How Do We Escape the 3-Year Mediocre Cycle?

We make the right educated guess.

3 years? Brother try 25 years

"KeyFin wrote:

Here's my problem though- Ross was asked in the press conference, "What if the team goes 3-13 next season on the way to building a true long term contender?" His answer was, "I hope not, but whatever it takes." And that terrifies me.

Why? That's a fantastic answer. He's saying do whatever it takes to build a true long term contender even if it means waiting an extra year.

Ross's desire to win was never the question in my mind, just his ability lol. Not yet convinced he'll make the right decisions. We'll see if the nickname "Dumbo" (gotta admit he has the ears!) will still be appropriate in the years ahead.

"cbrad wrote:

Why? That's a fantastic answer. He's saying do whatever it takes to build a true long term contender even if it means waiting an extra year.

Ross's desire to win was never the question in my mind, just his ability lol. Not yet convinced he'll make the right decisions. We'll see if the nickname "Dumbo" (gotta admit he has the ears!) will still be appropriate in the years ahead.

I agree with you 100%....awesome answer.

But how do we avoid what just happened with Gase, Philbin, and Sparano? To me, the answer is not putting it in the hands of a 20+ year vet with no executive experience. It's just too big of a job. It's like moving your best kitchen cook to general manager...although he knows the restaurant in and out, he just doesn't have experience handling payroll, food orders, customer complaints, scheduling, etc.

I genuinely hope I'm wrong, but I don't like this move at all.

Ross for better or worse has decided that Grier is capable of leading football operation and has entrusted him with finding a head coach. It's up to Grier to pick the right candidate and perform well in the draft. The headcoach has to the groom the players and install a working system that players buy into. The last part is execution and a tiny bit of luck. That's the only way to be successful.

"KeyFin wrote:

I agree with you 100%....awesome answer.

But how do we avoid what just happened with Gase, Philbin, and Sparano? To me, the answer is not putting it in the hands of a 20+ year vet with no executive experience. It's just too big of a job. It's like moving your best kitchen cook to general manager...although he knows the restaurant in and out, he just doesn't have experience handling payroll, food orders, customer complaints, scheduling, etc.

I genuinely hope I'm wrong, but I don't like this move at all.

Yeah who knows. We know too little from the outside anyway to evaluate Grier beyond his draft picks. The previous approach of getting candidates with experience (Tannenbaum) and "hot" coaching prospects (Gase) didn't work. So let's see what Grier does. I simply find little value in judging moves this early when it's too hard to predict which GM/HC/QB turns out to be the right choice.

Just happy Ross (almost) cleaned house. MUCH better than making minor changes. As stated before, just keep trying till you get it right.

This "build a team that is capable of sustaining contention year after year" is the same shit they've been saying since they brought in Sparano. I have ZERO confidence they're going to magically be able to do this all of a sudden.

"Agua wrote:

This "build a team that is capable of sustaining contention year after year" is the same **** they've been saying since they brought in Sparano. I have ZERO confidence they're going to magically be able to do this all of a sudden.

I mean, every franchise has that goal....and our record was better this year than almost half the league. Obviously I'm rooting for Grier and all- but the odds of us suddenly building a perennial championship team in a season or two is almost zero. The odds of doing that with an internal upgrade that never held the position before? It just makes me nervous since sports history says it's not going to happen.

That's the same for any team not named New England though- it's finding a needle in a haystack.

"KeyFin wrote:

I agree with you 100%....awesome answer.

But how do we avoid what just happened with Gase, Philbin, and Sparano? To me, the answer is not putting it in the hands of a 20+ year vet with no executive experience. It's just too big of a job. It's like moving your best kitchen cook to general manager...although he knows the restaurant in and out, he just doesn't have experience handling payroll, food orders, customer complaints, scheduling, etc.

I genuinely hope I'm wrong, but I don't like this move at all.

I understand where you are coming from. As I have said, I am excited about the move. However, that doesn't mean I am not nervous about how things are going to go. I think Grier has the skills. In this situation, instead of scouting players, he's scouting head coaches. He knows how to do his research (ie. compile data, watch film, call around, etc.). Plus, after 20 years in the business, if he doesn't know, he knows who to ask.

The way you escape the mediocrity is 2 fold. You bring in PROVEN winners as OC and DC and most importantly, get back to basics.

As some of you recall, I have beat the drum time and time again, when we rush the ball 25 times a game, we win...and I’m not talking about running the ball to burn the clock, I’m talking about committing to the run. Offensively I want a stud OL and a back that can rush 25 times a game and average 6 yards a carry. In your face, smash mouth, demoralizing ground and pound game that makes a defense more tired than a hooker on payday.

I want a QB who is a field general, whom we only ask to throw the ball 25 times a game, complete 75% of those passes and averages 15 yards per completion. I want a QB who comes up under center and knows what the defense is going to do even before they do.

