Interesting perspective from Football Outsiders on Dolphins situation

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If your question is talking about the fact that all of these moves by the Dolphins add up to more improvement than what each single move suggests, well then I don't have much to say because it's almost impossible to quantify how those separate moves will interact with each other from a purely statistical perspective. What I can say, however, is that I don't see Gibson and Keller as vast improvements over Bess and Fasano. Before last year, Gibson had never ranked higher than 69th among wide receivers according to our value and efficiency stats (i.e., DYAR and DVOA). Last year was the first time Keller ranked higher than 20th among tight ends. Meanwhile, Bess had ranked in the top 55 four out of his five years in Miami (including last year), and Fasano had ranked in the top 15 three times from 2008 to 2011 before falling off the face of the earth in 2012.

Good read, that is a harsh criticism of Sherman and Tannehill.

Another self acclaimed "expert" that thinks he has a system that can predict the ceilings of prospects.
A stat monkey system at that. Spare me.

I dont think advanced metrics apply to the NFL.

Damn...

This organization needs a total paradigm shift. Steven Ross needs to understand that orange carpets, celebrity shareholders, and veiled threats to move the team mean nothing down here; championships mean something. Jeff Ireland needs to take his stylized brand of ineptitude to another team. They need to find a bona fide franchise quarterback. This may sound self-serving, but perhaps they might benefit from having an analytics department help them with all of the above. (God knows it's helped San Francisco, New England, Philadelphia, Baltimore, etc., etc., etc.) Another mediocre season accomplishes none of this, and I think Dolphins fans want and deserve much more than mediocrity.

I struggle with the two knocks on Tannehill being that he didn't start enough games in college but is also a finished product.

Those seem contradictory to me.

"72 Dolphins wrote:

This organization needs a total paradigm shift. Steven Ross needs to understand that orange carpets, celebrity shareholders, and veiled threats to move the team mean nothing down here; championships mean something. Jeff Ireland needs to take his stylized brand of ineptitude to another team. They need to find a bona fide franchise quarterback. This may sound self-serving, but perhaps they might benefit from having an analytics department help them with all of the above. (God knows it's helped San Francisco, New England, Philadelphia, Baltimore, etc., etc., etc.) Another mediocre season accomplishes none of this, and I think Dolphins fans want and deserve much more than mediocrity.

Have you looked at Philly in the last 5 years? Not exactly my model for success. And I'd say Steven Ross has moved us away from the orange carpets shareholders etc. I think he's learned that lesson. 25-28 teams also need a bona fide franchise quarterback. We're in a better position than most, although its not a solved puzzle.

We might not be flying to heaven, but the sky isn't falling.

This time of the year on the forum is so painful.

"thisperishedmin wrote:

Have you looked at Philly in the last 5 years? Not exactly my model for success. And I'd say Steven Ross has moved us away from the orange carpets shareholders etc. I think he's learned that lesson. 25-28 teams also need a bona fide franchise quarterback. We're in a better position than most, although its not a solved puzzle.

We might not be flying to heaven, but the sky isn't falling.

This time of the year on the forum is so painful.

Not as painful as another 7-9 season.

"72 Dolphins wrote:

This organization needs a total paradigm shift. Steven Ross needs to understand that orange carpets, celebrity shareholders, and veiled threats to move the team mean nothing down here; championships mean something. Jeff Ireland needs to take his stylized brand of ineptitude to another team. They need to find a bona fide franchise quarterback. This may sound self-serving, but perhaps they might benefit from having an analytics department help them with all of the above. (God knows it's helped San Francisco, New England, Philadelphia, Baltimore, etc., etc., etc.) Another mediocre season accomplishes none of this, and I think Dolphins fans want and deserve much more than mediocrity.

Stopped reading at the underlined, that is OLD news, i'm talking not even slightly relevant anymore.... man its **** like this that will make having a winning season feel so great. Like the heat winning when everyone is hating. except 1000% better.

"72 Dolphins wrote:

This organization needs a total paradigm shift. Steven Ross needs to understand that orange carpets, celebrity shareholders, and veiled threats to move the team mean nothing down here; championships mean something. Jeff Ireland needs to take his stylized brand of ineptitude to another team. They need to find a bona fide franchise quarterback. This may sound self-serving, but perhaps they might benefit from having an analytics department help them with all of the above. (God knows it's helped San Francisco, New England, Philadelphia, Baltimore, etc., etc., etc.) Another mediocre season accomplishes none of this, and I think Dolphins fans want and deserve much more than mediocrity.

Hate to tell ya sport but Tannehill showed plenty of signs of taking the next step to be an elite QB down the stretch last year. He can make every throw, he just needed and still needs better targets. I dont mind analytics but with Football Outsiders theyre frankly just not very good scouts and their opinions on college athletes is one I can live without.

As for Ireland, I like some of things hes done recently (such as locking up Jones, drafting Dion Jordan, signing Wallace) but I can take it or leave it with him. Ive seen better and I've seen much worse. But one thing that wont be happening is making every thread about Jeff Ireland.

"Coral Reefer wrote:

Another self acclaimed "expert" that thinks he has a system that can predict the ceilings of prospects.
A stat monkey system at that. Spare me.

The flaw in such projections revolves around football not being like Baseball in that physicality changes over time, for example Gibson may have been a dud in St Louis, he could shine in Miami.

This is why I chuckle at stat monkery trying to enter football, the game does not work like what the stat nerds of MLB think it does.

And consider this, by their metrics, Keller had a great yr, reality is..he had a crappy 2012.

In keeping with loyalty to numbers and not what happens on the field, comparing Keller to Fasano, of course it is a push...but if you watched the games Fasano was a massively flawed, slow, non playmaker..period.

