Below is a set of final regular season standings that would result in a TIE between the Dolphins and Colts in strength of schedule. Both teams would have a 0.563 strength of schedule, and would be forced to go onto other tie breakers which I believe are the reverse of playoff tie breakers.
I've noted on the right hand side which team benefits if the team in question finishes WORSE than the prediction. In other words, in the very first line you see Atlanta at 10-6. They're 4-3 right now, which projects to 9-7, but they're playing the Colts next week and if they win that game (which is probable) they will project for a 10-6 finish. But if they finish below 10-6 then the Colts benefit. However, if they finsih better than 10-6, this impacts the Colts' SOS negatively and favors the Dolphins.
What I'm trying to show you with this, is this all seems pretty doable. As an exercise, just run down the list and think about your own predictions on final records for these teams. If you agree with the projection below, fine. If not and you think it will be lower or higher, keep track of how many notches favor the Dolphins versus the Colts and this will give you an idea whether your current expectation about how the season will end will involve the Dolphins winning the SOS battle with the Colts, or losing it.
Remember that the below projections involve a SOS tie between the Colts and Dolphins.
ATL :: 10 - 6 :: Colts
BAL :: 12 - 4 :: Colts
BUF :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins x2
CAR :: 4 - 12 :: Colts
CIN :: 10 - 6 :: Colts
CLE :: 6 - 10 :: Neutral
DAL :: 8 - 8 :: Dolphins
DEN :: 3 - 13 :: Dolphins
HOU :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
JAX :: 4 - 12 :: Colts x2
KAN :: 10 - 6 :: Neutral
NE :: 12 - 4 :: Dolphins
NOR :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
NYG :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins
NYJ :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins x2
OAK :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins
PHI :: 8 - 8 :: Dolphins
PIT :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
SDG :: 8 - 8 :: Dolphins
TAM :: 8 - 8 :: Colts
TEN :: 10 - 6 :: Colts x2
WAS :: 6 - 10 :: Dolphins
If the season ended this way and both the Colts and Dolphins are 0-16 then it would go to a coin flip. If they're both 1-15, things get more interesting because it would depend on who you beat. Right now for the Dolphins, I'm looking at the Redskins game and thinking...that could be the game we win. If we win it, all might not be lost because it wouldn't be a conference win. One nice thing about the Jaguars' 4-12 projection here is they still have to play the Colts twice. If you project the Jags to only be 3-13, for instance, then you're implying that the Colts come away with AT LEAST one victory against the Jaguars. If you think the Jaguars finish 2-14 then it means the Colts also finish 2-14.
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mbsinmisc, Mile High Fin, unluckyluciano and 15 others like this.
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Rules for determining draft order
The Draft currently lasts seven rounds. The draft order is determined by first generating the order for the first round. That order is based generally on each team's regular season record, with the exception of the two Super Bowl contestants, who are placed at the end of the draft order. Tiebreakers and specifics are as follows:
- Any expansion team automatically gets the first pick; if there are two expansion teams, a coin toss determines who picks first; the other team will pick second in the expansion draft.
- The winners of the Super Bowl are given the last selection, and the losers the penultimate selection.
- Teams that made the playoffs are then ordered by which round of the playoffs they are eliminated.
- Teams that did not make the playoffs are ordered by their regular-season record.
- Remaining ties are broken by strength of schedule. For draft order, a lower strength of schedule results in an earlier pick. If strength of schedule does not resolve a tie, division and/or conference tiebreakers may be used. If the tie still cannot be broken, a coin toss at the NFL Combine is used to determine draft order. (Note: Strength of schedule is the combined records of a team's 16 opponents, including games played against the team in question, and counting divisional opponents twice. Because of this, each team's opponents' combined wins and losses—counting a tie as a half-win, half-loss—will add up to 256, so a team whose opponents had more combined wins has a better strength of schedule.)
Mile High Fin, Southbeach, SICK and 1 other person like this. -
Thanks for putting this together. Agree on the Redskins game. I don't see any team in the NFL losing to a John Beck led Redskins squad.