Defensively, I want a DL that dominothe lube of scrimmage, that can stuff a running back before he reaches the LOS. On passing downs, I want a defense that has that QB running for his life and has no where to throw the ball to because out DBs are stuck to the receivers like flypaper. I want a defense that forces 3 and outs consistently and creates turnovers. Bottom line, I want the re-birth of the no name defense.

The only way we’re going to achieve this is to bring in proven coordinators who have demonstrated success time and time again. A good head coach is the leader of the team, but it’s those coordinators that’s going to create the team we ultimately want.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

As some of you recall, I have beat the drum time and time again, when we rush the ball 25 times a game, we win...and I’m not talking about running the ball to burn the clock, I’m talking about committing to the run. Offensively I want a stud OL and a back that can rush 25 times a game and average 6 yards a carry. In your face, smash mouth, demoralizing ground and pound game that makes a defense more tired than a hooker on payday.

I want a QB who is a field general, whom we only ask to throw the ball 25 times a game, complete 75% of those passes and averages 15 yards per completion. I want a QB who comes up under center and knows what the defense is going to do even before they do.

Defensively, I want a DL that dominothe lube of scrimmage, that can stuff a running back before he reaches the LOS. On passing downs, I want a defense that has that QB running for his life and has no where to throw the ball to because out DBs are stuck to the receivers like flypaper. I want a defense that forces 3 and outs consistently and creates turnovers. Bottom line, I want the re-birth of the no name defense.

Ravens are the closest thing today to trying to win the way football used to be played: good running game and good defense without relying too much on the QB. It'll be interesting to see how they do in the playoffs because if they have success it might lead other teams towards moving the needle back towards the way football used to be played.

I doubt this will happen though. The game today is heavily biased towards the passing game so I fully expect the trend of those teams winning the QB lottery to go deep in the playoffs and winning the SB to continue.

Either way, a good defense is necessary but what you're asking for there is like asking for perfection lol. Regardless of the type of offense we have, what's important is the pass defense not run defense, not only because that correlates higher to win% but also because the teams you'll face in the playoffs will likely have top passing offenses. And the Ravens have a top passing defense, not just a top defense by points allowed.

What Ross is spot on about is that we have a ton of bad contracts and aging vets. We need to go through a youth movement and get bad contracts off the books. 2019 might not be a great season, but getting these players and their bloated contracts off the roster can change the course of the franchise.

"KeyFin wrote:

I mean, every franchise has that goal....and our record was better this year than almost half the league. Obviously I'm rooting for Grier and all- but the odds of us suddenly building a perennial championship team in a season or two is almost zero. The odds of doing that with an internal upgrade that never held the position before? It just makes me nervous since sports history says it's not going to happen.

That's the same for any team not named New England though- it's finding a needle in a haystack.

I mean, even NE had to wait decades (their entire existence) to find their unicorn.

As for turnarounds, I think in today's NFL you can and should see somewhat quick turnarounds. Look at the Eagles, Rams and even the damn Browns.

"texanphinatic wrote:

I mean, even NE had to wait decades (their entire existence) to find their unicorn.

As for turnarounds, I think in today's NFL you can and should see somewhat quick turnarounds. Look at the Eagles, Rams and even the damn Browns.

That's exactly my worry though- look at the Browns and their three prior years of being the laughing stock of the league. We've yet to have a coach last until that 4th year under Ross....most GM's only make it two. I'm 100% in on a 4 or 5 year plan.....we just need to stick to it instead of hitting reset after a few average seasons.

"KeyFin wrote:

That's exactly my worry though- look at the Browns and their three prior years of being the laughing stock of the league. We've yet to have a coach last until that 4th year under Ross....most GM's only make it two. I'm 100% in on a 4 or 5 year plan.....we just need to stick to it instead of hitting reset after a few average seasons.

I mean, it's fine to be worried and wonder if we have the right people in place, but you could do the same questions for literally every person on the planet. I mean, Parcells came in and was shit. Jimmy couldn't get it done and wasted Marino's later years. Saban couldn't hack it and went back to greener pastures. BB could quit New England and get hired, and while we would be confident, we still couldn't guarantee shit. It's fine to have questions, but have some optimism to start I suppose. See who we land, see our draft, the offseason moves.

Then it's all about looking for progression. Is the roster getting better? Is the coach improving at running the team and being a coach? Are players learning and improving? If yes, you keep on trucking. If not - like with Gase - you pull the plug and try again.

Hi All,

The one thing I wanted to happen at the end of this season did not happen to the extent I wanted it to. That was to CLEAN house, burn it to the ground and start fresh - ah. Nope, we still got Grier who has been a part of The Miami mediocrity journey these past 2 decades (minus 2 years) and we've just been boring year after year. I would've preferred someone at the helm that has been there, that takes calculated risks, shoots for the fences. I do not see him being that guy. I am not talking bad about Grier, he may be all that but the thing is, he has been here and will be new to the position. AND now hiring a head coach. UGH!!!!

