later on to groom behind Joey (Victor Butler). After all, Tuna didn't say that our extra QB pressure needed to come from a starter. -
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Look at last year's draft. Vernon Gholston was considered by many to be a top ten pick right? What if his stock dropped? What if he was still on the board when the Dallas Cowboys picked at #25? If you were their GM would you pass on Mike Jenkins and take Gholston instead?
Apologies if that's a poor analogy. I'm just trying to illustrate my point a different way. Basically what I'm trying to say is Vontae Davis and Michael Johnson have some issues. Those issues have caused many scouts to remove both players from the list of potential top ten picks. That means you might be getting a steal if you draft one of them later. However you might be getting Pacman Jones or Courtney Brown.ToddsPhins likes this. -
It depends on the flag. I'd bet that some teams took Andre Smith off their board entirely when he left the Combine.
And there are other criteria that take players off. IMO Alphonso Smith is the best cover corner in the draft but it wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't even on the Dolphin's board b/c he doesn't meet the size parameters they want. In fact, I think that's one of the big knocks on Bulter, Moore or many of these corners being discussed here. They are smaller than the team sees as ideal. They all carry some questions in run support which I know is one of Parcells' top criteria for CBs. I have to think these things drop them down on the team's board. I don't think it drops them off but it lowers their ranking. IMO it's very unlikely that the team would rate these guys above a Nicks or any of the pass rushers.Xeticus, ToddsPhins and Big Red like this. -
Butler, Barwin and Robiskie or Nicks, Smith and Sintim? That's another tough call. I prefer Butler to Smith, Barwin to Sintim, and Nicks to Robiskie but who knows? I would be happy with any of those players. -
my dream picks in first 3 rds would be
1st - hakeen nicks
2nd - darius butler (stretch because he could be gone before we select in the 2nd rd)
2nd - connor barwin (moving up closer to first rd), larry english or Clint Sintim
3rd - Ron Brace (Mayock calls him the best NT in the draft)The G Man likes this. -
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1st - Nicks
2a - Barwin or Sintim
2b - DJ Moore
3rd - BraceThe G Man and ToddsPhins like this. -
How do you feel about Sherrod Martin?
I'm on the fence deciding between Brace and Scott because I've watched Dorell play every game and really like what he brings to the table.
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I'm not really a fan of Brace I only listed him there for hooser. This wouldn't be my dream draft. I actually prefer a Chris Baker or Terence Taylor. I haven't watched Scott so I can't give you an opinion on him, sorry.ToddsPhins likes this. -
My take is they go BPA at #25, the best value is the player we go with and that could be Nicks, Butler, Davis, Hood, or Barwin.
What we need is a DE who is all world to pair with Porter, the chances of that happening are slim and none though, so with our needs we literally could draft anyone at #25.
A side note, but according to NflDraftScout, Clint Sintim is sliding back as he did not improve his numbers during the VA Pro Day and there are 6 or 7 guys who play his role who posted better overall performances.ToddsPhins likes this. -
Do not be shocked to hear Sean Smith in the first. A very big and physical corner. Also a possibility at 2a if we pass on him at 25.
Sherrod Martin is a nice prospect, but maybe not in the second round. If we skip CB with 25 and 2a, we could look at Jairus Byrd at 2b or 3, another bigger CB, and a guy with a knack for getting the ball.
As far as Connor Barwin, Im seeing mocks of him going before us in the first round now (generally to NE ofc). New England is in an interesting position of picking just before Miami in both the first and second rounds. I could see them using their first on a "luxury" pick like RB. Wells or Moreno would be a solid choice for a lackluster overall running game. Then use 34 to snag Barwin or someone else falling like Sintim or English.ToddsPhins, Big Red and padre31 like this. -
Unless Cam Wake is the real deal, there is alot riding on him strategically speaking, if he can pass rush, or if we resign JT, the pressure is off, if we pass on JT and Wake is just a role player we are in a tough spot. -
If Maualuga or Matthews are there when we pick at 25 I say we pull the trigger. Who do we have in the middle? Crowder and Ayodele. I would much rather see Rey or Clay fill in that second ILB spot and have Akin as depth. To me that is core also and at this point I don't see the depth in the draft at ILB to be very deep.
As far as Corners go there is more depth and some good ones could be had in the second if they really believe they need to draft one that high. According to Parcells they are not the most important piece of the defense.
Now to the Wide outs. I am not one for drafting a wr in the 1st but man, Hakeem Nicks does draw my attention and makes me want to pair him up with Henne and the rest of the guys we have catching the rock.
With that said, here is where I see the need matching the BPA and the philosophy of Ireland, Parcells and Sparano at our 1, 2a and 2b picks.
1. Matthews ILB, Maualuga ILB, Nicks WR or Butler CB
2a and b. Stintim OLB, Butler CB, Cody Brown OLB, Barwin OLB, Paul Kruger OLB, Michael Johnson OLB, Ron Brace DT
ILB, OLB, DT, CB, WR -
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Then a draft could go something like this (with of course many variations):
1. OLB- Connor Barwin
1b. WR- Hakeem Nicks
2a. BPA who falls (Ziggy, Sean Smith, Darius Butler, Sintim, Alphonso Smith)
2b. TE/Wildcat- James Casey
3. CB- Sherrod Martin/Keenen Lewis/Kevin Barnes
4. DT/NT/DE- Dorell Scott
5. QB- Stephen McGee
6. G-Louis Vasquez
7a. NT-Sammie Lee Hill (via John Beck)
7b. RB-Gartrell Johnson
7c. WR/PR/KR- Deon Butler -
Man, all I know is if we somehow manage to get Nicks, along with any combination of either; S. Smith/Butler/Sintim/Barwin/Kruger with our first three picks, I will be very happy.
