If the draft goes relatively similar to the many mocks (which it usually doesn't), is #14 a bad spot for Miami? Looking at the different needs:
WR (Amari Cooper and Kevin White will be gone - possibly even DeVante Parker, who may or may not be worth that #14 selection depending on who you ask; after those three, there are the likes of Jaelan Strong and DGB. Both players would be "reaches" at that point)
LB (Top prospect to many around here seems to be Eric Kendricks, but I've seen him outside of the first round in many mocks. No other linebacker prospect is worthy of the 14th selection)
CB (I don't see the Dolphins taking a corner in round one considering the youth at the position and the complexity of the scheme for a corner; a rookie will most likely not make a big impact year one. With his combine performance, Trae Waynes is most likely gone before 14. The other corners are just decent, nothing spectacular)
OG (Offensive line looks like it will provide the most value, but does Miami want to invest another high selection in the offensive line? It seems content with Turner and Thomas (unless that's a smokescreen). Prospects such as La'el Collins would make sense)
While maybe a luxury, a RB like Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley (depending on the medical) would be interesting.
Do you think it would be wisest to move from 14, whether it be up or down?
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I actually think we're in a good spot because you can justify trading up if you feel someone won't fall, staying put if someone falls, or trading down to get an extra 2nd and still pick a really good player. Lots of flexibility with good expected outcomes at each. The only thing that hurts us is not having that 3rd anymore because that's the ideal pick to use for a trade-up in this draft.
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I think there's nothing inherently wrong with #14 in this draft. Even by conservative estimates you're going to have a handful of first round graded guys left.
I do think #14 is a bit iffy for the Dolphins, though. I think there's a good chance the best players available are at inconvient positions or not great scheme fits.
You may be in a good area to try and trade downEverFin, Bpk, Ducken and 1 other person like this. -
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If you don't get Cooper, White, or Waynes then trade down. One of DGB, Strong, Kendricks, and Collins will still be there. All big needs for the team. You can't lose.
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It's also a good spot to trade down if there isn't value there. If one of the top teams needs that last liece(rb, ol, etc), they may be willing to trade picks to move up. The cost to move up goes down quite a bit after the top 10. If we could move back 5-10 spots and pick up a 2nd/3rd rounder, I'd be down with that.
Tin Indian likes this. -
I would be interested in Parker, Waynes or even Todd Gurley at 14. If none of those guys are there I would try to trade back later in the first, pick that 3rd rounder back up if possible, and then grab one of the other top receivers. Then you could use that newly reacquired 3rd spot on a guard.
I expect that one of those three guys will still be there though.LiferYank and skippysphins like this. -
Didn't Ireland only trade down in the first round once?Clark Kent likes this. -
Trading down is a great idea in theory, but Miami will need a trade-down partner. What prospect available at 14 will enthrall a team so that it will want to trade up? Only guy I can think of would be Gurley.
Fin4Ever and DolphinGreg like this. -
There will still be some playmakers available on offense .If a lot of the better WRs are picked ahead of us we will still get a chance at Gurley if we had a mind to.I think a top end RB would do wonders for this offense .
We should still have a top end OG to pick at that spot.Also a good LB .All three positions of need.
This looks to be a fairly deep draft . -
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I love this . I get it but wtf -
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UCF receiver Breshad Perriman http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-s...-a-sub-4-2-second-40-yard-dash-184248728.html
Undisputed and Fin4Ever like this. -
Wake, Suh, Shelton, and Vernon? Opposing QBs and RBs will have a heart attack. But I would still rather get a WR or MLB in the 1st round.
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Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member
Its a bad spot, but you have to HIT on it when you do pick... That's where this team has generally failed in the last 10 yrs with it's first round picks... -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_NFL_draft
and just replace the "2000" in the URL with a different year, and look at the pro-bowlers in the draft (they're colored tan, or whatever that color is). You'll see that on average you probably have ~50% chance of picking a pro-bowler in the mid-teens. Picking in the low 20's is still pretty good, but once you get to the late 20's you see a real drop-off. That's just eyeballing things, but #14 doesn't look that bad historically (oh, and obviously you don't want to use the most recent drafts because it takes time for a rook to develop).Fin4Ever, danmarino, CashInFist and 1 other person like this. -
Gurley is a tough one for me. While I love his talent and do believe he can transcend an offense, his injury history frightens me. It's not just his ACL. It was always something with him. I live near Athens, so I'm very familiar with Gurley and his days at UGA. He was a straight menace - when he was on the field. -
Most thought the giants reached for a WR @ #12 last year...... Beckham was not considered to be on the same level as Watkins or Evans. This year... Parker, Strong, DGB could all possibly wind up being as good or better than the two Wrs ranked ahead of them.