Grier may be a respected Scout but if you're going to clean house, clean it and start fresh. It seems one big part of our journey in mediocrity has been never fully cleaning house. As far as I can remember we have always kept part of one staff or another. I m not 100 % certain but in the last 20 years we have not wiped the slate clean.

Oh well, Happy New Year every one!!

Ross doesn't expect us to go 6-10-10-6, He said that is not good enough, if that means going 3-13

"KeyFin wrote:

Gase is fired after three seasons. So was Philbin and Sparano. Maybe one of them made it 4 years? It was such boring football, I honestly forget....and that's the entire problem.

So now we're switching up GM's, head coaches and likely quarterbacks. What are our assets? A top-5 secondary, a few elite receivers/RB's and lots of young, developing players. That's attractive to someone on the outside looking in, and I think it's a plus that Tannehill could start or the next coach gets to pick his own quarterback. Leaders love options, and the Miami Dolphins have a ton of them.

What will that next leader do? Their main priority will be "digging out the trenches". We need two guards and/or a center, some interior linemen and definitely a few edge guys that can get consistent pressure. Could they already be on our roster? Maybe, that depends on the scheme. That's why the most important aspect is who they bring to the party with them- coordinators, line coaches, QB whisperers, etc.

Then what? Okay, we probably draft a stud LB or D lineman in the first round. Maybe we grab a few linemen and a corner after that. The roster itself looks decent, but who's taking the helm at quarterback? Surely not Tannehill. But the kid absorbs offenses like a sponge and he's always upbeat, plus he blows you away in practice. Let's hope we cut ways ASAP and the new coach doesn't get to see that stuff in training camp.

Here's my problem though- Ross was asked in the press conference, "What if the team goes 3-13 next season on the way to building a true long term contender?" His answer was, "I hope not, but whatever it takes." And that terrifies me.

We just went 7-9 and fired a coach for that. And we're already saying 3-13 is okay in the first year of what will likely be another 3-year experiment. That's fine if the plan is Suck for Luck II, but nothing gave me that indication from Ross's words. He expects us to be between 6-10 to 10-6 next year, by hiring "football players who want to win."

Tell me this people...what players don't want to win? I'm 45 and used to play football, plus I want to win really bad. Could I start at quarterback next season? Pretty please?

I do like that Ross handed off all decisions to Grier....and I know nothing about the guy except his name isn't Stephen Ross (his key benefit so far). Once again, we're rolling the dice with one person being a mastermind to figure everything out in the next 60 days, and I'm sorry folks....I just don't have the faith.

Why'd we fire Gase? According to Ross, "because he wants to win now. Every 4th year coach wants to win now."

But I'm confused....Ross wants people who wants to win. But we fired Gase because he wants to win now? Are you guys following the incredibly ridiculous logic here? It may be the dumbest thing I've ever heard a team owner say out loud.

As I said, I don't know anything about Grier. Hopefully he's a mastermind because the people around him clearly aren't. And hopefully he has more of a plan than finding young talent that raises their hands when he asks the room, "Who likes winning at stuff?"

Again, my hand is raised. Tag me in coach...I like winning a lot! Just ask my family how many times I've lost at Monopoly around our dining room table over the past 2 decades! Zero. Nada. I'm a ruthless winning machine. Ross will love me.

I really, really want to be optimistic that we're on the path to being what everyone wants, but we already know how internal promotions go. There's no pressure to win today, but we're going to fire you in the next 12 months if we don't make the playoffs. Grier just accepted a no-win position with an average team that's about to take yet another reboot, with absolutely no guidance from the owner and a meaningless blueprint.

A lot of you here say Grier is a superstar- hopefully you're right. Because this is EXACTLY how a decade of rebuilding has started for us twice in the past two decades....we promote from within on a spur of the moment decision without even scheduling a single interview. The ONLY THING that can stop us from repeating the same dumb mistakes of the past is if Grier is a pimp daddy of a GM, despite never holding the position before and never actually interviewing for the role elsewhere.

And who made that decision? The dumbest owner in the history of professional sports. Forgive me if I'm not brimming with confidence.

Breathe brother!

We don't know much about Grier. All we know is that since 2000 multiple staff have thought enough of him to keep him on board in various capacities.

I have to say I'm pulling for him. I respect a person who put in the work to get to where he is. Obviously that doesn't guarantee success but it's a good trait.

For all we know he's been the one making good decisions. For all we know he's been gritting his teeth in the background going "If they would just listen..."

Anyway, my point really is we don't know. However, I'm fairly impressed with his HC search so far.

I even don't mind Flores. Sure the Pats D is bad but they are also incredibly lacking talent and people are looking at men in a one year vaccum vs their careers.