And, while I don't know how feasible it is, if it ends up being Nicks, Smith and Sintim, I'll be stoked! :thumbup: -
Big Red likes this.
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However I agree with padre31 about BPA at #25. Several potential Dolphins are likely to be gone by the time we pick. If I had to guess I would say we don't have a shot at B.J. Raji, Everette Brown, Jeremy Maclin, Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Robert Ayers, Peria Jerry, and Brandon Pettigrew at #25.
That leaves James Laurinaitis, Hakeem Nicks, Alphonso Smith, Connor Barwin, Evander Hood, Darius Butler, and Sean Smith among others.
James Laurinaitis would be great but ILB is not one of Ireland's core positions. I wonder if Frantz Joseph isn't a poor man's version of Laurinaitis and the fact that we re-signed Crowder allows us to find out.
If you haven't heard Hakeem Nicks has put on weight. Probably due to a pulled hamstring. He went from 212 lbs at the Combine to 226 lbs on his Pro Day. Many people consider it a red flag. I don't know. It could be.
Alphonso Smith is just too short. Personally I believe he will be a starter for somebody and maybe even a Pro Bowl caliber corner. However I doubt Parcells and Ireland would take him over Sean Smith.
Connor Barwin is definitely worth the #25 pick and I would love it if the Dolphins drafted him. However I still believe they would take Butler or Sean Smith instead and wait to see which OLB is still on the board at #44.
Evander Hood is a beast but I don't believe he is a nose tackle which is probably why we haven't heard about any interest from the Dolphins.
Sean Smith has impressed me with his workouts. He answered any questions I had about his long speed with the 4.47 forty he ran at this Pro Day. His short shuttle was a hair faster than Darius Butler's and their 3-Cone time was identical. I still prefer Butler just because I believe he is more athletic but Smith looks very good.
I am not a Sherrod Martin fan. Among other things he was very dissapointing in his bowl game.
I like Clint Sintim just not in the 1st round. If he's there at #44 then I'd pull the trigger if Larry English was gone. Otherwise I'd go with English. -
Another guy that I like is Paul Kruger. He's a good player. Got exceptional quickness off the edge, closes on the opposition very fast and has multiple pass rush moves in his arsenal. He does a good job of setting the edge; I see him taking a bad angle at times and won't always wrap up the ball carrier but that can be worked on. He's a year or so older than other prospects because of his Mormon mission but that's not a big issue. If anything, that is welcomed because it may show he's more mature than others. I'm not quite sure if he's a guy who could start right off the bat but I like him and think he would be a solid addition.
Sean Smith, my number one CB.Big Red likes this. -
Why do you think New England goes CB in the first after signing Springs and Bodden? I see Springs as an immediate starter. Guy is getting older, but he played at a high level last year and I think he will again this year. Bodden and Ellis Hobbs can compete for the other spot.
I think they need a safety to pair with Merriweather more than a CB, though I could see them addressing CB in later rounds perhaps.
Its interesting to note that they are in a similar boat to us as next year they will have lots of FAs, some of whom will demand big contracts (Wilfork). They have to already be thinking about who they will be keeping and who they wont, and drafting accordingly. However, they are also getting older in some key spots (LB) and still have other holes (RB). So they could go many different directions, same as us. As glad as I was to see the Chiefs get the better value, I hate that NE is ahead of us again. They can easily go for a luxury like RB, or someone who might need some time to develop like Barwin, then still get a guy ahead of in the second like Sean Smith, Kruger, Barwin again etc.
They do seem to be very interested in Mathews though from USC. I know CK likes him as an ILB in our scheme, I wonder if the Pats would want him manning the middle with Mayo (sorry for the alliteration there) or replacing Vrabel on the outside.Big Red likes this. -
I'm not saying you're wrong. However there are a lot of differing opinions on Laurinaitis.
Now consider the outside linebackers. In the 1st round you're looking at players like Connor Barwin, Michael Johnson, Aaron Maybin, Larry English, and Clint Sintim. However in the 2nd round at least one or two of those same five guys could still be there.
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I doubt Maybin lasts to us. I'd be surprised if he lasted to fifteen. Kruger is an option. Cody Brown. Lawrence Sidbury Jr. in the third and he's a good player. Ayers is a second IMO.
Big Red likes this. -
Clay Matthews at ILB? Its an interesting idea. However if you're planning on converting Matthews to ILB would that make him a 2nd round pick? Most teams don't take a player in the 1st round with the intention of having him switch positions. -
Ayers would partially depend if they see him as OLB or as a DE in our scheme.
I know there is alot of love for Nicks on this board, but I dont see a WR going at 25 for us. I think it would be more likely to see a Robiskie at 2a than Nicks at 25.
Its all going to depend on who falls though really. Cushing or Mathews, Maybin, Malaugua etc.
I wonder as well how hard we might work to trade down. It seems there really is quite a parity of talent at the spots we are looking at between the late first and mid second round. You could make arguments for a dozen guys going at 25 that could also be there at 44 or maybe later. If a guy like Oher slipped to us, you have to think the FO would certainly entertain offers. I would take an early 2nd round pick thins year and something nice in next years to move down 10 slots, definately. -
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And Im sure BB has scouted more than just Butler. And isnt Barwin from UCONN as well? Could have been there mostly for him and just took some looks at Butler while he was in town.
Still, them taking a CB/S combo with their first 2 picks wouldnt be a bad move. But I think unless they feel Ellis Hobbs is not a starter then they wont go CB so early. Especially with gaping holes at OLB and S.Big Red likes this. -
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*edit* They very well could be scouting Butler hoping he drops to their early 2nd, which could easily happen.Big Red likes this.