Interesting Situational Stats about our WRs/TEs (compared to Atlanta for fun)

Why did you compare them to Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez??

Well *gosh* phinsational, 28 targets in the RZ is a lot more than 9....

What that tells me is our offense is not very powerful as we have far fewer RZ trips.

And then there are "targets" like last week where THill led Hartline to much and out of bounds, this is one of the problems with stat monkery.

"Anonymous wrote:

Why did you compare them to Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez??

b/c it was a 4 hour project, so I was only picking one team's players as a comparison..... and because Julio, Roddy, and Gonzalez provide a nice baseline as there's no arguing about their talent level..... and b/c this forum seems to love doing Atlanta-Miami comparisons. :lol:

I was initially only going to do Miami b/c it was time consuming, so Atlanta is basically a bonus.

I don't think that's a good comparison. You should have compared vs a team with a rookie QB.

"Anonymous wrote:

I don't think that's a good comparison. You should have compared vs a team with a rookie QB.

I don't what happens is we tend to run the ball for Td's as it protects THill.

Saw the same thing with Henne and imo, one of the mistakes Sherman has made this year.

"padre31 wrote:

Well *gosh* phinsational, 28 targets in the RZ is a lot more than 9....

What that tells me is our offense is not very powerful as we have far fewer RZ trips.

And then there are "targets" like last week where THill led Hartline to much and out of bounds, this is one of the problems with stat monkery.

look closer.
Over the first 60 yards Hart & Bess had MORE targets (155 vs 134). As we cross the 50, the stats start changing the closer we get to the endzone and the greater the field shrinks.

Once we hit the 40, they've obviously declining (45 vs 67).... which isn't quite as discrepant as what happens the next 20 yards.

From the 39 to the 20 they drop drastically (9 vs 28)

"Aqua4Ever04 wrote:

Nine redzone targets for our top two receivers and TWO catches.

That tells you all you need to know about our offense. We lack play makers on the perimeters. TWO catches. Wow.

Eh, if that is tripled and they had the # of chances the Falcons Wr had we had 7 (?)

Bottom line is, the offense is simply not that powerful with Tannehill leading it, keep in mind this is essentially the same personal as we had last yr w/MMoore.

Basically, Tannehill is not very productive.

"phinsational wrote:

look closer.
Over the first 60 yards Hart & Bess had MORE targets (155 vs 134). As we cross the 50, the stats start changing the closer we get to the endzone and the greater the field shrinks.

Once we hit the 40, they've obviously declining (45 vs 67).... which isn't quite as discrepant as what happens the next 20 yards.

From the 39 to the 20 they drop drastically (9 vs 28)

Well gee, they did not lose effectiveness in the last 20 yds, the guy tossing them the ball is just not very good at it.

If you look at the Te #'s, they are similar, Fasano and Co did not suddenly create "open windows" in the RZ, the plain fact is our RZ chances are a little less than half of the Falcons chances 20 v 41 total targets

IE, we don't get to the RZ very often to begin with..even with Hartline and Co being statistically effective outside of the RZ.

"Anonymous wrote:

I don't think that's a good comparison. You should have compared vs a team with a rookie QB.

That's too bad.
I'm not looking for excuses to rationalize or coddle their production.
I wanted to see what it looks like verse an all around talented pass catching corps. Period.
Gonzalez is having almost as much production with a 5th year Ryan as rookie Ryan.... and Roddy is having a less statistically productive year than when Ryan was a rookie. I could also argue that young Julio Jones is only in his 2nd year whereas the veterans Bess & Hartline are in year 5 & 4.

For fun, let's double our rates:

11/20=55%
2/9=22%

Double to say 40 targets"

55% target rate and a 27% Td rate on 40 targets=22 catches 6 additional Td's
2 additional for the Wr's

Now if we look at the supposed "40 yds and out" were explosive plays are supposedly more important, well look, our group is competitive with the Falcons as well.

thanks for putting this together, interesting stuff-- one request/comment though. on your last table, can you order the players the same way you did on the first two? I got to that one and read it all wrong the first time because they were in a different order.