The issue has been and continues to be:

A) Lack of a Franchise QB
B) Short sighted bandaid moves year after year.

Ross's latest move is yet another half measure...

I felt Ross actually had the right take in his presser for a change. Yes we have heard some of those things before but more often we have heard how close we were. Bringing in a couple of vets to patch the holes was all we needed. Ha. We all knew that wasn't true and it seems Ross does as well. He said that he and Grier had a long conversation prior to the presser, hopefully that means Grier told him the unpleasant truths about this team and gave him a real vision. Thats why Ross was saying things like if he has to go 3-13 to get the team built properly he would, no more bringing in over priced over the hill veterans to push us over the top.

Now if they follow thru and make it happen remains to be seen. And while we're at it I'm gonna cast my vote for Dirk Koetter as OC. Not HC, OC.

"texanphinatic wrote:

I mean, even NE had to wait decades (their entire existence) to find their unicorn.

As for turnarounds, I think in today's NFL you can and should see somewhat quick turnarounds. Look at the Eagles, Rams and even the damn Browns.

what has been quick about the Browns turnaround?

"Dol-Fan Dupree wrote:

what has been quick about the Browns turnaround?

Yeah they've been one of the worst franchises for who knows how long, so from that point of view it's really the longest "turnaround" in the league. However, once they found a franchise QB the "turnaround" was immediate. That team has some key players, lots of cap space and draft picks and ended the season 5-2 so all it needs is a decent HC and I think they contend for their division. After Mayfield that franchise has actually turned into an attractive spot for potential HC's.

"cbrad wrote:

Yeah they've been one of the worst franchises for who knows how long, so from that point of view it's really the longest "turnaround" in the league. However, once they found a franchise QB the "turnaround" was immediate. That team has some key players, lots of cap space and draft picks and ended the season 5-2 so all it needs is a decent HC and I think they contend for their division. After Mayfield that franchise has actually turned into an attractive spot for potential HC's.

Let me ask you this- you've shown for a few years now Tannehill is average or maybe even slightly above average. His last two horrific games dropped him to 20th on the year, but still.....let's call him average.

#1, How hard is it to find an average, 16th ranked NFL quarterback these days? Or maybe to ask a different way, how many QB's do franchises draft before having someone fall into that category?

#2, Same question, except for finding a top 10 quarterback.

I'm asking because a lot are under the impression that it will be easy to replace Tannehill with someone better....even though in the average year there's only a dozen or so names that actually surpass him. What are the relative chances that the next few quarterbacks we draft/trade for can play at his level?

For instance, a few here have preached Teddy Bridgewater as a legit answer. Yet he's never been within 10 points of RT in ratings in any given year. Although his stats may be a little misleading since he's a run threat as well, what are the chances of Bridgewater being a 92.0+ quarterback next season?

Note- this is not me making a case for Tannehill...I want him gone. I'm just asking how realistic it would be to replace him with someone better next season without chasing Foles or another big-name free agent who's already in the top 15.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

The way you escape the mediocrity is 2 fold. You bring in PROVEN winners as OC and DC and most importantly, get back to basics.

As some of you recall, I have beat the drum time and time again, when we rush the ball 25 times a game, we win...and I’m not talking about running the ball to burn the clock, I’m talking about committing to the run. Offensively I want a stud OL and a back that can rush 25 times a game and average 6 yards a carry. In your face, smash mouth, demoralizing ground and pound game that makes a defense more tired than a hooker on payday.

I want a QB who is a field general, whom we only ask to throw the ball 25 times a game, complete 75% of those passes and averages 15 yards per completion. I want a QB who comes up under center and knows what the defense is going to do even before they do.

Defensively, I want a DL that dominothe lube of scrimmage, that can stuff a running back before he reaches the LOS. On passing downs, I want a defense that has that QB running for his life and has no where to throw the ball to because out DBs are stuck to the receivers like flypaper. I want a defense that forces 3 and outs consistently and creates turnovers. Bottom line, I want the re-birth of the no name defense.

The only way we’re going to achieve this is to bring in proven coordinators who have demonstrated success time and time again. A good head coach is the leader of the team, but it’s those coordinators that’s going to create the team we ultimately want.

I agree with most of your ideas.
I am an old man. I have watched a lot of football in my life. I am in no way an expert, but I have a fair understanding of what I think is important on every level, from PeeWee to the NFL. You have to protect your QB/run the ball effectively on offense and attack the QB and stop the run on defense.
The rules favor the passing offense, but pressure makes great QB's average and average QB's poor. Tannehill is a perfect example. With time he is an average QB. When he gets immediate pressure he looks like a schoolboy.
I hope the Phins allocate assets, coaching, draft, and salary to our lines this year. The fact that we couldn't pick up stunts was embarrassing. I have never heard a professional coach say that.