It’s a tight race

How is Baltimore below 7-3 teams?

"Rick 1966 wrote:

How is Baltimore below 7-3 teams?

They're not. This is the official version:
https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture

1. Chiefs 7-2
2. Ravens 8-3
3. Jaguars 7-3
4. Dolphins 7-3
5. Browns 7-3
6. Texans 6-4
7. Steelers 6-4

I love the fact the Bills are right now out of the playoffs ha!

As I said weeks ago a 10-7 team will probably miss the playoffs in the afc this year. Probably the Dolphins.

"Destroyer wrote:

As I said weeks ago a 10-7 team will probably miss the playoffs in the afc this year. Probably the Dolphins.

Really impressed how you stick to your guns on that. I remember you wanted to bet real money in a game thread. I'd bet you real money on whether the Dolphins make the playoffs or not if you're interested. Just straight up, even odds, make the playoffs or not make the playoffs. Interested? We can continue by PM if you want.

"Destroyer wrote:

As I said weeks ago a 10-7 team will probably miss the playoffs in the afc this year. Probably the Dolphins.

So, your opinion is that somehow, the Bills will beat Philadelphia, KC or Dallas as well as beating us at home? And that we will lose to Washington or TN or the Jets as well as to the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills?

"cbrad wrote:

Really impressed how you stick to your guns on that. I remember you wanted to bet real money in a game thread. I'd bet you real money on whether the Dolphins make the playoffs or not if you're interested. Just straight up, even odds, make the playoffs or not make the playoffs. Interested? We can continue by PM if you want.

I want some of that action. Put up or shut up.

"Destroyer wrote:

As I said weeks ago a 10-7 team will probably miss the playoffs in the afc this year. Probably the Dolphins.

Do you boo the sun when it comes up in the morning

"Vinny Fins wrote:

Do you boo the sun when it comes up in the morning

I love this. It put a smile on my face.

"Destroyer wrote:

As I said weeks ago a 10-7 team will probably miss the playoffs in the afc this year. Probably the Dolphins.

Usually you disappear for a few days when the Dolphins win. Go away.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

Usually you disappear for a few days when the Dolphins win. Go away.

We’re trying to move away from this.

"Destroyer wrote:

As I said weeks ago a 10-7 team will probably miss the playoffs in the afc this year. Probably the Dolphins.

Lol

"Destroyer wrote:

As I said weeks ago a 10-7 team will probably miss the playoffs in the afc this year. Probably the Dolphins.

I'd really like you to defend this. I'm not denying the possibility that the Dolphins could go 10-7, but please defend to me the idea that somehow, Buffalo is going to do better than 9-8 when they have games remaining against the Eagles, Cowboys and Chiefs as well as us.

Miami currently has an 89% chance of making the playoffs, and an 83% chance of winning the division (9% 1 seed, 17% 2 seed, 25% 3 seed, 33% 4 seed). They also have a 6% chance of taking a wild card seed and an 11% chance of missing the playoffs entirely.

Meanwhile, the Bills have around a 12% chance of winning the division, and an 83% chance of missing the playoffs entirely. The Jets have around a 6% chance of winning the division, and a 91% chance of missing the playoffs. The Pats have a greater than 99% chance of missing the playoffs.

If anyone wants to wager that Miami misses the playoffs, I'll take that bet.

Don’t count your chickens before they roosts.

"Finatik wrote:

Don’t count your chickens before they roosts.

"KeyFin wrote:

Miami currently has an 89% chance of making the playoffs (9% 1 seed, 17% 2 seed, 25% 3 seed, 33% 4 seed), and an 83% chance of winning the division (with a 6% chance of taking any of the wildcard spots).

Meanwhile, the Bills have around a 12% chance of winning the division, and an 83% chance of missing the playoffs entirely. The Jets have around a 6% chance of winning the division, and a 91% chance of missing the playoffs. The Pats have a greater than 99% chance of missing the playoffs.

If anyone wants to wager that Miami misses the playoffs, I'll take that bet.

That's close to Vegas odds prior to today's game, which was between -1000 and -1250 for the Dolphins to make the playoffs. After today those odds have got to go way up. According to this simulator it's 97% chance of making the playoffs and 90% chance to win the division:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

That should put the odds closer to -3000, i.e., bet $3000 to win $100. That's why I told Destroyer I'd take even odds lol. You'd really have to be foolish to accept a bet like that, but if someone wants to I'll go up to $1000 for an even odds wager.

"cbrad wrote:

That's close to Vegas odds prior to today's game, which was between -1000 and -1250 for the Dolphins to make the playoffs. After today those odds have got to go way up. According to this simulator it's 97% chance of making the playoffs and 90% chance to win the division:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

That should put the odds closer to -3000, i.e., bet $3000 to win $100. That's why I told Destroyer I'd take even odds lol. You'd really have to be foolish to accept a bet like that, but if someone wants to I'll go up to $1000 for an even odds wager.

I couldn't find anything on a reputable site, so I grabbed it from a random one that had current standings. You could be right- I was definitely too lazy at 1 AM to do the math myself.