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What is Rex Grossman's deal? Is he hurt or something? I hate to see it but I think Rex is the only hope for losing that game. Unless Matt Moore gets hurt against the Chiefs and J.P. Losman is forced to play that game...
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I think Mike has just gone off the deep end. The way he has handled some of his players and QBs since being back in the league is just short of insane.gunn34 likes this. -
Same deal as it has always been.
I don't think Beck is any better to be honest. Both have been pretty awful. -
If we fail to fail it's gonna be a depressing next few years.
PHINZ4LIFE, finyank13 and dolfan32323 like this. -
I agree, although the Karmic Gods might make Beck look like Aaron Rodgers in a few weeks.
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Everyone is focused on Luck, but I still think they will have 3 real good franchise QB's in this years draft.
PHINZ4LIFE, Mile High Fin and MAFishFan like this. -
Not necessarily. If Luck was never in the equation we'd probably still be excited over the prospects of drafting a franchise QB. John Elway was a once in a generation prospect in 1983, and that draft still had Marino and Kelly, two guys who were good enough to lead their team to Championships but fell short due to other circumstances.
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Luck, Weeden, and Tannehill:yes:
and if Landry Jones, Matt Barkley, and RG3 come out early = 6 easy:up: (and I still like Kellen Moore to some degree) -
There's still a chance Landry Jones or one of the other QB's pan out just fine for us.
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As of right now, Miami is way behind in SOS for the #1 pick if both teams go winless.
The combined record for 16 opponents (13 teams, since 3 teams played twice) for each team:
Colts SOS = .546, 65 wins, 54 losses
Dolphins SOS = .602, 74 wins 49 losses
It is the division that hurts Miami's SOS compared to the Colts:
AFC South = 22-24
AFC East = 28-14
Clearly looks like Miami is going to need to finish with a worse record than the Colts, Rams and Cardinals (teams with 1 win) to get the #1 pick. -
Yep, I think some fans are putting in way too much faith in getting Luck, that getting anyone else would suck. -
It's slightly closer than that thru week 8 (see below)...but yes, our best bet is Indy and all other NFL teams with at least 2 wins, and Miami with only 1. Either way, very interesting.
[TABLE="width: 318"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]MIA[/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 2"]IND[/TD]
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[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CLE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD]CLE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
[TD]PIT[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
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[/TR]
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[TD]SD[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
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[TD]TB[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
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[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYJ[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
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[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CIN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYG[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]NO[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
[TD]TEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
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[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WAS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
[TD]ATL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
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[TD]JAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
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[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DAL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
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[TD]CAR[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OAK[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PHI[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[TD]BAL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
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[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
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[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYJ[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]64[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49[/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]65[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]54[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]119[/TD]
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[TD]SoS%[/TD]
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[TD]SoS%[/TD]
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[TD]0.5664[/TD]
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[TD]0.5462[/TD]
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[/TABLE]Mile High Fin, ckparrothead and AdamC13 like this. -
Losing on a coin flip to a team that has Peyton Manning. That would be so par for the course with the Dolphins that I'll probably have nightmares about it.
shula_guy, dolfan32323, SICK and 1 other person like this. -
He's played worse than John Beck. Yep, I know, it's hard to fathom given Beck's numbers, but the guy actually played a-okay on Sunday, considering he had no OL (I don't quite know who these guys dressed in Redkins jerseys were, but linemen they were not) and no help whatsoever at WR. If you think we did a bad job protecting Chad Henne, go watch that Redkins game. I suppose Shanny is playing Beck because Grossman would likely throw a dozen picks in those circumstances.
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You promised there would be no math.......
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I'm fairly certain that there's no strength of victory tiebreaker in the draft. It's record - strength of schedule - division/conference records - cointoss. That's why you sometimes have several cointosses at the Combine (there were three in 2010, if I recall correctly), but (almost?) never in a playoff scenario.
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correct per Draft rules its only 4 things after fewest wins
1) strength of schedule, and if that does not resolve a tie
2) division
3) conference
4) If the tie still cannot be broken, a coin toss at the NFL Combine is used to determine draft order.
So per CK's theory, if we have same matching SoS%...and since we dont play in same division, its Conference record.
