This is a "sequel" to this thread:
http://www.thephins.com/forums/showthread.php?74021-Is-Ryan-Tannehill-Going-to-Become-a-Franchise-QB
I gathered some more data on this, focusing specifically on the percentage of "very good" starts rookie QBs have made since 2004, in comparison to their percentages of "poor" starts.
I defined a "very good" start as a start with a QB rating of 90 or higher, and a "poor" start as one with a QB rating of 69 or lower. Starts with QB ratings between 70 and 89 were not used in any of these analyses.
Here are the data:
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 263"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]QB
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]%age of Very Good Starts
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]%age of Poor Starts
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Franchise QB?
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Career QB Rating
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Tannehill
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]47
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]47
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Luck
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]31
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]25
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Wilson
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]69
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]19
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]RGIII
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]67
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Weeden
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]27
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]40
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Newton
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]44
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]25
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]86.2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Dalton
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]44
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]38
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]87.4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Bradford
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]25
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]38
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]82.6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Palmer
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]38
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]46
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]86.2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Roethlisberger
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]62
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]23
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]92.7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Ryan
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]56
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]31
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]90.9
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Flacco
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]44
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]31
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]86.3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Ponder
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]60
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]81.2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Stafford
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]20
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]60
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]82.8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Gabbert
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]No
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]70.2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Sanchez
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]27
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]33
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]No
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]71.7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Young
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]15
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]46
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]No
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]74.4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Leinart
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]36
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]36
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]No
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]70.2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Freeman
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]22
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]56
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]79.8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Gradkowski
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]27
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]64
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]No
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]65.8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Orton
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]7
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]67
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]No
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]79.7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Edwards
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]22
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]55
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]No
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]75.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Clausen
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]20
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]60
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]No
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]58.4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Walter
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]0
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]75
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]No
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]52.6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white, align: center"]Smith
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]14
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]86
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]No
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]79.1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 94, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]EManning
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]29
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"]71
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]82.7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The thinking here is that a QB's future "ceiling" may be revealed in how often he's able to perform at a very high level during his rookie season, whereas his future quality of play overall may be revealed in how he minimizes poor play as a rookie while maximizing very good play.
As it turns out, the correlation between the percentage of very good starts as a rookie and career QB rating is 0.70, which is strong.
The correlation between the percentage of poor starts as a rookie and career QB rating is -0.37 and is comparatively weak, and that variable will therefore not be used as a basis for any analyses in this thread.
What the data also reveal is that the average percentage of very good starts among the future "franchise QBs" is 37.6, with a standard deviation of 13.78.
The average percentage of very good starts among the future "non-franchise QBs" is 19.7, with a standard deviation of 9.63.
Ryan Tannehill's percentage of very good starts (47%) places him within a standard deviation above the average of the future "franchise QBs," while also placing him nearly three (!) standard deviations above the mean of the "non-franchise QBs."
So, the take-home message is that Ryan Tannehill, in terms of his percentage of very good starts (QB rating of 90 or higher), which was 47%, played much more like a future franchise QB as a rookie than a future non-franchise QB.
I think this lends support to people's perceptions that Ryan Tannehill appears to have the makings of a franchise QB based on how often he was able to play at a high level this year. :up:
EDIT: Chad Henne in 2009, in his second season in the NFL (first as a starter), following far more college starts at QB, had a 90 QB rating or higher in ony 23% of his starts, which puts him less than a standard deviation above the mean of the non-franchise QBs, and more than a standard deviation below the mean of the "franchise" QBs.
In other words, with regard to this particular stat, Tannehill played like a future franchise QB this year, whereas Chad Henne in 2009 played like a non-future franchise QB.
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Now imagine if he had WR's that could make plays, had speed or could break tackles.. Or an offensive line that blocked consistently. Or a half decent TE and running game.
:DDucken and NolesNPhinsFan like this. -
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How is Josh Freeman a franchise QB?
Have you seen this:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/07/bucs-have-no-plans-to-extend-josh-freemans-contract/
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My answer, part 3 or any other part. NO.
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By current day NFL standards ? The kid is a GREAT backup.
Kid completes a pass and people start wacking their monkey. He was nothing special at ATM and is nothing special in the NFL other then he has a string bean wife that makes some weird men go nuts.
Ryan Tannehill in 2013 will be Ryan Tannehill of 2012 and 2011. Nothing more then a WR that changed postions with a has been college head coach that is mule headed and sold a tale to a complacent man from the Midwest that still honors the fact that Mike Sherman was his coach, last century. -
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No one knows if Ryan Tannehill will be a franchise QB. There's a number of variables at play that we can't know. The answer to this thread is, we all hope so.
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SIGH, such is the mentality of many people. Let me see, I guess I missed Ryan Tannehill rocking the NFL this year. LOL. AT BEST, he was serviceable, at best. The NFL has tookie QBs that threw more TDs with their left arm then Tannehill did with his right arm.
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Put up how many touchdowns Ryan Tannehill has throw compared to everyone else. Beyond that, all the rest is pure complete window dressing. Dare you to do that. -
Firesole likes this.