Other than that, good stuff! :up:

"padre31 wrote:

Eh, if that is tripled and they had the # of chances the Falcons Wr had we had 7 (?)

Bottom line is, the offense is simply not that powerful with Tannehill leading it, keep in mind this is essentially the same personal as we had last yr w/MMoore.

Basically, Tannehill is not very productive.

Why would we triple that number when their production per attempt is terrible?
There's a reason they get less targets than Fasano, Clay, and Moore combined.
11% TD rate and 22% catch rate. Triple that and it's still 11% & 22%. That'll make a receiver get less targets.

"padre31 wrote:

Well gee, they did not lose effectiveness in the last 20 yds, the guy tossing them the ball is just not very good at it.

If you look at the Te #'s, they are similar, Fasano and Co did not suddenly create "open windows" in the RZ, the plain fact is our RZ chances are a little less than half of the Falcons chances 20 v 41 total targets

IE, we don't get to the RZ very often to begin with..even with Hartline and Co being statistically effective outside of the RZ.

Really? Then why does Tannehill have no problem getting it to Clay, Fasano, and Moore? 8 of 11 for 3 TDs? That's pretty efficient.

"phinsational wrote:

That's too bad.
I'm not looking for excuses to rationalize or coddle their production.
I wanted to see what it looks like verse an all around talented pass catching corps. Period.
Gonzalez is having almost as much production with a 5th year Ryan as rookie Ryan.... and Roddy is having a less statistically productive year than when Ryan was a rookie. I could also argue that young Julio Jones is only in his 2nd year whereas the veterans Bess & Hartline are in year 5 & 4.

You're comparing a passing attack with a top 10 QB that is borderline elite vs a passing attack with a rookie QB. You didn't need to do this to see their receiving corps would have superior numbers. It's a waste of time. A better comparison would be between teams that have rookie QBs. It's an even playing field. You should have done a comparison vs Cleveland, Indianapolis, Washington, or Seattle.

"padre31 wrote:

For fun, let's double our rates:

11/20=55%
2/9=22%

Double to say 40 targets"

55% target rate and a 27% Td rate on 40 targets=22 catches 6 additional Td's
2 additional for the Wr's

Now if we look at the supposed "40 yds and out" were explosive plays are supposedly more important, well look, our group is competitive with the Falcons as well.

No one is saying they're not good at moving the chains. They're obviously good at it. That's where the bulk of their stats come from. It's when the field shrinks is when they have difficulty b/c it's obvious they lack desired physical traits in that area as we get closer to the EZ.

This shows you that we could be not only efficient yardage wise at getting to the 40 but could see a big bump in production if we're not reliant upon them as our primary starters as we cross the 40. These stats tell me that they could do a great job of complimenting a starter or two with playmaking ability & scoring potential b/c Hartline & Bess can help make sure the chains are efficiently moving while the playmakers offer both the random big play & increased efficiency in the redzone.

"pennphinfan wrote:

thanks for putting this together, interesting stuff-- one request/comment though. on your last table, can you order the players the same way you did on the first two? I got to that one and read it all wrong the first time because they were in a different order.

Other than that, good stuff! :up:

That would take about 5 minutes of cutting and pasting. lol. On the last 2 rows I was tired and originally wasn't gonna include the TEs (and Moore).... but then I pushed through it. :lol:

"phinsational wrote:

Really? Then why does Tannehill have no problem getting it to Clay, Fasano, and Moore? 8 of 11 for 3 TDs? That's pretty efficient.

Why would you toss Marlon Moore in there?

Anywho, this is one of the problems with statisical comparisons, it assumes all things being equal, unless the Dolphins had the most efficient passing attack since John Hadl, less trips is of course going to mean less scores.

That is one of the problems with ones approach, half the trips, how do you suppose they'd stack up other than at least half of the production?

Yet outside of the RZ, everything is comparable, which tells me the receivers did not suddenly suck in the RZ, it's the guy tossing the football having issues.