If we both win 0 = coin flip
or if its 1 win records then it depends if the win is Conf win or not...otherwise its a coin flip.
just more angst for Fin Fans to worry about. -
The NFC East only has one team above .500 fwiw. -
Favor yes, but can it end in a tie...YES it can! Can Miami miraculously win it...YES! but favor towards INDY...Yes.
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Jaqs could equally screw us with so few wins.....then again, they could be our savior if INDY beats them in their H2H matchups.....so exciting.
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But at least Grossman can play well at times. He can even string a good game together. I'm betting our secondary would invoke a performance from "Good" Rex.
Beck on the other hand, is consistently useless and awful. -
2-3 sounds very generous.
I see only one I'd feel at all comfortable in projecting (Washington) -
I actually think we'll have a very good shot at beating Kansas City on Sunday. We match up well against them and it's the perfect spot for a trap game. Unfortunately, the bookies think so too.Southbeach likes this.
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I think KC winning last night help our cause.
I don't think this will be a trap game now that they are in a tie for first in the division. Winning gives them alot to play for next Sunday.
If KC lost last night I think Sunday would have been a trap/flat game for sure.
I only see 2 potential wins left. Washington (possible to probably) and Oakland (possible to doubtful.)
I have a really strong feeling Miami and Indy both finish 1-15.dolfan32323 likes this. -
WHO TO ROOT FOR/AGAINST
I converted CK's list into a guide of who we should root for to LOSE and who to root for to WIN to help our SFL chances this season. I know it gets a little more complex if any of these teams play one another, but as a general guideline here is who to root for/against this year if you are a Sucker-for-Lucker:
Teams We Want To See WIN (except against Colts)!
ATLANTA
BALTIMORE
CAROLINA
CINCINNATI
HOUSTON
JACKSONVILLE
NEW ORLEANS
PITTSBURGH
TAMPA BAY
TENNESSEE
Teams We Want To See LOSE (except against us)!
BUFFALO
DALLAS
DENVER
NEW ENGLAND
NEW YORK GIANTS
NEW YORK JETS
OAKLAND
PHILADELPHIA
SAN DIEGO
WASHINGTONckparrothead, Pandarilla, Ophinerated and 1 other person like this. -
WHO TO ROOT FOR/AGAINST : A Miami Suck-for-Luck Fan's Guide to the 2011 NFL Season
OOPS. Double-post.
Thanks for the work, CK! It helped make things easier for me to understand. -
Every week this just gets a little more surreal...
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finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member
I still don't think Indy will take Luck, unless they trade Manning which I don't see happening. People don't think Manning has any say in the matter, I think he does and I think they pass on Luck if they still think Manning is healthy. I wouldn't be surprised to see him push to play the last few games or so to ensure they don't have the number one overall. Luck isn't going to sit on a bench for 4-5 years and Manning isn't going to mentor a guy to become a 2nd stringer for his last 3-4 years. Its a tough situation to be in for Indy, they probably want to take Luck but I don't see them keeping both Manning and Luck on the same roster. One of them is getting traded for a ton of picks.
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ANY team that has the chance to draft him WILL draft him....you just don't pass up that talent...it will come down to barkley and jones for the fish...plain and simple...unless the colts want something like 3 first rd picks from whomever in a trade....instead of being disappointed, accept the fact that the dolphins may squeeze out 2 wins..the colts won't...they are horrendous without Manning
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finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member
I don't think Indy will take him, I think they take the highest bidder in trade. Or they trade Manning, which I think is unlikely. There is no way Manning and Luck are on the same team next year. -
Depends on how you look at it. You have Peyton Manning who is a HOF Superbowl Calibre coach on the field. You can win with him now if you put peices around him. You don't pass up on windows to win the Superbowl. Look what Philly did as soon as they realized what they had in Vick. There is an oppurtunity to do that now. Building for the future is great....but the goal is to win Superbowls. Andrew Luck is a GREAT college QB but we can't be sure how he'll produce in the pros. And its not like Andrew Luck is a bigger draw than Peyton. Peyton is like the most popular player in the league. You aren't going to necessarily increase revenue by picking up Luck either. QBs come out every year.GARDENHEAD likes this.
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