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Guest
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Thanks, Shou, for the time you took.
Save the metrics, etc., I am just still not sold on Tannehill up to this point. I think he is a bright kid who could become solid in the future, but dare I say, I do not see a franchise QB yet.
I think it is great to have statistical analyses to support an idea about a particular player. If players were robots, it would be a simple "plug and play" option where players and the game play out like pieces on a chess board; coaching would be the most important aspect. Yet, the human factor always plays its role, which makes the NFL draft such a difficult thing.
One simply cannot measure those innate qualities like dedication, determination, leadership, etc. And until those qualities can be measured, a player's future play cannot necessarily be determined by numbers on a spreadsheet.
And let us be honest: Tannehill was taken higher in the draft simply due to needs of the team, his position, and some nudging of his former coaching staff. There were definitely other factors involved, but so far, I see Chad Henne with less of an arm.
Now, let me repeat, we have only had the guy one year, so let's not get our panties in a wad for my comparison to Henne. But let's check out the comparisons:
- Difficulty in completing deep throws
- Unflappable
- Strong on rollout throws
- Completes difficult throws in difficult windows; misses on some easy targets
- Strong-armed (Henne's being one of the strongest I have seen in a long while)
- Tough to score in the Red-Zone
- Balls batted down at the LOS
Both were/are in a difficult situation for their own various reasons, but I get the feeling the team has not quite rallied around Tannehill, very much like Henne. Both likeable, but are they leaders?
For rookie comparison, Luck and RGIII are certainly. Russell Wilson is one, and yet, he had to prove it given his draft status and adequate stature. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees......the teams rally around them. It took a Super Bowl win for Eli Manning to become "Easy E", but the team certainly goes with him. As does a Phillip Rivers led team.
Leadership is one of those innate qualities that simply cannot be measured. The physical and mental tools are there with Tannehill and Henne. Why haven't either succeeded? I think until he has FULL support of his teammates (not the cliche BS said in media interviews), he might not be successful. I also believe he plays "safe ball". He does not trust what might be called instincts, and maybe to a point, does not trust his WRs (save Hartline) much like did Henne. Imagine if Eli Manning did not trust his receivers? We certainly would not be singing his praises. Could it be from coaching? Safe coaching? The kind of "minimize our mistakes" kind of coaching?
Who knows? But I can safely say (without the numbers) that Tannehill does not give those impressions of a "franchise QB" from his body of work. I certainly hope I am wrong. -
Vengeful Odin and Anonymous like this.
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If you bash a QB that had a 76.1 QB rating, had a 12/13 TD/int ratio and led the team to 17.2 ppg then you ARE a troll and NOT a Dolphin fan.
However, if you say it is everyone else's fault and bash a 3-time pro bowl LT, a 1,083 yard WR who averaged 14.6 ypc, and a 986 yard RB who averaged 4.3 ypc then you ARE a Dolphin fan and NOT a troll.
Simple really...get on board!Serpico Jones likes this. -
Who knows? But I can safely say (without the numbers) that Tannehill does not give those impressions of a "franchise QB" from his body of work. I certainly hope I am wrong.
So since it is not based on empirical evidence, what is your conclusion is based on? -
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Compared to the rookie QBs since 2004, Ryan Tannehill threw a TD every 39.92 pass attempts, whereas the average rookie QB since 2004 threw a TD every 39.82 pass attempts.
Is that the finding you were looking for?Ducken likes this. -
By the numbers, Tannehill did better in his rookie season, following far fewer college starts at quarterback, than Henne did in his second season (his first as a starter), with regard to the three variables that I'm aware of that most strongly predict future play at QB: 1) QB rating, 2) WPA (Win Probability Added), and 3) percentage of starts with a QB rating of 90 or higher.
In fact 47% of Tannehill's starts as a rookie featured a QB rating of 90 or higher, whereas only 23% of Henne's starts in 2009 did, and again, that was in Henne's second NFL season.
Moreover, you could easily argue that Tannehill played better as a rookie than Henne did even this year, for Jacksonville.
I'd say all of the above pretty well puts that comparison to rest.cuchulainn likes this. -
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Don't get the bashing. Every Fin fan should be hoping the kid develops into the best Dolphin QB since Danny. And I didn't see Shou proclaiming him as the second coming or the best QB or anything else. He was just experimenting with the data.
Some of you are attacking him like you hope he fails. As for the team record, and wins-loses, Carpenter hits 2 FGs earlier in the season and we are 9-7. The rookie QB put him in position to win those games. Carp missed them and we lost. That "gift" against the Seahags was karma as they got a "gift" against the Packers... -
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If it means led the team to victory when tied or behind in the 4th quarter then I guess Luck willed his team 7 times, Wilson did it 4 times, RGIII did 3 times, and Weeden and Foles did it once like Tannehill. I don't think that shows Tannehill is a closer as of yet.
Tannehill was 0 for his last 6 on the drive that led Miami to tying the game with the Jets to send it to OT. Miami got into FG range on a run by Thomas and a PI call when the pass didn't look to be on target.
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