ASUFinFan likes this. -
Aqua4Ever04, Fin4Ever and Bpk like this.
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Oh wait, that's us.jdang307, Fin4Ever and CashInFist like this. -
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This is the hype machine running at it's finest. -
Gordon may be a slightly worse prospect, but he's still an elite one who doesn't come with the injury concerns. I'll take the guy I can trust every week. -
In his freshman year, he missed one game. Sophomore year, he missed three games. Junior year, he missed five games (granted, a few because of the suspension). It's not just games he has missed, though. Gurley constantly deals with small, nagging injuries throughout contests - he's always banged up in some way. Just for example, in the Auburn game (the first game back from suspension), just a few minutes into the game he already fell on his elbow and injured it. Now, he has to wear a huge sleeve. Later, he goes on to tear his ACL that game.Fin D likes this. -
Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are very different players, in my opinion--both deserving of high picks. I'll put it simply for anyone who hasn't watched them play: Gurley is the complete back while Gordon is the home-run threat.
Gurley would be the safe pick if it weren't for his past injuries and his tendency to miss games. I'm a Clemson guy and it was the same story with CJ Spiller, who is a very different RB, but one also cursed with the injury bug. I hated seeing Spiller (and now Watkins, too!) go to a division rival but Spiller will always have injury concerns and to be honest, I always thought he'd be a role-player after college, the likes of Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles.
The name you most consistently hear associated with Melvin Gordon's NFL future--and this is a best case scenario obviously--is Jamaal Charles. It's not just me who thinks that, it's basically everyone: ( http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...-who-is-best-nfl-comparison-for-melvin-gordon ). I think the Andre Ellington comparison is interesting. Again, I'm a Clemson guy so I watched a ton of Andre Ellington and I'm honestly surprised he's done so well at the NFL level. I thought he would be a bit too small. Gordon is bigger and to me, more of a home-run threat. I would think that Gordon could consistently match Ellington's production with the Jamaal Charles comparison being a bit too favorable.
The biggest knock on Melvin Gordon is that he might be an average RB with great college speed. When you go back and look at why Gordon rushed for so many yards (and stayed healthy doing it), you see very quickly that he had a TON of experience in front of him. His O-line had nearly 200 combined starts by the end of the season and just dominated a lot of lesser competition. Gordon was routinely running through gaping holes and getting to the 2nd and 3rd level of defenses before being touched. He got so many yards largely because he was running over smaller DBs and he stayed healthy because he didn't get a lot of physical contact compared with a guy like Todd Gurley.
Now, if Miami acquired the next Jamaal Charles I don't think anyone would complain but if we're more realistic, it doesn't make a ton of sense to add a guy like Andre Ellington when we have Lamar Miller already on the roster and the team is really more in need of a big, physical RB that can dominate during the 1st half of games and soften up the defense so that a Lamar Miller or Andre Ellington type of RB could start gashing the defense late in games. If the Dolphins did go with Melvin Gordon, it would be entirely based upon value because it wouldn't make much sense based on need. Even after drafting Melvin Gordon in the 1st round, the Dolphins would still need to go get a bruiser after the draft. Think of what the Giants had with Brandon Jacobs and how integral he was to their Super Bowl success. Think of what the Patriots have done with LaGarette Blount.
But, if you're curious as to why Todd Gurley is considered the better RB, look at the comparisons ( http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...who-does-georgia-rb-todd-gurley-remind-you-of ). On paper (assuming he's healthy) Todd Gurley is the prototypical 1st round RB. He's the guy you dream of getting.
If you believe he can stay healthy, you draft Todd Gurley in a heartbeat. If you don't, you pray that history proves you right and that you're not passing up on the league's next top RB and a guy who would've been perfect for your team.
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