This is going to be a fun season.

"padre31 wrote:

And consider this, by their metrics, Keller had a great yr, reality is..he had a crappy 2012.

In keeping with loyalty to numbers and not what happens on the field, comparing Keller to Fasano, of course it is a push...but if you watched the games Fasano was a massively flawed, slow, non playmaker..period.

This is going to be a fun season.

Agreed, I keep tooting Keller's horn, the guy is a significant upgrade.

The one thing that is keeping me up at night is: who is going to catch the TDs when we are first and goal? We can't run it in every time. Maybe Brandon Gibson? Keller? Mathews? Wallace and Hartline gt us to the red zone, but they are not big TD producers there. Tannehill needs a target there big time

"Boik14 wrote:

Hate to tell ya sport but Tannehill showed plenty of signs of taking the next step to be an elite QB down the stretch last year. He can make every throw, he just needed and still needs better targets. I dont mind analytics but with Football Outsiders theyre frankly just not very good scouts and their opinions on college athletes is one I can live without.

As for Ireland, I like some of things hes done recently (such as locking up Jones, drafting Dion Jordan, signing Wallace) but I can take it or leave it with him. Ive seen better and I've seen much worse. But one thing that wont be happening is making every thread about Jeff Ireland.

Flex those flabby muscles Boiker!

"Fin-Omenal wrote:

Flex those flabby muscles Boiker!

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.leadersatalllevels.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/muscles.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.leadersatalllevels.com/are-your-change-muscles-flabby-or-fit/&h=194&w=259&sz=7&tbnid=RqjUSNvyEJdYhM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=120&zoom=1&usg=__09qJN6HLIi6CQzpeM8fnfnMo_4Q=&docid=wiUsH9p-bcpYjM&sa=X&ei=oGAAUvbCLNa04APyiICoDw&ved=0CFgQ9QEwDQ&dur=195

"Ohio Fanatic wrote:

Agreed, I keep tooting Keller's horn, the guy is a significant upgrade.

The one thing that is keeping me up at night is: who is going to catch the TDs when we are first and goal? We can't run it in every time. Maybe Brandon Gibson? Keller? Mathews? Wallace and Hartline gt us to the red zone, but they are not big TD producers there. Tannehill needs a target there big time

Keller, Gibson, Sims, Matthews, Clay.

"padre31 wrote:

And consider this, by their metrics, Keller had a great yr, reality is..he had a crappy 2012.

In keeping with loyalty to numbers and not what happens on the field, comparing Keller to Fasano, of course it is a push...but if you watched the games Fasano was a massively flawed, slow, non playmaker..period.

This is going to be a fun season.

Agreed. Ive seen Keller make plays, against us, that fasano simply never could.

"padre31 wrote:

And consider this, by their metrics, Keller had a great yr, reality is..he had a crappy 2012.

In keeping with loyalty to numbers and not what happens on the field, comparing Keller to Fasano, of course it is a push...but if you watched the games Fasano was a massively flawed, slow, non playmaker..period.

This is going to be a fun season.

I wonder if stat monkey took into consideration the QB's throwing to both fasano and Keller... hmm :shifty:

"Boik14 wrote:

... But one thing that wont be happening is making every thread about Jeff Ireland.

Nice Hair Boik.

"Bpk wrote:

Keller, Gibson, Sims, Matthews, Clay.

...Jordan.

#StillForJordanAsRedzoneTE

"invid wrote:

Good read, that is a harsh criticism of Sherman and Tannehill.

no its the damn truth , my word some of you just refuse to see the truth about Sherman an Tannyhill like some of us have been trying to tell you these guys just flat out suck they were horrible in the big 12 and it was most people's opinion that they suck so shy cant some of you see that Tanny and Sherman are not the answers . its plain for everyone else to see .

I want to win and want both guys to succeed but come on now folks if Tanny was to be our savior he would have showed more then just flashes.

Tannyhill is not as good of a qb as Sage Rosenfels but he is better then Cleo Lemon but not by much .

if outsiders can see that a team has talent and will be good then they would mention it . but they saw what some of dolphin fans saw and it isn't going to be R.T. Sherman was a horrible play caller at A&M SO WHY would he suddenly be great here ? just the honest truth whether I like it or not .

"Aquafin wrote:

no its the damn truth , my word some of you just refuse to see the truth about Sherman an Tannyhill like some of us have been trying to tell you these guys just flat out suck they were horrible in the big 12 and it was most people's opinion that they suck so shy cant some of you see that Tanny and Sherman are not the answers . its plain for everyone else to see . I want to win and want both guys to succeed but come on now folks if Tanny was to be our savior he would have showed more then just flashes. Tannyhill is not as good of a qb as Sage Rosenfels but he is better then Cleo Lemon but not by much . if outsiders can see that a team has talent and will be good then they would mention it . but they saw what some of dolphin fans saw and it isn't going to be R.T. Sherman was a horrible play caller at A&M SO WHY would he suddenly be great here ? just the honest truth whether I like it or not .

Yeah, what Tannehill really needs is Chris Chambers.

"Frumundah Finnatic wrote:

I dont think advanced metrics apply to the NFL.

I make part of my living in Analytics in Sports, and Statistics overall. I Swear by advanced Metrics in Basketball, and proven their worth on this board and others.

Let me repeat what I have repeated a million times before.

I can devise formulas to suggest which player was more productive. I can even see some of the advanced team metrics as having considerable value.

But using analytics to formulate and form a football team is pretty dumb. As a statistical rule, what gives them value is an increase and exponential inflation of the sample size to actually develop a trend. What kind of sample is 16 events (games)?

It's stupid. I see a guy push advanced metrics to formulate his football opinion, I tune them out immediately.