"Anonymous wrote:

You're comparing a passing attack with a top 10 QB that is borderline elite vs a passing attack with a rookie QB. You didn't need to do this to see their receiving corps would have superior numbers. It's a waste of time. A better comparison would be between teams that have rookie QBs. It's an even playing field. You should have done a comparison vs Cleveland, Indianapolis, Washington, or Seattle.

I'm not comparing passing attacks nor anything else. It was only meant to show OUR stats at the 3/4 way mark, not to show that their inferior to anyone else. Then for the heck of it I threw in Atlanta for fun. If you have a problem with it and don't want to read some of our situational stats, then dont.... and if you don't like the team I added in for fun, then crunch your own numbers to add to it. And stop looking a gifthorse in the mouth. You're lucky I added in any team. Would you have preferred I only stopped at Miami like I originally intended?

"phinsational wrote:

I'm not comparing passing attacks nor anything else. It was only meant to show OUR stats at the 3/4 way mark, not to show that their inferior to anyone else. Then for the heck of it I threw in Atlanta for fun. If you have a problem with it, that's too bad, then crunch your own numbers to add to it. And stop looking a gifthorse in the mouth. You're lucky I added in any team as a baseline. Would you have preferred I only stopped at Miami like I originally intended?

No stopping at Miami wouldn't have made this better. Using Atlanta as a comparison isn't good, though.

Also, I agree with Padre on the subject matter. It's not the receivers. It's the QB.

"padre31 wrote:

Why would you toss Marlon Moore in there?

Anywho, this is one of the problems with statisical comparisons, it assumes all things being equal, unless the Dolphins had the most efficient passing attack since John Hadl, less trips is of course going to mean less scores.

That is one of the problems with ones approach, half the trips, how do you suppose they'd stack up other than at least half of the production?

Why not? It shows that a TE, hback, and WR who rarely sees the field have more targets & TDs than our primary 2 receivers.

Yet outside of the RZ, everything is comparable, which tells me the receivers did not suddenly suck in the RZ, it's the guy tossing the football having issues.

Then WADR you don't understand the situational aspect of the game. Inside the RZ deals with scoring, not moving the chains.... and the redzone deals with a short field where special talent skills become important. I know you've used the term redzone target before Pads so don't choose now as the time to start playing silly. :p

..... and again, the guy tossing the football didn't have a problem with players not named Hartline & Bess. See how that works.

"Anonymous wrote:

No stopping at Miami wouldn't have made this better. Using Atlanta as a comparison isn't good, though.

Also, I agree with Padre on the subject matter. It's not the receivers. It's the QB.

Then how do you explain everyone not named Hartline & Bess having no problems with the QB inside the RZ? 8 of 11 with 3 TDs? That's outstanding considering who they are.

Are Hartline or Bess going over DBs on fades?.... running over defenders on quick passes/slants like we saw from Matthews in preseason? I suppose those physical limitation issues are the QB's fault?

"phinsational wrote:

Why would we triple that number when their production per attempt is terrible?
There's a reason they get less targets than Fasano, Clay, and Moore combined.
11% TD rate and 22% catch rate. Triple that and it's still 11% & 22%. That'll make a receiver get less targets.

B/c the way football works, on the field, if your Te group was more productive the Wr group then receives their chances.

However, if we recall, BLine was open in the back of the EZ last week, in the RZ, and THill made a poor throw

DBess literally had to tap dance the sideline and get a non Td call overturned, to get a Td b/c THill's throw was that poor the week before.

Noticing a theme here?

"Aqua4Ever04 wrote:

Yeah, the same personel minus a top five receiver.

Heard the same bull**** when henne was the Qb and guess what?

Added Marshall, pretty much the same Qb.

At what point do Dolphins fans realize it's the Qb who drives RZ production in the passing game?

Point being Aqua, if you look at his stats with an unbiased eye, you can see they are very effective, when the field shrinks they do not suddenly become bad players, the Qb is not making it work with them.

Until the Qb can drive the car it does not matter what rims you put on it.